WildBill
2
Kind of ran through the very preliminary thinking process on this one and wow its quite a challenging year to come.
First off the Chiefs will have to overcome the SB loser syndrome, which has been quite negative for every team not named the Patriots over the last decade. I could see them slowly falling back to the pack, the Mahomes contract will start to bite and really they are a handful of really elite players and a lot of meh. Imagine if the Niners didn't choke away the fourth quarter, they could have been this much talked about team that won no titles.
The Bucs will be interesting because there are some improving pieces that suggest a repeat isn't out of the question. That defense which looked decent coming into the year really became something else in the playoffs. That's a good trajectory, but needs proof of consistency especially with a target on them. On offense, let's see what happens to Brady with another hard year on his body. At 10-1 its not a bad price on them, they could keep the run that they started in November going for awhile. Still NFL futures have too much time to settle and too much house edge to bet 10-1 shots in February.
For the rest of the contenders, Saints without a QB and Packers looking disjointed as an organization suggest no real clear successor in the NFC. Maybe the Rams but I'll have to see that to believe it. I think they showed a lot more than expected this year but really question the depth and talent there as all they proved to me is they can handle a Seahawk team they should know well. On the AFC side I don't know if Lamar is a SB winning QB and I have my doubts on Allen as well. Both are deservedly right there at the top of the odds, but not really enticing enough to bet them. Lets see if the Colts can get a QB and if the Chargers can get a clue from a new coaching staff, but both are intriguing at a price. I'm thinking 30-1 on the Chargers is worth a shot, but won't pull the trigger on them until close to season start because this organization is always cursed with injuries.
As for the rest of the field, this is where I will usually take an offseason flyer. Mea culpa, I admit I was on the Eagles train after last season. Thought if they could get a WR and some health that was an elite team brewing. This year's team I'm going to jinx is the Falcons. They looked a lot better than a 4-12 team to me, sure helped to get rid of a terrible coach. I like the guy they got, with the weapons at his disposal I think its not crazy to think they have 9-10 win potential. They just have to not blow games in epic fashion and figure out how to get enough offense to beat QB-challenged Saints teams and that's 4 more wins. They get the easy schedule this season from fourth place and if Brady falls off and Tampa gets some injuries they might sneak in to win the division. At 70-1 odds at Circa this is worth a small wager.
First off the Chiefs will have to overcome the SB loser syndrome, which has been quite negative for every team not named the Patriots over the last decade. I could see them slowly falling back to the pack, the Mahomes contract will start to bite and really they are a handful of really elite players and a lot of meh. Imagine if the Niners didn't choke away the fourth quarter, they could have been this much talked about team that won no titles.
The Bucs will be interesting because there are some improving pieces that suggest a repeat isn't out of the question. That defense which looked decent coming into the year really became something else in the playoffs. That's a good trajectory, but needs proof of consistency especially with a target on them. On offense, let's see what happens to Brady with another hard year on his body. At 10-1 its not a bad price on them, they could keep the run that they started in November going for awhile. Still NFL futures have too much time to settle and too much house edge to bet 10-1 shots in February.
For the rest of the contenders, Saints without a QB and Packers looking disjointed as an organization suggest no real clear successor in the NFC. Maybe the Rams but I'll have to see that to believe it. I think they showed a lot more than expected this year but really question the depth and talent there as all they proved to me is they can handle a Seahawk team they should know well. On the AFC side I don't know if Lamar is a SB winning QB and I have my doubts on Allen as well. Both are deservedly right there at the top of the odds, but not really enticing enough to bet them. Lets see if the Colts can get a QB and if the Chargers can get a clue from a new coaching staff, but both are intriguing at a price. I'm thinking 30-1 on the Chargers is worth a shot, but won't pull the trigger on them until close to season start because this organization is always cursed with injuries.
As for the rest of the field, this is where I will usually take an offseason flyer. Mea culpa, I admit I was on the Eagles train after last season. Thought if they could get a WR and some health that was an elite team brewing. This year's team I'm going to jinx is the Falcons. They looked a lot better than a 4-12 team to me, sure helped to get rid of a terrible coach. I like the guy they got, with the weapons at his disposal I think its not crazy to think they have 9-10 win potential. They just have to not blow games in epic fashion and figure out how to get enough offense to beat QB-challenged Saints teams and that's 4 more wins. They get the easy schedule this season from fourth place and if Brady falls off and Tampa gets some injuries they might sneak in to win the division. At 70-1 odds at Circa this is worth a small wager.
