yeah i think its crazy too...but just i have a question for you...first of all there is this really great FFL website called antsports.com (i think thats it) and you can do mock drafts ( i have 9 going right now) and you should check it out...however my question is that in one of my mock drafts i got Clinton Portis with the fourth pick, and then somehow stole Peyton Manning with 13th pick (only an 8 team draft)...and then my third round pick came along and i had a choice between Dominick Davis and Julius Jones....it was a tough one...and i ended up going with davis..do you agree with my decision?
NFL Fantasy Football News/Articles - ESPN Insider 4 New Articles Added 11/6/06
- Thread starter Hache Man
- Start date
yeah i think its crazy too...but just i have a question for you...first of all there is this really great FFL website called antsports.com (i think thats it) and you can do mock drafts ( i have 9 going right now) and you should check it out...however my question is that in one of my mock drafts i got Clinton Portis with the fourth pick, and then somehow stole Peyton Manning with 13th pick (only an 8 team draft)...and then my third round pick came along and i had a choice between Dominick Davis and Julius Jones....it was a tough one...and i ended up going with davis..do you agree with my decision?
Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Jul. 21, 2006, 3:17 PM
FFL mailbag: July 21
<!-- end pagetitle --><!-- begin bylinebox -->
<!-- firstName = Scott --><!-- lastName = Engel -->
By Scott Engel
ESPN Fantasy Games
<!-- begin presby2 -->
<!-- end presby2 -->
<!-- end bylinebox -->
<!-- begin text11 div --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-TOP: 10px" vAlign=top><!-- begin leftcol --><!-- template inline -->
Ken, Simpsonsville, S.C.: I am in a 12-team, three-player keeper league. My choices for keepers are Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Antonio Gates and Anquan Boldin. To me, Ronnie Brown is a lock. I am leaning to keeping Gates and Boldin as the other two. The question mark for me is Lewis. Last year was just awful, but the potential for a rebound is there.<!--##FRONTSTOP##--> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=200 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=8><SPACER width="8" type="block" height="1"></TD><TD width=300 bgColor=#ecece4>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica, sans-serif]The FFL Mailbag has the answers you need every Friday! Click here to send FFL questions and comments on players and trends. [/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Engel: Brown should be a lock, as he is apparently poised for a breakthrough season as Miami's prominent ball carrier. Boldin should remain a top receiver even if a more balanced Arizona offense means his numbers drop a bit as the team runs the ball more successfully. Lewis now has the motivation to perform better, as the team rewarded him with a three-year deal in the offseason after indications were that they might let him go after the 2005 season. The organization's perceived lack of confidence in Lewis seemed to affect his performance last year, and now with newly-acquired Mike Anderson a realistic threat to steal carries, Lewis has every reason to bounce back this year. And it's just a matter of time before Cedric Benson fully pushes Thomas Jones into a lesser role in Chicago. So Lewis is the better option of those two RBs, of course. And there is also the reality that not many top RBs will be available in a league of your size and format. So while Gates can still give you a good advantage at a weak position, Lewis could turn out to be a fine No. 2 RB for you this season, and you should take the chance. Keep Brown, Boldin and Lewis.
Keanu, Boxboro, Mass.: Almost all of the mock drafts I've seen are based on leagues that only require one starting quarterback. I am in a league which requires two starters at QB and two at RB, thus improving the value of QBs. I have the fourth pick and the "big three" are likely gone. Is Peyton Manning my best option or do I roll the dice with Clinton Portis or Tiki Barber? Can you see any other QBs sneaking into the top 10?
Engel: In leagues with two QBs, I usually advise taking two RBs and one QB in the first three rounds, and taking the second QB no later than the fifth round, depending on the flow of the draft. With many questions surrounding a lot of top RBs, you can't pass up the opportunity to take a top standout like Barber or Portis. You could see Carson Palmer or Tom Brady picked towards the end of the first round. After grabbing your franchise RB, take the best available QB in the second round. Only in two-QB leagues would I use this strategy, obviously, as you'll have a shaky lot of RBs to consider in the third round. But other owners also will have to take at least one QB with their first two picks, so you still might see a few decent starters fall to you by the third round. In the fourth and fifth rounds, depending on how the draft goes, you should take one QB and one WR, in no particular order. Make sure you come out of the first five rounds with two RBs, two QBs and at least one top 15 WR if possible.
John, Gilroy, Calif.: I'm in a three-WR, TD-heavy league and in mocks I've been taking two RBs and two WRs with my first four picks. Lately, I've been going with Corey Dillon or DeShaun Foster as my second RB, then I handcuff them with Laurence Maroney and DeAngelo Williams in the late fifth or sixth. Typically, is this a good strategy to use?
Engel: Handcuffing is always a smart approach, but you can never count on getting exactly who you want in drafts. In a three-receiver league, there is obviously a higher emphasis on wideouts, but I'd still go for a better RB pick than Dillon or Foster in the second round, then grab the best two receivers available in the third and fourth rounds. Then I would take another RB and WR in the fifth and sixth round, in no particular order. In your format, I might wait until the seventh round to take my QB. If I have the opportunity to "handcuff," I'll do it, but I wouldn't plan on that ahead of time as you can never know for sure who will be available in the fifth and sixth rounds. I would simply concentrate on getting the best RBs available in the first two rounds and a top backup in the fifth or sixth round, while making sure my starting receiver slots are also filled throughout the first six rounds. Handcuff if you can, but don't bank on it.
Ryan, Indianapolis: I have a scoring system question concerning QBs. I personally think that four points and -2 for interceptions is a good way to go. A few of my league mates think that only -1 for turnovers is good enough. I think TD to interception ratio is a big reflection of a QB's performance and should be taken into consideration, even in the fantasy world.
Engel: I agree with you that -2 points is a better measure of a quarterback's performance, as mistakes must be taken into account. Lowering or eliminating interception weights puts some mistake-prone passers into range with players who should be drafted earlier. Taking away two points for interceptions can reflect Brett Favre's struggles instead of making him a top 10 QB, and also will portray accurately the growing pains of young QB, like Eli Manning last year. Mistakes are part of a QB's game and should not be minimized. At the same time, I prefer leagues that count six points for a passing TD, as awarding only four points for a score devalues QBs even more. But I play in leagues with both four and six points awarded for a TD and can adapt easily to either one, but I would more openly object to reducing the emphasis on interceptions.
Tom, Richmond, Va.: With the unpredictable nature of defenses from one year to another, would I be making a drafting mistake to take two defenses with my second to last and third to last picks (my last pick being a kicker) to double my chances of landing a good one?
Engel: At the end of the draft, there really isn't anything that could be considered a major mistake, as many final picks often get cut even before the season starts. But I'd rather only one of my final picks on a defense, as the two you might pick will be very close in value, and you should confidently pick just one and stick with it. I'd rather use one of my late picks on a Greg Jennings or Cedric Humes instead of taking a reserve defense. I don't believe in drafting backup defenses and kickers, since they will only be used once during the season and can be obtained easily in free agency. If my starting unit doesn't work out, a defense I pluck off the free agent list early in the year can be as good as any one as I drafted late. The key is simply to do your defensive homework, be aware of personnel and coaching changes, and be ready to tab an underrated unit like the Bengals, which forces a lot of turnovers and might do so again. The Dolphins should improve this year and could be undervalued as well. You don't need to pick the Bears in the eighth round to guarantee defensive success. Knowledge is power, and know the defenses who are underrated and units that might improve, like Cleveland.
Brandon, Tumwater, Wash.: I'm in a first-year, 16-team, two-player keeper league and I have the 14th and 19th picks in the first two rounds. Do I draft three straight RBs in the first three rounds to make up for the lack of talent and compensate with depth? With the 19th pick, is a guy like Joseph Addai worth taking there or would he fall to me at 46? Or do I look to get two RBs and then maybe a WR in the third? Engel: In a league of such large size, you simply have to grab the best two RBs you can get with your first two picks. Addai is no guarantee to slip to you at No. 19, although I think there's a very good chance of it, and I'd be shocked to see him drop to 46th overall in a 16-team keeper league. If a decent RB is available with your third pick, go for it, as your first two picks might have some question marks surrounding them. Then you can load up on at least two receivers with the fourth and fifth picks. You must be ready for anything, though. If you see a rush on receivers in the third round, you might be able to grab a decent third RB in the fourth round. Just make sure you get RBs with your first two picks, and get more insurance for them no later than the fourth or fifth round.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
FFL mailbag: July 21
<!-- end pagetitle --><!-- begin bylinebox -->
<!-- firstName = Scott --><!-- lastName = Engel -->
By Scott Engel
ESPN Fantasy Games
<!-- begin presby2 -->
<!-- end presby2 -->
<!-- end bylinebox -->
<!-- begin text11 div --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-TOP: 10px" vAlign=top><!-- begin leftcol --><!-- template inline -->
Ken, Simpsonsville, S.C.: I am in a 12-team, three-player keeper league. My choices for keepers are Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Antonio Gates and Anquan Boldin. To me, Ronnie Brown is a lock. I am leaning to keeping Gates and Boldin as the other two. The question mark for me is Lewis. Last year was just awful, but the potential for a rebound is there.<!--##FRONTSTOP##--> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=200 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=8><SPACER width="8" type="block" height="1"></TD><TD width=300 bgColor=#ecece4>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica, sans-serif]The FFL Mailbag has the answers you need every Friday! Click here to send FFL questions and comments on players and trends. [/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Engel: Brown should be a lock, as he is apparently poised for a breakthrough season as Miami's prominent ball carrier. Boldin should remain a top receiver even if a more balanced Arizona offense means his numbers drop a bit as the team runs the ball more successfully. Lewis now has the motivation to perform better, as the team rewarded him with a three-year deal in the offseason after indications were that they might let him go after the 2005 season. The organization's perceived lack of confidence in Lewis seemed to affect his performance last year, and now with newly-acquired Mike Anderson a realistic threat to steal carries, Lewis has every reason to bounce back this year. And it's just a matter of time before Cedric Benson fully pushes Thomas Jones into a lesser role in Chicago. So Lewis is the better option of those two RBs, of course. And there is also the reality that not many top RBs will be available in a league of your size and format. So while Gates can still give you a good advantage at a weak position, Lewis could turn out to be a fine No. 2 RB for you this season, and you should take the chance. Keep Brown, Boldin and Lewis.
Keanu, Boxboro, Mass.: Almost all of the mock drafts I've seen are based on leagues that only require one starting quarterback. I am in a league which requires two starters at QB and two at RB, thus improving the value of QBs. I have the fourth pick and the "big three" are likely gone. Is Peyton Manning my best option or do I roll the dice with Clinton Portis or Tiki Barber? Can you see any other QBs sneaking into the top 10?
Engel: In leagues with two QBs, I usually advise taking two RBs and one QB in the first three rounds, and taking the second QB no later than the fifth round, depending on the flow of the draft. With many questions surrounding a lot of top RBs, you can't pass up the opportunity to take a top standout like Barber or Portis. You could see Carson Palmer or Tom Brady picked towards the end of the first round. After grabbing your franchise RB, take the best available QB in the second round. Only in two-QB leagues would I use this strategy, obviously, as you'll have a shaky lot of RBs to consider in the third round. But other owners also will have to take at least one QB with their first two picks, so you still might see a few decent starters fall to you by the third round. In the fourth and fifth rounds, depending on how the draft goes, you should take one QB and one WR, in no particular order. Make sure you come out of the first five rounds with two RBs, two QBs and at least one top 15 WR if possible.
John, Gilroy, Calif.: I'm in a three-WR, TD-heavy league and in mocks I've been taking two RBs and two WRs with my first four picks. Lately, I've been going with Corey Dillon or DeShaun Foster as my second RB, then I handcuff them with Laurence Maroney and DeAngelo Williams in the late fifth or sixth. Typically, is this a good strategy to use?
Engel: Handcuffing is always a smart approach, but you can never count on getting exactly who you want in drafts. In a three-receiver league, there is obviously a higher emphasis on wideouts, but I'd still go for a better RB pick than Dillon or Foster in the second round, then grab the best two receivers available in the third and fourth rounds. Then I would take another RB and WR in the fifth and sixth round, in no particular order. In your format, I might wait until the seventh round to take my QB. If I have the opportunity to "handcuff," I'll do it, but I wouldn't plan on that ahead of time as you can never know for sure who will be available in the fifth and sixth rounds. I would simply concentrate on getting the best RBs available in the first two rounds and a top backup in the fifth or sixth round, while making sure my starting receiver slots are also filled throughout the first six rounds. Handcuff if you can, but don't bank on it.
Ryan, Indianapolis: I have a scoring system question concerning QBs. I personally think that four points and -2 for interceptions is a good way to go. A few of my league mates think that only -1 for turnovers is good enough. I think TD to interception ratio is a big reflection of a QB's performance and should be taken into consideration, even in the fantasy world.
Engel: I agree with you that -2 points is a better measure of a quarterback's performance, as mistakes must be taken into account. Lowering or eliminating interception weights puts some mistake-prone passers into range with players who should be drafted earlier. Taking away two points for interceptions can reflect Brett Favre's struggles instead of making him a top 10 QB, and also will portray accurately the growing pains of young QB, like Eli Manning last year. Mistakes are part of a QB's game and should not be minimized. At the same time, I prefer leagues that count six points for a passing TD, as awarding only four points for a score devalues QBs even more. But I play in leagues with both four and six points awarded for a TD and can adapt easily to either one, but I would more openly object to reducing the emphasis on interceptions.
Tom, Richmond, Va.: With the unpredictable nature of defenses from one year to another, would I be making a drafting mistake to take two defenses with my second to last and third to last picks (my last pick being a kicker) to double my chances of landing a good one?
Engel: At the end of the draft, there really isn't anything that could be considered a major mistake, as many final picks often get cut even before the season starts. But I'd rather only one of my final picks on a defense, as the two you might pick will be very close in value, and you should confidently pick just one and stick with it. I'd rather use one of my late picks on a Greg Jennings or Cedric Humes instead of taking a reserve defense. I don't believe in drafting backup defenses and kickers, since they will only be used once during the season and can be obtained easily in free agency. If my starting unit doesn't work out, a defense I pluck off the free agent list early in the year can be as good as any one as I drafted late. The key is simply to do your defensive homework, be aware of personnel and coaching changes, and be ready to tab an underrated unit like the Bengals, which forces a lot of turnovers and might do so again. The Dolphins should improve this year and could be undervalued as well. You don't need to pick the Bears in the eighth round to guarantee defensive success. Knowledge is power, and know the defenses who are underrated and units that might improve, like Cleveland.
Brandon, Tumwater, Wash.: I'm in a first-year, 16-team, two-player keeper league and I have the 14th and 19th picks in the first two rounds. Do I draft three straight RBs in the first three rounds to make up for the lack of talent and compensate with depth? With the 19th pick, is a guy like Joseph Addai worth taking there or would he fall to me at 46? Or do I look to get two RBs and then maybe a WR in the third? Engel: In a league of such large size, you simply have to grab the best two RBs you can get with your first two picks. Addai is no guarantee to slip to you at No. 19, although I think there's a very good chance of it, and I'd be shocked to see him drop to 46th overall in a 16-team keeper league. If a decent RB is available with your third pick, go for it, as your first two picks might have some question marks surrounding them. Then you can load up on at least two receivers with the fourth and fifth picks. You must be ready for anything, though. If you see a rush on receivers in the third round, you might be able to grab a decent third RB in the fourth round. Just make sure you get RBs with your first two picks, and get more insurance for them no later than the fourth or fifth round.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Jul. 21, 2006, 3:17 PM
FFL mailbag: July 21
<!-- end pagetitle --><!-- begin bylinebox -->
<!-- firstName = Scott --><!-- lastName = Engel -->
By Scott Engel
ESPN Fantasy Games
<!-- begin presby2 -->
<!-- end presby2 -->
<!-- end bylinebox -->
<!-- begin text11 div --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-TOP: 10px" vAlign=top><!-- begin leftcol --><!-- template inline -->
Ken, Simpsonsville, S.C.: I am in a 12-team, three-player keeper league. My choices for keepers are Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Antonio Gates and Anquan Boldin. To me, Ronnie Brown is a lock. I am leaning to keeping Gates and Boldin as the other two. The question mark for me is Lewis. Last year was just awful, but the potential for a rebound is there.<!--##FRONTSTOP##--> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=200 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=8><SPACER width="8" type="block" height="1"></TD><TD width=300 bgColor=#ecece4>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica, sans-serif]The FFL Mailbag has the answers you need every Friday! Click here to send FFL questions and comments on players and trends. [/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Engel: Brown should be a lock, as he is apparently poised for a breakthrough season as Miami's prominent ball carrier. Boldin should remain a top receiver even if a more balanced Arizona offense means his numbers drop a bit as the team runs the ball more successfully. Lewis now has the motivation to perform better, as the team rewarded him with a three-year deal in the offseason after indications were that they might let him go after the 2005 season. The organization's perceived lack of confidence in Lewis seemed to affect his performance last year, and now with newly-acquired Mike Anderson a realistic threat to steal carries, Lewis has every reason to bounce back this year. And it's just a matter of time before Cedric Benson fully pushes Thomas Jones into a lesser role in Chicago. So Lewis is the better option of those two RBs, of course. And there is also the reality that not many top RBs will be available in a league of your size and format. So while Gates can still give you a good advantage at a weak position, Lewis could turn out to be a fine No. 2 RB for you this season, and you should take the chance. Keep Brown, Boldin and Lewis.
Keanu, Boxboro, Mass.: Almost all of the mock drafts I've seen are based on leagues that only require one starting quarterback. I am in a league which requires two starters at QB and two at RB, thus improving the value of QBs. I have the fourth pick and the "big three" are likely gone. Is Peyton Manning my best option or do I roll the dice with Clinton Portis or Tiki Barber? Can you see any other QBs sneaking into the top 10?
Engel: In leagues with two QBs, I usually advise taking two RBs and one QB in the first three rounds, and taking the second QB no later than the fifth round, depending on the flow of the draft. With many questions surrounding a lot of top RBs, you can't pass up the opportunity to take a top standout like Barber or Portis. You could see Carson Palmer or Tom Brady picked towards the end of the first round. After grabbing your franchise RB, take the best available QB in the second round. Only in two-QB leagues would I use this strategy, obviously, as you'll have a shaky lot of RBs to consider in the third round. But other owners also will have to take at least one QB with their first two picks, so you still might see a few decent starters fall to you by the third round. In the fourth and fifth rounds, depending on how the draft goes, you should take one QB and one WR, in no particular order. Make sure you come out of the first five rounds with two RBs, two QBs and at least one top 15 WR if possible.
John, Gilroy, Calif.: I'm in a three-WR, TD-heavy league and in mocks I've been taking two RBs and two WRs with my first four picks. Lately, I've been going with Corey Dillon or DeShaun Foster as my second RB, then I handcuff them with Laurence Maroney and DeAngelo Williams in the late fifth or sixth. Typically, is this a good strategy to use?
Engel: Handcuffing is always a smart approach, but you can never count on getting exactly who you want in drafts. In a three-receiver league, there is obviously a higher emphasis on wideouts, but I'd still go for a better RB pick than Dillon or Foster in the second round, then grab the best two receivers available in the third and fourth rounds. Then I would take another RB and WR in the fifth and sixth round, in no particular order. In your format, I might wait until the seventh round to take my QB. If I have the opportunity to "handcuff," I'll do it, but I wouldn't plan on that ahead of time as you can never know for sure who will be available in the fifth and sixth rounds. I would simply concentrate on getting the best RBs available in the first two rounds and a top backup in the fifth or sixth round, while making sure my starting receiver slots are also filled throughout the first six rounds. Handcuff if you can, but don't bank on it.
Ryan, Indianapolis: I have a scoring system question concerning QBs. I personally think that four points and -2 for interceptions is a good way to go. A few of my league mates think that only -1 for turnovers is good enough. I think TD to interception ratio is a big reflection of a QB's performance and should be taken into consideration, even in the fantasy world.
Engel: I agree with you that -2 points is a better measure of a quarterback's performance, as mistakes must be taken into account. Lowering or eliminating interception weights puts some mistake-prone passers into range with players who should be drafted earlier. Taking away two points for interceptions can reflect Brett Favre's struggles instead of making him a top 10 QB, and also will portray accurately the growing pains of young QB, like Eli Manning last year. Mistakes are part of a QB's game and should not be minimized. At the same time, I prefer leagues that count six points for a passing TD, as awarding only four points for a score devalues QBs even more. But I play in leagues with both four and six points awarded for a TD and can adapt easily to either one, but I would more openly object to reducing the emphasis on interceptions.
Tom, Richmond, Va.: With the unpredictable nature of defenses from one year to another, would I be making a drafting mistake to take two defenses with my second to last and third to last picks (my last pick being a kicker) to double my chances of landing a good one?
Engel: At the end of the draft, there really isn't anything that could be considered a major mistake, as many final picks often get cut even before the season starts. But I'd rather only one of my final picks on a defense, as the two you might pick will be very close in value, and you should confidently pick just one and stick with it. I'd rather use one of my late picks on a Greg Jennings or Cedric Humes instead of taking a reserve defense. I don't believe in drafting backup defenses and kickers, since they will only be used once during the season and can be obtained easily in free agency. If my starting unit doesn't work out, a defense I pluck off the free agent list early in the year can be as good as any one as I drafted late. The key is simply to do your defensive homework, be aware of personnel and coaching changes, and be ready to tab an underrated unit like the Bengals, which forces a lot of turnovers and might do so again. The Dolphins should improve this year and could be undervalued as well. You don't need to pick the Bears in the eighth round to guarantee defensive success. Knowledge is power, and know the defenses who are underrated and units that might improve, like Cleveland.
Brandon, Tumwater, Wash.: I'm in a first-year, 16-team, two-player keeper league and I have the 14th and 19th picks in the first two rounds. Do I draft three straight RBs in the first three rounds to make up for the lack of talent and compensate with depth? With the 19th pick, is a guy like Joseph Addai worth taking there or would he fall to me at 46? Or do I look to get two RBs and then maybe a WR in the third? Engel: In a league of such large size, you simply have to grab the best two RBs you can get with your first two picks. Addai is no guarantee to slip to you at No. 19, although I think there's a very good chance of it, and I'd be shocked to see him drop to 46th overall in a 16-team keeper league. If a decent RB is available with your third pick, go for it, as your first two picks might have some question marks surrounding them. Then you can load up on at least two receivers with the fourth and fifth picks. You must be ready for anything, though. If you see a rush on receivers in the third round, you might be able to grab a decent third RB in the fourth round. Just make sure you get RBs with your first two picks, and get more insurance for them no later than the fourth or fifth round.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
FFL mailbag: July 21
<!-- end pagetitle --><!-- begin bylinebox -->
<!-- firstName = Scott --><!-- lastName = Engel -->
By Scott Engel
ESPN Fantasy Games
<!-- begin presby2 -->
<!-- end presby2 -->
<!-- end bylinebox -->
<!-- begin text11 div --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-TOP: 10px" vAlign=top><!-- begin leftcol --><!-- template inline -->
Ken, Simpsonsville, S.C.: I am in a 12-team, three-player keeper league. My choices for keepers are Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Antonio Gates and Anquan Boldin. To me, Ronnie Brown is a lock. I am leaning to keeping Gates and Boldin as the other two. The question mark for me is Lewis. Last year was just awful, but the potential for a rebound is there.<!--##FRONTSTOP##--> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=200 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=8><SPACER width="8" type="block" height="1"></TD><TD width=300 bgColor=#ecece4>[FONT=Arial,Helvetica, sans-serif]The FFL Mailbag has the answers you need every Friday! Click here to send FFL questions and comments on players and trends. [/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Engel: Brown should be a lock, as he is apparently poised for a breakthrough season as Miami's prominent ball carrier. Boldin should remain a top receiver even if a more balanced Arizona offense means his numbers drop a bit as the team runs the ball more successfully. Lewis now has the motivation to perform better, as the team rewarded him with a three-year deal in the offseason after indications were that they might let him go after the 2005 season. The organization's perceived lack of confidence in Lewis seemed to affect his performance last year, and now with newly-acquired Mike Anderson a realistic threat to steal carries, Lewis has every reason to bounce back this year. And it's just a matter of time before Cedric Benson fully pushes Thomas Jones into a lesser role in Chicago. So Lewis is the better option of those two RBs, of course. And there is also the reality that not many top RBs will be available in a league of your size and format. So while Gates can still give you a good advantage at a weak position, Lewis could turn out to be a fine No. 2 RB for you this season, and you should take the chance. Keep Brown, Boldin and Lewis.
Keanu, Boxboro, Mass.: Almost all of the mock drafts I've seen are based on leagues that only require one starting quarterback. I am in a league which requires two starters at QB and two at RB, thus improving the value of QBs. I have the fourth pick and the "big three" are likely gone. Is Peyton Manning my best option or do I roll the dice with Clinton Portis or Tiki Barber? Can you see any other QBs sneaking into the top 10?
Engel: In leagues with two QBs, I usually advise taking two RBs and one QB in the first three rounds, and taking the second QB no later than the fifth round, depending on the flow of the draft. With many questions surrounding a lot of top RBs, you can't pass up the opportunity to take a top standout like Barber or Portis. You could see Carson Palmer or Tom Brady picked towards the end of the first round. After grabbing your franchise RB, take the best available QB in the second round. Only in two-QB leagues would I use this strategy, obviously, as you'll have a shaky lot of RBs to consider in the third round. But other owners also will have to take at least one QB with their first two picks, so you still might see a few decent starters fall to you by the third round. In the fourth and fifth rounds, depending on how the draft goes, you should take one QB and one WR, in no particular order. Make sure you come out of the first five rounds with two RBs, two QBs and at least one top 15 WR if possible.
John, Gilroy, Calif.: I'm in a three-WR, TD-heavy league and in mocks I've been taking two RBs and two WRs with my first four picks. Lately, I've been going with Corey Dillon or DeShaun Foster as my second RB, then I handcuff them with Laurence Maroney and DeAngelo Williams in the late fifth or sixth. Typically, is this a good strategy to use?
Engel: Handcuffing is always a smart approach, but you can never count on getting exactly who you want in drafts. In a three-receiver league, there is obviously a higher emphasis on wideouts, but I'd still go for a better RB pick than Dillon or Foster in the second round, then grab the best two receivers available in the third and fourth rounds. Then I would take another RB and WR in the fifth and sixth round, in no particular order. In your format, I might wait until the seventh round to take my QB. If I have the opportunity to "handcuff," I'll do it, but I wouldn't plan on that ahead of time as you can never know for sure who will be available in the fifth and sixth rounds. I would simply concentrate on getting the best RBs available in the first two rounds and a top backup in the fifth or sixth round, while making sure my starting receiver slots are also filled throughout the first six rounds. Handcuff if you can, but don't bank on it.
Ryan, Indianapolis: I have a scoring system question concerning QBs. I personally think that four points and -2 for interceptions is a good way to go. A few of my league mates think that only -1 for turnovers is good enough. I think TD to interception ratio is a big reflection of a QB's performance and should be taken into consideration, even in the fantasy world.
Engel: I agree with you that -2 points is a better measure of a quarterback's performance, as mistakes must be taken into account. Lowering or eliminating interception weights puts some mistake-prone passers into range with players who should be drafted earlier. Taking away two points for interceptions can reflect Brett Favre's struggles instead of making him a top 10 QB, and also will portray accurately the growing pains of young QB, like Eli Manning last year. Mistakes are part of a QB's game and should not be minimized. At the same time, I prefer leagues that count six points for a passing TD, as awarding only four points for a score devalues QBs even more. But I play in leagues with both four and six points awarded for a TD and can adapt easily to either one, but I would more openly object to reducing the emphasis on interceptions.
Tom, Richmond, Va.: With the unpredictable nature of defenses from one year to another, would I be making a drafting mistake to take two defenses with my second to last and third to last picks (my last pick being a kicker) to double my chances of landing a good one?
Engel: At the end of the draft, there really isn't anything that could be considered a major mistake, as many final picks often get cut even before the season starts. But I'd rather only one of my final picks on a defense, as the two you might pick will be very close in value, and you should confidently pick just one and stick with it. I'd rather use one of my late picks on a Greg Jennings or Cedric Humes instead of taking a reserve defense. I don't believe in drafting backup defenses and kickers, since they will only be used once during the season and can be obtained easily in free agency. If my starting unit doesn't work out, a defense I pluck off the free agent list early in the year can be as good as any one as I drafted late. The key is simply to do your defensive homework, be aware of personnel and coaching changes, and be ready to tab an underrated unit like the Bengals, which forces a lot of turnovers and might do so again. The Dolphins should improve this year and could be undervalued as well. You don't need to pick the Bears in the eighth round to guarantee defensive success. Knowledge is power, and know the defenses who are underrated and units that might improve, like Cleveland.
Brandon, Tumwater, Wash.: I'm in a first-year, 16-team, two-player keeper league and I have the 14th and 19th picks in the first two rounds. Do I draft three straight RBs in the first three rounds to make up for the lack of talent and compensate with depth? With the 19th pick, is a guy like Joseph Addai worth taking there or would he fall to me at 46? Or do I look to get two RBs and then maybe a WR in the third? Engel: In a league of such large size, you simply have to grab the best two RBs you can get with your first two picks. Addai is no guarantee to slip to you at No. 19, although I think there's a very good chance of it, and I'd be shocked to see him drop to 46th overall in a 16-team keeper league. If a decent RB is available with your third pick, go for it, as your first two picks might have some question marks surrounding them. Then you can load up on at least two receivers with the fourth and fifth picks. You must be ready for anything, though. If you see a rush on receivers in the third round, you might be able to grab a decent third RB in the fourth round. Just make sure you get RBs with your first two picks, and get more insurance for them no later than the fourth or fifth round.
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Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
EagleFan5 said:
I personally would automatically narrow it down to Ronnie Brown & Steven Jackson.
This is a toss up in my opinion.
I expect Ronnie Brown to have a huge year, but Steven Jackson's workload should increase with coincidentally, ex Dolphins Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan taking over as Head Coach.....
Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
EagleFan5 said:
I personally would automatically narrow it down to Ronnie Brown & Steven Jackson.
This is a toss up in my opinion.
I expect Ronnie Brown to have a huge year, but Steven Jackson's workload should increase with coincidentally, ex Dolphins Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan taking over as Head Coach.....
in mock drafts i've been say pick number 8 and i've had a choice of say Ronnie Brown or Peyton Manning...and i've been taking peyton every time...knowing that i can get a good rb early in the second round and an average rb in the third...do you dislike this strategy...considering how much manning will throw this year?
in mock drafts i've been say pick number 8 and i've had a choice of say Ronnie Brown or Peyton Manning...and i've been taking peyton every time...knowing that i can get a good rb early in the second round and an average rb in the third...do you dislike this strategy...considering how much manning will throw this year?
Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Jul. 24, 2006, 4:28 PM
FFL: Position Battles
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By Scott Engel
ESPN Fantasy Games
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Every pick in a fantasy football draft is important, so savvy owners stay on top of the latest news during training camp. Some of the most prominent stories revolve around competition for playing time at key spots. There are also less-publicized battles for starting jobs that concern fantasy leaguers. The earlier you draft, the more difficult it becomes to get a handle on just who could emerge as a starter or the more appealing draft pick between players who are competing with one another. Here's a look at some of the most crucial position battles for fantasy purposes, and how the results could affect your drafting strategies.
Running Back
Indianapolis: Veteran Dominic Rhodes has the edge in experience over rookie Joseph Addai, but he's considered an injury risk who was more effective earlier in his career. There are perceptions that Rhodes can easily get banged up, but his familiarity with the Colts' system could give him a chance to play at least a part-time role early in the season, and he is initially expected to be the starter. It just seems like a matter of time, though, before Addai wins the job outright, and Rhodes ultimately appears to be temporary insurance in case Addai doesn't pick up the offense quickly enough. Addai is the better inside runner of the two and has the potential to be a good receiver out of the backfield and a competent pass blocker. His blocking matters to fantasy leaguers, because if he picks up the blitz well, he'll spend more time on the field. Addai can be the all-around threat the Colts need in place of the departed Edgerrin James. The job seems to be his for the taking when he wants it. James Mungro is listed at 5-9 like Rhodes, but he is thicker and stronger and could steal a few goal-line carries. Prediction: Addai should at least share playing time with Rhodes early, but the job could be fully his by the second half of the regular season, if not sooner. Mungro could "vulture" a few TDs, but Addai is a quality third-round pick in 10 and 12-team leagues. Rhodes should be drafted for RB depth in the middle rounds.
Denver: Conventional wisdom seemed to dictate that Tatum Bell would get a real chance to become the team's full-time featured back when Mike Anderson signed with Baltimore, but that's simply not the case. Bell is certainly explosive, but there are concerns that he will wear down or get banged up with the chance to play more often. He didn't rush for more than 71 yards after Week 9 last year and was a non-factor in the postseason. The Broncos don't want to overuse him, as he has often been outstanding when sharing carries in the past. Plus, his blocking skills haven't been up to par. Bell seemed to complement the physical style of Anderson well last year, and the natural thought process in Denver appears to be that Ron Dayne will step in as the physical half of Denver's two-headed running monster. Dayne has been a major disappointment in the past, but a seven-carry, 98-yard performance against Dallas last year might have been a glimpse of what he can do in Denver's zone-blocking offense if given the chance. Former Patriot Cedric Cobbs is a late-round sleeper type who could get a chance to deliver on past preseason hype if Dayne fails again. Prediction: Expect Bell and Dayne to share playing time, making neither one the ideal No. 2 fantasy RB, but very good "flex" players in leagues that allow the position. Bell might be statistically inconsistent again, and Dayne is no lock to be a regularly effective goal-line runner. Don't overrate Bell based on Anderson's departure, and look to take him in the fourth round. Dayne is an intriguing pick a round or two later.
Chicago: A player like Thomas Jones would seemingly get better treatment after delivering a career season in 2005. But he's apparently unhappy about his contract and possibly his reduced lack of playing time. He missed offseason workouts because of the situation and Cedric Benson, who missed training camp last year, is getting work with the first-team offense. Ideally, the Bears would like to use both RBs to keep defenses off balance, but it might be difficult to convince either player to fully accept a part-time role. The Bears spent a first-round pick on Benson, and could give him the opportunity to be the clear No. 1 back if they must make a decision between the two. There has been some talk that Jones could be traded before the season starts, and that would be the best-case scenario in the minds of both players and fantasy owners, who would hate to see the two split reps. Benson is clearly Chicago's top ball carrier of the future. If he proves he is ready to handle a large load during the preseason, Jones could be on his way out of town, even though trades of such significance seem rare in the NFL these days. Prediction: It's hard to imagine either player embracing a part-time role, although the organization would like to use them to complement each other. Benson should be drafted first, because Jones has already hurt his cause by sulking, and Benson was drafted by Chicago to eventually become their star runner. You'll see Benson go as early as the third round in some drafts, although that might be a bit too early considering he is unproven and there's no guarantee he will start full-time. Jones makes a good fifth-round pick because of the trade possibilities.
New Orleans: This isn't exactly a "battle" as it is apparent both players will get quality playing time, but will one overshadow the other in a major way? Reggie Bush is a good bet to outperform Deuce McAllister statistically. While he might carry the ball only 10 or 12 times per game, he can score any time he touches the ball, and he will get the ball often as a receiver. The Saints intend to use him in a variety of ways, so you could see him lined up as a slot receiver and he could be very dangerous on screen passes and downfield routes. Many linebackers won't be able to cover Bush, and he'll challenge a lot of defensive backs. McAllister might need close to a full season to recapture much of his past form as he makes his way back from a major knee injury. Just how much the Saints will be able to depend on him remains to be seen. If McAllister is dependable, he'll likely get the majority of the goal-line carries and he has already split time with Bush early in training camp. The two seem destined to complement each other, with Bush having the great upside and the Saints hoping McAllister can simply be an adequate inside running presence. The Saints still have Michael Bennett, who is insurance if Bush is a holdout or McAllister can't stay healthy. But he has been an annual disappointment in the past and has been a subject of trade rumors. Prediction: Assuming he doesn't hold out for a lengthy period, Bush could actually live up to the hype. He's going as early as the second round in some drafts. Those who argue he is unproven must also realize that a back with such tremendous promise cannot be ignored once the top dozen or so RBs are off the board. There are many more established players at the position who are also surrounded by question marks and don't have Bush's promise. McAllister is a viable middle-round pick, but could be less of a story as Bush explodes often. He might be a good "flex" player because of his TD potential.
San Francisco: Kevan Barlow has been a yearly disappointment, and he doesn't have far to fall this season. He's recovering from knee surgery and is no lock to be the No. 1 guy after he has been tentative and enigmatic in the past. Frank Gore runs with more authority and explosion, but he is coming off surgeries on both shoulders during the offseason. Unless Barlow runs with surprising new zeal, it's hard to imagine him holding off Gore if the latter can stay healthy. But both players appear to be big question marks in an offense that won't scare anyone except for 49er fans. Maurice Hicks has already run with the first team in offseason workouts and can rip off large chunks of yardage at any time. But he doesn't figure to be a dependable full-time back if pressed into service. Rookie Michael Robinson is exciting and could play on third downs, but he doesn't figure to be much of a statistical contributor in his rookie year. Prediction: Gore should overtake Barlow if his shoulders aren't a major issue, so draft Gore first over Barlow in the middle rounds. At this point, we all know we can't trust Barlow. Hicks is worth a late-round flier and could have a good game or two if he's needed to start.
Other RB situations to watch: In the Jets' backfield, Cedric Houston should take some carries away from Curtis Martin. ... If Duce Staley can't stay healthy, Verron Haynes could be the preferred change-of-pace back to keep Willie Parker fresh. ... If Chris Brown gets his wish to be traded or suffers another injury, it's hard to imagine Travis Henry holding off LenDale White. ... How Samkon Gado and Najeh Davenport figure into the Green Bay RB picture depends heavily on the health of Ahman Green. ... Jerious Norwood could see some playing time in Atlanta, possibly at the expense of T.J. Duckett.
Quarterback
Buffalo: This is a wide-open competition between three guys who won't start for most fantasy teams, and will go undrafted in many leagues. Kelly Holcomb has the most experience and can be dependable from an NFL perspective, but he will never post outstanding fantasy numbers over a long stretch and injuries have been an issue for him in the past. J.P. Losman has all the abilities that scouts love, but his decision-making skills are highly questionable and he doesn't handle pressure very well. Craig Nall has appealing athletic ability, but he has no real NFL experience to speak of. Whoever wins this job will surprise fantasy players if they put up anything better than average numbers. Prediction: Holcomb is the best pick for the Bills if he can stay healthy, but you should avoid this situation unless you start two QBs or play in a very large league.
New York Jets: Chad Pennington was once a promising fantasy QB, but he is coming off surgery on his right shoulder for the second consecutive year. It's hard to envision him being able to make all the throws needed to hold down the job. Patrick Ramsey has a very good arm, but he doesn't have the field vision or accuracy of a healthy Pennington, and he has struggled as a starter in the past. Rookie Kellen Clemens is a terrific keeper prospect who could get pressed into service later in the year. Brooks Bollinger only seems to be a major emergency option. But emergencies have happened before with the Jets. Prediction: Like the Bills QBs, there's no reason to draft any of these guys in yearly leagues unless you don't play in a standard format. Ramsey could get the call early but might be replaced by Clemens when the losses start to pile up.
Tennessee: Billy Volek opens camp as the starter, but he is still more ideally suited to be a backup, despite his brief flashes of success as a starter in the past. Volek is confident and can be a good game manager, but he doesn't have a big-time arm and can sometimes make questionable throws downfield. Vince Young is raw, of course, but he has great confidence, natural leadership skills and has already impressed the Tennessee coaching staff in early workouts. His mechanics need some fine-tuning and there will be natural growing pains if he gets the chance to start at any point. Prediction: If the Titans play respectably early, Volek should hold onto the job for some time, but you'll likely see Young at some point. Don't overrate Volek, and draft him as a fantasy reserve. As a rule in most yearly leagues, most rookie QBs shouldn't be drafted.
Detroit: Jon Kitna is penciled in as the starter, but he doesn't have a vice grip on the job. Kitna has better intangibles than Josh McCown, who has more natural ability and the better arm. Kitna has been good enough to start for the Seahawks and Bengals in the past. He can make things happen because he is confident and experienced. But he is also notorious for making untimely errors. Kitna can post above-average fantasy numbers if he holds onto the job, and McCown can learn a lot from him. Kitna is the better game manager, and if he can teach McCown how to read defenses better and improve his decision-making, McCown should be the eventual starter. Prediction: Kitna should keep the job and will be a top fantasy backup for most of the year, worthy of an occasional start. McCown could get a look late in the year, but shouldn't be drafted in most leagues.
Other QB situations to watch: If Alex Smith struggles a lot early, the 49ers might not hesitate to turn to Trent Dilfer. ... Brian Griese could see playing time for the Bears if Rex Grossman falters. ... Matt Leinart could be ready to manage the offense adequately if Kurt Warner gets hurt, and could be worth adding as a reserve.
Wide Receivers
New England: While Chad Jackson was drafted as the ideal complement to Deion Branch, it remains to be seen how quickly he can adapt to the pro game. He has the ideal combination of size and speed, and it seems just like a matter of time before the job is his for good. Former Charger Reche Caldwell is insurance in case Jackson comes along slowly, and he doesn't figure to be an outstanding playmaker. Longtime Patriot Troy Brown is still around and could still make some occasional big plays if needed, but he has never been a model fantasy receiver and he is in the twilight of his career. Prediction: We all know Tom Brady spreads the ball around a lot, and he might incorporate tight ends more into the passing game this season. Either Jackson, a worthy late-round pick, develops quickly, or Branch will be the only Patriots receiver worth drafting.
Pittsburgh: Despite his off-field issues, Santonio Holmes will be groomed as the ideal complement to Hines Ward. Holmes is the deep threat who can improve the passing game, which could open up more this season now that Jerome Bettis has retired and Pittsburgh can no longer bang the opposition into submission. Holmes could make a quick transition to the pro game, but don't expect consistency in his first NFL season. Wilson is more suited to playing in the slot. He does have a knack for making timely grabs, but he might not be able to hold off Holmes for long. Prediction: The organization has expressed confidence in Holmes despite his off-field issues, so draft him in the later rounds as a reserve with upside. Wilson is a decent late-rounder in case Holmes doesn't develop quickly or has more problems.
Jacksonville: While Matt Jones appears poised to replace the retired Jimmy Smith as the team's No. 1 target, it's a big question who will be his top complement. And given that Jones is just in his second year, he's no lock to hold onto his job. Ernest Wilford is a big, possession type who has shown a flair for the timely catch in the past, and he's a proven red zone threat. Reggie Williams, a former No. 1 pick, has been a bust so far. He has been prone to drops, sloppy route running, and doesn't challenge defenses consistently. This could be his last chance to prove himself. Troy Edwards is a veteran presence, but he has never been dependable in the past. Prediction: Jones will sometimes be outstanding and is worth drafting as a third receiver with upside. There's no apparent reason to trust Williams or rely on Edwards, so Wilford could start by default and will continue to be useful when the matchup is right.
Detroit: Charles Rogers still has the ability to be a big-play type after being plagued by collarbone injuries and enduring a league suspension in his still-young career. He has the deep gear to be a perfect partner for Roy Williams. Mike Williams was another disappointment at receiver for the Lions last season, as he turned out to be enigmatic, slow and might be limited to making only possession and red-zone grabs. If Rogers can't stay healthy or out of trouble, and Mike Williams continues to be a plodder, the Lions have two other viable options. Corey Bradford is a pure deep guy who can catch an occasional home-run ball and not much else, but he fits well in Mike Martz's offense. Scottie Vines is dependable and hard-working, and can be a decent fantasy reserve. Prediction: All Rogers has to do is steer clear of bad luck and trouble, and he could have some very good games. He's still worth a late-rounder. Mike Williams looks like a bust already, so consider adding Bradford or Vines as free agent reserves after the draft if either one starts for the Lions. Other WR situations to watch: Nate Burleson could emerge as Seattle's clear No. 2 receiver, pushing Bobby Engram back to the No. 3 spot, where he is most effective. ... Kevin Curtis might surpass Isaac Bruce as St. Louis' second receiver this season. ... If Mark Bradley stays healthy, he should be a better No. 2 receiver choice than Bernard Berrian for Chicago.
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FFL: Position Battles
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By Scott Engel
ESPN Fantasy Games
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Every pick in a fantasy football draft is important, so savvy owners stay on top of the latest news during training camp. Some of the most prominent stories revolve around competition for playing time at key spots. There are also less-publicized battles for starting jobs that concern fantasy leaguers. The earlier you draft, the more difficult it becomes to get a handle on just who could emerge as a starter or the more appealing draft pick between players who are competing with one another. Here's a look at some of the most crucial position battles for fantasy purposes, and how the results could affect your drafting strategies.
Running Back
Indianapolis: Veteran Dominic Rhodes has the edge in experience over rookie Joseph Addai, but he's considered an injury risk who was more effective earlier in his career. There are perceptions that Rhodes can easily get banged up, but his familiarity with the Colts' system could give him a chance to play at least a part-time role early in the season, and he is initially expected to be the starter. It just seems like a matter of time, though, before Addai wins the job outright, and Rhodes ultimately appears to be temporary insurance in case Addai doesn't pick up the offense quickly enough. Addai is the better inside runner of the two and has the potential to be a good receiver out of the backfield and a competent pass blocker. His blocking matters to fantasy leaguers, because if he picks up the blitz well, he'll spend more time on the field. Addai can be the all-around threat the Colts need in place of the departed Edgerrin James. The job seems to be his for the taking when he wants it. James Mungro is listed at 5-9 like Rhodes, but he is thicker and stronger and could steal a few goal-line carries. Prediction: Addai should at least share playing time with Rhodes early, but the job could be fully his by the second half of the regular season, if not sooner. Mungro could "vulture" a few TDs, but Addai is a quality third-round pick in 10 and 12-team leagues. Rhodes should be drafted for RB depth in the middle rounds.
Denver: Conventional wisdom seemed to dictate that Tatum Bell would get a real chance to become the team's full-time featured back when Mike Anderson signed with Baltimore, but that's simply not the case. Bell is certainly explosive, but there are concerns that he will wear down or get banged up with the chance to play more often. He didn't rush for more than 71 yards after Week 9 last year and was a non-factor in the postseason. The Broncos don't want to overuse him, as he has often been outstanding when sharing carries in the past. Plus, his blocking skills haven't been up to par. Bell seemed to complement the physical style of Anderson well last year, and the natural thought process in Denver appears to be that Ron Dayne will step in as the physical half of Denver's two-headed running monster. Dayne has been a major disappointment in the past, but a seven-carry, 98-yard performance against Dallas last year might have been a glimpse of what he can do in Denver's zone-blocking offense if given the chance. Former Patriot Cedric Cobbs is a late-round sleeper type who could get a chance to deliver on past preseason hype if Dayne fails again. Prediction: Expect Bell and Dayne to share playing time, making neither one the ideal No. 2 fantasy RB, but very good "flex" players in leagues that allow the position. Bell might be statistically inconsistent again, and Dayne is no lock to be a regularly effective goal-line runner. Don't overrate Bell based on Anderson's departure, and look to take him in the fourth round. Dayne is an intriguing pick a round or two later.
Chicago: A player like Thomas Jones would seemingly get better treatment after delivering a career season in 2005. But he's apparently unhappy about his contract and possibly his reduced lack of playing time. He missed offseason workouts because of the situation and Cedric Benson, who missed training camp last year, is getting work with the first-team offense. Ideally, the Bears would like to use both RBs to keep defenses off balance, but it might be difficult to convince either player to fully accept a part-time role. The Bears spent a first-round pick on Benson, and could give him the opportunity to be the clear No. 1 back if they must make a decision between the two. There has been some talk that Jones could be traded before the season starts, and that would be the best-case scenario in the minds of both players and fantasy owners, who would hate to see the two split reps. Benson is clearly Chicago's top ball carrier of the future. If he proves he is ready to handle a large load during the preseason, Jones could be on his way out of town, even though trades of such significance seem rare in the NFL these days. Prediction: It's hard to imagine either player embracing a part-time role, although the organization would like to use them to complement each other. Benson should be drafted first, because Jones has already hurt his cause by sulking, and Benson was drafted by Chicago to eventually become their star runner. You'll see Benson go as early as the third round in some drafts, although that might be a bit too early considering he is unproven and there's no guarantee he will start full-time. Jones makes a good fifth-round pick because of the trade possibilities.
New Orleans: This isn't exactly a "battle" as it is apparent both players will get quality playing time, but will one overshadow the other in a major way? Reggie Bush is a good bet to outperform Deuce McAllister statistically. While he might carry the ball only 10 or 12 times per game, he can score any time he touches the ball, and he will get the ball often as a receiver. The Saints intend to use him in a variety of ways, so you could see him lined up as a slot receiver and he could be very dangerous on screen passes and downfield routes. Many linebackers won't be able to cover Bush, and he'll challenge a lot of defensive backs. McAllister might need close to a full season to recapture much of his past form as he makes his way back from a major knee injury. Just how much the Saints will be able to depend on him remains to be seen. If McAllister is dependable, he'll likely get the majority of the goal-line carries and he has already split time with Bush early in training camp. The two seem destined to complement each other, with Bush having the great upside and the Saints hoping McAllister can simply be an adequate inside running presence. The Saints still have Michael Bennett, who is insurance if Bush is a holdout or McAllister can't stay healthy. But he has been an annual disappointment in the past and has been a subject of trade rumors. Prediction: Assuming he doesn't hold out for a lengthy period, Bush could actually live up to the hype. He's going as early as the second round in some drafts. Those who argue he is unproven must also realize that a back with such tremendous promise cannot be ignored once the top dozen or so RBs are off the board. There are many more established players at the position who are also surrounded by question marks and don't have Bush's promise. McAllister is a viable middle-round pick, but could be less of a story as Bush explodes often. He might be a good "flex" player because of his TD potential.
San Francisco: Kevan Barlow has been a yearly disappointment, and he doesn't have far to fall this season. He's recovering from knee surgery and is no lock to be the No. 1 guy after he has been tentative and enigmatic in the past. Frank Gore runs with more authority and explosion, but he is coming off surgeries on both shoulders during the offseason. Unless Barlow runs with surprising new zeal, it's hard to imagine him holding off Gore if the latter can stay healthy. But both players appear to be big question marks in an offense that won't scare anyone except for 49er fans. Maurice Hicks has already run with the first team in offseason workouts and can rip off large chunks of yardage at any time. But he doesn't figure to be a dependable full-time back if pressed into service. Rookie Michael Robinson is exciting and could play on third downs, but he doesn't figure to be much of a statistical contributor in his rookie year. Prediction: Gore should overtake Barlow if his shoulders aren't a major issue, so draft Gore first over Barlow in the middle rounds. At this point, we all know we can't trust Barlow. Hicks is worth a late-round flier and could have a good game or two if he's needed to start.
Other RB situations to watch: In the Jets' backfield, Cedric Houston should take some carries away from Curtis Martin. ... If Duce Staley can't stay healthy, Verron Haynes could be the preferred change-of-pace back to keep Willie Parker fresh. ... If Chris Brown gets his wish to be traded or suffers another injury, it's hard to imagine Travis Henry holding off LenDale White. ... How Samkon Gado and Najeh Davenport figure into the Green Bay RB picture depends heavily on the health of Ahman Green. ... Jerious Norwood could see some playing time in Atlanta, possibly at the expense of T.J. Duckett.
Quarterback
Buffalo: This is a wide-open competition between three guys who won't start for most fantasy teams, and will go undrafted in many leagues. Kelly Holcomb has the most experience and can be dependable from an NFL perspective, but he will never post outstanding fantasy numbers over a long stretch and injuries have been an issue for him in the past. J.P. Losman has all the abilities that scouts love, but his decision-making skills are highly questionable and he doesn't handle pressure very well. Craig Nall has appealing athletic ability, but he has no real NFL experience to speak of. Whoever wins this job will surprise fantasy players if they put up anything better than average numbers. Prediction: Holcomb is the best pick for the Bills if he can stay healthy, but you should avoid this situation unless you start two QBs or play in a very large league.
New York Jets: Chad Pennington was once a promising fantasy QB, but he is coming off surgery on his right shoulder for the second consecutive year. It's hard to envision him being able to make all the throws needed to hold down the job. Patrick Ramsey has a very good arm, but he doesn't have the field vision or accuracy of a healthy Pennington, and he has struggled as a starter in the past. Rookie Kellen Clemens is a terrific keeper prospect who could get pressed into service later in the year. Brooks Bollinger only seems to be a major emergency option. But emergencies have happened before with the Jets. Prediction: Like the Bills QBs, there's no reason to draft any of these guys in yearly leagues unless you don't play in a standard format. Ramsey could get the call early but might be replaced by Clemens when the losses start to pile up.
Tennessee: Billy Volek opens camp as the starter, but he is still more ideally suited to be a backup, despite his brief flashes of success as a starter in the past. Volek is confident and can be a good game manager, but he doesn't have a big-time arm and can sometimes make questionable throws downfield. Vince Young is raw, of course, but he has great confidence, natural leadership skills and has already impressed the Tennessee coaching staff in early workouts. His mechanics need some fine-tuning and there will be natural growing pains if he gets the chance to start at any point. Prediction: If the Titans play respectably early, Volek should hold onto the job for some time, but you'll likely see Young at some point. Don't overrate Volek, and draft him as a fantasy reserve. As a rule in most yearly leagues, most rookie QBs shouldn't be drafted.
Detroit: Jon Kitna is penciled in as the starter, but he doesn't have a vice grip on the job. Kitna has better intangibles than Josh McCown, who has more natural ability and the better arm. Kitna has been good enough to start for the Seahawks and Bengals in the past. He can make things happen because he is confident and experienced. But he is also notorious for making untimely errors. Kitna can post above-average fantasy numbers if he holds onto the job, and McCown can learn a lot from him. Kitna is the better game manager, and if he can teach McCown how to read defenses better and improve his decision-making, McCown should be the eventual starter. Prediction: Kitna should keep the job and will be a top fantasy backup for most of the year, worthy of an occasional start. McCown could get a look late in the year, but shouldn't be drafted in most leagues.
Other QB situations to watch: If Alex Smith struggles a lot early, the 49ers might not hesitate to turn to Trent Dilfer. ... Brian Griese could see playing time for the Bears if Rex Grossman falters. ... Matt Leinart could be ready to manage the offense adequately if Kurt Warner gets hurt, and could be worth adding as a reserve.
Wide Receivers
New England: While Chad Jackson was drafted as the ideal complement to Deion Branch, it remains to be seen how quickly he can adapt to the pro game. He has the ideal combination of size and speed, and it seems just like a matter of time before the job is his for good. Former Charger Reche Caldwell is insurance in case Jackson comes along slowly, and he doesn't figure to be an outstanding playmaker. Longtime Patriot Troy Brown is still around and could still make some occasional big plays if needed, but he has never been a model fantasy receiver and he is in the twilight of his career. Prediction: We all know Tom Brady spreads the ball around a lot, and he might incorporate tight ends more into the passing game this season. Either Jackson, a worthy late-round pick, develops quickly, or Branch will be the only Patriots receiver worth drafting.
Pittsburgh: Despite his off-field issues, Santonio Holmes will be groomed as the ideal complement to Hines Ward. Holmes is the deep threat who can improve the passing game, which could open up more this season now that Jerome Bettis has retired and Pittsburgh can no longer bang the opposition into submission. Holmes could make a quick transition to the pro game, but don't expect consistency in his first NFL season. Wilson is more suited to playing in the slot. He does have a knack for making timely grabs, but he might not be able to hold off Holmes for long. Prediction: The organization has expressed confidence in Holmes despite his off-field issues, so draft him in the later rounds as a reserve with upside. Wilson is a decent late-rounder in case Holmes doesn't develop quickly or has more problems.
Jacksonville: While Matt Jones appears poised to replace the retired Jimmy Smith as the team's No. 1 target, it's a big question who will be his top complement. And given that Jones is just in his second year, he's no lock to hold onto his job. Ernest Wilford is a big, possession type who has shown a flair for the timely catch in the past, and he's a proven red zone threat. Reggie Williams, a former No. 1 pick, has been a bust so far. He has been prone to drops, sloppy route running, and doesn't challenge defenses consistently. This could be his last chance to prove himself. Troy Edwards is a veteran presence, but he has never been dependable in the past. Prediction: Jones will sometimes be outstanding and is worth drafting as a third receiver with upside. There's no apparent reason to trust Williams or rely on Edwards, so Wilford could start by default and will continue to be useful when the matchup is right.
Detroit: Charles Rogers still has the ability to be a big-play type after being plagued by collarbone injuries and enduring a league suspension in his still-young career. He has the deep gear to be a perfect partner for Roy Williams. Mike Williams was another disappointment at receiver for the Lions last season, as he turned out to be enigmatic, slow and might be limited to making only possession and red-zone grabs. If Rogers can't stay healthy or out of trouble, and Mike Williams continues to be a plodder, the Lions have two other viable options. Corey Bradford is a pure deep guy who can catch an occasional home-run ball and not much else, but he fits well in Mike Martz's offense. Scottie Vines is dependable and hard-working, and can be a decent fantasy reserve. Prediction: All Rogers has to do is steer clear of bad luck and trouble, and he could have some very good games. He's still worth a late-rounder. Mike Williams looks like a bust already, so consider adding Bradford or Vines as free agent reserves after the draft if either one starts for the Lions. Other WR situations to watch: Nate Burleson could emerge as Seattle's clear No. 2 receiver, pushing Bobby Engram back to the No. 3 spot, where he is most effective. ... Kevin Curtis might surpass Isaac Bruce as St. Louis' second receiver this season. ... If Mark Bradley stays healthy, he should be a better No. 2 receiver choice than Bernard Berrian for Chicago.
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Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Jul. 24, 2006, 4:28 PM
FFL: Position Battles
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By Scott Engel
ESPN Fantasy Games
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Every pick in a fantasy football draft is important, so savvy owners stay on top of the latest news during training camp. Some of the most prominent stories revolve around competition for playing time at key spots. There are also less-publicized battles for starting jobs that concern fantasy leaguers. The earlier you draft, the more difficult it becomes to get a handle on just who could emerge as a starter or the more appealing draft pick between players who are competing with one another. Here's a look at some of the most crucial position battles for fantasy purposes, and how the results could affect your drafting strategies.
Running Back
Indianapolis: Veteran Dominic Rhodes has the edge in experience over rookie Joseph Addai, but he's considered an injury risk who was more effective earlier in his career. There are perceptions that Rhodes can easily get banged up, but his familiarity with the Colts' system could give him a chance to play at least a part-time role early in the season, and he is initially expected to be the starter. It just seems like a matter of time, though, before Addai wins the job outright, and Rhodes ultimately appears to be temporary insurance in case Addai doesn't pick up the offense quickly enough. Addai is the better inside runner of the two and has the potential to be a good receiver out of the backfield and a competent pass blocker. His blocking matters to fantasy leaguers, because if he picks up the blitz well, he'll spend more time on the field. Addai can be the all-around threat the Colts need in place of the departed Edgerrin James. The job seems to be his for the taking when he wants it. James Mungro is listed at 5-9 like Rhodes, but he is thicker and stronger and could steal a few goal-line carries. Prediction: Addai should at least share playing time with Rhodes early, but the job could be fully his by the second half of the regular season, if not sooner. Mungro could "vulture" a few TDs, but Addai is a quality third-round pick in 10 and 12-team leagues. Rhodes should be drafted for RB depth in the middle rounds.
Denver: Conventional wisdom seemed to dictate that Tatum Bell would get a real chance to become the team's full-time featured back when Mike Anderson signed with Baltimore, but that's simply not the case. Bell is certainly explosive, but there are concerns that he will wear down or get banged up with the chance to play more often. He didn't rush for more than 71 yards after Week 9 last year and was a non-factor in the postseason. The Broncos don't want to overuse him, as he has often been outstanding when sharing carries in the past. Plus, his blocking skills haven't been up to par. Bell seemed to complement the physical style of Anderson well last year, and the natural thought process in Denver appears to be that Ron Dayne will step in as the physical half of Denver's two-headed running monster. Dayne has been a major disappointment in the past, but a seven-carry, 98-yard performance against Dallas last year might have been a glimpse of what he can do in Denver's zone-blocking offense if given the chance. Former Patriot Cedric Cobbs is a late-round sleeper type who could get a chance to deliver on past preseason hype if Dayne fails again. Prediction: Expect Bell and Dayne to share playing time, making neither one the ideal No. 2 fantasy RB, but very good "flex" players in leagues that allow the position. Bell might be statistically inconsistent again, and Dayne is no lock to be a regularly effective goal-line runner. Don't overrate Bell based on Anderson's departure, and look to take him in the fourth round. Dayne is an intriguing pick a round or two later.
Chicago: A player like Thomas Jones would seemingly get better treatment after delivering a career season in 2005. But he's apparently unhappy about his contract and possibly his reduced lack of playing time. He missed offseason workouts because of the situation and Cedric Benson, who missed training camp last year, is getting work with the first-team offense. Ideally, the Bears would like to use both RBs to keep defenses off balance, but it might be difficult to convince either player to fully accept a part-time role. The Bears spent a first-round pick on Benson, and could give him the opportunity to be the clear No. 1 back if they must make a decision between the two. There has been some talk that Jones could be traded before the season starts, and that would be the best-case scenario in the minds of both players and fantasy owners, who would hate to see the two split reps. Benson is clearly Chicago's top ball carrier of the future. If he proves he is ready to handle a large load during the preseason, Jones could be on his way out of town, even though trades of such significance seem rare in the NFL these days. Prediction: It's hard to imagine either player embracing a part-time role, although the organization would like to use them to complement each other. Benson should be drafted first, because Jones has already hurt his cause by sulking, and Benson was drafted by Chicago to eventually become their star runner. You'll see Benson go as early as the third round in some drafts, although that might be a bit too early considering he is unproven and there's no guarantee he will start full-time. Jones makes a good fifth-round pick because of the trade possibilities.
New Orleans: This isn't exactly a "battle" as it is apparent both players will get quality playing time, but will one overshadow the other in a major way? Reggie Bush is a good bet to outperform Deuce McAllister statistically. While he might carry the ball only 10 or 12 times per game, he can score any time he touches the ball, and he will get the ball often as a receiver. The Saints intend to use him in a variety of ways, so you could see him lined up as a slot receiver and he could be very dangerous on screen passes and downfield routes. Many linebackers won't be able to cover Bush, and he'll challenge a lot of defensive backs. McAllister might need close to a full season to recapture much of his past form as he makes his way back from a major knee injury. Just how much the Saints will be able to depend on him remains to be seen. If McAllister is dependable, he'll likely get the majority of the goal-line carries and he has already split time with Bush early in training camp. The two seem destined to complement each other, with Bush having the great upside and the Saints hoping McAllister can simply be an adequate inside running presence. The Saints still have Michael Bennett, who is insurance if Bush is a holdout or McAllister can't stay healthy. But he has been an annual disappointment in the past and has been a subject of trade rumors. Prediction: Assuming he doesn't hold out for a lengthy period, Bush could actually live up to the hype. He's going as early as the second round in some drafts. Those who argue he is unproven must also realize that a back with such tremendous promise cannot be ignored once the top dozen or so RBs are off the board. There are many more established players at the position who are also surrounded by question marks and don't have Bush's promise. McAllister is a viable middle-round pick, but could be less of a story as Bush explodes often. He might be a good "flex" player because of his TD potential.
San Francisco: Kevan Barlow has been a yearly disappointment, and he doesn't have far to fall this season. He's recovering from knee surgery and is no lock to be the No. 1 guy after he has been tentative and enigmatic in the past. Frank Gore runs with more authority and explosion, but he is coming off surgeries on both shoulders during the offseason. Unless Barlow runs with surprising new zeal, it's hard to imagine him holding off Gore if the latter can stay healthy. But both players appear to be big question marks in an offense that won't scare anyone except for 49er fans. Maurice Hicks has already run with the first team in offseason workouts and can rip off large chunks of yardage at any time. But he doesn't figure to be a dependable full-time back if pressed into service. Rookie Michael Robinson is exciting and could play on third downs, but he doesn't figure to be much of a statistical contributor in his rookie year. Prediction: Gore should overtake Barlow if his shoulders aren't a major issue, so draft Gore first over Barlow in the middle rounds. At this point, we all know we can't trust Barlow. Hicks is worth a late-round flier and could have a good game or two if he's needed to start.
Other RB situations to watch: In the Jets' backfield, Cedric Houston should take some carries away from Curtis Martin. ... If Duce Staley can't stay healthy, Verron Haynes could be the preferred change-of-pace back to keep Willie Parker fresh. ... If Chris Brown gets his wish to be traded or suffers another injury, it's hard to imagine Travis Henry holding off LenDale White. ... How Samkon Gado and Najeh Davenport figure into the Green Bay RB picture depends heavily on the health of Ahman Green. ... Jerious Norwood could see some playing time in Atlanta, possibly at the expense of T.J. Duckett.
Quarterback
Buffalo: This is a wide-open competition between three guys who won't start for most fantasy teams, and will go undrafted in many leagues. Kelly Holcomb has the most experience and can be dependable from an NFL perspective, but he will never post outstanding fantasy numbers over a long stretch and injuries have been an issue for him in the past. J.P. Losman has all the abilities that scouts love, but his decision-making skills are highly questionable and he doesn't handle pressure very well. Craig Nall has appealing athletic ability, but he has no real NFL experience to speak of. Whoever wins this job will surprise fantasy players if they put up anything better than average numbers. Prediction: Holcomb is the best pick for the Bills if he can stay healthy, but you should avoid this situation unless you start two QBs or play in a very large league.
New York Jets: Chad Pennington was once a promising fantasy QB, but he is coming off surgery on his right shoulder for the second consecutive year. It's hard to envision him being able to make all the throws needed to hold down the job. Patrick Ramsey has a very good arm, but he doesn't have the field vision or accuracy of a healthy Pennington, and he has struggled as a starter in the past. Rookie Kellen Clemens is a terrific keeper prospect who could get pressed into service later in the year. Brooks Bollinger only seems to be a major emergency option. But emergencies have happened before with the Jets. Prediction: Like the Bills QBs, there's no reason to draft any of these guys in yearly leagues unless you don't play in a standard format. Ramsey could get the call early but might be replaced by Clemens when the losses start to pile up.
Tennessee: Billy Volek opens camp as the starter, but he is still more ideally suited to be a backup, despite his brief flashes of success as a starter in the past. Volek is confident and can be a good game manager, but he doesn't have a big-time arm and can sometimes make questionable throws downfield. Vince Young is raw, of course, but he has great confidence, natural leadership skills and has already impressed the Tennessee coaching staff in early workouts. His mechanics need some fine-tuning and there will be natural growing pains if he gets the chance to start at any point. Prediction: If the Titans play respectably early, Volek should hold onto the job for some time, but you'll likely see Young at some point. Don't overrate Volek, and draft him as a fantasy reserve. As a rule in most yearly leagues, most rookie QBs shouldn't be drafted.
Detroit: Jon Kitna is penciled in as the starter, but he doesn't have a vice grip on the job. Kitna has better intangibles than Josh McCown, who has more natural ability and the better arm. Kitna has been good enough to start for the Seahawks and Bengals in the past. He can make things happen because he is confident and experienced. But he is also notorious for making untimely errors. Kitna can post above-average fantasy numbers if he holds onto the job, and McCown can learn a lot from him. Kitna is the better game manager, and if he can teach McCown how to read defenses better and improve his decision-making, McCown should be the eventual starter. Prediction: Kitna should keep the job and will be a top fantasy backup for most of the year, worthy of an occasional start. McCown could get a look late in the year, but shouldn't be drafted in most leagues.
Other QB situations to watch: If Alex Smith struggles a lot early, the 49ers might not hesitate to turn to Trent Dilfer. ... Brian Griese could see playing time for the Bears if Rex Grossman falters. ... Matt Leinart could be ready to manage the offense adequately if Kurt Warner gets hurt, and could be worth adding as a reserve.
Wide Receivers
New England: While Chad Jackson was drafted as the ideal complement to Deion Branch, it remains to be seen how quickly he can adapt to the pro game. He has the ideal combination of size and speed, and it seems just like a matter of time before the job is his for good. Former Charger Reche Caldwell is insurance in case Jackson comes along slowly, and he doesn't figure to be an outstanding playmaker. Longtime Patriot Troy Brown is still around and could still make some occasional big plays if needed, but he has never been a model fantasy receiver and he is in the twilight of his career. Prediction: We all know Tom Brady spreads the ball around a lot, and he might incorporate tight ends more into the passing game this season. Either Jackson, a worthy late-round pick, develops quickly, or Branch will be the only Patriots receiver worth drafting.
Pittsburgh: Despite his off-field issues, Santonio Holmes will be groomed as the ideal complement to Hines Ward. Holmes is the deep threat who can improve the passing game, which could open up more this season now that Jerome Bettis has retired and Pittsburgh can no longer bang the opposition into submission. Holmes could make a quick transition to the pro game, but don't expect consistency in his first NFL season. Wilson is more suited to playing in the slot. He does have a knack for making timely grabs, but he might not be able to hold off Holmes for long. Prediction: The organization has expressed confidence in Holmes despite his off-field issues, so draft him in the later rounds as a reserve with upside. Wilson is a decent late-rounder in case Holmes doesn't develop quickly or has more problems.
Jacksonville: While Matt Jones appears poised to replace the retired Jimmy Smith as the team's No. 1 target, it's a big question who will be his top complement. And given that Jones is just in his second year, he's no lock to hold onto his job. Ernest Wilford is a big, possession type who has shown a flair for the timely catch in the past, and he's a proven red zone threat. Reggie Williams, a former No. 1 pick, has been a bust so far. He has been prone to drops, sloppy route running, and doesn't challenge defenses consistently. This could be his last chance to prove himself. Troy Edwards is a veteran presence, but he has never been dependable in the past. Prediction: Jones will sometimes be outstanding and is worth drafting as a third receiver with upside. There's no apparent reason to trust Williams or rely on Edwards, so Wilford could start by default and will continue to be useful when the matchup is right.
Detroit: Charles Rogers still has the ability to be a big-play type after being plagued by collarbone injuries and enduring a league suspension in his still-young career. He has the deep gear to be a perfect partner for Roy Williams. Mike Williams was another disappointment at receiver for the Lions last season, as he turned out to be enigmatic, slow and might be limited to making only possession and red-zone grabs. If Rogers can't stay healthy or out of trouble, and Mike Williams continues to be a plodder, the Lions have two other viable options. Corey Bradford is a pure deep guy who can catch an occasional home-run ball and not much else, but he fits well in Mike Martz's offense. Scottie Vines is dependable and hard-working, and can be a decent fantasy reserve. Prediction: All Rogers has to do is steer clear of bad luck and trouble, and he could have some very good games. He's still worth a late-rounder. Mike Williams looks like a bust already, so consider adding Bradford or Vines as free agent reserves after the draft if either one starts for the Lions. Other WR situations to watch: Nate Burleson could emerge as Seattle's clear No. 2 receiver, pushing Bobby Engram back to the No. 3 spot, where he is most effective. ... Kevin Curtis might surpass Isaac Bruce as St. Louis' second receiver this season. ... If Mark Bradley stays healthy, he should be a better No. 2 receiver choice than Bernard Berrian for Chicago.
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FFL: Position Battles
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By Scott Engel
ESPN Fantasy Games
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Every pick in a fantasy football draft is important, so savvy owners stay on top of the latest news during training camp. Some of the most prominent stories revolve around competition for playing time at key spots. There are also less-publicized battles for starting jobs that concern fantasy leaguers. The earlier you draft, the more difficult it becomes to get a handle on just who could emerge as a starter or the more appealing draft pick between players who are competing with one another. Here's a look at some of the most crucial position battles for fantasy purposes, and how the results could affect your drafting strategies.
Running Back
Indianapolis: Veteran Dominic Rhodes has the edge in experience over rookie Joseph Addai, but he's considered an injury risk who was more effective earlier in his career. There are perceptions that Rhodes can easily get banged up, but his familiarity with the Colts' system could give him a chance to play at least a part-time role early in the season, and he is initially expected to be the starter. It just seems like a matter of time, though, before Addai wins the job outright, and Rhodes ultimately appears to be temporary insurance in case Addai doesn't pick up the offense quickly enough. Addai is the better inside runner of the two and has the potential to be a good receiver out of the backfield and a competent pass blocker. His blocking matters to fantasy leaguers, because if he picks up the blitz well, he'll spend more time on the field. Addai can be the all-around threat the Colts need in place of the departed Edgerrin James. The job seems to be his for the taking when he wants it. James Mungro is listed at 5-9 like Rhodes, but he is thicker and stronger and could steal a few goal-line carries. Prediction: Addai should at least share playing time with Rhodes early, but the job could be fully his by the second half of the regular season, if not sooner. Mungro could "vulture" a few TDs, but Addai is a quality third-round pick in 10 and 12-team leagues. Rhodes should be drafted for RB depth in the middle rounds.
Denver: Conventional wisdom seemed to dictate that Tatum Bell would get a real chance to become the team's full-time featured back when Mike Anderson signed with Baltimore, but that's simply not the case. Bell is certainly explosive, but there are concerns that he will wear down or get banged up with the chance to play more often. He didn't rush for more than 71 yards after Week 9 last year and was a non-factor in the postseason. The Broncos don't want to overuse him, as he has often been outstanding when sharing carries in the past. Plus, his blocking skills haven't been up to par. Bell seemed to complement the physical style of Anderson well last year, and the natural thought process in Denver appears to be that Ron Dayne will step in as the physical half of Denver's two-headed running monster. Dayne has been a major disappointment in the past, but a seven-carry, 98-yard performance against Dallas last year might have been a glimpse of what he can do in Denver's zone-blocking offense if given the chance. Former Patriot Cedric Cobbs is a late-round sleeper type who could get a chance to deliver on past preseason hype if Dayne fails again. Prediction: Expect Bell and Dayne to share playing time, making neither one the ideal No. 2 fantasy RB, but very good "flex" players in leagues that allow the position. Bell might be statistically inconsistent again, and Dayne is no lock to be a regularly effective goal-line runner. Don't overrate Bell based on Anderson's departure, and look to take him in the fourth round. Dayne is an intriguing pick a round or two later.
Chicago: A player like Thomas Jones would seemingly get better treatment after delivering a career season in 2005. But he's apparently unhappy about his contract and possibly his reduced lack of playing time. He missed offseason workouts because of the situation and Cedric Benson, who missed training camp last year, is getting work with the first-team offense. Ideally, the Bears would like to use both RBs to keep defenses off balance, but it might be difficult to convince either player to fully accept a part-time role. The Bears spent a first-round pick on Benson, and could give him the opportunity to be the clear No. 1 back if they must make a decision between the two. There has been some talk that Jones could be traded before the season starts, and that would be the best-case scenario in the minds of both players and fantasy owners, who would hate to see the two split reps. Benson is clearly Chicago's top ball carrier of the future. If he proves he is ready to handle a large load during the preseason, Jones could be on his way out of town, even though trades of such significance seem rare in the NFL these days. Prediction: It's hard to imagine either player embracing a part-time role, although the organization would like to use them to complement each other. Benson should be drafted first, because Jones has already hurt his cause by sulking, and Benson was drafted by Chicago to eventually become their star runner. You'll see Benson go as early as the third round in some drafts, although that might be a bit too early considering he is unproven and there's no guarantee he will start full-time. Jones makes a good fifth-round pick because of the trade possibilities.
New Orleans: This isn't exactly a "battle" as it is apparent both players will get quality playing time, but will one overshadow the other in a major way? Reggie Bush is a good bet to outperform Deuce McAllister statistically. While he might carry the ball only 10 or 12 times per game, he can score any time he touches the ball, and he will get the ball often as a receiver. The Saints intend to use him in a variety of ways, so you could see him lined up as a slot receiver and he could be very dangerous on screen passes and downfield routes. Many linebackers won't be able to cover Bush, and he'll challenge a lot of defensive backs. McAllister might need close to a full season to recapture much of his past form as he makes his way back from a major knee injury. Just how much the Saints will be able to depend on him remains to be seen. If McAllister is dependable, he'll likely get the majority of the goal-line carries and he has already split time with Bush early in training camp. The two seem destined to complement each other, with Bush having the great upside and the Saints hoping McAllister can simply be an adequate inside running presence. The Saints still have Michael Bennett, who is insurance if Bush is a holdout or McAllister can't stay healthy. But he has been an annual disappointment in the past and has been a subject of trade rumors. Prediction: Assuming he doesn't hold out for a lengthy period, Bush could actually live up to the hype. He's going as early as the second round in some drafts. Those who argue he is unproven must also realize that a back with such tremendous promise cannot be ignored once the top dozen or so RBs are off the board. There are many more established players at the position who are also surrounded by question marks and don't have Bush's promise. McAllister is a viable middle-round pick, but could be less of a story as Bush explodes often. He might be a good "flex" player because of his TD potential.
San Francisco: Kevan Barlow has been a yearly disappointment, and he doesn't have far to fall this season. He's recovering from knee surgery and is no lock to be the No. 1 guy after he has been tentative and enigmatic in the past. Frank Gore runs with more authority and explosion, but he is coming off surgeries on both shoulders during the offseason. Unless Barlow runs with surprising new zeal, it's hard to imagine him holding off Gore if the latter can stay healthy. But both players appear to be big question marks in an offense that won't scare anyone except for 49er fans. Maurice Hicks has already run with the first team in offseason workouts and can rip off large chunks of yardage at any time. But he doesn't figure to be a dependable full-time back if pressed into service. Rookie Michael Robinson is exciting and could play on third downs, but he doesn't figure to be much of a statistical contributor in his rookie year. Prediction: Gore should overtake Barlow if his shoulders aren't a major issue, so draft Gore first over Barlow in the middle rounds. At this point, we all know we can't trust Barlow. Hicks is worth a late-round flier and could have a good game or two if he's needed to start.
Other RB situations to watch: In the Jets' backfield, Cedric Houston should take some carries away from Curtis Martin. ... If Duce Staley can't stay healthy, Verron Haynes could be the preferred change-of-pace back to keep Willie Parker fresh. ... If Chris Brown gets his wish to be traded or suffers another injury, it's hard to imagine Travis Henry holding off LenDale White. ... How Samkon Gado and Najeh Davenport figure into the Green Bay RB picture depends heavily on the health of Ahman Green. ... Jerious Norwood could see some playing time in Atlanta, possibly at the expense of T.J. Duckett.
Quarterback
Buffalo: This is a wide-open competition between three guys who won't start for most fantasy teams, and will go undrafted in many leagues. Kelly Holcomb has the most experience and can be dependable from an NFL perspective, but he will never post outstanding fantasy numbers over a long stretch and injuries have been an issue for him in the past. J.P. Losman has all the abilities that scouts love, but his decision-making skills are highly questionable and he doesn't handle pressure very well. Craig Nall has appealing athletic ability, but he has no real NFL experience to speak of. Whoever wins this job will surprise fantasy players if they put up anything better than average numbers. Prediction: Holcomb is the best pick for the Bills if he can stay healthy, but you should avoid this situation unless you start two QBs or play in a very large league.
New York Jets: Chad Pennington was once a promising fantasy QB, but he is coming off surgery on his right shoulder for the second consecutive year. It's hard to envision him being able to make all the throws needed to hold down the job. Patrick Ramsey has a very good arm, but he doesn't have the field vision or accuracy of a healthy Pennington, and he has struggled as a starter in the past. Rookie Kellen Clemens is a terrific keeper prospect who could get pressed into service later in the year. Brooks Bollinger only seems to be a major emergency option. But emergencies have happened before with the Jets. Prediction: Like the Bills QBs, there's no reason to draft any of these guys in yearly leagues unless you don't play in a standard format. Ramsey could get the call early but might be replaced by Clemens when the losses start to pile up.
Tennessee: Billy Volek opens camp as the starter, but he is still more ideally suited to be a backup, despite his brief flashes of success as a starter in the past. Volek is confident and can be a good game manager, but he doesn't have a big-time arm and can sometimes make questionable throws downfield. Vince Young is raw, of course, but he has great confidence, natural leadership skills and has already impressed the Tennessee coaching staff in early workouts. His mechanics need some fine-tuning and there will be natural growing pains if he gets the chance to start at any point. Prediction: If the Titans play respectably early, Volek should hold onto the job for some time, but you'll likely see Young at some point. Don't overrate Volek, and draft him as a fantasy reserve. As a rule in most yearly leagues, most rookie QBs shouldn't be drafted.
Detroit: Jon Kitna is penciled in as the starter, but he doesn't have a vice grip on the job. Kitna has better intangibles than Josh McCown, who has more natural ability and the better arm. Kitna has been good enough to start for the Seahawks and Bengals in the past. He can make things happen because he is confident and experienced. But he is also notorious for making untimely errors. Kitna can post above-average fantasy numbers if he holds onto the job, and McCown can learn a lot from him. Kitna is the better game manager, and if he can teach McCown how to read defenses better and improve his decision-making, McCown should be the eventual starter. Prediction: Kitna should keep the job and will be a top fantasy backup for most of the year, worthy of an occasional start. McCown could get a look late in the year, but shouldn't be drafted in most leagues.
Other QB situations to watch: If Alex Smith struggles a lot early, the 49ers might not hesitate to turn to Trent Dilfer. ... Brian Griese could see playing time for the Bears if Rex Grossman falters. ... Matt Leinart could be ready to manage the offense adequately if Kurt Warner gets hurt, and could be worth adding as a reserve.
Wide Receivers
New England: While Chad Jackson was drafted as the ideal complement to Deion Branch, it remains to be seen how quickly he can adapt to the pro game. He has the ideal combination of size and speed, and it seems just like a matter of time before the job is his for good. Former Charger Reche Caldwell is insurance in case Jackson comes along slowly, and he doesn't figure to be an outstanding playmaker. Longtime Patriot Troy Brown is still around and could still make some occasional big plays if needed, but he has never been a model fantasy receiver and he is in the twilight of his career. Prediction: We all know Tom Brady spreads the ball around a lot, and he might incorporate tight ends more into the passing game this season. Either Jackson, a worthy late-round pick, develops quickly, or Branch will be the only Patriots receiver worth drafting.
Pittsburgh: Despite his off-field issues, Santonio Holmes will be groomed as the ideal complement to Hines Ward. Holmes is the deep threat who can improve the passing game, which could open up more this season now that Jerome Bettis has retired and Pittsburgh can no longer bang the opposition into submission. Holmes could make a quick transition to the pro game, but don't expect consistency in his first NFL season. Wilson is more suited to playing in the slot. He does have a knack for making timely grabs, but he might not be able to hold off Holmes for long. Prediction: The organization has expressed confidence in Holmes despite his off-field issues, so draft him in the later rounds as a reserve with upside. Wilson is a decent late-rounder in case Holmes doesn't develop quickly or has more problems.
Jacksonville: While Matt Jones appears poised to replace the retired Jimmy Smith as the team's No. 1 target, it's a big question who will be his top complement. And given that Jones is just in his second year, he's no lock to hold onto his job. Ernest Wilford is a big, possession type who has shown a flair for the timely catch in the past, and he's a proven red zone threat. Reggie Williams, a former No. 1 pick, has been a bust so far. He has been prone to drops, sloppy route running, and doesn't challenge defenses consistently. This could be his last chance to prove himself. Troy Edwards is a veteran presence, but he has never been dependable in the past. Prediction: Jones will sometimes be outstanding and is worth drafting as a third receiver with upside. There's no apparent reason to trust Williams or rely on Edwards, so Wilford could start by default and will continue to be useful when the matchup is right.
Detroit: Charles Rogers still has the ability to be a big-play type after being plagued by collarbone injuries and enduring a league suspension in his still-young career. He has the deep gear to be a perfect partner for Roy Williams. Mike Williams was another disappointment at receiver for the Lions last season, as he turned out to be enigmatic, slow and might be limited to making only possession and red-zone grabs. If Rogers can't stay healthy or out of trouble, and Mike Williams continues to be a plodder, the Lions have two other viable options. Corey Bradford is a pure deep guy who can catch an occasional home-run ball and not much else, but he fits well in Mike Martz's offense. Scottie Vines is dependable and hard-working, and can be a decent fantasy reserve. Prediction: All Rogers has to do is steer clear of bad luck and trouble, and he could have some very good games. He's still worth a late-rounder. Mike Williams looks like a bust already, so consider adding Bradford or Vines as free agent reserves after the draft if either one starts for the Lions. Other WR situations to watch: Nate Burleson could emerge as Seattle's clear No. 2 receiver, pushing Bobby Engram back to the No. 3 spot, where he is most effective. ... Kevin Curtis might surpass Isaac Bruce as St. Louis' second receiver this season. ... If Mark Bradley stays healthy, he should be a better No. 2 receiver choice than Bernard Berrian for Chicago.
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Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Jul. 26, 2006, 2:14 PM
FFL: The Reggie debate
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By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN Fantasy Games
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Don't let Saints rookie Reggie Bush fool you; he's not worthy of the No. 1 overall pick in 2006 fantasy football drafts, no matter what he tells you in the commercials.
There's a significant debate brewing surrounding Bush, easily the most hyped rookie in several years. Is Bush already overhyped? Will his potential holdout affect his overall fantasy value? When is the right time to draft this exciting rookie prospect?
Bush cracked the top 20 overall in both my and colleague Scott Engel's rankings, lofty status for a player who has yet to make his NFL debut. (I had him 17th, Scott 19th.) Generally speaking, most people seem to rank him, at worst, among the top 25 picks overall, meaning he'll be off the board by no later than early-to-middle third round. Maybe that seems early for a completely untested player, but Bush's talent does back up the notion.
Widely considered the best overall prospect in this year's draft, Bush earned that honor thanks to his unbelievable agility, explosiveness and triple-threat ability, possessing elite talent as a runner, receiver and return man. What makes a great fantasy running back is often his ability to rack up solid statistics not only on the ground, but also in the receiving game, and Bush should be every bit as good as some of the all-time greats in that department. Scouts have frequently compared him to Tony Dorsett, Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders and Gale Sayers, four all-time greats. With that kind of upside, it's understandable that there's a significant buzz developing around the rookie.
But can Bush make that kind of impact in his first NFL season? Take a look at what those four comparables did in their debut seasons:
Dorsett: 208 attempts, 1,007 yards, 12 TDs (rushing); 29 catches, 273 yards, 1 TD (receiving)
Faulk: 314-1282-11; 52-522-1
Sanders: 280-1470-14; 24-282-0
Sayers: 166-867-14; 29-507-6
In other words, all four of those players were talented enough to make immediate adjustments to the pro game, even if they didn't enjoy their best seasons as rookies. With an average rushing line of 242 attempts, 1,157 yards and 13 touchdowns and receiving line of 34 catches, 396 yards and two TDs in their first NFL seasons, the quartet does seem a fair statistical comparison for Bush. Remember, he enjoyed the third-best season in Division I-A history in 2005 with 2,890 all-purpose yards, only 360 short of Sanders' all-time record set in 1988, so it's clear he has the overwhelming talent to warrant an early-round selection.
However, while there's little doubt Bush's talent makes him a strong bet for one of the great rookie seasons of all time, his story isn't all positives. Players like this often build such a level of preseason hype that they can't help but become overpriced come draft day -- remember, that day is more than a month away for many owners -- so while I stand by my ranking of Bush, resist the temptation to push him any higher on your draft sheet.
For one thing, there's increasing concern that Bush will endure a significant holdout as Saints camp prepares to open on Thursday. Now, I'm not one to worry too much about holdouts this early in the year, at least as far as veteran players are concerned. They already have the experience to quickly get in gear for the regular season even if they miss a few preseason weeks. Rookies, however, can use as much time as possible getting acclimated to the NFL game, learning their pro teams' offenses and getting in quality time in preseason contests. A running back might be able to adjust more quickly than a player at another position. But in Bush's case, the fact that he's so important to the Saints not only as a runner but also in a variety of receiving packages sparks concern that if he misses too much time, he won't be properly prepared to exploit his receiving ability.
For example, look no further than Dolphins sophomore Ronnie Brown, the No. 2 pick overall in the 2005 draft who missed three weeks of training camp due to his contract squabbles as a rookie last year. As a result of the missed time, Brown didn't seem quite so ready to bear the brunt of being Miami's featured back. He finished the season with a disappointing 907 rushing yards and five total touchdowns, though to be fair, he also had Ricky Williams around to steal some of his carries.
Brown's example is important because Williams diluted some of his value last year; Bush is in a similar situation with veteran Deuce McAllister around to alleviate pressure in the ground game. The more time Bush misses, the more apt New Orleans will be to hand McAllister the ball during opening week, and at that point Bush might have to do that much more to overtake the veteran for the starting job. Even if Bush is the primary back -- which seems likely -- there's little chance he'll be a 20-plus-carry-per-game runner, meaning he's going to have to make the most of his opportunities on the ground.
Not that I'd expect McAllister to be a serious threat to Bush's fantasy value. After all, he's recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament, an injury which history shows us can take a player not only several months to heal, but then up to a full year of game action to get back to full strength. Jamal Anderson, Edgerrin James and Terrell Davis are just three examples of players who were disappointing statistically in their first years back from that surgery.
The other factor to consider with Bush is his team situation. Keep in mind he played on a stacked college team (USC) with a top-notch quarterback (Matt Leinart) and solid receivers, meaning his team helped divert much of the defensive attention. On a team like the Saints, which isn't quite so deep, Bush should expect to be much more the focus of opposing defenders. Plus, considering that New Orleans doesn't have much of an offensive line to create holes, Bush should prepare for a lot more tough hits than he received in college.
Taking into account all the above factors, Bush naturally should enjoy better future seasons than his rookie campaign of 2006. He's a franchise running back, and certainly worthy of a first-round selection in keeper formats. But in yearly leagues, Bush is still capable of a 1,000-yard rushing season with 8-10 touchdowns, and he has the upside for a little better, assuming he comes to terms in the near future.
That's still a little better potential than you'll get in comparable running backs in the Nos. 20-25 overall range, like Tatum Bell, Kevin Jones and Willis McGahee. All of those players can be solid starters, but none has the immense upside of a player like Bush. I'd still take Bush before the end of the second round, though he's highly unlikely to move up from my current No. 17 ranking. In fact, the more time he misses this preseason, the more likely he'll decline on my draft sheet. Remember, getting Bush at the back end of the second round means you probably got one of the "big three" fantasy running backs in the first round, and in that event, an owner can afford taking a chance on a high-upside No. 2 running back like him. I doubt I'd want him as my leading rusher, but there's little doubt he can be a solid No. 2 option with an outside chance at being better.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
FFL: The Reggie debate
<!-- end pagetitle --><!-- begin bylinebox -->
<!-- firstName = tristan --><!-- lastName = Cockcroft -->
By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN Fantasy Games
<!-- begin presby2 -->
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<!-- begin text11 div --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-TOP: 10px" vAlign=top><!-- begin leftcol --><!-- template inline -->
Don't let Saints rookie Reggie Bush fool you; he's not worthy of the No. 1 overall pick in 2006 fantasy football drafts, no matter what he tells you in the commercials.
There's a significant debate brewing surrounding Bush, easily the most hyped rookie in several years. Is Bush already overhyped? Will his potential holdout affect his overall fantasy value? When is the right time to draft this exciting rookie prospect?
Bush cracked the top 20 overall in both my and colleague Scott Engel's rankings, lofty status for a player who has yet to make his NFL debut. (I had him 17th, Scott 19th.) Generally speaking, most people seem to rank him, at worst, among the top 25 picks overall, meaning he'll be off the board by no later than early-to-middle third round. Maybe that seems early for a completely untested player, but Bush's talent does back up the notion.
Widely considered the best overall prospect in this year's draft, Bush earned that honor thanks to his unbelievable agility, explosiveness and triple-threat ability, possessing elite talent as a runner, receiver and return man. What makes a great fantasy running back is often his ability to rack up solid statistics not only on the ground, but also in the receiving game, and Bush should be every bit as good as some of the all-time greats in that department. Scouts have frequently compared him to Tony Dorsett, Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders and Gale Sayers, four all-time greats. With that kind of upside, it's understandable that there's a significant buzz developing around the rookie.
But can Bush make that kind of impact in his first NFL season? Take a look at what those four comparables did in their debut seasons:
Dorsett: 208 attempts, 1,007 yards, 12 TDs (rushing); 29 catches, 273 yards, 1 TD (receiving)
Faulk: 314-1282-11; 52-522-1
Sanders: 280-1470-14; 24-282-0
Sayers: 166-867-14; 29-507-6
In other words, all four of those players were talented enough to make immediate adjustments to the pro game, even if they didn't enjoy their best seasons as rookies. With an average rushing line of 242 attempts, 1,157 yards and 13 touchdowns and receiving line of 34 catches, 396 yards and two TDs in their first NFL seasons, the quartet does seem a fair statistical comparison for Bush. Remember, he enjoyed the third-best season in Division I-A history in 2005 with 2,890 all-purpose yards, only 360 short of Sanders' all-time record set in 1988, so it's clear he has the overwhelming talent to warrant an early-round selection.
However, while there's little doubt Bush's talent makes him a strong bet for one of the great rookie seasons of all time, his story isn't all positives. Players like this often build such a level of preseason hype that they can't help but become overpriced come draft day -- remember, that day is more than a month away for many owners -- so while I stand by my ranking of Bush, resist the temptation to push him any higher on your draft sheet.
For one thing, there's increasing concern that Bush will endure a significant holdout as Saints camp prepares to open on Thursday. Now, I'm not one to worry too much about holdouts this early in the year, at least as far as veteran players are concerned. They already have the experience to quickly get in gear for the regular season even if they miss a few preseason weeks. Rookies, however, can use as much time as possible getting acclimated to the NFL game, learning their pro teams' offenses and getting in quality time in preseason contests. A running back might be able to adjust more quickly than a player at another position. But in Bush's case, the fact that he's so important to the Saints not only as a runner but also in a variety of receiving packages sparks concern that if he misses too much time, he won't be properly prepared to exploit his receiving ability.
For example, look no further than Dolphins sophomore Ronnie Brown, the No. 2 pick overall in the 2005 draft who missed three weeks of training camp due to his contract squabbles as a rookie last year. As a result of the missed time, Brown didn't seem quite so ready to bear the brunt of being Miami's featured back. He finished the season with a disappointing 907 rushing yards and five total touchdowns, though to be fair, he also had Ricky Williams around to steal some of his carries.
Brown's example is important because Williams diluted some of his value last year; Bush is in a similar situation with veteran Deuce McAllister around to alleviate pressure in the ground game. The more time Bush misses, the more apt New Orleans will be to hand McAllister the ball during opening week, and at that point Bush might have to do that much more to overtake the veteran for the starting job. Even if Bush is the primary back -- which seems likely -- there's little chance he'll be a 20-plus-carry-per-game runner, meaning he's going to have to make the most of his opportunities on the ground.
Not that I'd expect McAllister to be a serious threat to Bush's fantasy value. After all, he's recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament, an injury which history shows us can take a player not only several months to heal, but then up to a full year of game action to get back to full strength. Jamal Anderson, Edgerrin James and Terrell Davis are just three examples of players who were disappointing statistically in their first years back from that surgery.
The other factor to consider with Bush is his team situation. Keep in mind he played on a stacked college team (USC) with a top-notch quarterback (Matt Leinart) and solid receivers, meaning his team helped divert much of the defensive attention. On a team like the Saints, which isn't quite so deep, Bush should expect to be much more the focus of opposing defenders. Plus, considering that New Orleans doesn't have much of an offensive line to create holes, Bush should prepare for a lot more tough hits than he received in college.
Taking into account all the above factors, Bush naturally should enjoy better future seasons than his rookie campaign of 2006. He's a franchise running back, and certainly worthy of a first-round selection in keeper formats. But in yearly leagues, Bush is still capable of a 1,000-yard rushing season with 8-10 touchdowns, and he has the upside for a little better, assuming he comes to terms in the near future.
That's still a little better potential than you'll get in comparable running backs in the Nos. 20-25 overall range, like Tatum Bell, Kevin Jones and Willis McGahee. All of those players can be solid starters, but none has the immense upside of a player like Bush. I'd still take Bush before the end of the second round, though he's highly unlikely to move up from my current No. 17 ranking. In fact, the more time he misses this preseason, the more likely he'll decline on my draft sheet. Remember, getting Bush at the back end of the second round means you probably got one of the "big three" fantasy running backs in the first round, and in that event, an owner can afford taking a chance on a high-upside No. 2 running back like him. I doubt I'd want him as my leading rusher, but there's little doubt he can be a solid No. 2 option with an outside chance at being better.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Jul. 26, 2006, 2:14 PM
FFL: The Reggie debate
<!-- end pagetitle --><!-- begin bylinebox -->
<!-- firstName = tristan --><!-- lastName = Cockcroft -->
By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN Fantasy Games
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<!-- begin text11 div --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-TOP: 10px" vAlign=top><!-- begin leftcol --><!-- template inline -->
Don't let Saints rookie Reggie Bush fool you; he's not worthy of the No. 1 overall pick in 2006 fantasy football drafts, no matter what he tells you in the commercials.
There's a significant debate brewing surrounding Bush, easily the most hyped rookie in several years. Is Bush already overhyped? Will his potential holdout affect his overall fantasy value? When is the right time to draft this exciting rookie prospect?
Bush cracked the top 20 overall in both my and colleague Scott Engel's rankings, lofty status for a player who has yet to make his NFL debut. (I had him 17th, Scott 19th.) Generally speaking, most people seem to rank him, at worst, among the top 25 picks overall, meaning he'll be off the board by no later than early-to-middle third round. Maybe that seems early for a completely untested player, but Bush's talent does back up the notion.
Widely considered the best overall prospect in this year's draft, Bush earned that honor thanks to his unbelievable agility, explosiveness and triple-threat ability, possessing elite talent as a runner, receiver and return man. What makes a great fantasy running back is often his ability to rack up solid statistics not only on the ground, but also in the receiving game, and Bush should be every bit as good as some of the all-time greats in that department. Scouts have frequently compared him to Tony Dorsett, Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders and Gale Sayers, four all-time greats. With that kind of upside, it's understandable that there's a significant buzz developing around the rookie.
But can Bush make that kind of impact in his first NFL season? Take a look at what those four comparables did in their debut seasons:
Dorsett: 208 attempts, 1,007 yards, 12 TDs (rushing); 29 catches, 273 yards, 1 TD (receiving)
Faulk: 314-1282-11; 52-522-1
Sanders: 280-1470-14; 24-282-0
Sayers: 166-867-14; 29-507-6
In other words, all four of those players were talented enough to make immediate adjustments to the pro game, even if they didn't enjoy their best seasons as rookies. With an average rushing line of 242 attempts, 1,157 yards and 13 touchdowns and receiving line of 34 catches, 396 yards and two TDs in their first NFL seasons, the quartet does seem a fair statistical comparison for Bush. Remember, he enjoyed the third-best season in Division I-A history in 2005 with 2,890 all-purpose yards, only 360 short of Sanders' all-time record set in 1988, so it's clear he has the overwhelming talent to warrant an early-round selection.
However, while there's little doubt Bush's talent makes him a strong bet for one of the great rookie seasons of all time, his story isn't all positives. Players like this often build such a level of preseason hype that they can't help but become overpriced come draft day -- remember, that day is more than a month away for many owners -- so while I stand by my ranking of Bush, resist the temptation to push him any higher on your draft sheet.
For one thing, there's increasing concern that Bush will endure a significant holdout as Saints camp prepares to open on Thursday. Now, I'm not one to worry too much about holdouts this early in the year, at least as far as veteran players are concerned. They already have the experience to quickly get in gear for the regular season even if they miss a few preseason weeks. Rookies, however, can use as much time as possible getting acclimated to the NFL game, learning their pro teams' offenses and getting in quality time in preseason contests. A running back might be able to adjust more quickly than a player at another position. But in Bush's case, the fact that he's so important to the Saints not only as a runner but also in a variety of receiving packages sparks concern that if he misses too much time, he won't be properly prepared to exploit his receiving ability.
For example, look no further than Dolphins sophomore Ronnie Brown, the No. 2 pick overall in the 2005 draft who missed three weeks of training camp due to his contract squabbles as a rookie last year. As a result of the missed time, Brown didn't seem quite so ready to bear the brunt of being Miami's featured back. He finished the season with a disappointing 907 rushing yards and five total touchdowns, though to be fair, he also had Ricky Williams around to steal some of his carries.
Brown's example is important because Williams diluted some of his value last year; Bush is in a similar situation with veteran Deuce McAllister around to alleviate pressure in the ground game. The more time Bush misses, the more apt New Orleans will be to hand McAllister the ball during opening week, and at that point Bush might have to do that much more to overtake the veteran for the starting job. Even if Bush is the primary back -- which seems likely -- there's little chance he'll be a 20-plus-carry-per-game runner, meaning he's going to have to make the most of his opportunities on the ground.
Not that I'd expect McAllister to be a serious threat to Bush's fantasy value. After all, he's recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament, an injury which history shows us can take a player not only several months to heal, but then up to a full year of game action to get back to full strength. Jamal Anderson, Edgerrin James and Terrell Davis are just three examples of players who were disappointing statistically in their first years back from that surgery.
The other factor to consider with Bush is his team situation. Keep in mind he played on a stacked college team (USC) with a top-notch quarterback (Matt Leinart) and solid receivers, meaning his team helped divert much of the defensive attention. On a team like the Saints, which isn't quite so deep, Bush should expect to be much more the focus of opposing defenders. Plus, considering that New Orleans doesn't have much of an offensive line to create holes, Bush should prepare for a lot more tough hits than he received in college.
Taking into account all the above factors, Bush naturally should enjoy better future seasons than his rookie campaign of 2006. He's a franchise running back, and certainly worthy of a first-round selection in keeper formats. But in yearly leagues, Bush is still capable of a 1,000-yard rushing season with 8-10 touchdowns, and he has the upside for a little better, assuming he comes to terms in the near future.
That's still a little better potential than you'll get in comparable running backs in the Nos. 20-25 overall range, like Tatum Bell, Kevin Jones and Willis McGahee. All of those players can be solid starters, but none has the immense upside of a player like Bush. I'd still take Bush before the end of the second round, though he's highly unlikely to move up from my current No. 17 ranking. In fact, the more time he misses this preseason, the more likely he'll decline on my draft sheet. Remember, getting Bush at the back end of the second round means you probably got one of the "big three" fantasy running backs in the first round, and in that event, an owner can afford taking a chance on a high-upside No. 2 running back like him. I doubt I'd want him as my leading rusher, but there's little doubt he can be a solid No. 2 option with an outside chance at being better.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
FFL: The Reggie debate
<!-- end pagetitle --><!-- begin bylinebox -->
<!-- firstName = tristan --><!-- lastName = Cockcroft -->
By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN Fantasy Games
<!-- begin presby2 -->
<!-- end presby2 -->
<!-- end bylinebox -->
<!-- begin text11 div --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-TOP: 10px" vAlign=top><!-- begin leftcol --><!-- template inline -->
Don't let Saints rookie Reggie Bush fool you; he's not worthy of the No. 1 overall pick in 2006 fantasy football drafts, no matter what he tells you in the commercials.
There's a significant debate brewing surrounding Bush, easily the most hyped rookie in several years. Is Bush already overhyped? Will his potential holdout affect his overall fantasy value? When is the right time to draft this exciting rookie prospect?
Bush cracked the top 20 overall in both my and colleague Scott Engel's rankings, lofty status for a player who has yet to make his NFL debut. (I had him 17th, Scott 19th.) Generally speaking, most people seem to rank him, at worst, among the top 25 picks overall, meaning he'll be off the board by no later than early-to-middle third round. Maybe that seems early for a completely untested player, but Bush's talent does back up the notion.
Widely considered the best overall prospect in this year's draft, Bush earned that honor thanks to his unbelievable agility, explosiveness and triple-threat ability, possessing elite talent as a runner, receiver and return man. What makes a great fantasy running back is often his ability to rack up solid statistics not only on the ground, but also in the receiving game, and Bush should be every bit as good as some of the all-time greats in that department. Scouts have frequently compared him to Tony Dorsett, Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders and Gale Sayers, four all-time greats. With that kind of upside, it's understandable that there's a significant buzz developing around the rookie.
But can Bush make that kind of impact in his first NFL season? Take a look at what those four comparables did in their debut seasons:
Dorsett: 208 attempts, 1,007 yards, 12 TDs (rushing); 29 catches, 273 yards, 1 TD (receiving)
Faulk: 314-1282-11; 52-522-1
Sanders: 280-1470-14; 24-282-0
Sayers: 166-867-14; 29-507-6
In other words, all four of those players were talented enough to make immediate adjustments to the pro game, even if they didn't enjoy their best seasons as rookies. With an average rushing line of 242 attempts, 1,157 yards and 13 touchdowns and receiving line of 34 catches, 396 yards and two TDs in their first NFL seasons, the quartet does seem a fair statistical comparison for Bush. Remember, he enjoyed the third-best season in Division I-A history in 2005 with 2,890 all-purpose yards, only 360 short of Sanders' all-time record set in 1988, so it's clear he has the overwhelming talent to warrant an early-round selection.
However, while there's little doubt Bush's talent makes him a strong bet for one of the great rookie seasons of all time, his story isn't all positives. Players like this often build such a level of preseason hype that they can't help but become overpriced come draft day -- remember, that day is more than a month away for many owners -- so while I stand by my ranking of Bush, resist the temptation to push him any higher on your draft sheet.
For one thing, there's increasing concern that Bush will endure a significant holdout as Saints camp prepares to open on Thursday. Now, I'm not one to worry too much about holdouts this early in the year, at least as far as veteran players are concerned. They already have the experience to quickly get in gear for the regular season even if they miss a few preseason weeks. Rookies, however, can use as much time as possible getting acclimated to the NFL game, learning their pro teams' offenses and getting in quality time in preseason contests. A running back might be able to adjust more quickly than a player at another position. But in Bush's case, the fact that he's so important to the Saints not only as a runner but also in a variety of receiving packages sparks concern that if he misses too much time, he won't be properly prepared to exploit his receiving ability.
For example, look no further than Dolphins sophomore Ronnie Brown, the No. 2 pick overall in the 2005 draft who missed three weeks of training camp due to his contract squabbles as a rookie last year. As a result of the missed time, Brown didn't seem quite so ready to bear the brunt of being Miami's featured back. He finished the season with a disappointing 907 rushing yards and five total touchdowns, though to be fair, he also had Ricky Williams around to steal some of his carries.
Brown's example is important because Williams diluted some of his value last year; Bush is in a similar situation with veteran Deuce McAllister around to alleviate pressure in the ground game. The more time Bush misses, the more apt New Orleans will be to hand McAllister the ball during opening week, and at that point Bush might have to do that much more to overtake the veteran for the starting job. Even if Bush is the primary back -- which seems likely -- there's little chance he'll be a 20-plus-carry-per-game runner, meaning he's going to have to make the most of his opportunities on the ground.
Not that I'd expect McAllister to be a serious threat to Bush's fantasy value. After all, he's recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament, an injury which history shows us can take a player not only several months to heal, but then up to a full year of game action to get back to full strength. Jamal Anderson, Edgerrin James and Terrell Davis are just three examples of players who were disappointing statistically in their first years back from that surgery.
The other factor to consider with Bush is his team situation. Keep in mind he played on a stacked college team (USC) with a top-notch quarterback (Matt Leinart) and solid receivers, meaning his team helped divert much of the defensive attention. On a team like the Saints, which isn't quite so deep, Bush should expect to be much more the focus of opposing defenders. Plus, considering that New Orleans doesn't have much of an offensive line to create holes, Bush should prepare for a lot more tough hits than he received in college.
Taking into account all the above factors, Bush naturally should enjoy better future seasons than his rookie campaign of 2006. He's a franchise running back, and certainly worthy of a first-round selection in keeper formats. But in yearly leagues, Bush is still capable of a 1,000-yard rushing season with 8-10 touchdowns, and he has the upside for a little better, assuming he comes to terms in the near future.
That's still a little better potential than you'll get in comparable running backs in the Nos. 20-25 overall range, like Tatum Bell, Kevin Jones and Willis McGahee. All of those players can be solid starters, but none has the immense upside of a player like Bush. I'd still take Bush before the end of the second round, though he's highly unlikely to move up from my current No. 17 ranking. In fact, the more time he misses this preseason, the more likely he'll decline on my draft sheet. Remember, getting Bush at the back end of the second round means you probably got one of the "big three" fantasy running backs in the first round, and in that event, an owner can afford taking a chance on a high-upside No. 2 running back like him. I doubt I'd want him as my leading rusher, but there's little doubt he can be a solid No. 2 option with an outside chance at being better.
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Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Jul. 26, 2006, 1:48 PM
FFL: Engel's Round One Guide
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By Scott Engel
ESPN Fantasy Games
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You've waited since last season ended for this moment. The chance to make your first draft pick of the 2006 season. This will be the cornerstone of your team, the centerpiece of your fantasy "franchise." So, of course, you want to make this choice one to remember, one to carry you all the way to a championship. Even the best players have a few questions surrounding them, so there's no such thing as a "sure thing" at any spot. Here's a guide on which players you should consider at every slot in the first round, with ideal picks and top alternative choices.
First Pick: Do you take the guy with seemingly great upside, or the proven superstar? With the opportunity to be a full-time starter, Larry Johnson could have one of the most unreal seasons we've ever seen. Shaun Alexander is coming off his best season in a very impressive career and is a proven, durable standout. Johnson, however, could challenge or break Alexander's TD record this season. He's that good, and new coach Herm Edwards will tie his offense to Johnson's back. Even if defenses know Johnson is coming, that doesn't mean they'll be able to stop him, and the offensive line is still very solid overall. Alexander might see his numbers drop, but not in a major way. The loss of OG Steve Hutchinson will be felt. Still, Alexander deserves serious consideration at this spot. While Johnson has never been a starter over a full season, I've seen enough of him to have confidence that he'll put up outstanding numbers on a regular basis. Alexander might seem like the safer pick, but I think Johnson is a safe pick as well. He's already been a highly successful starter when given the opportunity. Ideal Pick: Larry Johnson Top Alternative: Shaun Alexander.
Second Pick: If anyone can break the "Madden jinx" it's Alexander. His style of running has preserved him well, as he has outstanding vision. Plus, he knows how to make tacklers miss. Any claims that he was "soft" should have evaporated last year, when he finished his runs more often than ever before, and became more physical and successful in short-yardage situations. Alexander is very smart, as he knows when to elude defenders and avoid a hit, and when to dive into the pile. There simply isn't a better running back for the combination of durability and excellent numbers on an annual basis. He plays in a potent offense that gives him lots of chances to finish off drives with short TD runs. Walter Jones still leads the way at left tackle, and the right side of Seattle's line isn't terrible, either. Even if his numbers slip from last year, he should approach the 20-TD mark. LaDainian Tomlinson is obviously a proven performer, but he tends to get nicked up more than Alexander, and we all know we have to wait and see just how effective Philip Rivers will be. I think the young QB will at least keep defenses honest, but Alexander is the preferred pick here. Ideal Pick: Shaun Alexander. Top Alternative: LaDainian Tomlinson.
Third Pick: Once Johnson and Alexander are off the board, Tomlinson is the obvious choice. There isn't a better RB in fantasy football for the pure combination of great rushing and receiving totals. And don't let the presence of Rivers scare you away. He's a smart young quarterback who already has won the confidence of his teammates, and he won't be the next J.P. Losman. At the least, Rivers should be a respectable game manager who can keep defenses from simply focusing on Tomlinson. And in many pressure situations, he'll use Tomlinson as a safety receiver, and Tomlinson will burn defenses who are overaggressive in their eagerness to blitz the passer. Tomlinson posted terrific numbers a few years ago when Drew Brees appeared to be headed for the trash heap, and L.T. doesn't shy away from extra defensive attention. He simply adjusts and still will get his yardage. He just might not score quite as often as Johnson or Alexander. Ideal Pick: LaDainian Tomlinson. Top Alternatives: Tiki Barber or Clinton Portis if Rivers really scares you. But how could you pass on Tomlinson, really?
Fourth Pick: Like Alexander, Barber is smart and preserves himself well. Yes, he is 31 years old, but he has been a full-time featured back only for the last four years or so, not for his entire career. Plus, you can't ignore the fact that he had his best rushing yardage total ever (1,860) last year when you heard the same whispers about him turning 30 and a possible decline. Barber might not score nearly as often as the top three RBs, but he pads his totals with terrific receiving skills, and he's got at least another fine season or two left in him. Brandon Jacobs will vulture a few goal-line chances, but not all of them, and Barber can score from outside the goal-line area at any time. I wouldn't pass on a proven superstar when he has shown no obvious signs of wearing down yet. Ideal Pick: Tiki Barber. Top Alternative: Clinton Portis.
Fifth Pick: If you simply can't convince yourself to take Barber, Portis is a fine choice. It took him some time, but he eventually adjusted well to leaving Denver and now appears to have more upside and promise in 2005. Fantasy leaguers just want to see more consistent TD production from Portis, like they did during the second half of last season. Reportedly, Portis has trimmed down and new offensive coordinator Al Saunders supposedly will give him more chances to exhibit his breakaway speed. Portis isn't afraid of running inside, either. As long as Mark Brunell stays healthy, Portis should flourish as the crux of a balanced offensive attack. But if Brunell goes down at any point, that could mean more defensive attention and a few disappointing outings. Ideal Pick: Clinton Portis. Top Alternative: Edgerrin James.
Sixth Pick: If Edgerrin James was still with the Colts, he'd be a very good No. 4 pick, but obviously his stock drops with the move to Arizona. It doesn't fall that far, though. Yes, there are still questions about the Arizona offensive line. But if the linemen remain healthy and communicate better with one another this season under new OL coach Steve Loney, the unit could at least perform respectably. And you can't blame all of last season's failures on the line, when J.J. Arrington was way overrated and Marcel Shipp probably would have been as ineffective even behind a better group of blockers. James instantly adds more balance to the Arizona offense and his receiving skills will make him a regular target when the QBs get in trouble. James is much more talented than his predecessors in the backfield and defenses can't give him extra attention because of the Cardinals passing game, which is guaranteed to open up some lanes for the running game. And even if Kurt Warner goes down, Matt Leinart has the poise and outstanding receivers needed to keep the offense playing at a respectable level. James is too good to expect a major drop-off, and while his numbers might slip overall, he shouldn't fall too far on your board. Ideal Pick: Edgerrin James. Top Alternatives: LaMont Jordan, Rudi Johnson.
Seventh Pick: Despite Oakland's struggles last season, Jordan was very impressive in his first year as a featured back. He scored nine times and caught 70 passes as a regular flat pass target for Kerry Collins, who often hesitated to throw downfield in key situations. This season, Jordan should carry the ball more often and you should get better overall rushing totals from him. He's a strong back with deceptive quickness, and his receiving numbers might drop while his rushing totals rise. In the end, he should be good for 1,200 plus rushing yards and double-digit TD totals. And if the Oakland offense continues to sputter under Aaron Brooks, and he can't throw downfield with consistently positive results, you can bet the Raiders can still call on Jordan to catch screen and swing passes often. Jordan will get his numbers no matter how much the Raiders improve in other areas or struggle overall. He's versatile and determined to get his yards, and Jordan is money near the goal line, where he should get more chances this year. Ideal Pick: LaMont Jordan. Top Alternative: Rudi Johnson.
Eighth Pick: Sure, he's not the "sexiest" pick, but Rudi Johnson is one of the most dependable players in fantasy football. He's delivered two consecutive seasons of 1,400-plus yards and 12 TDs. He played through knee problems last year and a recent procedure to clean up the knee should ease any minor concerns his prospective owners have about the issue. Johnson is ultra-tough and doesn't back down from even the toughest opponents. He rushed for 98 yards and two TDs in Week 13 against the Steelers last year. Johnson plays in a potent offense that will continue to give him a lot of chances to finish off scoring drives, and he's simply a safe, smart pick in the second half of the first round. Ideal Pick: Rudi Johnson. Top Alternative: Steven Jackson.
Ninth Pick: You could see Steven Jackson go as early as the fourth pick in some drafts, but I personally prefer to go with a more proven player. Yes, Jackson is expected to get the ball more this season, and that's good news for such a player, who needs regular carries to develop more rhythm. Jackson has a ton of upside, as he has uncanny quickness for a big back and he is very difficult for defenders to bring down once he starts to hit full stride. But Jackson also has to prove he can play well for extended periods, and there are some questions about his durability and stamina that need to be answered. Jackson should be worthy of a first-rounder, but he has to earn a higher draft slot, in my opinion. Ideal Pick: Steven Jackson. Top Alternatives: Peyton Manning, Domanick Davis.
10th Pick: RBs are going to fly off the board quickly, so it's a bold move to not follow the run. But by this point, the one player worth heavy consideration from another position is Peyton Manning. You can take him late in the first round, especially in a 10-team league, because you know you will still have a shot at one of the better running backs when your turn to draft comes in the second round. No other player at quarterback offers the combination of annual above-average production and durability as Manning. You simply know you're going to get outstanding numbers, even if he doesn't approach 40 TD passes, and you'll have complete peace of mind at a position that doesn't have too many superstars. Outside of a healthy Carson Palmer and Tom Brady, most passers are either steady and occasionally spectacular, or have something to prove. In leagues that award six points for a TD pass, Manning becomes even more attractive late in the first round. Just make sure you take RBs in the second and third rounds if you deviate from the RB flow here. Ideal Pick: Peyton Manning. Top Alternatives: Domanick Davis, Ronnie Brown.
Pick 11: There have been regular concerns about Domanick Davis because of injuries. He now is going to be brought along slowly early in training camp because of knee inflammation. But when Davis is healthy, he certainly can produce fine numbers as both a runner and receiver. Much of Davis' past injury issues can be attributed to the fact that he was overworked, as he had little else around him on offense. The Texans won't make great strides on offense this year, but they should be improved, and Davis won't endure the same amount of pounding he has absorbed in past seasons. It's very possible that Davis might get fewer touches per game overall, but that could also help him stay healthy and he could produce quality fantasy totals on a more regular basis in 2006. Ideal Pick: Domanick Davis. Top Alternative: Ronnie Brown.
Pick 12: Like Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown has a lot of upside, but he also has to prove himself over a full campaign. There are some questions whether he can handle the pounding of being a regularly featured back over a full season. Brown likely will quell the doubts, as he will become a focal point of an improved Miami offense, especially if Daunte Culpepper plays most or all of the schedule. He'll prove to be a dependable goal-line runner who will finish off a lot of Miami scoring drives. Plus, his receiving skills should become more apparent this year. It's no stretch to take Brown a pick or two earlier, and he shouldn't fall past this point. Ideal Pick: Ronnie Brown. Top Alternative: Carnell Williams. Other Angles to Consider: Cadillac Williams is easily another good late first-rounder, especially if you decide to pass on Manning or Davis. If your league is larger than 12 teams, follow the RB run, because the best ones will disappear even more quickly. Sure, it's tempting to take a top wide receiver, but if you don't go with the RB flow, you might regret it. Some very good receivers still can be drafted in the third and fourth rounds. In keeper leagues, a lot of RBs likely will be kept, making the ones available in the first round even more valuable. Yes, there are a lot of questions outside the top dozen backs or so, but that will make the best ones disappear seemingly more quickly than ever. In dynasty leagues, make sure that you fill your most pressing need with your first pick over a more glamorous choice that might only be for depth. That's a prime strategy to consider in keeper leagues as well. The lure of trading up into the first round can be great, but I prefer to stay wherever I am initially. If you do your homework, you'll make the best pick you can at any draft slot.
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FFL: Engel's Round One Guide
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<!-- firstName = Scott --><!-- lastName = Engel -->
By Scott Engel
ESPN Fantasy Games
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You've waited since last season ended for this moment. The chance to make your first draft pick of the 2006 season. This will be the cornerstone of your team, the centerpiece of your fantasy "franchise." So, of course, you want to make this choice one to remember, one to carry you all the way to a championship. Even the best players have a few questions surrounding them, so there's no such thing as a "sure thing" at any spot. Here's a guide on which players you should consider at every slot in the first round, with ideal picks and top alternative choices.
First Pick: Do you take the guy with seemingly great upside, or the proven superstar? With the opportunity to be a full-time starter, Larry Johnson could have one of the most unreal seasons we've ever seen. Shaun Alexander is coming off his best season in a very impressive career and is a proven, durable standout. Johnson, however, could challenge or break Alexander's TD record this season. He's that good, and new coach Herm Edwards will tie his offense to Johnson's back. Even if defenses know Johnson is coming, that doesn't mean they'll be able to stop him, and the offensive line is still very solid overall. Alexander might see his numbers drop, but not in a major way. The loss of OG Steve Hutchinson will be felt. Still, Alexander deserves serious consideration at this spot. While Johnson has never been a starter over a full season, I've seen enough of him to have confidence that he'll put up outstanding numbers on a regular basis. Alexander might seem like the safer pick, but I think Johnson is a safe pick as well. He's already been a highly successful starter when given the opportunity. Ideal Pick: Larry Johnson Top Alternative: Shaun Alexander.
Second Pick: If anyone can break the "Madden jinx" it's Alexander. His style of running has preserved him well, as he has outstanding vision. Plus, he knows how to make tacklers miss. Any claims that he was "soft" should have evaporated last year, when he finished his runs more often than ever before, and became more physical and successful in short-yardage situations. Alexander is very smart, as he knows when to elude defenders and avoid a hit, and when to dive into the pile. There simply isn't a better running back for the combination of durability and excellent numbers on an annual basis. He plays in a potent offense that gives him lots of chances to finish off drives with short TD runs. Walter Jones still leads the way at left tackle, and the right side of Seattle's line isn't terrible, either. Even if his numbers slip from last year, he should approach the 20-TD mark. LaDainian Tomlinson is obviously a proven performer, but he tends to get nicked up more than Alexander, and we all know we have to wait and see just how effective Philip Rivers will be. I think the young QB will at least keep defenses honest, but Alexander is the preferred pick here. Ideal Pick: Shaun Alexander. Top Alternative: LaDainian Tomlinson.
Third Pick: Once Johnson and Alexander are off the board, Tomlinson is the obvious choice. There isn't a better RB in fantasy football for the pure combination of great rushing and receiving totals. And don't let the presence of Rivers scare you away. He's a smart young quarterback who already has won the confidence of his teammates, and he won't be the next J.P. Losman. At the least, Rivers should be a respectable game manager who can keep defenses from simply focusing on Tomlinson. And in many pressure situations, he'll use Tomlinson as a safety receiver, and Tomlinson will burn defenses who are overaggressive in their eagerness to blitz the passer. Tomlinson posted terrific numbers a few years ago when Drew Brees appeared to be headed for the trash heap, and L.T. doesn't shy away from extra defensive attention. He simply adjusts and still will get his yardage. He just might not score quite as often as Johnson or Alexander. Ideal Pick: LaDainian Tomlinson. Top Alternatives: Tiki Barber or Clinton Portis if Rivers really scares you. But how could you pass on Tomlinson, really?
Fourth Pick: Like Alexander, Barber is smart and preserves himself well. Yes, he is 31 years old, but he has been a full-time featured back only for the last four years or so, not for his entire career. Plus, you can't ignore the fact that he had his best rushing yardage total ever (1,860) last year when you heard the same whispers about him turning 30 and a possible decline. Barber might not score nearly as often as the top three RBs, but he pads his totals with terrific receiving skills, and he's got at least another fine season or two left in him. Brandon Jacobs will vulture a few goal-line chances, but not all of them, and Barber can score from outside the goal-line area at any time. I wouldn't pass on a proven superstar when he has shown no obvious signs of wearing down yet. Ideal Pick: Tiki Barber. Top Alternative: Clinton Portis.
Fifth Pick: If you simply can't convince yourself to take Barber, Portis is a fine choice. It took him some time, but he eventually adjusted well to leaving Denver and now appears to have more upside and promise in 2005. Fantasy leaguers just want to see more consistent TD production from Portis, like they did during the second half of last season. Reportedly, Portis has trimmed down and new offensive coordinator Al Saunders supposedly will give him more chances to exhibit his breakaway speed. Portis isn't afraid of running inside, either. As long as Mark Brunell stays healthy, Portis should flourish as the crux of a balanced offensive attack. But if Brunell goes down at any point, that could mean more defensive attention and a few disappointing outings. Ideal Pick: Clinton Portis. Top Alternative: Edgerrin James.
Sixth Pick: If Edgerrin James was still with the Colts, he'd be a very good No. 4 pick, but obviously his stock drops with the move to Arizona. It doesn't fall that far, though. Yes, there are still questions about the Arizona offensive line. But if the linemen remain healthy and communicate better with one another this season under new OL coach Steve Loney, the unit could at least perform respectably. And you can't blame all of last season's failures on the line, when J.J. Arrington was way overrated and Marcel Shipp probably would have been as ineffective even behind a better group of blockers. James instantly adds more balance to the Arizona offense and his receiving skills will make him a regular target when the QBs get in trouble. James is much more talented than his predecessors in the backfield and defenses can't give him extra attention because of the Cardinals passing game, which is guaranteed to open up some lanes for the running game. And even if Kurt Warner goes down, Matt Leinart has the poise and outstanding receivers needed to keep the offense playing at a respectable level. James is too good to expect a major drop-off, and while his numbers might slip overall, he shouldn't fall too far on your board. Ideal Pick: Edgerrin James. Top Alternatives: LaMont Jordan, Rudi Johnson.
Seventh Pick: Despite Oakland's struggles last season, Jordan was very impressive in his first year as a featured back. He scored nine times and caught 70 passes as a regular flat pass target for Kerry Collins, who often hesitated to throw downfield in key situations. This season, Jordan should carry the ball more often and you should get better overall rushing totals from him. He's a strong back with deceptive quickness, and his receiving numbers might drop while his rushing totals rise. In the end, he should be good for 1,200 plus rushing yards and double-digit TD totals. And if the Oakland offense continues to sputter under Aaron Brooks, and he can't throw downfield with consistently positive results, you can bet the Raiders can still call on Jordan to catch screen and swing passes often. Jordan will get his numbers no matter how much the Raiders improve in other areas or struggle overall. He's versatile and determined to get his yards, and Jordan is money near the goal line, where he should get more chances this year. Ideal Pick: LaMont Jordan. Top Alternative: Rudi Johnson.
Eighth Pick: Sure, he's not the "sexiest" pick, but Rudi Johnson is one of the most dependable players in fantasy football. He's delivered two consecutive seasons of 1,400-plus yards and 12 TDs. He played through knee problems last year and a recent procedure to clean up the knee should ease any minor concerns his prospective owners have about the issue. Johnson is ultra-tough and doesn't back down from even the toughest opponents. He rushed for 98 yards and two TDs in Week 13 against the Steelers last year. Johnson plays in a potent offense that will continue to give him a lot of chances to finish off scoring drives, and he's simply a safe, smart pick in the second half of the first round. Ideal Pick: Rudi Johnson. Top Alternative: Steven Jackson.
Ninth Pick: You could see Steven Jackson go as early as the fourth pick in some drafts, but I personally prefer to go with a more proven player. Yes, Jackson is expected to get the ball more this season, and that's good news for such a player, who needs regular carries to develop more rhythm. Jackson has a ton of upside, as he has uncanny quickness for a big back and he is very difficult for defenders to bring down once he starts to hit full stride. But Jackson also has to prove he can play well for extended periods, and there are some questions about his durability and stamina that need to be answered. Jackson should be worthy of a first-rounder, but he has to earn a higher draft slot, in my opinion. Ideal Pick: Steven Jackson. Top Alternatives: Peyton Manning, Domanick Davis.
10th Pick: RBs are going to fly off the board quickly, so it's a bold move to not follow the run. But by this point, the one player worth heavy consideration from another position is Peyton Manning. You can take him late in the first round, especially in a 10-team league, because you know you will still have a shot at one of the better running backs when your turn to draft comes in the second round. No other player at quarterback offers the combination of annual above-average production and durability as Manning. You simply know you're going to get outstanding numbers, even if he doesn't approach 40 TD passes, and you'll have complete peace of mind at a position that doesn't have too many superstars. Outside of a healthy Carson Palmer and Tom Brady, most passers are either steady and occasionally spectacular, or have something to prove. In leagues that award six points for a TD pass, Manning becomes even more attractive late in the first round. Just make sure you take RBs in the second and third rounds if you deviate from the RB flow here. Ideal Pick: Peyton Manning. Top Alternatives: Domanick Davis, Ronnie Brown.
Pick 11: There have been regular concerns about Domanick Davis because of injuries. He now is going to be brought along slowly early in training camp because of knee inflammation. But when Davis is healthy, he certainly can produce fine numbers as both a runner and receiver. Much of Davis' past injury issues can be attributed to the fact that he was overworked, as he had little else around him on offense. The Texans won't make great strides on offense this year, but they should be improved, and Davis won't endure the same amount of pounding he has absorbed in past seasons. It's very possible that Davis might get fewer touches per game overall, but that could also help him stay healthy and he could produce quality fantasy totals on a more regular basis in 2006. Ideal Pick: Domanick Davis. Top Alternative: Ronnie Brown.
Pick 12: Like Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown has a lot of upside, but he also has to prove himself over a full campaign. There are some questions whether he can handle the pounding of being a regularly featured back over a full season. Brown likely will quell the doubts, as he will become a focal point of an improved Miami offense, especially if Daunte Culpepper plays most or all of the schedule. He'll prove to be a dependable goal-line runner who will finish off a lot of Miami scoring drives. Plus, his receiving skills should become more apparent this year. It's no stretch to take Brown a pick or two earlier, and he shouldn't fall past this point. Ideal Pick: Ronnie Brown. Top Alternative: Carnell Williams. Other Angles to Consider: Cadillac Williams is easily another good late first-rounder, especially if you decide to pass on Manning or Davis. If your league is larger than 12 teams, follow the RB run, because the best ones will disappear even more quickly. Sure, it's tempting to take a top wide receiver, but if you don't go with the RB flow, you might regret it. Some very good receivers still can be drafted in the third and fourth rounds. In keeper leagues, a lot of RBs likely will be kept, making the ones available in the first round even more valuable. Yes, there are a lot of questions outside the top dozen backs or so, but that will make the best ones disappear seemingly more quickly than ever. In dynasty leagues, make sure that you fill your most pressing need with your first pick over a more glamorous choice that might only be for depth. That's a prime strategy to consider in keeper leagues as well. The lure of trading up into the first round can be great, but I prefer to stay wherever I am initially. If you do your homework, you'll make the best pick you can at any draft slot.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Jul. 26, 2006, 1:48 PM
FFL: Engel's Round One Guide
<!-- end pagetitle --><!-- begin bylinebox -->
<!-- firstName = Scott --><!-- lastName = Engel -->
By Scott Engel
ESPN Fantasy Games
<!-- begin presby2 -->
<!-- end presby2 -->
<!-- end bylinebox -->
<!-- begin text11 div --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-TOP: 10px" vAlign=top><!-- begin leftcol --><!-- template inline -->
You've waited since last season ended for this moment. The chance to make your first draft pick of the 2006 season. This will be the cornerstone of your team, the centerpiece of your fantasy "franchise." So, of course, you want to make this choice one to remember, one to carry you all the way to a championship. Even the best players have a few questions surrounding them, so there's no such thing as a "sure thing" at any spot. Here's a guide on which players you should consider at every slot in the first round, with ideal picks and top alternative choices.
First Pick: Do you take the guy with seemingly great upside, or the proven superstar? With the opportunity to be a full-time starter, Larry Johnson could have one of the most unreal seasons we've ever seen. Shaun Alexander is coming off his best season in a very impressive career and is a proven, durable standout. Johnson, however, could challenge or break Alexander's TD record this season. He's that good, and new coach Herm Edwards will tie his offense to Johnson's back. Even if defenses know Johnson is coming, that doesn't mean they'll be able to stop him, and the offensive line is still very solid overall. Alexander might see his numbers drop, but not in a major way. The loss of OG Steve Hutchinson will be felt. Still, Alexander deserves serious consideration at this spot. While Johnson has never been a starter over a full season, I've seen enough of him to have confidence that he'll put up outstanding numbers on a regular basis. Alexander might seem like the safer pick, but I think Johnson is a safe pick as well. He's already been a highly successful starter when given the opportunity. Ideal Pick: Larry Johnson Top Alternative: Shaun Alexander.
Second Pick: If anyone can break the "Madden jinx" it's Alexander. His style of running has preserved him well, as he has outstanding vision. Plus, he knows how to make tacklers miss. Any claims that he was "soft" should have evaporated last year, when he finished his runs more often than ever before, and became more physical and successful in short-yardage situations. Alexander is very smart, as he knows when to elude defenders and avoid a hit, and when to dive into the pile. There simply isn't a better running back for the combination of durability and excellent numbers on an annual basis. He plays in a potent offense that gives him lots of chances to finish off drives with short TD runs. Walter Jones still leads the way at left tackle, and the right side of Seattle's line isn't terrible, either. Even if his numbers slip from last year, he should approach the 20-TD mark. LaDainian Tomlinson is obviously a proven performer, but he tends to get nicked up more than Alexander, and we all know we have to wait and see just how effective Philip Rivers will be. I think the young QB will at least keep defenses honest, but Alexander is the preferred pick here. Ideal Pick: Shaun Alexander. Top Alternative: LaDainian Tomlinson.
Third Pick: Once Johnson and Alexander are off the board, Tomlinson is the obvious choice. There isn't a better RB in fantasy football for the pure combination of great rushing and receiving totals. And don't let the presence of Rivers scare you away. He's a smart young quarterback who already has won the confidence of his teammates, and he won't be the next J.P. Losman. At the least, Rivers should be a respectable game manager who can keep defenses from simply focusing on Tomlinson. And in many pressure situations, he'll use Tomlinson as a safety receiver, and Tomlinson will burn defenses who are overaggressive in their eagerness to blitz the passer. Tomlinson posted terrific numbers a few years ago when Drew Brees appeared to be headed for the trash heap, and L.T. doesn't shy away from extra defensive attention. He simply adjusts and still will get his yardage. He just might not score quite as often as Johnson or Alexander. Ideal Pick: LaDainian Tomlinson. Top Alternatives: Tiki Barber or Clinton Portis if Rivers really scares you. But how could you pass on Tomlinson, really?
Fourth Pick: Like Alexander, Barber is smart and preserves himself well. Yes, he is 31 years old, but he has been a full-time featured back only for the last four years or so, not for his entire career. Plus, you can't ignore the fact that he had his best rushing yardage total ever (1,860) last year when you heard the same whispers about him turning 30 and a possible decline. Barber might not score nearly as often as the top three RBs, but he pads his totals with terrific receiving skills, and he's got at least another fine season or two left in him. Brandon Jacobs will vulture a few goal-line chances, but not all of them, and Barber can score from outside the goal-line area at any time. I wouldn't pass on a proven superstar when he has shown no obvious signs of wearing down yet. Ideal Pick: Tiki Barber. Top Alternative: Clinton Portis.
Fifth Pick: If you simply can't convince yourself to take Barber, Portis is a fine choice. It took him some time, but he eventually adjusted well to leaving Denver and now appears to have more upside and promise in 2005. Fantasy leaguers just want to see more consistent TD production from Portis, like they did during the second half of last season. Reportedly, Portis has trimmed down and new offensive coordinator Al Saunders supposedly will give him more chances to exhibit his breakaway speed. Portis isn't afraid of running inside, either. As long as Mark Brunell stays healthy, Portis should flourish as the crux of a balanced offensive attack. But if Brunell goes down at any point, that could mean more defensive attention and a few disappointing outings. Ideal Pick: Clinton Portis. Top Alternative: Edgerrin James.
Sixth Pick: If Edgerrin James was still with the Colts, he'd be a very good No. 4 pick, but obviously his stock drops with the move to Arizona. It doesn't fall that far, though. Yes, there are still questions about the Arizona offensive line. But if the linemen remain healthy and communicate better with one another this season under new OL coach Steve Loney, the unit could at least perform respectably. And you can't blame all of last season's failures on the line, when J.J. Arrington was way overrated and Marcel Shipp probably would have been as ineffective even behind a better group of blockers. James instantly adds more balance to the Arizona offense and his receiving skills will make him a regular target when the QBs get in trouble. James is much more talented than his predecessors in the backfield and defenses can't give him extra attention because of the Cardinals passing game, which is guaranteed to open up some lanes for the running game. And even if Kurt Warner goes down, Matt Leinart has the poise and outstanding receivers needed to keep the offense playing at a respectable level. James is too good to expect a major drop-off, and while his numbers might slip overall, he shouldn't fall too far on your board. Ideal Pick: Edgerrin James. Top Alternatives: LaMont Jordan, Rudi Johnson.
Seventh Pick: Despite Oakland's struggles last season, Jordan was very impressive in his first year as a featured back. He scored nine times and caught 70 passes as a regular flat pass target for Kerry Collins, who often hesitated to throw downfield in key situations. This season, Jordan should carry the ball more often and you should get better overall rushing totals from him. He's a strong back with deceptive quickness, and his receiving numbers might drop while his rushing totals rise. In the end, he should be good for 1,200 plus rushing yards and double-digit TD totals. And if the Oakland offense continues to sputter under Aaron Brooks, and he can't throw downfield with consistently positive results, you can bet the Raiders can still call on Jordan to catch screen and swing passes often. Jordan will get his numbers no matter how much the Raiders improve in other areas or struggle overall. He's versatile and determined to get his yards, and Jordan is money near the goal line, where he should get more chances this year. Ideal Pick: LaMont Jordan. Top Alternative: Rudi Johnson.
Eighth Pick: Sure, he's not the "sexiest" pick, but Rudi Johnson is one of the most dependable players in fantasy football. He's delivered two consecutive seasons of 1,400-plus yards and 12 TDs. He played through knee problems last year and a recent procedure to clean up the knee should ease any minor concerns his prospective owners have about the issue. Johnson is ultra-tough and doesn't back down from even the toughest opponents. He rushed for 98 yards and two TDs in Week 13 against the Steelers last year. Johnson plays in a potent offense that will continue to give him a lot of chances to finish off scoring drives, and he's simply a safe, smart pick in the second half of the first round. Ideal Pick: Rudi Johnson. Top Alternative: Steven Jackson.
Ninth Pick: You could see Steven Jackson go as early as the fourth pick in some drafts, but I personally prefer to go with a more proven player. Yes, Jackson is expected to get the ball more this season, and that's good news for such a player, who needs regular carries to develop more rhythm. Jackson has a ton of upside, as he has uncanny quickness for a big back and he is very difficult for defenders to bring down once he starts to hit full stride. But Jackson also has to prove he can play well for extended periods, and there are some questions about his durability and stamina that need to be answered. Jackson should be worthy of a first-rounder, but he has to earn a higher draft slot, in my opinion. Ideal Pick: Steven Jackson. Top Alternatives: Peyton Manning, Domanick Davis.
10th Pick: RBs are going to fly off the board quickly, so it's a bold move to not follow the run. But by this point, the one player worth heavy consideration from another position is Peyton Manning. You can take him late in the first round, especially in a 10-team league, because you know you will still have a shot at one of the better running backs when your turn to draft comes in the second round. No other player at quarterback offers the combination of annual above-average production and durability as Manning. You simply know you're going to get outstanding numbers, even if he doesn't approach 40 TD passes, and you'll have complete peace of mind at a position that doesn't have too many superstars. Outside of a healthy Carson Palmer and Tom Brady, most passers are either steady and occasionally spectacular, or have something to prove. In leagues that award six points for a TD pass, Manning becomes even more attractive late in the first round. Just make sure you take RBs in the second and third rounds if you deviate from the RB flow here. Ideal Pick: Peyton Manning. Top Alternatives: Domanick Davis, Ronnie Brown.
Pick 11: There have been regular concerns about Domanick Davis because of injuries. He now is going to be brought along slowly early in training camp because of knee inflammation. But when Davis is healthy, he certainly can produce fine numbers as both a runner and receiver. Much of Davis' past injury issues can be attributed to the fact that he was overworked, as he had little else around him on offense. The Texans won't make great strides on offense this year, but they should be improved, and Davis won't endure the same amount of pounding he has absorbed in past seasons. It's very possible that Davis might get fewer touches per game overall, but that could also help him stay healthy and he could produce quality fantasy totals on a more regular basis in 2006. Ideal Pick: Domanick Davis. Top Alternative: Ronnie Brown.
Pick 12: Like Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown has a lot of upside, but he also has to prove himself over a full campaign. There are some questions whether he can handle the pounding of being a regularly featured back over a full season. Brown likely will quell the doubts, as he will become a focal point of an improved Miami offense, especially if Daunte Culpepper plays most or all of the schedule. He'll prove to be a dependable goal-line runner who will finish off a lot of Miami scoring drives. Plus, his receiving skills should become more apparent this year. It's no stretch to take Brown a pick or two earlier, and he shouldn't fall past this point. Ideal Pick: Ronnie Brown. Top Alternative: Carnell Williams. Other Angles to Consider: Cadillac Williams is easily another good late first-rounder, especially if you decide to pass on Manning or Davis. If your league is larger than 12 teams, follow the RB run, because the best ones will disappear even more quickly. Sure, it's tempting to take a top wide receiver, but if you don't go with the RB flow, you might regret it. Some very good receivers still can be drafted in the third and fourth rounds. In keeper leagues, a lot of RBs likely will be kept, making the ones available in the first round even more valuable. Yes, there are a lot of questions outside the top dozen backs or so, but that will make the best ones disappear seemingly more quickly than ever. In dynasty leagues, make sure that you fill your most pressing need with your first pick over a more glamorous choice that might only be for depth. That's a prime strategy to consider in keeper leagues as well. The lure of trading up into the first round can be great, but I prefer to stay wherever I am initially. If you do your homework, you'll make the best pick you can at any draft slot.
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FFL: Engel's Round One Guide
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By Scott Engel
ESPN Fantasy Games
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You've waited since last season ended for this moment. The chance to make your first draft pick of the 2006 season. This will be the cornerstone of your team, the centerpiece of your fantasy "franchise." So, of course, you want to make this choice one to remember, one to carry you all the way to a championship. Even the best players have a few questions surrounding them, so there's no such thing as a "sure thing" at any spot. Here's a guide on which players you should consider at every slot in the first round, with ideal picks and top alternative choices.
First Pick: Do you take the guy with seemingly great upside, or the proven superstar? With the opportunity to be a full-time starter, Larry Johnson could have one of the most unreal seasons we've ever seen. Shaun Alexander is coming off his best season in a very impressive career and is a proven, durable standout. Johnson, however, could challenge or break Alexander's TD record this season. He's that good, and new coach Herm Edwards will tie his offense to Johnson's back. Even if defenses know Johnson is coming, that doesn't mean they'll be able to stop him, and the offensive line is still very solid overall. Alexander might see his numbers drop, but not in a major way. The loss of OG Steve Hutchinson will be felt. Still, Alexander deserves serious consideration at this spot. While Johnson has never been a starter over a full season, I've seen enough of him to have confidence that he'll put up outstanding numbers on a regular basis. Alexander might seem like the safer pick, but I think Johnson is a safe pick as well. He's already been a highly successful starter when given the opportunity. Ideal Pick: Larry Johnson Top Alternative: Shaun Alexander.
Second Pick: If anyone can break the "Madden jinx" it's Alexander. His style of running has preserved him well, as he has outstanding vision. Plus, he knows how to make tacklers miss. Any claims that he was "soft" should have evaporated last year, when he finished his runs more often than ever before, and became more physical and successful in short-yardage situations. Alexander is very smart, as he knows when to elude defenders and avoid a hit, and when to dive into the pile. There simply isn't a better running back for the combination of durability and excellent numbers on an annual basis. He plays in a potent offense that gives him lots of chances to finish off drives with short TD runs. Walter Jones still leads the way at left tackle, and the right side of Seattle's line isn't terrible, either. Even if his numbers slip from last year, he should approach the 20-TD mark. LaDainian Tomlinson is obviously a proven performer, but he tends to get nicked up more than Alexander, and we all know we have to wait and see just how effective Philip Rivers will be. I think the young QB will at least keep defenses honest, but Alexander is the preferred pick here. Ideal Pick: Shaun Alexander. Top Alternative: LaDainian Tomlinson.
Third Pick: Once Johnson and Alexander are off the board, Tomlinson is the obvious choice. There isn't a better RB in fantasy football for the pure combination of great rushing and receiving totals. And don't let the presence of Rivers scare you away. He's a smart young quarterback who already has won the confidence of his teammates, and he won't be the next J.P. Losman. At the least, Rivers should be a respectable game manager who can keep defenses from simply focusing on Tomlinson. And in many pressure situations, he'll use Tomlinson as a safety receiver, and Tomlinson will burn defenses who are overaggressive in their eagerness to blitz the passer. Tomlinson posted terrific numbers a few years ago when Drew Brees appeared to be headed for the trash heap, and L.T. doesn't shy away from extra defensive attention. He simply adjusts and still will get his yardage. He just might not score quite as often as Johnson or Alexander. Ideal Pick: LaDainian Tomlinson. Top Alternatives: Tiki Barber or Clinton Portis if Rivers really scares you. But how could you pass on Tomlinson, really?
Fourth Pick: Like Alexander, Barber is smart and preserves himself well. Yes, he is 31 years old, but he has been a full-time featured back only for the last four years or so, not for his entire career. Plus, you can't ignore the fact that he had his best rushing yardage total ever (1,860) last year when you heard the same whispers about him turning 30 and a possible decline. Barber might not score nearly as often as the top three RBs, but he pads his totals with terrific receiving skills, and he's got at least another fine season or two left in him. Brandon Jacobs will vulture a few goal-line chances, but not all of them, and Barber can score from outside the goal-line area at any time. I wouldn't pass on a proven superstar when he has shown no obvious signs of wearing down yet. Ideal Pick: Tiki Barber. Top Alternative: Clinton Portis.
Fifth Pick: If you simply can't convince yourself to take Barber, Portis is a fine choice. It took him some time, but he eventually adjusted well to leaving Denver and now appears to have more upside and promise in 2005. Fantasy leaguers just want to see more consistent TD production from Portis, like they did during the second half of last season. Reportedly, Portis has trimmed down and new offensive coordinator Al Saunders supposedly will give him more chances to exhibit his breakaway speed. Portis isn't afraid of running inside, either. As long as Mark Brunell stays healthy, Portis should flourish as the crux of a balanced offensive attack. But if Brunell goes down at any point, that could mean more defensive attention and a few disappointing outings. Ideal Pick: Clinton Portis. Top Alternative: Edgerrin James.
Sixth Pick: If Edgerrin James was still with the Colts, he'd be a very good No. 4 pick, but obviously his stock drops with the move to Arizona. It doesn't fall that far, though. Yes, there are still questions about the Arizona offensive line. But if the linemen remain healthy and communicate better with one another this season under new OL coach Steve Loney, the unit could at least perform respectably. And you can't blame all of last season's failures on the line, when J.J. Arrington was way overrated and Marcel Shipp probably would have been as ineffective even behind a better group of blockers. James instantly adds more balance to the Arizona offense and his receiving skills will make him a regular target when the QBs get in trouble. James is much more talented than his predecessors in the backfield and defenses can't give him extra attention because of the Cardinals passing game, which is guaranteed to open up some lanes for the running game. And even if Kurt Warner goes down, Matt Leinart has the poise and outstanding receivers needed to keep the offense playing at a respectable level. James is too good to expect a major drop-off, and while his numbers might slip overall, he shouldn't fall too far on your board. Ideal Pick: Edgerrin James. Top Alternatives: LaMont Jordan, Rudi Johnson.
Seventh Pick: Despite Oakland's struggles last season, Jordan was very impressive in his first year as a featured back. He scored nine times and caught 70 passes as a regular flat pass target for Kerry Collins, who often hesitated to throw downfield in key situations. This season, Jordan should carry the ball more often and you should get better overall rushing totals from him. He's a strong back with deceptive quickness, and his receiving numbers might drop while his rushing totals rise. In the end, he should be good for 1,200 plus rushing yards and double-digit TD totals. And if the Oakland offense continues to sputter under Aaron Brooks, and he can't throw downfield with consistently positive results, you can bet the Raiders can still call on Jordan to catch screen and swing passes often. Jordan will get his numbers no matter how much the Raiders improve in other areas or struggle overall. He's versatile and determined to get his yards, and Jordan is money near the goal line, where he should get more chances this year. Ideal Pick: LaMont Jordan. Top Alternative: Rudi Johnson.
Eighth Pick: Sure, he's not the "sexiest" pick, but Rudi Johnson is one of the most dependable players in fantasy football. He's delivered two consecutive seasons of 1,400-plus yards and 12 TDs. He played through knee problems last year and a recent procedure to clean up the knee should ease any minor concerns his prospective owners have about the issue. Johnson is ultra-tough and doesn't back down from even the toughest opponents. He rushed for 98 yards and two TDs in Week 13 against the Steelers last year. Johnson plays in a potent offense that will continue to give him a lot of chances to finish off scoring drives, and he's simply a safe, smart pick in the second half of the first round. Ideal Pick: Rudi Johnson. Top Alternative: Steven Jackson.
Ninth Pick: You could see Steven Jackson go as early as the fourth pick in some drafts, but I personally prefer to go with a more proven player. Yes, Jackson is expected to get the ball more this season, and that's good news for such a player, who needs regular carries to develop more rhythm. Jackson has a ton of upside, as he has uncanny quickness for a big back and he is very difficult for defenders to bring down once he starts to hit full stride. But Jackson also has to prove he can play well for extended periods, and there are some questions about his durability and stamina that need to be answered. Jackson should be worthy of a first-rounder, but he has to earn a higher draft slot, in my opinion. Ideal Pick: Steven Jackson. Top Alternatives: Peyton Manning, Domanick Davis.
10th Pick: RBs are going to fly off the board quickly, so it's a bold move to not follow the run. But by this point, the one player worth heavy consideration from another position is Peyton Manning. You can take him late in the first round, especially in a 10-team league, because you know you will still have a shot at one of the better running backs when your turn to draft comes in the second round. No other player at quarterback offers the combination of annual above-average production and durability as Manning. You simply know you're going to get outstanding numbers, even if he doesn't approach 40 TD passes, and you'll have complete peace of mind at a position that doesn't have too many superstars. Outside of a healthy Carson Palmer and Tom Brady, most passers are either steady and occasionally spectacular, or have something to prove. In leagues that award six points for a TD pass, Manning becomes even more attractive late in the first round. Just make sure you take RBs in the second and third rounds if you deviate from the RB flow here. Ideal Pick: Peyton Manning. Top Alternatives: Domanick Davis, Ronnie Brown.
Pick 11: There have been regular concerns about Domanick Davis because of injuries. He now is going to be brought along slowly early in training camp because of knee inflammation. But when Davis is healthy, he certainly can produce fine numbers as both a runner and receiver. Much of Davis' past injury issues can be attributed to the fact that he was overworked, as he had little else around him on offense. The Texans won't make great strides on offense this year, but they should be improved, and Davis won't endure the same amount of pounding he has absorbed in past seasons. It's very possible that Davis might get fewer touches per game overall, but that could also help him stay healthy and he could produce quality fantasy totals on a more regular basis in 2006. Ideal Pick: Domanick Davis. Top Alternative: Ronnie Brown.
Pick 12: Like Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown has a lot of upside, but he also has to prove himself over a full campaign. There are some questions whether he can handle the pounding of being a regularly featured back over a full season. Brown likely will quell the doubts, as he will become a focal point of an improved Miami offense, especially if Daunte Culpepper plays most or all of the schedule. He'll prove to be a dependable goal-line runner who will finish off a lot of Miami scoring drives. Plus, his receiving skills should become more apparent this year. It's no stretch to take Brown a pick or two earlier, and he shouldn't fall past this point. Ideal Pick: Ronnie Brown. Top Alternative: Carnell Williams. Other Angles to Consider: Cadillac Williams is easily another good late first-rounder, especially if you decide to pass on Manning or Davis. If your league is larger than 12 teams, follow the RB run, because the best ones will disappear even more quickly. Sure, it's tempting to take a top wide receiver, but if you don't go with the RB flow, you might regret it. Some very good receivers still can be drafted in the third and fourth rounds. In keeper leagues, a lot of RBs likely will be kept, making the ones available in the first round even more valuable. Yes, there are a lot of questions outside the top dozen backs or so, but that will make the best ones disappear seemingly more quickly than ever. In dynasty leagues, make sure that you fill your most pressing need with your first pick over a more glamorous choice that might only be for depth. That's a prime strategy to consider in keeper leagues as well. The lure of trading up into the first round can be great, but I prefer to stay wherever I am initially. If you do your homework, you'll make the best pick you can at any draft slot.
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