NFL player prop thread

[Valuist]

I've bet a number. Who needs fantasy leagues when one can pick and choose when to back/or bet against, a given player?

Matt Ryan under 3900.5 pass yards. I'm not a believer that an aging Ryan is going to be the savior. And even if he IS good, will it translate to pass yards? Weak receivers & Taylor is a great RB. If they get a lead, its run time.
Jalen Hurts under 3600.5 pass yards (-130). I saw a 3450.5 out there for him, so this is just taking advantage of a good number. I did well betting on/against Hurts in props last year.
Carson Wentz over 9 1/2 interceptions (-125) I'm not against Wentz as much as most, but there's an 11 1/2 out there so had to take advantage of the number.
Adam Theilen over 750 1/2 receiving yards. I think this is my only "play on" a player. Yes, Jefferson is good but I don't see the discrepancy between the two as big as the market suggests. If he's healthy, it wins.
Justin Fields over 14 1/2 interceptions thrown (-125). It feels like the Bears are tanking this year and the only question is can Fields stay sound. Still, an OL terrible at pass protection and a WR corps weakened losing Allen Robinsn. Barring injury, it flies over.
Khalil Mack under 10 sacks. He's getting up in age and I don't think he can stay healthy enough to get to double digits in sacks.

Didn't pull the trigger on under bets for passing yardage for both Brady and Rodgers, but was very tempted. I think there will be good opportunities w/Green Bay on a weekly basis to play Aaron Jones over in receiving yards, and against the WRs. I also think they will run the ball more and Dillon will be a prime beneficiary in rush yards.

 

[John Kelly]

FanDuel and DraftKings knew exactly what they were doing when they entered the fantasy sports market.

Authorities dismissed fantasy sports as a neighborhood pool that hurts no one.

The league element to fantasy sports gave a collegial feel to the process.

Now, FanDuel and DraftKings dominate the sports betting market.

Slick, very slick.

 

[Sleepy]

Fezzik says that 60% of the full season props go under because of the injury factor.

 

[FairWarning]

Fezzik says that 60% of the full season props go under because of the injury factor.

If you bet the under on the top 10 RB's going into last year by fantasy projections, you would have been 8-2. The totals are lower this year.

 

[Heim]

Team prop

Chicago Bears are -110 each way to finish last.

There has to be value on the 'no' with the Lions
in the division despite the hype. The defense still
looked formidable to me in NFLX.

 

[FairWarning]

Ekeler under 13 total TD's looks good. The Chargers want to cut back on his usage, and Sony Michele may cut back on his goalline carries. There are a lot of mouths to feed in that offense.
Connor over 9 rush TD's -130 - He's the only real option in AZ, he scored 17 last year. Basically betting on health here.
N Harris over 8.5 rush TD's -130. Pitt may want to grind it out until a QB steps up. Harris is their only viable option also.

 

[choslamshe]

Like some of those FW. I'm large on Brady under pretty much all of his regular season stats (Yards, TDs). Any one of these years he either suffers a huge dropoff or injuries take him away from at least a couple of games. I know he's been ironman to date. Won't surprise me for this to be an increasinly run-heavy offense each passing week.

 

[Valuist]

Darren Waller of the Raiders signed a $51 million extension today. He becomes an automatic under play for receiving yards in week 1, currently listed at 49 1/2 on Fan Duel.

Probably was a good under bet before this, with Carr likely to try to target his old buddy Adams often. But I love betting against guys right after they sign a big contract.

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

Ekeler under 13 total TD's looks good. The Chargers want to cut back on his usage, and Sony Michele may cut back on his goalline carries. There are a lot of mouths to feed in that offense.
Connor over 9 rush TD's -130 - He's the only real option in AZ, he scored 17 last year. Basically betting on health here.
N Harris over 8.5 rush TD's -130. Pitt may want to grind it out until a QB steps up. Harris is their only viable option also.

If Ekeler stays healthy I can see him with over 13…and rather easily

 

[winkyduck]

I made these 3 plays at DK earlier:

All 3 WR to have at least ONE game of 200 yards receiving - all I need is ONE to make money and I am as close to 100% certain that happens as one can get. Nice thing about the 3 WR props is I could hit them in Week 1..........but if not I have 16 more games to go:

JChase +450
JJefferson +500
DAdams +600

........and then a few others:

Will Derrick Henry have at least 2 games rushing for OVER 149.5 yards: YES +200

Finally this one: Longest FG Ov62.5 +110

 

[Valuist]

There's a few head scratchers on the DK board. I won't go into specifics yet but if one had a spreadsheet listing various player props from 2021, it appears in most cases, they just made numbers as if it was week 18 of 2021.

 

[Valuist]

What does Belichek figure to do? Try to neutralize Tyreek Hill. Hill expects to get a lot of double coverage and I can see a receiver like Gesicki being a beneficiary. 27 1/2 yards? Have to go over that. He was 23 1/2 in the opener last year, then in the 40s for the rest of the season.