NFL Week 14

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#1
Some random notes;

Atlanta has only forced a turnover in just 4 of 12 games.

Buffalo pass D has only had two games all season where the opposing QB had a rating of over 100. No team has gained over 6 yards/play in any game against them.
Since the start of October, Buffalo has only committed three total turnovers.

Carolina has been outgained in yards/play in their last 7 consecutive games. Letting go of the rope?

Chicago pass defense has only allowed one QB (Bridgewater) to have a single game QB rating of over 100.

Cincinnati D has been making slow, but steady progress. From the Oct 6 game vs Arizona they have given up 514, 497, 460, 470, 379, 386, 339 and 271 yards

QB's Cleveland has faced in their last 5 games: Duck Hodges, Fitzpatrick, Rudolph, Josh Allen and Brandon Allen.

Dallas hasn't forced a single turnover in their last 4 games. Dallas has won the yards/play battle in all but one game (vs Jets) all season.

Brissett hasn't had a QB rating for a game higher than 78 in his last 4 games.

Jacksonville D last 3 games: 103 points allowed, 557 rush yards allowed. Jags also have committed over 300 yards in penalties in those 3 games.

Miami has only had one game all year with over 100 rush yards and only one game where they forced more than 1 turnover.

Minnesota defense has been on the field for over 70 plays in each of their last three games.
 
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#2
good read here. especially the cincinnati defense info. 8.5 is a big margin for cleveland with a total of 40.5

boy that sets up for a cincy 3 point win.

pleaser game #1
 

kane

EOG master
#4
Here's something I came across that's pretty amazing. Tom Brady is 29-3 ATS after a loss, either as a dog or when favored by less than a TD
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#6
Tenn points per game with Tannehill starting: 29.7 points/game; when Mariota starts: 16.3
Tenn pts allowed when Tannehill starts: 23.7; points/game allowed when Mariota starts: 15.3
Tampa Bay red zone D; allowed TDs in 76% of red zone possessions between weeks 3 and 9. Has allowed only 33% TDs in red zone D in their last 4.
Tampa has led 65 more minutes than they've trailed this year, despite their sub .500 record.
San Fran only 97 total offensive plays in their last 2 games. Their opponents have run 132 plays in those two games.
Pittsburgh D has allowed under 300 total yards in 4 of their last 5 games.
Oakland points scored from Nov 3 on: 31, 26, 17, 3, 9

Letting go of the rope candidates:

Jacksonville- the last 3 games have been horrific
Carolina- maybe firing Rivera will shake them up
Philadelphia- several Dallas losses and the division was theirs for the taking, and they lose at Miami
Oakland- all that travel and tough schedule early has caught up with them
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#7
That was a misleading final last night. 31-24.....one score game. Nonsense. It was 31-13 with under 5 minutes in the game. The Bears get a little bump in power ratings and I now have them 1.5 points above average. Dallas is a conundrum as their year to date stats are still very strong; much better than a 6-7 team. But they are now 1-4 in their last 5 with the lone win coming over a Jeff Driskel led Lions team. They have only led for 9 minutes combined in their last 3 games, while trailing for 118 minutes. Their defense has been horrific; they've allowed the following game QB passing ratings: Trubisky 115.5 Josh Allen 120, Driskel 109 and Cousins 111.5. They held an aging Brady to 71 but that game was played in bad conditions with heavy rain and high winds. Their run D has allowed over 100 rush yards now in 7 straight games.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#9
That Tenn over streak is in jeopardy this week if Henry is limited.
I'm may beg to differ. The big change has been throwing a lot more with the switch from Mariota to Tannehill. Many more clock stoppages and possibilities of big plays. Of course, the Oakland offense would have to show up, which they haven't done recently.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#10
All right class, take out your test copies and let's review a few things.

Most misleading final: Denver 38 Houston 24. This result was never in doubt at any point. Denver opened up a 38-3 lead in the third quarter and have to believe whatever Houston accomplished after that was against a softish, prevent defense.

Tampa Bay was minus 3 in turnovers AND committed over 100 yards in penalties AND STILL WON. That is amazing. Tampa put up over 500 yards of offense against a Colts team that could be in free fall.

With so many talent challenged teams in the NFL, is there a worse team right now that Jacksonville? They really embody the image of a team that has really let go of the rope. Not a careful slide off, but just face planted themselves into the sand. The organization is an embarrassment now. At least teams like Miami and Washington are putting forth legitimate efforts.

Speaking of giving up, did anyone really believe that firing Rivera would wake up Carolina? This defense is so bad right now, they have given up over 6 yards/play in 6 of their last 7, with the only outlier being 5.7 against Atlanta in a game they lost 29-3.

I saw bits and pieces of the Cleveland/Cincinnati game. Mayfield had an awful game, posting a 39 passer rating and the Browns only put up 279 yards. How did they get 27 points? THe Bengals were only 1 of 5 in the red zone; likely the difference between winning and losing.

Congrats Green Bay on a less than inspiring 5 point home win over the hapless Redskins.

If Winston could cut his INTs in half, how good would the Bucs be? I would say a top 5 team. They are dominating teams at the line of scrimmage. Nobody runs on them and they win the yardage battle, total and yards/play, nearly every week.

If exacta wagering were allowed on NFL MVP award, I would hammer one ticket: Lamar Jackson 1st with Tannehill 2nd. That's right, Tannehill. The turnaround of Tennessee has been amazing since they made the switch.
 
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Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#11
I saw Miami scored 21 points and just figured it was a conventional blackjack, 3 TDs. Nope. They were dealt seven 3s. They were 0 for 6 in the red zone. And only lost by 1 point. They have the rare road trip that Buffalo had earlier in the season; playing both NY teams back to back in the Meadowlands. I assume they are staying the week there? If so, any cold weather factor should be minimized.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#12
I saw Miami scored 21 points and just figured it was a conventional blackjack, 3 TDs. Nope. They were dealt seven 3s. They were 0 for 6 in the red zone. And only lost by 1 point. They have the rare road trip that Buffalo had earlier in the season; playing both NY teams back to back in the Meadowlands. I assume they are staying the week there? If so, any cold weather factor should be minimized.
Have to check the status of Davonte Parker who left in the 1H with a concussion. That was a big factor in the lack of RZ success.

Speaking of uninspiring offenses, Pitt needs a mention. Arizona has been a sieve lately, only gave up a TD. Pitt had a punt return TD also.

The Seattle offense could right itself this week vs Carolina.

Want a sleeper D for Draftkings lineups next week? It continues to be whoever is playing TB (lions). Way too many TO’s by Winston. Mike Evans is probably out for the season also.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#13
Have to check the status of Davonte Parker who left in the 1H with a concussion. That was a big factor in the lack of RZ success.

Speaking of uninspiring offenses, Pitt needs a mention. Arizona has been a sieve lately, only gave up a TD. Pitt had a punt return TD also.

The Seattle offense could right itself this week vs Carolina.

Want a sleeper D for Draftkings lineups next week? It continues to be whoever is playing TB (lions). Way too many TO’s by Winston. Mike Evans is probably out for the season also.
Do you want to go up against an offense that put up over 540 yards yesterday? Not too many d-lines can hang against TB. I don't expect Detroit to able to.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#15
Do you want to go up against an offense that put up over 540 yards yesterday? Not too many d-lines can hang against TB. I don't expect Detroit to able to.
For the price yeah. Three of the top three scoring D’s yesterday were by bottom 5 priced D’s - Denver, Indy, Atlanta.
 
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