NFL Week 14

V

Valuist

EOG Master
A few things from week 13:

Chicago pass defense is horrific; 6 straight games allowing the opposing QB passer rating over 100. In the first 6 games, only one had a rating higher than 80. They gave up 34 points to a Detroit team playing without its top WR and RB.

Jacksonville D was on the field for 85 plays on Sunday. Good luck tackling Derrick Henry next week

Browns/Titans was two totally different halves. Browns won the first half 38-7; Titans won the second half 28-3.

In the last three weeks, oponents have gotten into the Miami red zone 8 times. Only 1 TD.

Cincy defense has now allowed under 21 points in 4 of their last 5 games.

Saints' defense has allowed 16, 3, 9, 13, and 3 points in their last 5 games.

Philly offense has score exactly 16 or 17 points in each of their last 4 games.

Tennessee defense has allowed 125 points in their last 4 games.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Some scheduling notes:

Washington and New Orleans playing in their 3rd consecutive road games.
KC playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks
Denver in their 4th road game in 6 weeks
New England playing for the 2nd time in 4 days in LA.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
SNF is Stillers at Bills

I see Stillers opened -2.5 and is now -1.5

Gimme all I can get of Bills on the ML
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
winkyduck said:
SNF is Stillers at Bills

I see Stillers opened -2.5 and is now -1.5

Gimme all I can get of Bills on the ML
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Bad matchup for Bills though. They struggle to stop that type of move the chains offense. Steelers will get beat at some point but don't know if this is the team to do it.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
WildBill said:
Bad matchup for Bills though. They struggle to stop that type of move the chains offense. Steelers will get beat at some point but don't know if this is the team to do it.
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OK - so if we give them the win over WTF on Monday and the Bills they are now 13-0. After that:

Dec 21 @ Cincy: W. MAYBE if Burrow was playing we could debate this one. Not now
Dec. 27 HOST Indy: I could see Indy controlling the clock and making this on close. But they also have Phil Rivers so Stillers should win
Jan. 3 @ Cleve: IF the Browns need this one for seeding they will play everyone and could knock off the Stillers. If Stillers are 15-0 and have the #1 seed locked up I think they still play all because if they don't they will be off for 3 weeks and that is not good. IF this gam means nothing to the Browns, Baker and most others won't be playing to rest up for next week's playoff game

I think Bills get them but if they don't it won't shock me at all
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
KC chiefs have lost 4 straight ATS .. next up : chiefs are -7.5 -113 @ Miami
 
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V

Valuist

EOG Master
MrTop said:
KC chiefs have lost 4 straight ATS .. next up : chiefs are -7.5 -113 @ Miami
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They didn't play well against Carolina and in Vegas. But they got backdoored to miss a cover by a half point, or point, in Tampa. I didn't watch last night's game but it looks like a deceptive final score. KC had a pretty big yardage edge, but was 0 for 4 in the red zone while Denver was 2 for 2. 30-16 was probably a more representative final score.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Valuist said:
They didn't play well against Carolina and in Vegas. But they got backdoored to miss a cover by a half point, or point, in Tampa. I didn't watch last night's game but it looks like a deceptive final score. KC had a pretty big yardage edge, but was 0 for 4 in the red zone while Denver was 2 for 2. 30-16 was probably a more representative final score.
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They weren't 13 points better.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
I will be fading Pittsburgh next week. I like going against a team in their first game after seeing a big win streak come to an end.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Valuist said:
I gave them 8 points for 2 TDs instead of field goals on their 4 red zone trips. Cannot expect to hold the Chiefs to 0 for 4 in the red zone.
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Well you said you didn't watch the game, I did. Chiefs blew some opportunities for big plays, but didn't dominate the game to the tune of two scores. Questionable coaching at the end took away the Broncos best shot to win.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Waiting to see if this KC-Mia total goes up a little more, but really like the under. KC for whatever reason is a pure under team this year, trying to avoid getting into track meets. Tua and the Dolphins are the one of the least likely teams that's going to get into a track meet.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
WildBill said:
Waiting to see if this KC-Mia total goes up a little more, but really like the under. KC for whatever reason is a pure under team this year, trying to avoid getting into track meets. Tua and the Dolphins are the one of the least likely teams that's going to get into a track meet.
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upset special Miami
 
ZzyzxRoad

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
The weekly think tank at ZzyxzxRoad headquarters has produced the following:
154 Jaguars under 53.5
166 Dolphins +7.5
168 Raiders +3 (-120)
180 Browns +1

Strong leans to Giants and under in the Saints game.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Bungles under 43.5 seems really juicy. They don't have the weapons to exploit the Cowgirl defensive liabilities right now. Andy and Zeke don't scare anyone. Same total we saw for the Dolphins game, I wouldn't be surprised to see a final close to the 26 we got to in that game.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
ZzyzxRoad said:
The weekly think tank at ZzyxzxRoad headquarters has produced the following:
154 Jaguars under 53.5
166 Dolphins +7.5
168 Raiders +3 (-120)
180 Browns +1

Strong leans to Giants and under in the Saints game.
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Thanks for sharing, Z.
 
L

lap18

EOG Dedicated
Valuist said:
A few things from week 13:

Chicago pass defense is horrific; 6 straight games allowing the opposing QB passer rating over 100. In the first 6 games, only one had a rating higher than 80. They gave up 34 points to a Detroit team playing without its top WR and RB.

Jacksonville D was on the field for 85 plays on Sunday. Good luck tackling Derrick Henry next week

Browns/Titans was two totally different halves. Browns won the first half 38-7; Titans won the second half 28-3.

In the last three weeks, oponents have gotten into the Miami red zone 8 times. Only 1 TD.

Cincy defense has now allowed under 21 points in 4 of their last 5 games.

Saints' defense has allowed 16, 3, 9, 13, and 3 points in their last 5 games.

Philly offense has score exactly 16 or 17 points in each of their last 4 games.

Tennessee defense has allowed 125 points in their last 4 games.
Click to expand...

Valuing post some good helpful information!
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
On one podcast I was listening to this week, they claimed one reason the Jets hung together so well was they got away with numerous holding penalties that did not get called. By my logic, if you get away with holding penalties the previous week, you are likely to try the same in the naxt game. Curious to see the prop for penalties called in the Jets/Seattle game.
 
Heim

Heim

EOG Master
Suddenly in the last 3 games, the Colts defense has sprung a leak, and their totals reflect that. Have to look
at a over in Vegas.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Heim said:
Suddenly in the last 3 games, the Colts defense has sprung a leak, and their totals reflect that. Have to look
at a over in Vegas.
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I'm looking at the LV eam total over. Rivers has burned me too much, and he has a foot/toe problem.
 
Heim

Heim

EOG Master
FairWarning said:
I'm looking at the LV eam total over. Rivers has burned me too much, and he has a foot/toe problem.
Click to expand...

FYI in today's Vegas paper:

"Raiders hope to jumpstart ground game ahead of stretch run"



It probably explains recent under money.
 
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