NFL Week 15
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FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
If Brees is back, it won’t. I’m surprised there is a line.
TheGuesser
EOG Dedicated
I'll fly in the face of Billichicks sterling record against Rookie QB's, and take Miami -2.5. Will also fade Hurts.
The Bears-Vikings game looks to be falling in that pesky category where -3 on the favorite is not enough and +3.5 on the underdog is too much.
The Broncos are literally trying to put together a secondary using other teams practice squad players. Bet accordingly.
WildBill
2
Fangio magic! Yeah, its pretty incredible the injuries and shortage of players every week they have dealt with this season. I thought I was screwed with my bet on them last week when I heard about two starters on the OL out.
kane
EOG master
Great spot to fade the Bills, but the Broncos defensive injuries are very concerning, have to do some more thinking on this one
This would be perfect spot to fade them. They are about as overvalued as any team could be right now. Unfortunately the stars just aren't aliened. I personally think the over is the play here. If you look at what Carolina did in the 2nd half and the Broncos are all about taking shots down the field now.
pete mcmeat
EOG Senior Member
pats are horrible, they beat bmore in a monsoon and then trounced a charger team who's coach might be retarded.....people actually thought they were 'back'.....rams were easy last week and the only thing i can think of that's keeping this line at 2.5 and not 6.5 is the extra rest from playing on Thursday....shouldn't matter,
I hope this is the way most are thinking. Love the Pats in this spot. Already hit the moneyline. I doubt we ever see 3 but I'll cross my fingers.
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pete mcmeat
EOG Senior Member
what spot......out of the playoffs, nothing to play for, shitty qb, coming of a blowout, facing a good team who wants payback for 12yrs of agony, on the road, getting under a fg...
that spot......best you pay rail 9 dollars and avoid playing on your own
This is the kind of talk that gets bookies salivating.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Staring at a 16-9 game, the only TD being a Cam Pick 6.
pete mcmeat
EOG Senior Member
kind of......they played rams and chargers bk2bk
you see a let down after the all out loss to kc? i know it's the pat's and division game, but the line imo points to a miami fade in this spot.
any thoughts?
kane
EOG master
Don't see any letdown for Miami, I think getting 8 points with Hoodie in a game totaled 41.5 is a nice teaser leg, Hoodie has amazing numbers going against rookie QB's, a lot of injuries for Miami, especially on offense, feels like a 21-17 type of game
These are the stats for rookie QB's facing Hoodie for the first time since 2013
0-11 SU
7 TD's 17 INTS
51% completions
162 passing yards per game
kane
EOG master
I'm on one of these B, I'll send you my stuff tomorrow, surprised you're not on the KC/NO Under, seems like your type of play
railbird
EOG Master
brees is toast. past his prime. saints have 3 shitty january qbs right now
railbird
EOG Master
Tua has a high football iq, quick release. the line is a joke. should be -6
railbird
EOG Master
bad time of year to be playing wongs. on a side note the term wongs came from fezzik in 2005, people- entire betting public have been teaseing games below 3 and over 7 since 1980 when cris andrews invented teasers. its a joke that wong is credited for inventing these because he went on john kelly stardust contest and blabbed about them. 90pct of teaser bettors were doing this anyway
kane
EOG master
No opinion on the game, but if I liked the Browns, this would make me like them even more
kane
EOG master
The betting public doesn't know what the fuck a Wong teaser even is, that's why the public gets beat playing teasers, Wongs are the only way to tease the NFL, I've been killing Wong's all year, and If I can get a divisional dog over a TD with a total in the low 40's, I'll take my chances
railbird
EOG Master
correct, every word of it.
kane
EOG master
I know how much you hate blacks, but the reason for Miami's success this year is Bryan Flores, you can credit anyone else you want, just shows you for the racist you are. Sure Boyer has done a good job, but make no mistake, Flores has his fingerprints all over the defensive game plan. It's only a matter of time before people across the league realize how great a coach he is
I would argue "Wongs" are slightly more dangerous this season because of the increase in NFL scoring -- from 45.6 points per game last season to 49.4 points per game this season -- and of course, the one-off crazy pandemic nature of 2020.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
From NBC Boston:
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has enjoyed tremendous success versus rookie quarterbacks in his 20-year career leading New England.
He's 21-5 against these QBs. Here's the list of rookie quarterbacks who've beaten a Belichick-led Patriots defense:
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: Week 7 in 2004 Mark Sanchez, Jets: Week 2 in 2009 Colt McCoy, Browns: Week 9 in 2010 Russell Wilson, Seahawks: Week 6 in 2012 Geno Smith, Jets: Week 7 in 2013
Thanks for sharing, FW.
Just when you think Anthony Lynn can't do anything new that is stupid, he does it again.
4th and 3 with 5:30 remaining, he elects to kick a 47 yard field goal. The Raiders D has been awful all night. If you miss the first down, the Raiders still have to drive 70 yards. A 47 yard FG is not a gimme. Not by any stretch. Why put the game in the hands of a historically bad special teams? Dumb, dumb and dumber.
4th and 3 with 5:30 remaining, he elects to kick a 47 yard field goal. The Raiders D has been awful all night. If you miss the first down, the Raiders still have to drive 70 yards. A 47 yard FG is not a gimme. Not by any stretch. Why put the game in the hands of a historically bad special teams? Dumb, dumb and dumber.