Now I sit with Indy ov32...What should I do???

O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
For the first time ever I bet the NFL Grand Salami. Ov585. There was a 588, so I saved 3 points. It seems like it would not matter at that number. So if my calculator works, I am at 553 already. There are a ton of options. I could take un an adj line +money. I could take un adj line +money and shoot middle. I could take un for game and shoot 20 point middle. I could sit and hope over 32. Doubt I will bet this again because it is a grind tracking scores and adding up. I'll put it on the adding machine tape. I think it is 553. What would you do?


Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
only play an overlay (like you did on the Salammi wager the 3 points).

Dont hedge out with a non overlay play, that is just plain making a bad wager.

if you think any of the adjusted lines are slight overlays then play it, if not hold what you have. Good luck!
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Well, there is interactive also. But let it ride and sit tight are not FROGlike. So I found the value, I could take un42 1/2 +2.23 or un44 1/2 +2.20. Have to like getting 43 and 44 for 3 cents. So here is the breakdown.

Original ov585 4 units. A bit more plus my last free play approx 1 unit also.
un 44 1/2 1 unit +2.20 and 1 unit +2.00 for 2 units +2.10 overall.

Game goes un32, lose fp and part of juice.
Lands 32 +4 units.
Ov 32, un 44 1/2 +8 units. Plus fp
Ov 44 1/2 +2 units. Plus fp

Most likely scenario, win 3 units if it goes over 44 1/2.
Most likely kick myself, if it lands 45-51.
Most likely with my luck under 32. Worst result.

To be honest, this scenario was what I was hoping for when I bet this salami. High total on MNF indoors gave me lot of hedge if early games kept higher scoring trends. If stuck with 42 1/2 only, would have worked it different. Tried to work it into a hybrid middle/scalp free shot. Probably score 45 first half.


Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5
 
wantitall4moi

wantitall4moi

2
Total will go no where but UP IMO, so I would wait. Especially if these teams throw some clunker first half numbers up.

In case people haven't noticed these two teams aren not exactly the offensive juggernauts they used to be. Especially Indy.

Have to take some postion on the under, but I would wait for a better number. I would bet something small on the game total, then sit or take another double shot on a second half total. 32 is low enough to think that you have a very solid (75%) shot to win without having to take any other positions. So buying too full back before the game will definately weaken your position. If you get a "perfect" half (14-7 score) then you should also get a decent second half number to work wiht, and definately a better hold ratio as the money comes in.
 
O

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
Indy has had a bunch of low or no scoring first halves. They have a much improved defense, but seemed to be a bit off offensively. Rams, well, they could give up 450-500 totals yards tonight. They are defenseless as a one legged man in an ass kicking contest. They might score, but not many have on Indy this season. And they have gotten leads and sat. Dungy ball is now officially in Indy. Peyton still makes the best commercials. I have been an over guy, like a square, in the NFL. But this total is pretty high. It could get higher, but I am not interested. The adjusted lines do not move as easy. My FROGs are all in place. 27-17 would be a score I could live with. I popped Indy no score first 7:30 +1.45, un1h, in Bal. I think it was 3-0 at the half. Even when facing gigantic dog 49ers, they pretty much did not score unless they had to. If Tony gets a big lead, and the Rams cannot score, that clock won't stop when they have the ball. Last year this spot easy over. This season, I have my doubts.


Best Wishes... OF :+waving-5
 
J

JJGOLD

1
Indy playing a different game now and it is called ball control as they know that is the best way to win a superbowl.
 
Jimmy Hoffa

Jimmy Hoffa

1
OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Indy has had a bunch of low or no scoring first halves. They have a much improved defense, but seemed to be a bit off offensively. Rams, well, they could give up 450-500 totals yards tonight. They are defenseless as a one legged man in an ass kicking contest. They might score, but not many have on Indy this season. And they have gotten leads and sat. Dungy ball is now officially in Indy. Peyton still makes the best commercials. I have been an over guy, like a square, in the NFL. But this total is pretty high. It could get higher, but I am not interested. The adjusted lines do not move as easy. My FROGs are all in place. 27-17 would be a score I could live with. I popped Indy no score first 7:30 +1.45, un1h, in Bal. I think it was 3-0 at the half. Even when facing gigantic dog 49ers, they pretty much did not score unless they had to. If Tony gets a big lead, and the Rams cannot score, that clock won't stop when they have the ball. Last year this spot easy over. This season, I have my doubts.


Best Wishes... OF :+waving-5
Click to expand...
...A scenario just made for live in-game betting or as I call it, "The hedge, scalp and bailout as-you-go plan".
 
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