Perogy NFL

#1
Going to start posting picks for this season, been doing well so far. My strategy for this season is to only pick my favorite game or two per week and bet 1 unit, maybe 2 if i really like a game.

My goal for the season is to make at least 10 units by the end of playoffs.

Two games for this weekend:

Buffalo at Baltimore
Buffalo +13.5 -105 1 Unit

Sure Buffalo is 0-5 this season but looking at their previous games they have come close to some pretty solid teams. 13.5 is a huge spread and Baltimore will likely win the game but i find it VERY unlikely they win by over 13.5 points.

New England at San Diego
San Diego -2.5 -110 1 Unit

Well there sure seems to be some people who disagree with me on this one... ALOT of people. San Diego is not looking too great this year but they are a great home team and I think they are being grossly underestimated for this game. With the public hugely on New England it makes me want to take San Diego that much more. New England is really beginning to look like the sucker bet of the week.
 
#2
Re: Perogy NFL

Buffalo at Baltimore
Buffalo +13.5 -105 1 Unit WIN

Good to see buffalo put up a good fight in this one as predicted.

New England at San Diego
San Diego -2.5 -110 1 Unit LOSS

Well SD rallied a pretty good comeback at the end of the game to make me not feel quite so bad about this one. I guess sometimes the public is right after all. :doh1

Total: -0.05 Units
 
#4
Re: Perogy NFL

Jacksonville at Dallas
Jacksonville +6.5 -110 1 Unit WIN

The Cowboys continue to struggle as Romo watches from the sidelines...

Total: +0.86 Units
 
#6
Re: Perogy NFL

New York Jets at Detroit
New York Jets -4.0 -110 1 Unit

Taking this one early as I predict the line will shift throughout the week. I find 4 points to be an awfully small margin for the New York Jets to win this game by. They certainly had a bad game last week, and an upset is possible, but for the most part I can see them bouncing back this week for a 10+ point victory.
 
#7
Re: Perogy NFL

Another one I want to get in early.

Chicago at Buffalo
Chicago -3.0 +100 1 Unit

I'm really trying to figure out where I'm going wrong with getting sucked into this bet but I just can't seem to see it. Buffalo hasn't won a game all year, played 5 quarters last week while Chicago had a bye week. This game is also being played in Toronto so it's not REALLY a home game for Buffalo. -3.0 +100??? I'd probably still make this bet if it was -7.0. Sucker bet??? I guess we'll find out.
 
#8
Re: Perogy NFL

A couple of close ones this weekend. Lost the Jets bet by one point and pushed the Chicago game. Better luck next week hopefully.

New York Jets at Detroit
New York Jets -4.0 -110 1 Unit LOSS

Chicago at Buffalo
Chicago -3.0 +100 1 Unit VOID

Total: -0.14 Units

Record: 2-2
 
#9
Re: Perogy NFL

Carolina at Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay -6.5 -115 1 Unit

Really like Tampa Bay here. Find they are kind of an underestimated team and think the spread should probably be a bit higher than 6.5 as Carolina has lost by some pretty big margins this year.
 
#13
Re: Perogy NFL

Chicago at Miami
Chicago +1.5 -110 1 Unit

Really like Chicago here simply because Miami is playing Thigpen, their 3rd string QB, and are generally banged up pretty bad. Nobody really knows how well Thigpen is going to perform for the Dolphins yet, but my money is on Chicago.
 
#15
Re: Perogy NFL

Denver at San Diego
Denver +10 -110 1 Unit

San Diego off the bye week and at home I suppose is what makes this spread so large. Both teams want this game and have the talent to take it, but either way i see it being close, which means I'm on Denver. Also wouldn't be suprised to see this game go over 50.5. Not going to bet it though since I'm terrible at over/unders

Detroit at Dallas
Detroit +6.5 -110 1 Unit

Seeing the public hastily jump on Dallas just because they won a game last week really makes me laugh. Detroit has a shit record but they've proved they are able to keep it close all year, wouldn't be surprised to see them win it outright.

Other notable games that I was close to betting but didn't:

GB at Minnesota - GB
Everything points to GB winning this game and the Vikings seem like they are falling apart this season, but something is really scaring me off of this bet. Not really sure what it is but I just couldn't do it.

Tampa Bay at SF
Another game that looks great on paper for Tampa Bay to win, but SF is just so inconsistent. It really comes down to whether SF is going to show up with their heads in the game or not and I can't predict that...
 
#16
Re: Perogy NFL

Well it ends up looking like I should have bet the games I didn't 2938u4ji23. Detroit completely blew that game, knew it was over after Dallas got that 96 yard touchdown run.

Did a bit of analysis on the game tonight and NYG is really looking like the sharp side to be on so:

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants +3.5 -105 1 Unit
 
#17
Re: Perogy NFL

Terrible, terrible, terrible weekend for me. Don't think I made bad bets, was more just bad luck. Looking to make it back this week.

Denver at San Diego
Denver +10 -110 1 Unit LOSS

Detroit at Dallas
Detroit +6.5 -110 1 Unit LOSS

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants +3.5 -105 1 Unit LOSS

Total: -1.35 Units

Record 4-5
 
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