Predict the date: "Toilet Paper is Readily Available"

#1
I'm down to 4 rolls and don't want to mess up the septic system with paper towels of which I have a dozen rolls (that was all that was available last Saturday). I've been to Target Walmart and Food Lion the last two days and they didn't have one single roll. Not much of an answer from the closest employees. Starting to seem scary.
 

waco

EOG Dedicated
#2
I bought the BIDET at amazon. it feels so good to have warm water shooting up you pooper. YOU ONLY NEED 1 SHEET OF TOILET PAPER
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
#3
May have to go the Walgreens/CVS pharmacies or take the mom and pop route. Hoarding has died down considerably, and worth it if you pay a little more.
 

Sol Diablo

House of Heat
#5
Just scored a 12 pack of Charmin MEGA rolls today. First time Ive seen them in a grocery store in weeks.

Was a right place at the right time thing. Happened to be walking down that aisle when they were bringing over a cart to put on the shelves.

Most stores stock at night when they are closed. Your best shot is to get up early and head in as soon as they open. Or in the case of AZ, after the first hour when it's "Seniors only".
 
#13
Don't know when the date will be, but I'm thinking fairly soon it will be readily available everywhere.

Saw an article a week or so ago where Costco was having to put up a sign that they don't buy back, e.g., toilet paper.

A lot of these panic preppers are going to find out that a lifetime supply of toilet paper is not much use if the world doesn't end, and even less use if it does.

So we'll see all kinds of folks trying to offload toilet paper and/or there no longer being any even normal current purchase demand for it at stores, followed by the stores having to discount it to move it off their shelves.
 
#14
There were 2 8-packs rolls left when I went today. There were cases on Tuesday, so I imagine the shelves will be stocked full of Toilet Paper a week from today, Saturday, April 4. The supply and supply chains haven't really been disrupted, just people's perceptions of it and a whacky Law of Supply and Demand exhibit of Americans. I shop at Smiths, a Kroger company and I wouldn't be freaking out about Toilet Paper anymore although my buddy said he couldn't find any so I gave him the 8-pack I bought when THE FEAR overtook my Common Sense. It will be fine. In no time. Lysol is the new drug.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#15
There were 2 8-packs rolls left when I went today. There were cases on Tuesday, so I imagine the shelves will be stocked full of Toilet Paper a week from today, Saturday, April 4. The supply and supply chains haven't really been disrupted, just people's perceptions of it and a whacky Law of Supply and Demand exhibit of Americans. I shop at Smiths, a Kroger company and I wouldn't be freaking out about Toilet Paper anymore although my buddy said he couldn't find any so I gave him the 8-pack I bought when THE FEAR overtook my Common Sense. It will be fine. In no time. Lysol is the new drug.
The shelves won’t be full. Every store is being allocated a percentage of their last year’s sales when it comes in. Paper products have been pulled from store ads for the next 6 weeks also.
 
#16
One thing I am seeing while watching the financial markets is that upstream suppliers can get knocked out by COVID-19 outbreaks at their production facilities. That disrupts distribution regardless of downstream demand of course.

Saw that recently with, e.g., domestic and foreign cigarette manufacturers (Altria and Phillip Morris) and gold bullion producers (like Pamp Suisse) in Switzerland. (Yes, people shouldn't smoke anyway, but it's a ready example of production of a product potentially being stopped by a COVID-19 outbreak at the source.)

There thus is some method to the panic prepper madness, as you really don't know what shelves are going to be bare and why from day to day as this situation potentially deepens in severity. For example, if truckers start getting hit on a widespread basis, then that hits the distribution of virtually everything. That's a downside to our just-in-time inventory and delivery system these days.
 
#17
. . . and truckers potentially are at a high risk of exposure, as they're in the supply chain getting their trucks loaded by warehouse personnel, eating and fueling up, etc. on the road, and getting their trucks offloaded by more warehouse personnel at the destination.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#19
One thing I am seeing while watching the financial markets is that upstream suppliers can get knocked out by COVID-19 outbreaks at their production facilities. That disrupts distribution regardless of downstream demand of course.

Saw that recently with, e.g., domestic and foreign cigarette manufacturers (Altria and Phillip Morris) and gold bullion producers (like Pamp Suisse) in Switzerland. (Yes, people shouldn't smoke anyway, but it's a ready example of production of a product potentially being stopped by a COVID-19 outbreak at the source.)

There thus is some method to the panic prepper madness, as you really don't know what shelves are going to be bare and why from day to day as this situation potentially deepens in severity. For example, if truckers start getting hit on a widespread basis, then that hits the distribution of virtually everything. That's a downside to our just-in-time inventory and delivery system these days.
JIT wholesalers are getting crushed businesswise in grocery this month. It’s hard to run inventory that thin. Every little glitch is exposed.
 
#28
On COVID-19 supply disruptions generally . . .

The sky is falling each and every day on Zerohedge. If it's not some actual current event, then they'll go to an asteroid could hit us or the Yosemite caldera will erupt one day, maybe soon.

But they are on some stories earlier than the MSM, and they were on this story back when COVID-19 was still the Wu Flu and the PC police hadn't even got the terminology on their radar yet.

Here, they're talking about food production possibly being disrupted at the source. The stuff definitely will hit the fan if food becomes generally unavailable in a major metropolitan area . . .

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/do...ible-worlds-food-supply-are-starting-get-sick
 
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#29
All you want at amazon
I checked it out, Top, as it is an area of need.

Lots of pretty pictures, but as you go through the process: (a) some things overtly are "out of stock" on the very first click to a specific item, (b) on my selected "in stock" item, they then stepped me down to a lesser quantity (they were small packages, and I typically buy this product in larger packaging even in the best of times, so it's not like I was ordering a truck load), and, for the kicker, (c) when I got to the end of the rainbow during checkout, you have to select a delivery date -- and there are no delivery dates available, leaving you stuck at that screen, hoping that maybe it's not BS and delivery dates actually will open up that they'll then put on the screen so that you can finish your order.

Looks like they're basically trying to harvest your personal info for the future, but they don't necessarily have product available.

Maybe by picking different specific items and/or living in a different location, one can actually get TP this way. But, as I suspected, as this experience is hardly uncommon these days, things are not as freely available as they first appeared.
 
#31
The key is to arrive at your local grocery/pharmacy/dollar general/wherever when they first open in the morning.

I did that this morning and every "hard to come by item," including toilet paper and Lysol products, was in full stock.

On COVID-19 supply disruptions generally . . .

The sky is falling each and every day on Zerohedge. If it's not some actual current event, then they'll go to an asteroid could hit us or the Yosemite caldera will erupt one day, maybe soon.

But they are on some stories earlier than the MSM, and they were on this story back when COVID-19 was still the Wu Flu and the PC police hadn't even got the terminology on their radar yet.

Here, they're talking about food production possibly being disrupted at the source. The stuff definitely will hit the fan if food becomes generally unavailable in a major metropolitan area . . .

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/do...ible-worlds-food-supply-are-starting-get-sick
I've been thinking about this a lot recently and I agree it could become a major problem if this nonsense continues much past May 1.

I'm no expert on supply chains by ANY stretch of the imagination, but it would seem to me that the current hardest-hit cities (New York, New Orleans, Seattle, etc.) are at at least a small advantage in that they are also major port cities, meaning at least some of their supplies arrive by ship from places where the virus may not currently be as disruptive.

My worry is for the more out-of-the-way places not close to agricultural centers where there are added lengthy steps required to supply those areas, Of course, generally speaking, those areas have also not been hit as hard by the virus yet.
 
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#32
Yep, and many grocers have senior-only times in that opening hour, for which I typically qualify.

Right now, I'm gauging on a daily basis the need/benefit from getting a needed item now vs. the risk of exposure/(and right now less so) violence (but this is Vegas) and also the risk of there possibly being absolutely zero store stock later as supply disruptions possibly spread through the economy for one reason or another (production, transportation, etc.).

Can be a damned if you do, etc. type scenario, depending on how quickly this resolves and things return more at least toward normalcy.
 
#34
I was down to my last roll, so last night I went to Publix to see if they had any, and sure enough they did, there wasn't a lot, but I was able to grab one of those big packs, I think there's like 12 rolls, so I'm probably good till this thing ends
 
#36
I checked it out, Top, as it is an area of need.

Lots of pretty pictures, but as you go through the process: (a) some things overtly are "out of stock" on the very first click to a specific item, (b) on my selected "in stock" item, they then stepped me down to a lesser quantity (they were small packages, and I typically buy this product in larger packaging even in the best of times, so it's not like I was ordering a truck load), and, for the kicker, (c) when I got to the end of the rainbow during checkout, you have to select a delivery date -- and there are no delivery dates available, leaving you stuck at that screen, hoping that maybe it's not BS and delivery dates actually will open up that they'll then put on the screen so that you can finish your order.

Looks like they're basically trying to harvest your personal info for the future, but they don't necessarily have product available.

Maybe by picking different specific items and/or living in a different location, one can actually get TP this way. But, as I suspected, as this experience is hardly uncommon these days, things are not as freely available as they first appeared.


i just looked... it is on pantry section...it cost a few dollars more to join it in amazon. there is no charmin.. but scott is there. What amazon does is try to get you to join amazon prime & pantry... or prime and you pay for shipping
 
#37
I'm already prime, but I'll try again (and I've been retrying continually trying to get a delivery time to move the order forward) . . . again, the devil's in the details as you go through the order process . . . what you can see and what you actually can get are not necessarily the same.
 
#38
I'm already prime, but I'll try again (and I've been retrying continually trying to get a delivery time to move the order forward) . . . again, the devil's in the details as you go through the order process . . . what you can see and what you actually can get are not necessarily the same.


i got prime too.. but now you have to go to panrty also .. pantry is inside the amazon system
 
#39
It's not giving me that option. It's forcing me down some Amazon Fresh track that puts me in that same BS loop where I can't move forward without selecting a delivery time; and only gives click-boxes for unavailable delivery times.

Maybe you're better at navigating their site -- which is easily possible -- but, if you haven't already, try actually ordering a small quantity and see how that goes. It's showing it as available, all the way through -- until it slaps a max 3 package limit on the order and then puts me in that delivery-time loop where you can't finish placing the order.
 
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