Problem Capping These Games....

[Heim]

Talking heads rattling off stats like all conferences are on equal playing fields.

Example, how much do I have to hear about South Dakota State and their 3 point prowess!?

Sleeper!? They're slower than molasses and shooting against a very weak Summit Conference.

Conclusion, these puffy small conference records, and stats certainly discount the openers.

Moral of the story, look at fav first versus these small conference movie stars IMO.

 

[ouch]

Talking heads rattling off stats like all conferences are on equal playing fields.

Example, how much do I have to hear about South Dakota State and their 3 point prowess!?

Sleeper!? They're slower than molasses and shooting against a very weak Summit Conference.

Conclusion, these puffy small conference records, and stats certainly discount the openers.

Moral of the story, look at fav first versus these small conference movie stars IMO.

There is much merit to this argument.

Nevertheless, every year a Lehigh comes out and beats a Duke, or a Bucknell beats a Kansas, etc.

Why? Because the big boy team is only marginally motivated thinking that they can auto-pilot a victory.

Sure....if Providence and South Dakota State both come out breathing fire, the Friars are going to win.

But consider the following......it's a 12:40 pm start in Buffalo in an arena that will seem like people have arrived at that hour for a tax seminar.....Providence looks like they are half asleep in most first halves anyway even in Big East games........and after fighting the Big East wars for weeks on end, now they have to play.....who?

It's a given that the Jacks will be motivated out the ass. Providence......we'll see.

The lack of motivation and a team that shoots the 3-ball very well can spell upset. The dog gets up 8-10 points, and who knows what happens from there.

Bottom line......these kind of games are impossible to handicap.

 

[ouch]

Billy Packer made a good point this morning in talking about the NIT.

He compared it to some of the lesser bowl games saying that no matter what the power ratings and statistics tell you, certain teams have absolutely no motivation to be there.

If one team shows up like they just don't care, all the expert handicapping goes right down the drain.

Example: Princeton at VCU on Tuesday night. How does Princeton get up for that game after losing the Ivy League championship game on Sunday to Yale. They were the class of the league all season long, and now they are going to Richmond, VA to play a "who cares" kind of game.

Meanwhile, VCU loses to their cross-town rivals (Richmond) who go on to win the championship and get the automatic NCAA bid. Bad enough to lose, and then have to hear about it locally.

How motivated can either of those teams be?

 

[John Kelly]

If an NCAA tournament game is tied with five minutes left in regulation, then the game is a pick 'em the rest of the way, regardless of the two teams playing.

The favorite gets tight, the crowd roots for the underdog and if separation did not take place over the first 88% of the game, don't look for it to occur over the final 12% of the game.

And, of course, the 3-point line evens the playing field for programs that cannot score in the low post.

 

[John Kelly]

Comparing NIT games to lesser college football bowl games is a beautiful analogy.

Billy Packer still making good points at age 82.

Thanks for sharing, OUCH.

 

[Heim]

Some very good observations by 'Ouch'...but personally, the lower tournaments are easier to handicap.

And the moves are usually sharper.

 

[winkyduck]

Some very good observations by 'Ouch'...but personally, the lower tournaments are easier to handicap.

And the moves are usually sharper.

See The Big West for all of the proof one needs.

A week before it started I posted the same thing Matt Youmans did once the pairings were finalized: Fullerton being the 5th/6th choice at around +700 was a joke seeing who was - and more importantly WAS NOT - on their side of the bracket. I emailed JK a week before Youmans saying that same thing. If Fullerton is in the side of the bracket with Irvine, Santa Barbara and Long Beach they never win it. Just bad bookmaking but for a conference almost no one follows or cares about so making a bad line wasn't as costly as it for ACC/Big12/Pac-12/etc.

 

[ouch]

See The Big West for all of the proof one needs.

A week before it started I posted the same thing Matt Youmans did once the pairings were finalized: Fullerton being the 5th/6th choice at around +700 was a joke seeing who was - and more importantly WAS NOT - on their side of the bracket. I emailed JK a week before Youmans saying that same thing. If Fullerton is in the side of the bracket with Irvine, Santa Barbara and Long Beach they never win it. Just bad bookmaking but for a conference almost no one follows or cares about so making a bad line wasn't as costly as it for ACC/Big12/Pac-12/etc.

I wasn't talking about the conference tournaments. Of course, there is enormous motivation that goes with them.

I was talking about the NIT............especially if a team that expected an NCAA berth doesn't get it. Or if a mediocre Power 5 conference team is playing a low-level Division 1 team.

 

[Heim]

Comparing NIT games to lesser college football bowl games is a beautiful analogy.

Billy Packer still making good points at age 82.

Thanks for sharing, OUCH.

Packer is by far the best. Gottlieb is good too. These ex players they
use like Eldridge Recasner (ESPN) last night, brutal.

David Letterman look-a-like Pete Gillen (CBS), also brutal.

Clark Kellogg bugs me too. Talks a lot, says little.

 

[Heim]

Shortest number for a #4 PROV v #13 SDST in history.

Hard to believe Big East Champ (reg season) only 2 v. Summit Conf.

 

[homie1975]

Shortest number for a #4 PROV v #13 SDST in history.

Hard to believe Big East Champ (reg season) only 2 v. Summit Conf.

that was puzzling me also. is PROV a bit overrated or is South Dakota ST underrated or is it about an equal amount of both?

 

[Heim]

that was puzzling me also. is PROV a bit overrated or is South Dakota ST underrated or is it about an equal amount of both?

Market is in love with 3 point power. SDST has that. And they're the only Summit Conference team to go undefeated
( conference) in conference history. A lot of hype built into the number.

 

[Valuist]

Market is in love with 3 point power. SDST has that. And they're the only Summit Conference team to go undefeated
( conference) in conference history. A lot of hype built into the number.

I want to know what South Dakota St would've shot had they played in the Big East and not the Summit. Providence around 55th or so in defending the 3, and against good competition. Providence coming off a load of OT games that had artificially jolted their points for and against. Under is the only way to play the total, IMO.

 

[O'Royken]

People think that only Major conference teams suffer from lack of motivation.

Wonder about Long Beach and Iona today.

 

[John Kelly]

Packer is by far the best. Gottlieb is good too. These ex players they
use like Eldridge Recasner (ESPN) last night, brutal.

David Letterman look-a-like Pete Gillen (CBS), also brutal.

Clark Kellogg bugs me too. Talks a lot, says little.

Clark Kellogg was great when he first burst onto the scene in 1990.

Kellogg coined the term "spurtability" for a team's capacity to score unanswered points.

Unfortunately, he hasn't grown much over 32 years.

#MailingItIn

 

[boston massacre]

Market is in love with 3 point power. SDST has that. And they're the only Summit Conference team to go undefeated
( conference) in conference history. A lot of hype built into the number.

You Like Vermont + ?

They Get About As TV Much Coverage As Cooper Kupp's College Footbal Team, E. Washington

 

[Heim]

You Like Vermont + ?

They Get About As TV Much Coverage As Cooper Kupp's College Footbal Team, E. Washington

I played Vermont +5.5. ARK can't shoot the 3 ball.

South Point opened Vermont +8. Nuts

 

[winkyduck]

Clark Kellogg was great when he first burst onto the scene in 1990.

Kellogg coined the term "spurtability" for a team's capacity to score unanswered points.

Unfortunately, he hasn't grown much over 32 years.

#MailingItIn

Every time Clark Kellogg says: "Score the basketball" I wanna reach thru the screen and strangle him. WHAT THE FUCK ELSE are they supposed to score with.

 

[ComptrBob]

Moral of the story, look at fav first versus these small conference movie stars IMO.

If we just look at the dataset of the "ultimate" favs versus the small conference midgets: namely, over the last 10 years, the #1 and #2 seeds are 38-39-3 ATS versus the #15 and #16 seeds

 

[Heim]

If we just look at the dataset of the "ultimate" favs versus the small conference midgets: namely, over the last 10 years, the #1 and #2 seeds are 38-39-3 ATS versus the #15 and #16 seeds

That's interesting.....

I remember when #13 Murray St was only a 2 point dog v. #4 Vandy in 2010 and beat them by one

That was the beginning of the discounted price on these mid-majors.

Sure, you had Princeton beating UCLA before that but the number reflected the conference inequities. Times have changed

 

[boston massacre]

I played Vermont +5.5. ARK can't shoot the 3 ball.

South Point opened Vermont +8. Nuts

Never Seen Vermont Play.

Asked a Friend Of Mine, Who Works In The America East Conference, For a Scouting Report.

Here's What I Got.


Lot of good players. C Ryan Davis 6'9" 2 time AE player of the year. Inside / out ability. #24 G Ben Shengu from Burlington Vt. Defensive beast reminds me of Dwyane Wade type. Solid 10 players. Move the ball unselfishly. No egos. backup PG #1 Aaron Deloney unreal 6th man.

 

[homie1975]

If we just look at the dataset of the "ultimate" favs versus the small conference midgets: namely, over the last 10 years, the #1 and #2 seeds are 38-39-3 ATS versus the #15 and #16 seeds

not surprising. most of those point spreads are huge and are difficult margins for even the top schools in the country each year to eclipse especially on a "neutral court" and with 15 and 16 seeds and an "us against the world mentality".

I'd be much more surprised of the 1's and 2's had a 55% ATS record or better in these matchups over the years.

 

[Heim]

Never Seen Vermont Play.

Asked a Friend Of Mine, Who Works In The America East Conference, For a Scouting Report.

Here's What I Got.


Lot of good players. C Ryan Davis 6'9" 2 time AE player of the year. Inside / out ability. #24 G Ben Shengu from Burlington Vt. Defensive beast reminds me of Dwyane Wade type. Solid 10 players. Move the ball unselfishly. No egos. backup PG #1 Aaron Deloney unreal 6th man.

Nice. I think they're better than South Dakota St.

But SDST is only getting 2....Vermont 5 in a almost identical 4/13 matchup.

 

[Valuist]

It

I want to know what South Dakota St would've shot had they played in the Big East and not the Summit. Providence around 55th or so in defending the 3, and against good competition. Providence coming off a load of OT games that had artificially jolted their points for and against. Under is the only way to play the total, IMO.

Well, today the answer was about 30% on 7 for 23. A little different ballgame when Western Illinois isn't guarding your 3s. Heim pointed this out as well.

 

[John Kelly]

Good call, VALUIST.

 

[John Kelly]

If we just look at the dataset of the "ultimate" favs versus the small conference midgets: namely, over the last 10 years, the #1 and #2 seeds are 38-39-3 ATS versus the #15 and #16 seeds

And that's why he's ComptrBob.

Handicapping by the numbers.

#EvidencePlease

 

[John Kelly]

Talking heads rattling off stats like all conferences are on equal playing fields.

Example, how much do I have to hear about South Dakota State and their 3 point prowess!?

Sleeper!? They're slower than molasses and shooting against a very weak Summit Conference.

Conclusion, these puffy small conference records, and stats certainly discount the openers.

Moral of the story, look at fav first versus these small conference movie stars IMO.

Add "small conference movie stars" to my EOG glossary.