Prop it up

[Valuist]

Looking to middle Davonte Parker receiving yards. Over 54 1/2 (-135) and Under 62 1/2 (-105). Bookmaker and Heritage.

 

[John Kelly]

All you can ask for is Parker to land between those numbers at some point during the game and then take your chances from there.

Can you say "pulled muscle"?

 

[Valuist]

I initially bet him over 54 1/2 at BM and was planning on riding that, but the 8 yard differential just too big. I know I likely go 1-1 but this is worth a shot.

 

[Valuist]

Will James Robinson and Marvin Jones "go off" with Meyer gone? Hard to imagine the Jags offense going off, but Lawrence had been pushing for Robinson to get more carries. He's been priced for a solid game (81 1/2 yards).

 

[FairWarning]

J Robinson over 18.5 Carrie’s -114
J Robinson 125+ rush yards +450
G Davis 100+ rec yards +850

FanDuel

 

[ouch]

The word is that Houston's defense is racked with injuries and covid.

Lawrence will feel like he is back at Clemson today playing against an ACC team.

I have to think that the Jags will give it maximum effort to stick it up Urban Meyer's ass.

 

[FairWarning]

#Jaguars interim HC Darrell Bevell on RB James Robinson: "James Robinson is our starting running back and he will be played as such."

 

[Valuist]

Very bizarre stat line for Chase Claypool: ZERO catches for 12 yards? How is that possible? Did someone lateral to him after catching a pass?

 

[Valuist]

As bad as Meyer may have been, there's just not much talent down there. I remember after week 1, the consensus was: how could Jax have been laying pts on the road? And today, how could they have been laying more than a FG? The team looked to have quit in earlier games. Even getting rid of the cancer wasn't enough to inspire them.

Seeing Andrews having a giant game so far for Balt. Might be a solid angle; backup QBs might look to target TEs more relative to WRs than regular first string QBs.

 

[John Kelly]

The house locked up a lot of money today when Houston defeated Jacksonville.

I did not get trapped by the situation, but I was leaning toward the Jags without Meyer.

Sometimes the best moves you make are the ones you don't make.

Sounds like a Yogi-ism.

 

[Valuist]

Tennessee D has been impressive recently. Granted, two of the opponents in L4 was the dreaded AFC South duo of Jax and Houston, but Tenn has allowed under 200 yards and under 4 ypp in 3 of the L4 games. Clearly the better team today; outgained Pitt 318-168 and led for 39 minutes but minus 4 in TO did them in. Yet still had a shot to win on their final drive.

 

[Valuist]

I like the Kamara rush prop tonight, over 53 1/2 yards (even money). Before you say "its Tampa Bay, nobody runs on Tampa Bay", I'd say you were living 2 months in the past. Tampa was great vs the run in weeks 1-5, allowing only 46 rush yards/game and 2.9 ypc. But the last 7 games? They haven't even been average vs the run. The perception they are great against the run shows how stale YTD stats are. Last 7 games: they've given up 170 carries for 856 yards. That's 122 yards/game and 5.0 yards per carry. That's not good at all.

 

[Valuist]

I like the Kamara rush prop tonight, over 53 1/2 yards (even money). Before you say "its Tampa Bay, nobody runs on Tampa Bay", I'd say you were living 2 months in the past. Tampa was great vs the run in weeks 1-5, allowing only 46 rush yards/game and 2.9 ypc. But the last 7 games? They haven't even been average vs the run. The perception they are great against the run shows how stale YTD stats are. Last 7 games: they've given up 170 carries for 856 yards. That's 122 yards/game and 5.0 yards per carry. That's not good at all.

That wasn't good. This game might be the ugliest good weather game I've seen in a long time.

 

[John Kelly]

That wasn't good. This game might be the ugliest good weather game I've seen in a long time.

The ugliest "good weather" game.

I like it.

Tampa Bay joins Arizona today as "impossible favorites."

Teams that scored fewer points than they were laying.

 

[John Kelly]

Looking to middle Davonte Parker receiving yards. Over 54 1/2 (-135) and Under 62 1/2 (-105). Bookmaker and Heritage.

DeVante Parker finished the day with 68 receiving yards.