Question for college hoops players

Heisenberg

Heisenberg

2
For last few years when I play an under on college hoops I play it for first half only to avoid the late game foul nonsense. I realize the number for the entire game already accounts for this. I’ve never seen stats to show the differences in totals for first half vs total game to know if this is a failed strategy.
I have taken some unders for second half of a blowout knowing the taxed total didn’t account for the lack of late game foul shenanigans. I’m not a big hoops player at all-definitely recreational

Would be interested in hearing the rest of your thoughts and opinions on this
 
Sleepy

Sleepy

EOG Master
You do yourself a disservice by betting only 1H unders because they post them so late and have reduced limits.

I'd rather bet early and get a good number than wait for 1H totals to be posted, have the game steam 5pts and then be fukked on my under play.

Just as many games have 1st half unders and full game overs as there are 1st half overs and full game unders.
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Heisenberg said:
For last few years when I play an under on college hoops I play it for first half only to avoid the late game foul nonsense. I realize the number for the entire game already accounts for this. I’ve never seen stats to show the differences in totals for first half vs total game to know if this is a failed strategy.
I have taken some unders for second half of a blowout knowing the taxed total didn’t account for the lack of late game foul shenanigans. I’m not a big hoops player at all-definitely recreational

Would be interested in hearing the rest of your thoughts and opinions on this
Click to expand...
Cbb 1st half is usually 47% of the game total. Yes there are plenty of teams who play quite a bit different than that 47% number.

Keep going. There is gold in this niche.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Feels like fewer coaches are playing the foul game in the final two minutes of a game.

Also feels like more coaches understand the 2-for-1 angle at the end of the half and end of the game.

The college game evolves and strategy is improving slowly but surely.

I like it when a shrewd coach understands a six or seven-point loss against a top-ranked team looks better in the eyes of the NCAA selection committee than a double-digit loss.

I think we saw that situation play out the other night in the ND-UNC game.
 
Heisenberg

Heisenberg

2
its seemed to me that for so long players liked to foul at end of games so they could pad their stats with uncontested layups on the offensive end
 
jimmythegreek

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
For me it's all about the matchup. If it's a blowout on paper chances are you won't have to worry about late fouling especially if the coach calls off the dogs and just wants to give the reserves extensive garbage time. Can you hear me now Marv?
 
kane

kane

EOG master
I stopped playing totals several years ago, every now and then If something sticks out I'll fire, but I concentrate on sides. I do play some totals in the tournaments though
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
Sportsrmylife said:
Cbb 1st half is usually 47% of the game total. Yes there are plenty of teams who play quite a bit different than that 47% number.

Keep going. There is gold in this niche.
Click to expand...

Yep.. easy way to figure out the first half totals? The first half total will always be around 10 points less than the 2nd half would be. I.e, on a 140 total.. the first half would always be around 65.

And they very rarely stray from that 2nd half expected total, unlike the deviations in the 2nd half spreads. Maybe adjusted by a point or 2, but that’s it.

Most team averages are very consistently scoring more points in the 2nd by the 10-15 point range. Like you said, there are some who don’t play like that. For tomorrow, northwestern is averaging 67.4 1st half totals, and 67.3 2nd half.

Nw recent games:
Michigan: 78/62
Iowa: 68/68
Illinois: 56/78
MSU: 84/52
Columbia: 66/63
Oklahoma: 62/68 (13 in OT)
Chicago State: 71/63
DePaul: 70/73
Michigan: 66/56
Indiana: 70/64
Georgia Tech: 60/68
Utah: 52/84
Lasalle: 71/96
Fresno State: 70/67
Binghamton: 67/69
Anerican: 69/45
New Orleans: 64/70

First half over is 7-4-2
2nd half under is 9-4 (and 1 of those was in OT)
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
For tomorrow:

Maryland: under is 9-5 1st half, 2nd half is 7-7
Ohio State: Under is 8-5 1h, 2h over is 7-5-1

Marist: 1h over is 5-4, 2h over is 6-3
Iona: 1h over is 9-4, 2h over is 11-3

Emu: 1h under is 7-5, 2h over is 7-5
Buffalo: 1h over is 8-6-1, 2h over is 10-4-1

Ohio: 1h under is 8-3-2, 2h under is 9-4
Toledo: 1h over is 8-7, 2h under is 8-7

NW: 1st half ov is 7-4-2, 2nd half under is 9-4
Rutgers: 1h under is 9-4, 2h over is 8-5

St. joes: 1h over is 7-4, 2h under is 6-5
SLU: 1h under is 10-4, 2h under is 10-3-1

Xavier: 1h over is 10-7-1, 2h under is 12-6
Villanova: 1h under is 10-6 (4 overs in a row), 2h under is 8-7-1
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
BenoitPaire2 said:
For tomorrow:

Maryland: under is 9-5 1st half, 2nd half is 7-7
Ohio State: Under is 8-5 1h, 2h over is 7-5-1

Marist: 1h over is 5-4, 2h over is 6-3
Iona: 1h over is 9-4, 2h over is 11-3

Emu: 1h under is 7-5, 2h over is 7-5
Buffalo: 1h over is 8-6-1, 2h over is 10-4-1

Ohio: 1h under is 8-3-2, 2h under is 9-4
Toledo: 1h over is 8-7, 2h under is 8-7

NW: 1st half ov is 7-4-2, 2nd half under is 9-4
Rutgers: 1h under is 9-4, 2h over is 8-5

St. joes: 1h over is 7-4, 2h under is 6-5
SLU: 1h under is 10-4, 2h under is 10-3-1

Xavier: 1h over is 10-7-1, 2h under is 12-6
Villanova: 1h under is 10-6 (4 overs in a row), 2h under is 8-7-1
Click to expand...
The golden goose to those who dig into the numbers. There is so much money in sports betting.
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
BenoitPaire2 said:
For tomorrow:

Maryland: under is 9-5 1st half, 2nd half is 7-7
Ohio State: Under is 8-5 1h, 2h over is 7-5-1

Marist: 1h over is 5-4, 2h over is 6-3
Iona: 1h over is 9-4, 2h over is 11-3

Emu: 1h under is 7-5, 2h over is 7-5
Buffalo: 1h over is 8-6-1, 2h over is 10-4-1

Ohio: 1h under is 8-3-2, 2h under is 9-4
Toledo: 1h over is 8-7, 2h under is 8-7

NW: 1st half ov is 7-4-2, 2nd half under is 9-4
Rutgers: 1h under is 9-4, 2h over is 8-5

St. joes: 1h over is 7-4, 2h under is 6-5
SLU: 1h under is 10-4, 2h under is 10-3-1

Xavier: 1h over is 10-7-1, 2h under is 12-6
Villanova: 1h under is 10-6 (4 overs in a row), 2h under is 8-7-1
Click to expand...

Iona over 1st half and 2nd half comes in again.
Rutgers 1h under and NW 2h under both come in again.

Also, Ohio under 2h comes in again.

Slu continues to be money on unders in both halves..
 
svbettor

svbettor

EOG Veteran
BenoitPaire2 said:
For tomorrow:

Maryland: under is 9-5 1st half, 2nd half is 7-7
Ohio State: Under is 8-5 1h, 2h over is 7-5-1

Marist: 1h over is 5-4, 2h over is 6-3
Iona: 1h over is 9-4, 2h over is 11-3

Emu: 1h under is 7-5, 2h over is 7-5
Buffalo: 1h over is 8-6-1, 2h over is 10-4-1

Ohio: 1h under is 8-3-2, 2h under is 9-4
Toledo: 1h over is 8-7, 2h under is 8-7

NW: 1st half ov is 7-4-2, 2nd half under is 9-4
Rutgers: 1h under is 9-4, 2h over is 8-5

St. joes: 1h over is 7-4, 2h under is 6-5
SLU: 1h under is 10-4, 2h under is 10-3-1

Xavier: 1h over is 10-7-1, 2h under is 12-6
Villanova: 1h under is 10-6 (4 overs in a row), 2h under is 8-7-1
Click to expand...


Where do you get these stats ?

--SV
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
BenoitPaire2 said:
Iona 2nd half overs are now 12-3.

Scored 96 today with an 80.5 total
Click to expand...
This is an amazing win when you consider how fkn slow Monmouth plays. They were able to speed up a snail packed team.

Also iowa Illinois 2h went how. Both over teams when illinois on road and iowa at home.
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
Sportsrmylife said:
This is an amazing win when you consider how fkn slow Monmouth plays. They were able to speed up a snail packed team.

Also iowa Illinois 2h went how. Both over teams when illinois on road and iowa at home.
Click to expand...

I had Iona -1 and over 154 from opening last night.. shocked that the total went against me with the way Iona is forcing tempo lately. Iona almost pulled off a miracle down 6 with 22 secs left but then Monmouth got a layup with a second left. Push
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
svbettor said:
Can you please share some of the work. Remember ... Sharing is caring LoL

--SVB
Click to expand...
Somethings I have flagged for tonight.
Kentucky 2h under
Ball st/Miami oh 2h under. (Season stats and h2h)
Nova/butler 2h over. (Big season and h2h stats)
C mich/Akron 2h over. (C mich over stats and h2h)
Kent st 2h over
Buff/no Ill 2h over. (Both big 2h over stats)
Northwestern 2h under
 
TobyTyler

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
Sporty you might want to just use conf game stats only if looking at 1st/2nd half numbers this season. Many out of conf games are garbage.
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
What I finding amazing is how some teams grind the half court the first half and then the second half is played like a YMCA pick up game.
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
TobyTyler said:
Sporty you might want to just use conf game stats only if looking at 1st/2nd half numbers this season. Many out of conf games are garbage.
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t say a 5 game sample is more important than a 20 game sample, especially when one game can skew 5 game statistics.

You need to use them both, but there are teams that do play quicker in the first than 2nd and vice versa, and that does go for all the season. If there is a trend where they are over for the year, but unders in a situation over the previous few games, that’s relevant
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
A team to look for on adjustments in totals right now is UConn.

They played very fast in nonconfefenxe, top 30... but they have played much slower in conference games for some reason.

The season average is 72 possessions, which is 43rd in the country and would be the 2nd highest in the country ... but in conference games, there adjusted tempo is only 69 possessions per game, which is 7th in the conference.

The projections for UConn’s games on kenpom (and for betting totals) is still based on the year to date tempo stats, and doesn’t account for the recent adjustments.

Kenpom is projecting 71 possessions for Saturday’s game vs Wichita. Uconn is averaging 69 and Wichita 67 in conference so far.

Not a huge difference in totals, but since the projected on KP is 146, adjusted total would be around 140-141 if recent tempo is considered. So under might be a play? The only problem is both teams defense has been atrocious in conference play. Wichita is 10th in the conference and UConn is 9th.
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
BenoitPaire2 said:
I wouldn’t say a 5 game sample is more important than a 20 game sample, especially when one game can skew 5 game statistics.

You need to use them both, but there are teams that do play quicker in the first than 2nd and vice versa, and that does go for all the season. If there is a trend where they are over for the year, but unders in a situation over the previous few games, that’s relevant
Click to expand...
Season is too short to use 20 game samples, by rhw time any system looks full proof it isnt.
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
Systems? Never.. not in college basketball.

We are talking about teams with specific first half/2nd half differential trends. Some teams go hard in the first and slow down in the 2nd.. but since there are 350 teams, and no time to account for every teams trend, the set 46-47% 1h to 2h total doesn’t account for that.
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
In general, the average bettor doesn’t do well to understand the ins and outs of college basketball. One hour at the sportsbook and you realize that. Most people don’t understand how much college kids have letdowns after big games, or how much they look ahead to ranked teams/rivalry games.

Look at how flat FSU played at home vs Miami the game before duke. And then look how bad they played at Pitt two days after the heartbreaking loss to duke. Perfect example..
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Another team who has changed throughout the season is Kentucky. Slowed way down and defense has become their go to since sec games have started. The Auburn game was the outlier.

Also west Virginia is slow 1h and fast 2h. No idea why.

Virginia is known for their defense but on offense they arent working the clock like in the past. They have some nba dudes who can get their own on offense.
 
B

Biff41

EOG Dedicated
You can copy full game o/u team totals to spreadsheet columns with a simple Column D = column A*.46 . Wont give exact numbers but will give average estimates by periods. Will still look for 1h-2h stats.
 
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