Question for ComptrBob

WildBill

WildBill

2
Is it just my imagination or have fewer games ended on 3 and 7 this NFL season? With all the scoring and teams going for 2 at times they didn't use to have these two key numbers lost some of their relevance?
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
No extra-point attempt after a walk-off touchdown.

Worth .000001% to WildBill's question about the relevance of "3" and "7".
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Looking at this year (256 games + 12 playoff) versus the average of the last ten years (2010-2019):

This year there were 38 games decided by 3 vs a 10-year average of 38.0. Probably an anomaly, I would expect fewer margins of 3 next year. Incidentally, 10 year average from 2006 to 2015 was 38.9.

This year there were 20 games decided by 7 vs an average of 24.9. Probably a trend going forward. 10 year average from 2006 to 2015 was 25.2.

This year the next most frequent margins of victory were 14 pts (19), 10 pts (18), 6 pts (17), 5 pts (16) and 8 pts(15). Definitely a wider distribution (4 pts only occurred 13 times, 1 occurred 11 times, 2 occurred 10 times). Frequency of ties are increased over 5+ years ago due to shortened OT and rule changes.
 
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railbird

railbird

EOG Master
with the new trend of teams going for 2 down 8 late in the game, 7 will be even less relevant going forwayd
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Seems like more missed extra points as well. Funny how kickers seem to be getting longer range each year yet more missed extra points.
 
Heisenberg

Heisenberg

2
Valuist said:
Seems like more missed extra points as well. Funny how kickers seem to be getting longer range each year yet more missed extra points.
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With the high success rate of 2 point conversions I think teams like KC should go for 2 more often earlier and throughout the game

Coaches in all sports make too many decisions based on conventional wisdom rather than the analytically correct move for fear of backlash from media and fans
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Thanks Bob, very useful info. Interesting how many 5 point finishes there were. For ages 5 was considered a dead number, no one cared about it. Moves for books used to be -4.5 and then it didn't take much to get to -6. Still 3 is a key number, maybe that hasn't changed as much as I thought, but definitely makes sense to put less stock in the 7.
 
GameBred

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
MrTop said:
this should be a pinned thread.
Click to expand...

Why don't you ever say this about any of my LBJ Threads?

Here is Pinning Nominee:

LBJ & I... AMA

Heisenberg said:
With the high success rate of 2 point conversions I think teams like KC should go for 2 more often earlier and throughout the game
Click to expand...

Perhaps but not necessarily.

I don't want to run all my best stuff and have it on tape for my opponents. I don't want something like the, "Philly Special," on tape when it can win me a big game. So If I intentionally don't run my best stuff all the time, the success rate may suffer.

The definition of, 'Sacrifice," is to give up something in order to get something even greater in return so costing yourself some short-term win probability points can be long-term beneficial. Besides, I'm assuming KC was usually a favorite so being somewhat "conventional," won't harm them as much as say a team that is usually a Handicapped Outsider.

I take your overall point of thinking in probabilities, though. Ideally, you want to maximize your win probability throughout the whole game but practically speaking, it may be best to hold some shit back.

Heisenberg said:
Coaches in all sports make too many decisions based on conventional wisdom rather than the analytically correct move for fear of backlash from media and fans
Click to expand...

This we can agree upon. They would rather run the risk of being conventionally wrong than unconventionally right.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
GameBred said:
Why don't you ever say this about any of my LBJ Threads?

Here is Pinning Nominee:

LBJ & I... AMA



Perhaps but not necessarily.

I don't want to run all my best stuff and have it on tape for my opponents. I don't want something like the, "Philly Special," on tape when it can win me a big game. So If I intentionally don't run my best stuff all the time, the success rate may suffer.

The definition of, 'Sacrifice," is to give up something in order to get something even greater in return so costing yourself some short-term win probability points can be long-term beneficial. Besides, I'm assuming KC was usually a favorite so being somewhat "conventional," won't harm them as much as say a team that is usually a Handicapped Outsider.

I take your overall point of thinking in probabilities, though. Ideally, you want to maximize your win probability throughout the whole game but practically speaking, it may be best to hold some shit back.



This we can agree upon. They would rather run the risk of being conventionally wrong than unconventionally right.
Click to expand...






see you in June...
 
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