Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

WVU

EOG Master
#41
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

The 4 best cappers are still alive. Nothing more really needs to be said.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#42
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

I'm looking forward to tonight's show.

You can listen live at 10:00 Pacific time at www.klav1230am.com.

Or you can hear an archived version of the program at www.eogradio.com.
 

waco

EOG Dedicated
#43
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

I wish a book would put out a line. i love the irish for the max at -110
 
#44
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

It's just like any other matchup with 7 picks, a toss up.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#45
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Lets get a little higher level discussion going on this matchup and perhaps some Game theory for this specific matchup with these exact rules...

Question #1 should either person intentionally pick the Monday night game as a side or total if pinny lean gives them something to go on?? why or why not?

Question #2 should you ever choose an NFL game landing on 3 (no matter what the pinny lean advantage) for a tiebreaker..why or why not??

Related question #2 What sort of game should you use for a tiebreaker (explain why?)
 

WVU

EOG Master
#46
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Lets get a little higher level discussion going on this matchup and perhaps some Game theory for this specific matchup with these exact rules...

Question #1 should either person intentionally pick the Monday night game as a side or total if pinny lean gives them something to go on?? why or why not?

Question #2 should you ever choose an NFL game landing on 3 (no matter what the pinny lean advantage) for a tiebreaker..why or why not??

Related question #2 What sort of game should you use for a tiebreaker (explain why?)
Answer 1. I say yes because it will give you a great opportunity to hedge if you want to should the monday night game be the deciding factor.

Answer 2a. No because a tie is almost as bad as a loss so you are giving up almost a half a point. Unless the pinny line is -122 or so or higher than I say it is the wrong move. (depending on the average line for top 7 plays)

Answer 2b. Mountaineer trivia
 

lap18

EOG Dedicated
#47
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Do you two watch the games and attempt to figure out which team has the most talent or advantage, or is it just which team has the most money pouring in on them? Please see Fishturds thread for last nights game, it really was irrelevant. Just curious. Good luck to both of you this week!
 
#48
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

i just want to thank Tim in advance for calling in-person tonight!!!!!


so excited!!!!!!!!!!!
 

Mammon

EOG Master
#49
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

WVU don't forget to put your teeth in before the show; you sound much clearer with them.:LMAO
 

Mammon

EOG Master
#50
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Odds IT mentions a gambling/probability/stock book during the show: -830
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#51
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Answer 1. I say yes because it will give you a great opportunity to hedge if you want to should the monday night game be the deciding factor.

Answer 2a. No because a tie is almost as bad as a loss so you are giving up almost a half a point. Unless the pinny line is -122 or so or higher than I say it is the wrong move. (depending on the average line for top 7 plays)

Answer 2b. Mountaineer trivia
this is a perfect answer and why WVU has had an edge vs all thus far not even factoring in the pinny lean.
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
#52
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Yup, agree with WVU on #2. Not as much on #1, but could be argued either way.
 
#53
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Can't say I didn't warn you of this before the very first matchup of the tournament. If anything, our strategy is vindicated.
You are correct...now it is down to 5 game CONTEST....not a capping contest....

But the rules are the rules....
 

WVU

EOG Master
#54
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

Tuck's Recruits > VD's Recruits. making money is the goal of gambling. It doesn't matter to me how it is achieved. I am sure others feel different, but my advice is free.
 
#56
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

I will always take my chances with Whitelaw, Bovi, and Dinky....three respected gamblers....and for the 100th time, kudos to Tuck for getting guys like Buskie and Micelli.....
 

WVU

EOG Master
#57
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

i got no problems with those guys at capping, from what I have seen they are pretty good. But winning contests is not always correlated with good capping. Math in the numbers and solid contest strategy would win out in the long run.
 

bomzee

EOG Dedicated
#60
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

My line
WVU: -111
Irish Tim +101
memo to my landlord:I am going to take a flyer on the best prices on the two matching plays close to post time and if i don't go 0 and 2 November's bill will probably be paid Sunday evening.2-0 and we can discuss December.
0-2 and I will give you next weeks pick for free.
 

WVU

EOG Master
#61
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

Re: Round 3: Matchup 1: Pinny Lean vs Pinny Lean (Wvu/IrishTim)

this is a perfect answer and why WVU has had an edge vs all thus far not even factoring in the pinny lean.
Thanks try. This is quite a compliment coming from the king of contests. I can't say I haven't learned a thing or 3 from you over the years. 12io4j2w90
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#62
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

I like a blend of the Pinny lean and one's own handicapping preferences.

Even WVU admitted he's not betting blindly or strictly mechanical with his reliance on the Pinny lean.
 

waco

EOG Dedicated
#63
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

This is why i liked Irish because i knew WVU was going to take the monday game wheather it was a good pk or not. he will back bet to win a few coins this way if it comes down to that game
 

WVU

EOG Master
#64
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

This is why i liked Irish because i knew WVU was going to take the monday game wheather it was a good pk or not. he will back bet to win a few coins this way if it comes down to that game
I have a pretty strong opinion on that game and posted a thread about it a couple days ago. Pinny likes my pick as well, but it wasn't the best of the bunch according to the juice. The fact that Seattle could very well win big and the fact that it was a line that couldn't tie made this a very good contest best bet as well. I thought we might have 4 like picks so the best bet was a big one.

A mix of Pinny, contest strategy, and good ole injury capping has me really liking my best bet. It may very well lose, but I am comfortable with my pick
 

WVU

EOG Master
#65
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

so far 3 of my 7 picks the lines have moved in my favor.

Carolina +3 now +1.5
Tampa Bay -2.5 now -3
Seattle -9.5 now -10

the others haven't changed but I expect Chicago to move my way as well.
 

WVU

EOG Master
#66
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

Tim has had 2 moves in his favor:

Carolina +3 now +1.5
Dallas -3.5 now -4.5

He may get a move on the Philly game
 

WVU

EOG Master
#67
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

setting an early fair line based on the current numbers I make it:

WVU -111
IT -105
 

WVU

EOG Master
#70
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

A sma11 move on T!m's Buffa1o 1!ne now g!ves h!m a sma11 edge:

T!m -109
WVU -107

Good 1uck today T!mmy :cheers
 

WVU

EOG Master
#72
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

1. Redskins +9 (120) now +7.5
2. Panthers +3 (122)
3. Texans +3 (107) now +2.5
4. Bucs -2.5 (123) now -3
5. Vikings/Lions Under 46.5 (113-114)
6. Bears +3.5 (127)
7. Seahawks -9.5 (best bet) now -10


IrishTim

1. Redskins +9 (120) now +7.5
2. Panthers +3 (122)
3. Eagles +3 (117)
4. Chiefs +10.5 (111)
5. Bills +7.5 (129) now +7
6. Cowboys -3.5 (132)
7. Cardinals +3.5 (best bet)


edge back to WVU at k!ckoff:


WVU -116
T!m +100
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
#73
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

Too much action to keep up with. I'm not used to following all the scores like this. :shoot:
 

waco

EOG Dedicated
#74
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

MINN/DET UNDER IS IN BIG TROUBLE. 28 POINTS AND ONLY IN 1ST QUARTER. BIG BIG EDGE IRISH
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
#76
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

I bet Det/Min under before the show (so not a hedge), but wouldn't mind seeing it lose.
 

WVU

EOG Master
#78
Re: Round 3: Matchup 1:(Wvu/IrishTim) : Picks Inside

another score, my under !s shot. KC !n troube for T!m. TB 1ook!ng good for me. edge to me for now

WVU -120
T!m +104
 
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