Saturday Sept 14 - Man City @ Norwich City in the PL

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#1
9:30A on NBC

***(Before I give my thoughts on this game…………earlier on I played: Leicester +0.5 +112 at Man United. Now that United will be missing many big games Leicester +0.5 is around -115 or more. I actually think taking them at around $3 to win outright is a play that hits more than the 25% needed to make this a B/E play. Leicester is better in all facets of the game except in Goal. The biggest mismatch is on the bench with Leicester’s manager LIGHT YEARS BETTER than the Clown that United has)***
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Those of you paying attention to my BB plays the past 2 weeks you notice something. I told JK 2 weeks ago I was gonna play the crap out of this game – and I have lived up to my word). I think there will be goals scored in this game. A FREAKING SHITLOAD OF THEM! Also – for those who hate soccer because it is low-scoring and boring – watch this game because you will be very highly entertained.

The WA line is 4 with Over now the slight fave. When I first played the game OVER 4 was the slight dog. There is a very good reason why money is pouring in on the OVER!

For those who recall Loyola Marymount under Paul Westhead – all they did was RUN, RUN and RUN some more. Defense was not something they desired to do. You score 2? Fine. We’ll come down and we’ll score 3.

Norwich plays the exact same way. They don’t believe in sitting back like most lower table sides do. They start the game running and attacking and play that way the entire game. Norwich is the only PL side to give up double digits in goals this season with 10. Their 4 games have seen 16 goals scored but really it is more like 14 goals in 3 games since their last game was at offensively-challenged West Ham which saw the Hammers win 2-0. City, on the other hand, is the top-scoring team in the PL with 14 in 4 games and 17 overall.

If you ask Norwich what they expect to have happen here, privately they will tell you they expect to get KILLED! Norwich will attack from the Opening whistle and City will feel like a Lion being fed a steak after not eating for 3 days. I promise you the City players will sleep well tonight knowing the chances are excellent they will all pad their scoring totals after this game. City IS RUTHLESS and will start off wanting to show Norwich ASAP not only are the Canaries not gonna win this game but they are gonna get KILLED!

The books also expect at least 4 goals because each of City’s top 3 scorers are at least -160 (Pinny) to score a goal. Let me repeat that – Sergio Aguero (-180), Raheem Sterling (-165) and Gabriel DeJesus (-160) have over a 60% probability of scoring here.

Let’s took at what Pinny has for Team Totals:



Man City: Ov2.5 -220

Norwich: Ov0.5 -135



So right there Pinny is saying at the very least they expect a 3-1 final and Pinny has Ov4.5 +138 meaning they won’t be shocked if we get at least 5+ goals in this game. Pinny is right. To put that in proper perspective, Liverpool is the next highest game total of the week at 3.25 -108. If you like Ov4.5 in this game you can get +276…………or 2x as much as this game.

I may be wrong (and if I am – YIKES) but I think this game will be a Goalpalooza! Below are all of the plays I posted here so far. Most are Pinny lines – some are Ladbrokes (meaning I did not bet it just like it – I will put a “L” next to those I picked the line from there). If I am wrong – FUCK! If I am right – and nothing I have seen so far from either side leads me to believe this game sees Under 3 goals – WOOOOOO HOOOOOOO.

Like most games I play I won’t watch one second of this. Live. The niece has a 9:30A Club Soccer game so I am going to it but will come home and watch this on DVR, Fast-forwarding until a goal is scored. And as you can see below – I don’t expect that to take a long time.

Plays:



Ov4 +102/Ov4.5 +158/Ov5.5 +352: Now that Ov4 is “minus money” the books are saying they expect 4+ goals. I think there is a 0% chance we see less than 4. I think there is about a 75% chance we see at least 5 and about a 50% chance we see 6. We will need Man City to do most of the “heavy lifting” but seeing how they play that won’t be a problem. I am 100% certain (at least) one City player scores at least 2 goals and if one get a Hat Trick it won’t shock me.

Man City to win & BTTS +115: You already saw the TT for both sides. City WILL win this game – I am 100% certain of it and the fact they are -713 on a 3-way line tells you the books expect it, too. Norwich will find a way to get (at least) one goal in this game.

(L) BTTS in 1h +290: We know they expect BTTS in the game. I am 100% certain City scores in 1h. I’ll take a shot that Norwich does, too.

(L) Man City 1st goal in Minutes 1-10 at +320: City loves putting one in the net ASAP and now making you play from behind. And against Norwich that is very doable. And FYI – a City goal in Minutes 1-10 is actually the lowest price of all 10-minute increments in the game so now the books are saying they expect a City goal before the clock hits 10:00 (which is Minute 11 of the match)

OVER 2 goals +150 and 2.5 goals +260 in 1h: Pinny has Ov1.5 -144 so once again they are telling us they expect at least 2 goals in 1h. Might as well take over $1 more hoping there are at least 2 and take $4 more hoping we get 3+. I actually think Ov3.5 +700 has a decent shot of cashing. I did not play it because Pinny has Ov6.5 +691 for the game and if we go Ov3.5 in 1h the chances of this game getting 7+ goals is excellent.
 
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