Situational CBB spot, please tell me what I am missing here

#1
Florida State +8.5

Duke is coming off a giant comeback against the rival in overtime with two very low percentage plays to send the game into overtime and then to win it. Super high emotional spot for these kids.

Florida State is coming off a 99-81 win against a rival in Miami Florida. FSU only has three losses on the year only losing at Indiana by a margin where this spread is set. They have the 3rd-best defensive rating in the ACC and the 2nd-best defense in two-point shooting.

Why is this line this high?

Is this a situation where FSU sneaks in against Duke and is able to rely on their defense to keep this within 8.

I have a hard time believing that Duke is able to use this high to take apart a strong opponent especially after what happened on Saturday.

Counter points are appreciated as I'm not completely solid in this position...yet.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
#2
I rubbed my eyes when I saw this line as well. FSU nearly doubled Miami on the boards last time out, and are likely to hold a similar edge even at Cameron's hostile environment. Jones and Carey are going to have to be on their A games. If Williams and Walker have big games the upset minded Noles could capture their biggest win of the season.

I've got Duke winning by 5 but FSU covers as this is too many points.
 
Last edited:
#3
This kind of thinking can’t win, basic fezz shooting from the hip stuff with zero math behind it. The line is 8 for a reason, but the zomg!!!1!1 letdown police are lining up in droves on fsu.
 
#5
This kind of thinking can’t win, basic fezz shooting from the hip stuff with zero math behind it. The line is 8 for a reason, but the zomg!!!1!1 letdown police are lining up in droves on fsu.
KenPom has this 10

saragin has this

DUKE 7.30 10.61 8.48 4.82 florida state 291 74% 142.89

based on these guys the number looks right.
 
#6
This kind of thinking can’t win, basic fezz shooting from the hip stuff with zero math behind it. The line is 8 for a reason, but the zomg!!!1!1 letdown police are lining up in droves on fsu.
I am going to shyt myself if fezzik gives this reasoning for a play on fsu today on the radio show.

in fact, i'm almost certain you are right.

normally when my thinking lines up with a "pro", the pro's thinking is flawed.
 

kane

EOG master
#8
It’s really more a situational play than a math play.
I'm a situational capper, and the spot screams Noles, but it is Duke, it is Cameron Indoor, and the fact that FSU is as good as they are should keep Duke focused. I was really hoping they would be playing a middle of the pack ACC team, someone like Pitt, or NDU. If I play it, it's either the dog or nothing, right now the public loves FSU which worries me a little, more than likely a pass for me
 
#10
kenpom model is flawed, lines are 4 and 5 pt different than their model daily. "emotional" ? I dont think Miami and nc are considered rivals, that is more espn ans alumni hype than reality for the players. the duke nc rivalry peaked 20 years ago.
 
#11
kenpom model is flawed, lines are 4 and 5 pt different than their model daily. "emotional" ? I dont think Miami and nc are considered rivals, that is more espn ans alumni hype than reality for the players. the duke nc rivalry peaked 20 years ago.
You don't think Duke and Carolina are Rivals? It's one of, if not the best rivalry in college hoops. Go ask the players from the Duke/Caro game the other day if it's a rivalry
 
#12
I had the same immediate reaction. Made me look at all FSU Road scores.

The Seminoles could win this one outright, so that 8½ looked huge.
Even after bet into, still like FSU. Seems 4½-5 a closer opening line.
 
#13
kenpom model is flawed, lines are 4 and 5 pt different than their model daily. "emotional" ? I dont think Miami and nc are considered rivals, that is more espn ans alumni hype than reality for the players. the duke nc rivalry peaked 20 years ago.
I have noticed this quite a bit this cbb season. kenpom vs opening lines have had some big differences.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#17
I'm a situational capper, and the spot screams Noles, but it is Duke, it is Cameron Indoor, and the fact that FSU is as good as they are should keep Duke focused. I was really hoping they would be playing a middle of the pack ACC team, someone like Pitt, or NDU. If I play it, it's either the dog or nothing, right now the public loves FSU which worries me a little, more than likely a pass for me
I may play 2H. This could be a public dog and I hate playing them.
 
#19
if you need more betting advice for this game. this is a "massacre game" with a solid trend that has 14 legs to it which means its super duper strong.

Marco 4%
Duke -8

You will hear a lot of people say Duke is going to be flat tonight off the big win over N. Carolina in Overtime on Saturday. Fact is if they would of lost in OT after storming back to send it to OT then Yes this would of been a flat spot. I feel that win is going to send Duke on an even better run than they are on. N. Carolina shot 52% on Saturday and Duke still found a way to win. In that game on Saturday Duke only hit 4 of 18 from 3 that's just 22% shooting. Duke averages 7 made 3's and 35% for the season so clearly N Carolina had an exceptional Shooting night while Duke did not and yet Duke found a way to win. That is the sign of a great team. As far as being flat for Florida St forget about it as they are tied for 2nd place with Florida St both at 10-2. We also find that Over the last 5 years in College Basketball Playing On Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DUKE) - in a gameinvolving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after scoring 85 points or more are 100-57 ATS. Lastly FLORIDA ST is 0-9 ATS in road games after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons. My numbers have DUKE winning by 13-15 points. TAKE DUKE as my 4% Big Monday Massacre Game.
 
#23
This kind of thinking can’t win, basic fezz shooting from the hip stuff with zero math behind it. The line is 8 for a reason, but the zomg!!!1!1 letdown police are lining up in droves on fsu.
hats off to you for looking into the future and understanding what a square sharp like Fezzik (on sides and totals would see in this game)
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
#26
Every now and then you can spot a situation in college and/or the pros as just what the closing line suggests...a gift. This one landed right on the screws on what I had it capped at.

Great call for those who also played under.
 
#28
Good point Jimmy. Now does NC have this same situation as it was a terrible loss on Saturday and they don't show up tomorrow?
I don't see how Carolina gets off the bus, Wake stinks but it's a game they'll want more than UNC, and even though UNC stinks as well, to Wake it's still UNC. Hope that makes sense, I'm all over Wake
 
#29
I don't see how Carolina gets off the bus, Wake stinks but it's a game they'll want more than UNC, and even though UNC stinks as well, to Wake it's still UNC. Hope that makes sense, I'm all over Wake
I had this feeling as well right after the game.

They had the super bowl locked up and let it slip away twice.

Kenpom shows wake by 2.

this is another great situation that the numbers won't fully account for.
 
#33
I don't see how Carolina gets off the bus, Wake stinks but it's a game they'll want more than UNC, and even though UNC stinks as well, to Wake it's still UNC. Hope that makes sense, I'm all over Wake
Game played out exactly how I thought it would, the Heels never got off the bus, as easy as it gets
 
Top