Statistically speaking...is Mr Poison a good fade?

#1
"I am asked all the time “Who Is Mr. Poison?” Mr. Poison is a gambler who bets offshore and I have a relationship with the book where he places his action. Mr. P came onto my radar when he began fading the #FollowTheMoney5 (@VSiNLive, @MitchMossRadio, @paulyhoward, @VSiNjb) consistently. At the time it was just interesting to follow someone who was betting against such a hot trend in the #FollowTheMoney5. Never did I expect I would find the greatest fade I have ever seen. In the weeks after following Mr. Poison on his first period total bets, we noticed that he seemed to lose whatever he bet! Obviously not 100% but for someone to hit only 25%-30% of their bets, over a sample size of over 150 bets, is pretty incredible. His record has been one thing but the way he loses his games makes it even more fascinating. Some of Mr. Poison’s selections are big favorites that not only don’t cover but they lose in blowouts. It seems so impossible that naturally people feel he can’t be real. However I tweet out his bets before every game so the Twitter world can watch him themselves. It’s an extreme statistical anomaly to perform as poorly as Mr. Poison and that’s what further adds intrigue to this guy. I have to admit, it’s entertaining to watch what he does!

In all sports combined, Mr. P has a win percentage of 41% in 2019…fade would be 59%! Total tickets for 2019 through his most recent bet which was placed on 10/6... over 475! Get your shirt on and get ready to FADE! Mr. Poison frequently bets games every way possible. He will take an NHL team, for example, on the 1st period, puckline, moneyline, regulation line, etc. If he took a team on each of those four lines, I would grade it as 0-4 since those are four separate wagers with four separate potential outcomes which you can follow or fade."

https://thesharpplays.net/mr-poison/
 

O'Royken

EOG Dedicated
#3
Never fade anyone who is anonymous. This could be all made up for all we know. Could be a book insider reversing sharp action to gain follows on twitter.

They could also be working with Paul Howard and Mitch Moss in an effort to advance their careers for favors later.
 
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#4
Never fade anyone who is anonymous. This could be all made up for all we know. Could be a book insider reversing sharp action to gain follows on twitter.

They could also be working with Paul Howard and Mitch Moss in an effort to advance their careers for favors later.
No that isn't the case. This Sharp Plays was posting this Mr. Poison's plays on twitter a long time before when he was getting crushed in hockey. I think at one point he was down $1.2M. Then went on a hot run in the playoffs basically playing on the Bruins. I don't see anyone using this as an angle.
 
#5
Never fade anyone who is anonymous. This could be all made up for all we know. Could be a book insider reversing sharp action to gain follows on twitter.
Interesting remarks, O'Royken. My questions would be the following.

What is the likelihood it is "made up"? Does the author of the site give any evidence that might suggest he is dishonest? Or that he does not have access to such info? Is there any reason to think that such "losers" do not exist? Or that sportsbooks are not aware of them?

Even if he was "reversing sharp action", anyone fading Mr. Poison would still be on the sharp side, no?

They could also be working with Paul Howard and Mitch Moss in an effort to advance their careers for favors later.
After one researched TSP's author, his articles & his postings on his website the past number of years, would the evidence support such a conclusion?

Thanks for your input.
 
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#12
"Mr. P is 21-25 in NFL, 27-23 in NCAAF, 11-3 in NHL!
Current Streak: 1-0 (Fade = 0%) Current Streak is record of consecutive wins or losses only.
Current Run: 2-5 (Fade = 71%) Current Run is best/worst record over recent selections.
Last 10 Tickets: 5-5 (Fade = 50%)
Last 50 Tickets: 28-22 (Fade = 44%)"


https://thesharpplays.net/mr-poison/
 
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