Strike out props at Bovada
- Thread starter Abundy
- Start date
IWishIWasAPro
EOG Master
Variety of props. Good place for that.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Metrics would rather you try for the HR with 2 strikes vs stringing 2-3 hits together for a run. Saturday the Pirates pitcher swung on a 3-0 count with the bases loaded and no out. Pitt ended up not scoring that inning.
kane
EOG master
4-1 +2.85 Units
kane
EOG master
Jammer does make a good point though, you claimed you would hit at a 60% clip, I kept track of your plays but then you abandoned that thread
kane
EOG master
Joey Votto and Anthony Rizzo are two guys who choke up with two strikes, but the vast majority of them take the same approach regardless of the count, they swing the same whether the count is 3-1 or 0-2
I know Kane. I went to Hawaii in the winter and didn’t want to worry about it while I was in there. After a very slow start I came back and finished I believe 24-23. I still think I would have hot my 60 % if I hadn’t gone on vacation. I am going to be more selective with my picks
Blame it on a vacation. That's a good one ... LOL.
I had you at 23-22-2, -2.65u, 51.5%. Average betting line was -116.8, breakeven win%= 53.9%.
Given this sample, there is roughly a 14.4% chance that over the long term you win at 60% or better.
X-Files
2
Given the following sample of 1 unit bets, what was the chance before this MLB season began this MLB bettor would be up in units at the end of this season:
2018: 2264-1946-216, +73.36 units
2017: 2076-1792-191, +39.16 units
2016: 1941-1663-194, +41.48 units
2015: 2043-1700-225, +155.08 units
2014: 1904-1565-216, +185.34 units
https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/103339542/weebles-thursday-picks
KevinStott11
EOG Veteran
I agree with you Abundy. Modern MLB is almost unwatchable without a bet on the game. Nobody chokes up or changes hand position on bat with 2 strikes. You're right, it's like they don't care if they K. Outs are everything for real Baseball players and us gamblers. The way they give up ABs and overswing is pathetic. And the ball itself has to be different this year.
Defensively, the players seem worse also. OFs cover less ground, never communicate, nor listen to each other—there are exceptions of course—and this shifting for every batter—as analytical as it may be—looks weird and makes the game boring. And nobody bunts, knows how to bunt or is on a team where learning to bunt is a priority. I blame computers and phones. Kids used to have the Time to learn these skills and coaches used to teach them. Those skills are being bleached away and the higher Totals overall shows MLB has become all about more Runs. I hate it.
Without betting, a game is hard to watch also. Long gaps between action. Bless that old dude in the pink hat at the Cubs games. Don't know how he does it. Even with betting, MLB seems so boring and hard to watch. It's like a laziness in my mind. And the Regular Season is way too long (March-November now?) and chews up the calendar year. Baseball needs an enema. And these odds for Favorites have become laughingly high. I have never seen such large numbers as I have here in 2019. Parlays aren't even worth it. And weird to have two leagues with different rules (DH). Nobody else in Sports does that. Good luck man. I'll be pulling for you.
Defensively, the players seem worse also. OFs cover less ground, never communicate, nor listen to each other—there are exceptions of course—and this shifting for every batter—as analytical as it may be—looks weird and makes the game boring. And nobody bunts, knows how to bunt or is on a team where learning to bunt is a priority. I blame computers and phones. Kids used to have the Time to learn these skills and coaches used to teach them. Those skills are being bleached away and the higher Totals overall shows MLB has become all about more Runs. I hate it.
Without betting, a game is hard to watch also. Long gaps between action. Bless that old dude in the pink hat at the Cubs games. Don't know how he does it. Even with betting, MLB seems so boring and hard to watch. It's like a laziness in my mind. And the Regular Season is way too long (March-November now?) and chews up the calendar year. Baseball needs an enema. And these odds for Favorites have become laughingly high. I have never seen such large numbers as I have here in 2019. Parlays aren't even worth it. And weird to have two leagues with different rules (DH). Nobody else in Sports does that. Good luck man. I'll be pulling for you.
From this sample, overall win rate is 54.13%, up +494.42u. We can calculate a roughly -113.5 average betting line and 53.16% win rate to produce the profit above. Note that if the bet spread is skewed (i.e. most money is made on large dogs or favs) the result uncertainty is greater. To some degree, we could discount the exceptional first two years due to discovery/survivor bias. Also assume that if the bookmaker gets better this year, so does the capper.
Accepting the record as is, the chance to be ahead by the end of the MLB season is around 99.6%.
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Will stated Kevin. Is this the future of baseball. It will not attract young fans.I think Bucky Showalter was on to something years ago. Why wait 5 hits to get you 3 runs when a walk a single and a dinger can do the same. In today’s game there is way to much time with nothing happening. You use to think with a runner on first. Are they going to hit and run. Now station to station baseball and hope for a dinger. Baltimore last night allowed there 258th homerun of the season.Already tieing a major league record. Oh by the way they still have 35 games to play. They have given up 258 dingers in 127 games. An average of over 2 every game.
X-Files
2
Interesting, Bob. Roughly 85% of his bets are small favs in the range of -101 to -140. The other 15% or so are small dogs of +100 to +140, usually +120 or less. For large favorites he plays them on the RL @ -1 or -1.5, or occasionally -2, etc, & or with team totals over the number. Likewise with large dogs.
On the 2019 season thus far he was down just over 40 units entering Thursday's action. Though about 2 weeks ago he was in the black for 2019 & around the end of May was up over 80 units. So since then down ~ 120 units. Often betting upwards of 20 games a day at a unit each can lead big swings quickly.
At his present record i wonder what the revised odds are for him ending in the black this season or in 2020.
The one size fits all approach is usually wrong. I don't have a problem with one dimensional hitters like Gallo or Khris Davis swinging from their heels with 2 strikes. But I don't want to see 170 pound second baseman not changing their approach at all when down to 2 strikes. The problem is everyone thinks they are Mark McGwire now.
