Super Bets as they get placed...

[WildBill]

SuperBowl I always just make small bets along the way as I get a feel for the game and maybe some value. Invite others to post too.

My first bet:
TB +2.5 -105 for the 1st Half.

Feels to me like the more likely path this game takes is Tampa starts off stronger playing a patient game and perhaps getting a turnover from the Chiefs trying to do too much. Could see this game going like a lot of Chiefs games, where they look a little unfocused on both sides of the ball, but then half time and then crunch time they find their game and pull out a win.

 

[MrTop]

I played under 58 . I think it will go down more until the last couple of days then it will come back up . I will buy a bit back. The first game total was much lower. I will be one of a dozen people on the under nation wide. Ha Ha

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

This should be a strong and informative thread....good luck to all in the next two weeks....

 

[John Kelly]

SuperBowl I always just make small bets along the way as I get a feel for the game and maybe some value. Invite others to post too.

My first bet:
TB +2.5 -105 for the 1st Half.

Feels to me like the more likely path this game takes is Tampa starts off stronger playing a patient game and perhaps getting a turnover from the Chiefs trying to do too much. Could see this game going like a lot of Chiefs games, where they look a little unfocused on both sides of the ball, but then half time and then crunch time they find their game and pull out a win.

Makes sense to me.

Tampa Bay scored on the game's first possession against Green Bay.

Kansas City last week spotted Buffalo a 9-0 lead before going on a 38-6 run.

And let's not forget SB LIV where San Francisco showed the way for more than 50 of the game's 60 minutes before Kansas City woke up just in the nick of time.

 

[John Kelly]

I played under 58 . I think it will go down more until the last couple of days then it will come back up . I will buy a bit back. The first game total was much lower. I will be one of a dozen people on the under nation wide. Ha Ha

Tick, tick, tick...

 

[Patrick McIrish]

KC going to be the big public side......

Suspect the sharper folks will be on Tampa +3- (or better).

FTR I don't think it ever goes to 4 or 2- but a long way to go, we'll see.

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

Makes sense to me.

Tampa Bay scored on the game's first possession against Green Bay.

Kansas City last week spotted Buffalo a 9-0 lead before going on a 38-6 run.

And let's not forget SB LIV where San Francisco showed the way for more than 50 of the game's 60 minutes before Kansas City woke up just in the nick of time.

This could be a Tampa Bay first half bet and then back it up with a KC full game wager....

 

[Fezzik]

Basic Strategy in the SBowl is you SHOULD be able to past post the 1Q and 1H

You would ONLY want TBay if they get the ball

So........ WAIT ...........if KC wins the toss, THEN grab the 1h (or better yet 1Q).

QUICKLY

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

Most books I know close those props right before the coin toss....

 

[FairWarning]

Basic Strategy in the SBowl is you SHOULD be able to past post the 1Q and 1H

You would ONLY want TBay if they get the ball

So........ WAIT ...........if KC wins the toss, THEN grab the 1h (or better yet 1Q).

QUICKLY

Very, my books take the 1Q down 10 min before kickoff.

 

[Fezzik]

Many books make an exception to the SBowl since they are writing so many tickets.

 

[WildBill]

Most books have live 1H betting with horrible vig and adjusted lines so good luck getting value post coin toss.

 

[raycabino]

Basic Strategy in the SBowl is you SHOULD be able to past post the 1Q and 1H

You would ONLY want TBay if they get the ball

So........ WAIT ...........if KC wins the toss, THEN grab the 1h (or better yet 1Q).

QUICKLY

500+ props offered on a Super Bowl and Fezzik's advice is to past post the 1q and 1H. Thanks a lot pal.

 

[MrTop]

ray come back to NJ

 

[WildBill]

Bet #2

Brady un300.5 pass yards +100 at MGM

I think the Chiefs defense has stumbled upon something in terms of limiting the deep ball so I don't see a repeat of Brady's 345 yards in the first game. Chiefs run defense is still vulnerable and Brady is smart enough to take what they are giving up. Along the same lines of the first bet, I see a tight game the whole way and my biggest worry on this one is if TB is down multiple scores and gets some late drives to pump up the yardage. I'll take the coin flip odds on that not happening.

 

[WildBill]

Bet #3

Evans to score first TD +1200 at Foxbet

Really pick your man on this one, crazy how this is priced at the moment. Hill and Kelce around +600, Williams and CEH at around +1100, Bell at +1500...Chiefs are overpriced. Good value taking your pick of TB players so I'll go with the guy Brady seems to like best when taking shots at the end zone. I wouldn't argue with someone taking Godwin at +1350 and I'm thinking of a smaller wager on Brate at +2000.

 

[boston massacre]

500+ props offered on a Super Bowl and Fezzik's advice is to past post the 1q and 1H. Thanks a lot pal.

Fezzik !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Where Did He Come From ?????????????????

 

[Don Eagleston]

FWIW, Brady's first quarter record in Super Bowls is abysmal.

 

[hcskip]

3 days ago I get this one:
2/7/21 6:30pm NFL Football 101 Kansas City Chiefs/Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1st Quarter Over 10 -130*

I expect both teams to hit the ground 1st quarter - expecting worst case a TD and FG for the push.

 

[WildBill]

3 days ago I get this one:
2/7/21 6:30pm NFL Football 101 Kansas City Chiefs/Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1st Quarter Over 10 -130*

I expect both teams to hit the ground 1st quarter - expecting worst case a TD and FG for the push.

Its still available now. Does seem quite low for a game with a 56 total and 28 1st half total.

 

[FairWarning]

Its still available now. Does seem quite low for a game with a 56 total and 28 1st half total.

1Q unders were the play for years. I think that works bettrer with 1st time qb's.

 

[Patrick McIrish]

Only concern is I think the Bucs are going to greatly try and establish the run.

They know they can't win if they don't keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible.

They haven't really done that much this year but Chiefs kicked their fing asses the first meeting, up 24-0 at one point.

Still don't disagree with a juiced Over 10, just here to be rambling thoughts aloud.

I have this as a fairly close to the total first half and things going wide open in the 2H.

 

[FairWarning]

Only concern is I think the Bucs are going to greatly try and establish the run.

They know they can't win if they don't keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible.

They haven't really done that much this year but Chiefs kicked their fing asses the first meeting, up 24-0 at one point.

Still don't disagree with a juiced Over 10, just here to be rambling thoughts aloud.

I have this as a fairly close to the total first half and things going wide open in the 2H.

Brady may have the best group of WR's in the league. I don't think they have to slow it down. If they get up 9-0 like Buffalo did, they will not lose. They need to make KC one-dimentional with the tackles out.

 

[MrTop]

tampa got crushed by the saints 38-3 in november... turned it around winning 7 of 10 ATS

 

[FairWarning]

Looking back at TB’s season, don’t know how they lost to Foles and the Bears.

 

[Patrick McIrish]

They put it a good way on TV yesterday, because of the "Brady brand" Tommy gets away with a lot of average play while being praised like a GOD.

The biggest difference in the game for me is QB, Mahomes is grossly superior. Everywhere else Tampa matches up well.

Mahomes under pressure QBR is higher in the playoffs than Brady's is overall. Man, that's huge.

So if that holds when the Bucs get pressure and the Chiefs got none, he would still outplay Brady. I believe it.

Tampa fan, not so much a Brady fan at this point in this career. The defense has carried the team in the playoffs, not Tommy Terrific.

 

[Patrick McIrish]

Looking back at TB’s season, don’t know how they lost to Foles and the Bears.

I'm more surprised the Chiefs lost to the Raiders.

 

[Patrick McIrish]

Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
·
54m
Bucs and Chiefs enter critical phase of COVID precautions. Any player or coach with a positive test beginning today will be ruled out for the Super Bowl. Same protocols as regular season. Game on without key players if positive.


Yikes!

I got a sawbuck to anyone that can give Mahomes COVID the next week or so.

 

[Crazy Pete]

They put it a good way on TV yesterday, because of the "Brady brand" Tommy gets away with a lot of average play while being praised like a GOD.

The biggest difference in the game for me is QB, Mahomes is grossly superior. Everywhere else Tampa matches up well.

Mahomes under pressure QBR is higher in the playoffs than Brady's is overall. Man, that's huge.

So if that holds when the Bucs get pressure and the Chiefs got none, he would still outplay Brady. I believe it.

Tampa fan, not so much a Brady fan at this point in this career. The defense has carried the team in the playoffs, not Tommy Terrific.

Strongly agree with McIrish here.
IMO, Mahomes currently is the best QB ever.
He’s a little frail, may not set career records, but his complete repertoire, accuracy, scrambling, those dastardly flip passes, intelligence, etc is unsurpassed, by anyone, ever.
It’s amazing to me how poorly they’ve done ATS, and I’ll readily admit I’m not a sports betting AP (I’m an AP in another gambling field), but I’m taking moneyline & giving points.
Brady is better than I thought, but he’s over the hill, has been good but not great in SB’s, and Mahomes will be unrelenting.

 

[John Kelly]

What's your AP game, Pete?

 

[Crazy Pete]

Don’t want to give too much info in public.
But, basically, exploiting various weaknesses at table games & machines at notoriously low stakes.
Since 1987

 

[FairWarning]

I'm more surprised the Chiefs lost to the Raiders.

Anything can happen in division games. I remember the game well.

 

[WildBill]

They put it a good way on TV yesterday, because of the "Brady brand" Tommy gets away with a lot of average play while being praised like a GOD.

The biggest difference in the game for me is QB, Mahomes is grossly superior. Everywhere else Tampa matches up well.

Mahomes under pressure QBR is higher in the playoffs than Brady's is overall. Man, that's huge.

So if that holds when the Bucs get pressure and the Chiefs got none, he would still outplay Brady. I believe it.

Tampa fan, not so much a Brady fan at this point in this career. The defense has carried the team in the playoffs, not Tommy Terrific.

Certainly Mahomes is better, but I give Brady credit this season. I really thought he was physically through and that Tampa was just being stupid signing him. Being a top 5 QB season at age 43, sheesh that's insane with so many good young QBs around. Even more, he's gotten better in the second half of the season, absolutely money since the bad Saints loss. Suppose that has to do with getting more familiar with his team and the coaches. I'm not selling his ability in a game like this short, that's for sure.

 

[WildBill]

Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
·
54m
Bucs and Chiefs enter critical phase of COVID precautions. Any player or coach with a positive test beginning today will be ruled out for the Super Bowl. Same protocols as regular season. Game on without key players if positive.


Yikes!

I got a sawbuck to anyone that can give Mahomes COVID the next week or so.

Unless they already got it those guys are going to lock themselves and their families down, no question about it. Can never take for granted you'll get another chance to play in a Super Bowl, even if you are Mahomes.

 

[FairWarning]

Unless they already got it those guys are going to lock themselves and their families down, no question about it. Can never take for granted you'll get another chance to play in a Super Bowl, even if you are Mahomes.

Never underestimate how dumb these players are at times. Remember when Barrett Robbins was missing the night before the SB? He was partying in Tijuana.

 

[WildBill]

Never underestimate how dumb these players are at times. Remember when Barrett Robbins was missing the night before the SB? He was partying in Tijuana.

Or Eugene Robinson...

Guys back then thought they could get away with stuff, can't do it now days even if you weren't worried about Covid because 200 people will take video of you out and post it on Twitter.

 

[Patrick McIrish]

Unless they already got it those guys are going to lock themselves and their families down, no question about it. Can never take for granted you'll get another chance to play in a Super Bowl, even if you are Mahomes.

I wonder about the Bucs though. Since the players live here are they really going to lock themselves away?

If so I haven't heard about it yet. Not saying it isn't going on but I'd be surprised I hadn't heard about them in a lock down.

You're right though, a lot to lose. I don't think I'd let anyone risk it if I was the head coach but Arians sees himself as a player's coach.

I'm going to try and find out what's going on for sure unless someone else already knows.

 

[Patrick McIrish]

Certainly Mahomes is better, but I give Brady credit this season. I really thought he was physically through and that Tampa was just being stupid signing him. Being a top 5 QB season at age 43, sheesh that's insane with so many good young QBs around. Even more, he's gotten better in the second half of the season, absolutely money since the bad Saints loss. Suppose that has to do with getting more familiar with his team and the coaches. I'm not selling his ability in a game like this short, that's for sure.

Top 5 QB this year? Off the top of my head...

Mahomes
Rodgers
Wilson
Watson
Allen
Herbert

Better than any of those? Maybe not Jackson either?

Most I've seen rate him low end of top 10 which is still an accomplishment at 43, no doubt, but it hurts that he can't move.

I'm not going to sell him short either, he is the GOAT IMO but not based on this year's play, LOL.

He brought a lot of intangibles to the team, he did. Leadership. Guys around him work harder, who wants to be the OL who gives up sack?

I think even the coaching staffs work harder with Brady around. Not looking at Winston but Brady under center is HUGE, LOL.

That said though I still think his on-field accomplishments are Brady brand stuff and get exaggerated.

I mean 3 INT's in the NFC title game? That's more than Winston threw if you average it out for a season.......

And all in the 2H? We got away with it but very fortunate to say the least.

Team has exceeded my expectations and those of most, certainly he is part of that but his part is a little smaller than how most see it.

Should be a good one though.....

 

[Jb777]

KC going to be the big public side......

Suspect the sharper folks will be on Tampa +3- (or better).

FTR I don't think it ever goes to 4 or 2- but a long way to go, we'll see.

Idk how big of a public side KC will be, I thought that would be the case with GB last week and that certainly was not the case, talked to a lot of guys who actually wrote more TB than GB last week. Also a lot of Bills action last week, I think this might be split down the middle with the public but only time will tell.

 

[janus]

Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
·
54m
Bucs and Chiefs enter critical phase of COVID precautions. Any player or coach with a positive test beginning today will be ruled out for the Super Bowl. Same protocols as regular season. Game on without key players if positive.


Yikes!

I got a sawbuck to anyone that can give Mahomes COVID the next week or so.

yikes is right... the potential covid effect on the game is incredible.