Texans/Browns

V

Valuist

EOG Master
Just walked the dog and its very similar to 2 weeks ago when the Raiders played the Browns. A little warmer now, but high winds and light rain. The gusts may not be as big, but the wind is constant.

Under 50 (bet earlier in the week). It's currently at 45. If it comes down more, would consider taking other side
Under 4.5 sacks (-130). I can't envision too many deep dropbacks. Will Fuller, don't expect to be catching any bombs. The passing will be limited to slants and screens.
Will there be a scoreless quarter: Yes + 286. At the price its worth a shot.

Haven't seem the player props but only one way to play Mayfield passing yards. Even if there was no wind, with Chubb back, I'd look for them to get him involved. Houston not used to these conditions but they have only rushed the ball over 100 yards three times. Defensively, they've given up over 160 rush yards five times this season.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
IWishIWasAPro said:
Any thoughts on betting Browns?
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Fundamentally they are the right side as they have the superior run game. Their run D also is better although they are coming off their worst performance against the run all season. I already have a season win total bet on the Browns, and their poor performance under similar conditions two weeks ago is enough for me to pass.

FWIW, Pittsburgh is only about 125 miles away, and wind should be a factor there as well. I think if one wanted to bet Cincy, they've missed their chance. Steelers very tough vs the run until 2 weeks ago, and now have given up 400 rush yards L2 games. Can't bet the over here either. I doubt we see over 50 pass attempts from Burrow but they really struggle to run,
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
I did bet Under 46 1/2 yards (-140) for longest field goal in the Bengals/Steelers game. That place is never easy for FGs, and we add in wind today.
 
choslamshe

choslamshe

EOG Master
Prop lines im seeing all seem to be pretty fair. Mayfield total pass attempts 27.5, yards 200.5.

Both Hunt and Chubb sitting at around 80.5 rush + receiving yards.

One that does stand out all things considered is Watson rushing yards 35ish. Might see a few more keeps on any type of rpo. Could see him using his legs a couple/few extra carries today and all he needs is one to break it.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
choslamshe said:
Prop lines im seeing all seem to be pretty fair. Mayfield total pass attempts 27.5, yards 200.5.

Both Hunt and Chubb sitting at around 80.5 rush + receiving yards.

One that does stand out all things considered is Watson rushing yards 35ish. Might see a few more keeps on any type of rpo. Could see him using his legs a couple/few extra carries today and all he needs is one to break it.
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Watson over rush yards is about the only offensive over I can see. He will find out early he can't take 5-7 step drops. Johnson is out for Houston, so Watson may have to rely on his legs.
 
MadTiger

MadTiger

2
Valuist said:
I did bet Under 46 1/2 yards (-140) for longest field goal in the Bengals/Steelers game. That place is never easy for FGs, and we add in wind today.
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That is a good bet. I live in Akron (39 miles away) and it is WINDY. Not sustained, but serious gusts.
 
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Valuist said:
Fundamentally they are the right side as they have the superior run game. Their run D also is better although they are coming off their worst performance against the run all season. I already have a season win total bet on the Browns, and their poor performance under similar conditions two weeks ago is enough for me to pass.

,
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I made Clev -1 here
but passing on Texans
 
I

IWishIWasAPro

EOG Master
I barely got in California -163 and Browns -222 parlay. Browns price was rising quick. But interesting over was getting action it scared me off.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
The “will there be a scoreless quarter” bet at +286 already a winner. Texans were deep in red zone and turned ball over on downs
 
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