THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Ned

EOG Veteran
#1
Let me offer a disclaimer before I get into this. I'm not an advocate of chase systems whatsoever, they almost always end in big losses, no matter how good they are, how well concieved, they require you to wager tons of money and lay it all on the line for the hopes of 1 unit several times during their course. With that said I think I have devised one, that eliminates the huge risk by playing into a 5th,6th, or 7th game, because this one only requires you to double up 3 times at the most, and there is a safer version of this same formula, that would require doubling up just 1 time, certainly not too threatening.

THE SYSYEM:

Wager on all the teams that were in the playoffs last year in game 1 (if 2 playoff teams happening to be playing each other you pass). If it losses, you double up on them to win through game 4 only! You double your bet, plus 1 unit, as you are seeking to win one unit. As soon as they win, even if it is game 1, you STOP! DO NOT PLAY THEM AGAIN. The first time they win you stop, be it game 1,2,3 or 4, and if they don't win any of their first 4, then you also STOP!

THE RESULTS: (My records go back to 1997, so the system then starts in 1998. That is 10 years.

10 years, with 8 teams in the playoffs each year = 80 teams to wager on, 8 per year.

THIS SYSTEM HAS GONE 80-0 as not a single playoff team over the last 10 years has lost their opening 4 games, in fact, just 3 times in the 10 years did they even lose as many as their first 3!!!

GAME 1: 49-31
GAME 2: 23-8

THAT MEANS 72 of the 80 possible teams won befoe game 3, so 90% of the time you double up once and win! You will never find a chase system in the history of anyone presenting one, that has you out of the chase 90% of the time after game 2, that is unheard of!

GAME 3: 5-3

That means you are done in 77 of the 80 games after game 3 or 96.3% of the time!

GAME 4: 3-0

100% winners through 4 games!!!!

YEAR BY YEAR RESULTS:

2007:

5 ended in game 1
1 ended in game 2
2 ended in game 3

2006:

4 ended in game 1
1 ended in game 2
2 ended in game 3
1 ended in game 4

2005:

7 ended in game 1
1 ended in game 2

2004:

3 ended in game 1
4 ended in game 2
1 ended in game 3

2003:

5 ended in game 1
3 ended in game 2

2002:

5 ended in game 1
2 ended in game 2
0 ended in game 3
1 ended in game 4

2001:

5 ended in game 1
3 ended in game 2

2000:

6 ended in game 1
1 ended in game 2
0 ended in game 3
1 ended in game 4

1999:

7 ended in game 1
1 ended in game 2

1998:

2 ended in game 1
6 ended in game 2

OVERVIEW:

50% of the time 5 of the 10 years, amazingly end in game 2!!!!
30% chance of going to a game 4 but never lost


So the best and least risky strategy here may be to play a 2 game chase with the 8 teams. In doing so you would have been 8-0 in 5 of the 10 years or 50% of the time, not many systems that give you a 50% chance of going 8-0 in a 2 game chase. You also would have gone 7-1 or better in 8 of the 10 years or 80% of the time!!!!

So there are the facts. You have 3 choices, stand back and ignore, and watch, play the low risk system that has shown 10 years of at least going 7-1, or go for the 8 unit hit, which offers substantially more risk, but at the same time, it has never lost!

Your choice!
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#3
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

It's 80 units you double up to win +1 unit for profit so each win is exactly 1 unit
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#5
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Good honest info here..good record keeping .. well described.....but Id strongly suggest to only play a side if you think the price on that actual game is an overlay..all other systems and chase systems will fail at some point.
 
#6
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

How do you take into account whether a team is +170 or -140 for a contest?

Will you be posting the plays for the each of the 8 teams this year?
 

shdw01

EOG Dedicated
#8
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

at -110, we would win $700

and lose 1018.71 for a net loss of $318.71....

since we are talking about the playoff teams, they will of course be heavier favs than 110....

at a "modest" -150 line all 4 games, we win $700 and lose $2343.75.....for a net loss of $1643.75



*assuming we are playing $100/game
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#9
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

All good points, some are actually dogs if they are on the road, I would suggest playing just through 2 games, obviously from some of the posts here, some understand completely, and some have no idea.
 

Superskrub

EOG Enthusiast
#10
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

If you go 6-2 on the two round chase you will probably end up loosing money, is that correct, as most of these teams will be favourites?

If you go 7-1 you will win about 3-3,5 units

I see your figures but vant understand why it works this good
Most often sharp players will avoid betting the good teams from last year as the people remember primarily those teams and b?t them, thus taking away any value
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#11
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Over the last 10 years it has gone 7-1 or better 90% of the time, so 6-2 based on historic numbers occurs 10% of the time. 8-0 occurs 50% of the time, sports investing is based on what is most likely to happen, not what is least likely to happen, I would suggest if your hedging, then it is not for you and go with the option that says, DO NOT PLAY! I present information here, I don't dictate what you should or shouldn't do, that is entirely up to you.
 

nydoc

EOG Dedicated
#12
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

was there a second system that you said you use the first 8 games that you have not mentioned yet. initially you said 60-80 games the first week of the season. thanks for your input.
 

Bailey

EOG Addicted
#13
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Boston is playing TB so you pass on that do you play these teams in their second series or just play 6 teams this year
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#14
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

I have another system that yields a high amount of games, but I'm seeing so many skeptics here, I don't want to expend so much energy explaining it, because it also plays into the teeth of this sytem, and I can already hear the out-cry from playing both congruously.
 

Hennessey

EOG Dedicated
#15
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

The game is to be sold not told. He just lay it out for the rest to play it out.

Keep up the great work Ned. You're solid.
 

Bailey

EOG Addicted
#16
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Ned.I was fortunate enough to follow you on Bracket Buster,NBA under 80 as well as NCAA tourney.Still far ahead tailing you on these.I appreciate your efforts to provide us with your various systems.The people who are serious "investors" have to make their own decisions as to whether or not to play the selections.As soon as you hit the submit button for a wager the responsability is on the player not the person giving the picks.I for one hope you continue to post your system plays.I may not play all the systems you suggest but any plays I make are on me not you.
 

Jambruins

EOG Enthusiast
#17
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

I have another system that yields a high amount of games, but I'm seeing so many skeptics here, I don't want to expend so much energy explaining it, because it also plays into the teeth of this sytem, and I can already hear the out-cry from playing both congruously.
Let us hear about this system. Sure, some people are going to bash but if you are winning money who cares. Let's hear about it.
 

Hennessey

EOG Dedicated
#18
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Please continue to post. Some people like to lose. Others like to listen to what you have to say. Most of us appreciate you sharing your thoughts and systems.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#19
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Anything from you with positive results and a significant sample size is worth a go for me. Thanks Ned.
 
#20
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Ned there are some of us who want to become investers and appreciate what you share with us.There always will be bashers and losers!
 
#21
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

this is a martingale, which is a proven long term losing strategy....period.

try and shake it up how you like or say its different this time because, but this is just a bad idea.
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#22
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

I agree with your thoughts on "martingale", my first line of explanation attested to that.

I agree with you wholeheartedly on playing something that doubles up going 4 deep, the risk is extremely high, no arguement.

I will however suggest you respond to the following?

What about the subset of playing a system that doubles up 1 time, and wins 90% of the time? Is that "martingale"

See I guarantee you, or if your an exception, then many here, have lost 100.00 or whatever they may be betting, and followed up the next night wagering 200.00 on another game, with a 50% chance of winning! 1 unit on one play one night, and then 2 units on another play the same or next night.

here is why you see it this way. If hypothetically this system lost for you it didn't work, because your measuring it on 1 year, one time, while I measure everything I do as being continuous, it doesn't end with the end of a system, it doesn't end on a given night, a given week, it never ends!!

My point being this. if this or anything else I wager on wins or losses, it isn't the system that wins or loses, it is a never ending series of wagers in a continued never ending cycle. My approach isn't on the single entity, it is on the continuem. If you have a 60-65% chance of winning with everything you do, it doesn't matter which ones lose, and which ones win, they will always be different. See most look at bracketbuster, NCAA Tournament, NBA picks, etc. as a single entity, it is a stream of entities for me, it doesn't matter what a specific one does win or lose, that's what most don't understand.
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#23
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

See it only matters if you lose all at once, if that loss takes you out of the game. Does it matter if you lose 20 units on one calculated high percentage risk, or lose 20 units on a month's worth of bad picks?

The way you answer that question determines whether your a gambler or an investor.

I will never wager an amount that has me out of the game, but I will wager 20 units on a high percentage likelyhood of winning to win 1 unit, or 2 units, or 3 units, that's the difference.
 

tool21

EOG Dedicated
#24
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Appreciate the work ned....

but

what if pre 1998 it did terrrible? 80 games isn't even close to enough games to have a sample for a 4 game chase....

Any bum could chase the Red Sox to win one of 4 games at home against a sub .500 team 6 times a year....:+clueless
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#25
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Guys I'm spending to much time here, trying to answer the skeptics, my advise, as originally posted is, if you don't trust what you see, or feel it is too risky, then pass! I'm not sure I will play the 4 game chase, I'm still equating to which is more valuable, not which is the riskiest, that is obvious, I'm not afraid of calculated risk.
 
#26
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

No need to stuff it down their throats, Ned. Let skeptics be skeptics and move on about business as usual...

For the skeptics, your crying about the matingale like system may be meant as a warning for the lesser experienced. In that context it's justified... but otherwise stop the whining!

Ned has but out some solid work - use it as you like, mold it to suit your preferences. If you just don't like the statistical approach there is no need for you to get involved here.

I just saw the system, so haven't really made up my mind on it... the number of games isn't statistically safe, but systems rarely are... betting statistical angles usually comes down to... do you find good reason that the trend will hold up?

For this system... going 49-31 in the first game just shows that playoff teams are usually still more solid than the opposition... come next season. If someone hands me the playoff teams for the last few seasons (think I have lines dating back to 2003) I can quickly see if the system would have yielded a 1st game profit for these years.

The buttom line, however, the beaty of a forum is to have your ideas tried in teori before risking your money. It seems to me, Ned, that you would prefer no questions asked. Instead there might be something to take from some of the comments... and don't get too involved with people that obviously don't support the basis of your approach... the statistical angle.

Personally, I NEVER follow anything blind, but I like to look into anything that looks interesting. I was too late for your first, very profitable, systems... I did find my own system for the Madness that supported the majority of your plays... my systems went about as well as yours :(
Your NBA80 system has been awesome this year, only trouble is it carries no support when back-tracked 4-5 years... but keep them systems coming and we will extract some gold... ;)
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
#27
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Horrible system. It's just another martingale system that will lose in the long run.

The only real system to win money betting at baseball is to bet a lot of dogs that have value, especially early in the year.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#28
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Horrible system. It's just another martingale system that will lose in the long run.

I'm not a big fan of chase systems, either, but you can be sure that anything Ned puts his name on has been checked and re-checked. To call it just another martingale is not a very informed statement, IMO.
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
#29
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

I'm not a big fan of chase systems, either, but you can be sure that anything Ned puts his name on has been checked and re-checked. To call it just another martingale is not a very informed statement, IMO.
Ok, fair enough. I read back over it and understand the rationale, however, the flaw is the same as every trend system- it is backfitted. I could find plenty of threads that would hit at smiliar percentages. What has happened in the past has zero barring on the present nor the future. There in is the flaw of the system. The sample size in this case is also way too small and doesn't take into account off season changes to last season's play off teams. I wish anyone who follows the best. Just remember- each game is an independent event. They don't have memories and no team is ever "due" to win any game. Just my opinion.
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#30
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

This is the reason I stay out of forums. The people that critisize are the most likely ones that are gamblers pure and simple, they are unteachable, I have won every single year at sports wagering, not a single year exception, but when you try to share some knowledge, it is best suited stuffed up under your cap, for those that made money, I left you with something to move forward, for those that just want to spray like a skunk, keep spraying, because the ears are no longer here. I wish you the best gentlemen!
 
#31
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Ease up Ned....I am a fan of your work and get what you are saying but just because other posters weigh in with opposite view points is no reason to run off.
 
#32
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

i have gambled for a few years and have realized the difference between gambling and investing.when you find someone like ned it sure helps the learning curve speed up.there is no book out there that teaches experience.the trouble with this it is hard to find someone with experience to share.thanks ned and hope you continue to help those of us who want to learn!
 

Superskrub

EOG Enthusiast
#33
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Ned what the units won-lost in round 1? It might actually be more profitable to sit out the first game and only start the chase if the team loses in round 1
That way the chase will at worst be 3 games deep, the ROI will be higher and the risk of loosing lower?
 
#34
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

This is the reason I stay out of forums. The people that critisize are the most likely ones that are gamblers pure and simple, they are unteachable, I have won every single year at sports wagering, not a single year exception, but when you try to share some knowledge, it is best suited stuffed up under your cap, for those that made money, I left you with something to move forward, for those that just want to spray like a skunk, keep spraying, because the ears are no longer here. I wish you the best gentlemen!
absolutely ridiculous.

Ned is trying to help gamblers win. I am too. We are all in this together trying to find a way to win.

Ned has an idea, I and some others disagree. For this we are called immature names like "bashers" and ned is complaining saying things like he is spending too much time on this. Correct there, the amount of time he should be spending suggesting people martingale public favorites who if anything are likely to be early overrated teams is ZERO.

But the "hero" to the squares is the guy with the easy to follow system, touting results that do not matter gambling wise since we cannot retroactively bet the last 10 years and its all based on a tiny sample. I am not going to spend time pointing out all the flaws in this, the holes in the bucket are obvious to anyone with a clue. Squares will judge on whether it wins over a few games of this year anyway.

But just very foolish to say someone is being the bad guy for suggesting people not martingale public favorites early in the season. How in the hell is that bad advice? unbelievable. :doh1

I could hardly think of a WORSE way to bet baseball.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#36
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

Ok, fair enough. I read back over it and understand the rationale, however, the flaw is the same as every trend system- it is backfitted. I could find plenty of threads that would hit at smiliar percentages. What has happened in the past has zero barring on the present nor the future. There in is the flaw of the system. The sample size in this case is also way too small and doesn't take into account off season changes to last season's play off teams. I wish anyone who follows the best. Just remember- each game is an independent event. They don't have memories and no team is ever "due" to win any game. Just my opinion.
Definitely an informed opinion, and one to consider.:cheers
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#37
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

I'll leave you with one thought. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but isn't every bet ever made backfitted? You take into account what a teams strengths and weaknesses are, vs a given opponent and utilize the information, based on what they did in the past, and speculate how it applies to the present!

QUOTE: The sample size in this case is also way too small and doesn't take into account off season changes to last season's play off teams

The sample size is 80 games, how many do you suggest their need be. Do you create an opinion of an NBA game during an 82 game season? Isn't that too small a sample size?

Do you create an opinion on an NFL team in a 16 game season, because through 15 games, that is 18.75% the sample size I am talking about here.

QUOTE: I could find plenty of threads that would hit at smiliar percentages

OK, you made a statement, please post many threads that hit 90% in a 2 game chase over 80 games, if you find the many you claim to have, I'll shut up, but I would bet my last dollar, you will find ZERO!!!!!

The system is 80-0 to a 4 game stretch

HERE IS WHAT I WROTE, but apparently you only chose to read and respond to what you read into it, ot what you read:

I agree with your thoughts on "martingale", my first line of explanation attested to that.

I agree with you wholeheartedly on playing something that doubles up going 4 deep, the risk is extremely high, no arguement.

I will however suggest you respond to the following?

What about the subset of playing a system that doubles up 1 time, and wins 90% of the time? Is that "martingale"?

Please respond to that.

Before you come in and bombard with thoughts, that are to be nice, not well thought out, if you have so many great systems, and you can find so many, I'll issue you a challenge. I'll put up whatever money you want to put up, HUGE, or tiny, 100 games, any kind of wager you want to make, straight bets, ATS, ML, teasers, any bets you wish, you make the rules, and after 100 bets whoever has the most units won, all bets worth 1 unit, the winner will donate the amount you choose to bet to the charity of his choice, and the moderators at EOG, if they are so inclined, will hold the money we send them for the wager in escrow til we each amass 100 wagers. If you want to come in here and spill your poison, your certainly free to do so, but if you want to back up the words you speak, then anytime, any place, anywhere, any type, your choice, 100 games, any amount you want, and I have no limit! I"M ALL IN!

If you lose, I'll give you rematches, for as long as you choose. I have not a dime to profit, it all goes to charity, my profit will be showing you, that the words you type, have absolutely ZERO value or understanding of what you are talking about!
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#38
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

ABOUT Backfitting:

Do you even understand what you said? Backfitting meaningless data such as the Vikings are 12-0 on Thursday, when it is 55-60 degrees, on the road, in January, is meaningless backfitted "noise".

Meaningful backfitting runs the world!

Your doctor uses it, when he examines something that is wrong with you, because he has 100s of cases worth of experiences that lead him to a diagnosis.

Weather computers are all backfitted with data of 850mb charts, and past storm behaviors, to create the "most likely" scenerio to occur from a storm forming.

The stockmarket is backfitted, to help predict the future bull or bear market based on the sever, not 80 events of similarity that occured before.

the Real Estate market is backfitted by interest rates, the economy, and what has happened under similar circumstances before.

BULLETIN:

EVERYTHING, EVERY VOCATION, with few exceptions, is backfitted with what has happened in the past.

Sports wagering is 100% backfitted! Your looking at teams, what they have done, strength, weakness. Why does the totals in NFL games go down when the weather report is for horrible game conditions? Because the past has indicated (at least many believe) that it will effect scoring!

BULLETIN:

No matter what your style of handicapping, your opinion is backfitted into what has happened before.

Those that learn how to use it most effectively, WIN, those that don't LOSE!!!

The object isn't to win 100%. Backfitting I agree 100% does not guarantee future results, absolutely no arguement there. What it does do, if learned how to use properly, and learn how to differentiate the "noise", the "anomolies", the "binomial distribution", from the crap, it helps you find what is most likely to occur, over what is least likely to occur.

Please explain to me how you handicap a game, and if you take anything into account from a past game, you have become a product of your own credo of calling backfitting eronious, and for most it is, but for those that are successful, they learn to find market inefficiencies, and win!
 

nydoc

EOG Dedicated
#39
Re: THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM

ned,

why dont you ignore these idiots. post the winners so we can all make some money and let these idiots fade you and lose their shirts. good luck and looking forward to your picks which have made me a nice sum over the last few years.

nydoc
 
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