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The Daytona 500 www.eog.com www.eogcontets.com www.fantasysportspicks.com www.therx.info www.therx.ws
The NASCAR Nextel Cup series kicks off the 2007 season with the running of the Daytona 500. Race Preview has looked at past performances, practice sessions, and trends to predict how the field might finish on Sunday.
When: Sunday, February 18; 2 p.m./et
Weather: Mostly sunny with a high around 58; wind out of the W at 12 mph. Chance of precipitation 10%.
The Track: Daytona International Speedway
Daytona International Raceway is a 2.5-mile tri-oval. It has extreme 31 degree banking on the corners which allows for drivers to run their cars wide-open nearly the entire way around the track. Because the fast speeds that the cars are able to run at Daytona, NASCAR has made all Nextel Cup races at the track restrictor plate races. This means all cars entered in the race must use the restrictor plates on their engines to limit air-intake and thus reduce their horsepower.
Key to Race: AVOID THE BIG WRECK
As is the case with all restrictor plate races, cars always become bunched in two and three-wide groups made of up to 30 cars. These freight train like packs cruise around the track at insane speeds just inches away from each other. It takes just one car to have a flat or get loose and a massive accident could wipe out half the field. A major accident will happen in Sunday's race. It is just a matter of when and how big. If a driver can get lucky and stay away from the inevitable crash he will have a great chance for a strong finish.
Qualifying Procedures:
61 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 starting spots. The top two spots will be locked in during Budweiser Pole day on Feb. 11th. Those cars that don't qualify in either of the top two spots and were not in the top 35 in the 2006 point standings will have to qualify based during the Feb. 14th Gatorade Duel races. Starting positions 3-39 will be determined by order of finish during the Gatorade Duel races and the final four spots will go to Nextel Cup Series past champions or cars that had fast speeds on Budweiser Pole day, but didn't fare well during the Gatorade Duel races.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet:
Tier 1
No. 20 Tony Stewart: Stewart has won two of the last three races at Daytona including last year's Pepsi 400. He won the Bud Shootout on Saturday and is a great choice to win on Sunday.
No. 48 Jimmy Johnson: It is tough not to pick the 2006 Nextel Cup champion. He won last year's 500 and has been pretty dominant (seven top 10 finishes in 10 career starts) at Daytona during his career.
No. 8 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior has been awesome in restrictor plate races during his career and he has been a virtual lock to finish in the top 10 at Daytona. He could notch his third career win at the famous track on Sunday.
No. 5 Kyle Busch: Busch finished second in the Pepsi 400 at Daytona in 2006. He is an interesting prospect during Sunday's race.
No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has five career full-length race wins at Daytona. He has been strong during the practice and qualifying sessions leading up to the race.
Tier 2
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has cracked the top 15 in the last three full-length races at Daytona. He will be without crew chief Robbie Reiser for the 500, but we still think he is a good fantasy option.
No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Sadler finished sixth and fourth in last season's two races at Daytona. He is a great restrictor plate driver and even without his crew chief we like his chances to make the top 10.
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick has three top 10 finishes in 11 career starts at Daytona. He finished in the top 15 in both races last season which is where we think he will finish on Sunday.
No. 25 Casey Mears: Daytona was very good to Mears in 2006 (second and seventh). He is driving a fancy new Hendrick Motorsports car and is our favorite sleeper pick for the race.
No. 2 Kurt Busch: Busch has finished in the top five in five of his 12 career Daytona starts. He is a hit-or-miss pick for Sunday's race.
Tier 3
No. 38 David Gilliland: Gilliland captured the pole for this year's Daytona 500 and finished second in the Bud Shootout on Saturday night. We think his chances to make the top 10 are slim, but he has been one of the most impressive drivers in the sessions leading up to the race.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin was a middle-of-the-packer at Daytona during the 2006 season. We think he will be very good during the 2007 season, but we don't highly recommend him on Sunday.
No. 07 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer finished sixth and 10th in his only Cup starts at Daytona. We think his is a solid play this weekend too.
No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya comes to NASCAR from Formula One. He has proved he is a very talented driver, but there might be an adjustment period for him. Since he has been hyped so much prior to the season he might be a little over-priced in fantasy leagues right now.
No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton was a fantasy dynamo in 2006, but he had the slowest car during Daytona practice this year and he averaged a 23rd place finish in both races at the track last year.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle won the Pepsi 400 at Daytona in 2003, but he hasn't had much luck other than that race. In eight career starts at Daytona the win is his lone top 10 finish.
No. 12 Ryan Newman: Newman finished third in last year's Daytona 500, but he struggled for most of the 2006 season. He hasn't been great in practice the past few weeks, so we don't advise using him until he can show some consistency.
No. 83 Brian Vickers: Vickers has been surprisingly good at Daytona in his career. He should be the top Toyota driver and could notch a decent finish on Sunday.
No. 88 Ricky Rudd: Rudd starts the Daytona 500 from the front row after he finished second during Bud Pole qualifying. He had the fastest car during practice and is a decent pick to finish the race in the top 15.
No. 9 Kasey Kahne: Daytona is a track that Kahne would rather avoid. He eventually will breakthrough, but without his crew chief we think he is too risky to use this weekend.
Tier 4
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards' average finish at Daytona in 2006 was 41.5. He proved he can drive in restrictor plate races at Talladega last year so we think he improve at Daytona on Sunday.
No. 21 Ken Schrader: Schrader finished 12th or better in the past three races at Daytona. He should have Little Debby smiling on Sunday.
No. 14 Sterling Marlin: Marlin has 21 top 10 finishes in 49 career Daytona starts. Obviously he knows what he is doing on the track. He is a decent sleeper pick this weekend.
No. 10 Scott Riggs: Riggs has had a very difficult time staying out of trouble during restrictor plate races and he is without his crew chief on Sunday. We like his chances in 2006, but avoid him on Sunday.
No. 1 Martin Truex Jr: Truex's best finish in three career starts at Daytona is 16th. He does have great equipment and should be in the top 20 on Sunday.
No. 26 Jamie McMurray: In eight career Daytona starts McMurray's average finish is a pathetic 33.6. He will finish better than that on Sunday, but we feel he is a risky fantasy pick.
No. 60 Boris Said: Said made the race with a very impressive showing during the Bud Pole. He finished fourth in the Pepsi 400 at Daytona and is a huge sleeper prospect for Sunday's race.
No. 7 Robby Gordon: Gordon finished in the top 15 in both races last season at Daytona. We like his chances to crack the top 20 again on Sunday.
No. 01 Mark Martin: Martin is behind the wheel of the 01 US Army car for Sunday's race. He should come cheap and finish in the top 20 for that reason he is a great fifth driver on most fantasy teams.
No. 40 David Stremme: Stremme had one of the top cars during the Bud Pole qualifying. He should improve on his 2006 season and is a decent fifth fantasy driver on most teams.
Tier 5
No. 18 J.J. Yeley: Yeley has never finished better than 37th at Daytona. We think there are much better options on Sunday.
No. 6 David Ragan: Ragan takes over the No. 6 car for Sunday's race. He has been alright during the practice sessions leading up to the race, but we don't think the rookie is much of a fantasy option.
No. 15 Paul Menard: Menard is one of our top rookie picks this season. He isn't a bad fifth option on fantasy teams.
No. 41 Reed Sorenson: Sorenson finished 26th in the 2006 Daytona 500. He should finish Sunday's race around the same spot.
No. 00 David Reutimann: Was the top Toyota during qualifying. He is a risky pick, but he should make the field.
No. 84 A.J. Allmendinger: Allmendinger joins Brian Vickers on Team Redbull. The rookie has plenty of experience in open-wheel racing, but he must prove himself in the Cup Series.
No. 44 Dale Jarrett: Jarrett has four career wins at Daytona, but he hasn't won at the famous track since 2000. He is a risky pick at best in his new Toyota.
No. 55 Michael Waltrip: Waltrip has usually been great at Daytona, but we are curious to see how he will do in the Toyota Camry. Stay away from him until he proves he can drive the new ride.
No. 96 Tony Raines: Raines will finish in the mid-to-late 30s on Sunday.
No. 45 Kyle Petty: Petty will once again be in the back-of-the-pack.
No. 66 Jeff Green: Green came in 42nd during last year's Daytona 500. He has just one top 10 finish in restrictor plate races during his career. Not a fantasy option.
No. 36 Jeremy Mayfield: Mayfield is a back-of-the-pack driver. He isn't a fantasy option.
No. 13 Joe Nemechek: Nemechek isn't much of an option on Saturday. He has just one top 10 finish in 25 career Daytona starts.
No. 37 Bill Elliott: Elliott doesn't have the best equipment to make noise in Sunday's race.
No. 43 Bobby Labonte: Labonte has finished 35th or worse in his last four starts at Daytona. Not someone to have on your team.
No. 22 Dave Blaney: Blaney is the definition of mediocre. He is never good, but never that bad. He won't help your fantasy team.
No. 23 Mike Skinner: Skinner is driving a Toyota this season. He was decent in qualifying, but he is still a poor fifth option on most fantasy teams.
No. 4 Ward Burton: Burton returns to the Nextel Cup after a hiatus. We want to see how the No. 4 car performs in a few races before using him on a fantasy team.
No. 70 Johnny Sauter: Sauter ran a fast enough lap during Bud Pole qualifying to be locked into the race. He will be lucky to make the top 40.
Field Fillers
No. 09 Mike Wallace: Is good at one track?Daytona. Still won't help your fantasy team.
No. 04 Eric McClure: McClure will likely be watching Sunday's race from the sideline.
No. 39 Regan Smith: Smith will share the No. 01 car with Mark Martin this season. He will be worth using as a fifth driver when he is in the 01 car, but we would avoid him when he is in the No. 39.
No. 34 Kevin Lepage: Lepage will struggle to make the race.
No. 49 Mike Bliss: It will be a challenge for Bliss to qualify for the race.
No. 27 Kirk Shelmerdine: Shelmerdine was one of the stories of the Daytona 500. We hope he makes this year's race too. He isn't a fantasy option.
No. 71 Frank Kimmel: The veteran Kimmel has almost zero chance to make the race.
No. 30 Stanton Barrett: Barrett will make a few races in 2007, but the Daytona 500 isn't one of them.
No. 74 Derrick Cope: Cope will struggle not to finish last in the qualifying race.
No. 58 James Hylton: Hylton is a NASCAR legend, but the old-timer won't make the field.
No. 78 Kenny Wallace: Wallace won't make the field.
No. 72 Brandon Whitt: Nope!
Brownie's Picks
Top Four:
1. Tony Stewart
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
4. Kyle Busch
Sleepers:
1. Elliott Sadler
2. Casey Mears
Busts:
1. Jamie McMurray
2. Carl Edwards
The NASCAR Nextel Cup series kicks off the 2007 season with the running of the Daytona 500. Race Preview has looked at past performances, practice sessions, and trends to predict how the field might finish on Sunday.
When: Sunday, February 18; 2 p.m./et
Weather: Mostly sunny with a high around 58; wind out of the W at 12 mph. Chance of precipitation 10%.
The Track: Daytona International Speedway
Daytona International Raceway is a 2.5-mile tri-oval. It has extreme 31 degree banking on the corners which allows for drivers to run their cars wide-open nearly the entire way around the track. Because the fast speeds that the cars are able to run at Daytona, NASCAR has made all Nextel Cup races at the track restrictor plate races. This means all cars entered in the race must use the restrictor plates on their engines to limit air-intake and thus reduce their horsepower.
Key to Race: AVOID THE BIG WRECK
As is the case with all restrictor plate races, cars always become bunched in two and three-wide groups made of up to 30 cars. These freight train like packs cruise around the track at insane speeds just inches away from each other. It takes just one car to have a flat or get loose and a massive accident could wipe out half the field. A major accident will happen in Sunday's race. It is just a matter of when and how big. If a driver can get lucky and stay away from the inevitable crash he will have a great chance for a strong finish.
Qualifying Procedures:
61 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 starting spots. The top two spots will be locked in during Budweiser Pole day on Feb. 11th. Those cars that don't qualify in either of the top two spots and were not in the top 35 in the 2006 point standings will have to qualify based during the Feb. 14th Gatorade Duel races. Starting positions 3-39 will be determined by order of finish during the Gatorade Duel races and the final four spots will go to Nextel Cup Series past champions or cars that had fast speeds on Budweiser Pole day, but didn't fare well during the Gatorade Duel races.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet:
Tier 1
No. 20 Tony Stewart: Stewart has won two of the last three races at Daytona including last year's Pepsi 400. He won the Bud Shootout on Saturday and is a great choice to win on Sunday.
No. 48 Jimmy Johnson: It is tough not to pick the 2006 Nextel Cup champion. He won last year's 500 and has been pretty dominant (seven top 10 finishes in 10 career starts) at Daytona during his career.
No. 8 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior has been awesome in restrictor plate races during his career and he has been a virtual lock to finish in the top 10 at Daytona. He could notch his third career win at the famous track on Sunday.
No. 5 Kyle Busch: Busch finished second in the Pepsi 400 at Daytona in 2006. He is an interesting prospect during Sunday's race.
No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has five career full-length race wins at Daytona. He has been strong during the practice and qualifying sessions leading up to the race.
Tier 2
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has cracked the top 15 in the last three full-length races at Daytona. He will be without crew chief Robbie Reiser for the 500, but we still think he is a good fantasy option.
No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Sadler finished sixth and fourth in last season's two races at Daytona. He is a great restrictor plate driver and even without his crew chief we like his chances to make the top 10.
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick has three top 10 finishes in 11 career starts at Daytona. He finished in the top 15 in both races last season which is where we think he will finish on Sunday.
No. 25 Casey Mears: Daytona was very good to Mears in 2006 (second and seventh). He is driving a fancy new Hendrick Motorsports car and is our favorite sleeper pick for the race.
No. 2 Kurt Busch: Busch has finished in the top five in five of his 12 career Daytona starts. He is a hit-or-miss pick for Sunday's race.
Tier 3
No. 38 David Gilliland: Gilliland captured the pole for this year's Daytona 500 and finished second in the Bud Shootout on Saturday night. We think his chances to make the top 10 are slim, but he has been one of the most impressive drivers in the sessions leading up to the race.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin was a middle-of-the-packer at Daytona during the 2006 season. We think he will be very good during the 2007 season, but we don't highly recommend him on Sunday.
No. 07 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer finished sixth and 10th in his only Cup starts at Daytona. We think his is a solid play this weekend too.
No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya comes to NASCAR from Formula One. He has proved he is a very talented driver, but there might be an adjustment period for him. Since he has been hyped so much prior to the season he might be a little over-priced in fantasy leagues right now.
No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton was a fantasy dynamo in 2006, but he had the slowest car during Daytona practice this year and he averaged a 23rd place finish in both races at the track last year.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle won the Pepsi 400 at Daytona in 2003, but he hasn't had much luck other than that race. In eight career starts at Daytona the win is his lone top 10 finish.
No. 12 Ryan Newman: Newman finished third in last year's Daytona 500, but he struggled for most of the 2006 season. He hasn't been great in practice the past few weeks, so we don't advise using him until he can show some consistency.
No. 83 Brian Vickers: Vickers has been surprisingly good at Daytona in his career. He should be the top Toyota driver and could notch a decent finish on Sunday.
No. 88 Ricky Rudd: Rudd starts the Daytona 500 from the front row after he finished second during Bud Pole qualifying. He had the fastest car during practice and is a decent pick to finish the race in the top 15.
No. 9 Kasey Kahne: Daytona is a track that Kahne would rather avoid. He eventually will breakthrough, but without his crew chief we think he is too risky to use this weekend.
Tier 4
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards' average finish at Daytona in 2006 was 41.5. He proved he can drive in restrictor plate races at Talladega last year so we think he improve at Daytona on Sunday.
No. 21 Ken Schrader: Schrader finished 12th or better in the past three races at Daytona. He should have Little Debby smiling on Sunday.
No. 14 Sterling Marlin: Marlin has 21 top 10 finishes in 49 career Daytona starts. Obviously he knows what he is doing on the track. He is a decent sleeper pick this weekend.
No. 10 Scott Riggs: Riggs has had a very difficult time staying out of trouble during restrictor plate races and he is without his crew chief on Sunday. We like his chances in 2006, but avoid him on Sunday.
No. 1 Martin Truex Jr: Truex's best finish in three career starts at Daytona is 16th. He does have great equipment and should be in the top 20 on Sunday.
No. 26 Jamie McMurray: In eight career Daytona starts McMurray's average finish is a pathetic 33.6. He will finish better than that on Sunday, but we feel he is a risky fantasy pick.
No. 60 Boris Said: Said made the race with a very impressive showing during the Bud Pole. He finished fourth in the Pepsi 400 at Daytona and is a huge sleeper prospect for Sunday's race.
No. 7 Robby Gordon: Gordon finished in the top 15 in both races last season at Daytona. We like his chances to crack the top 20 again on Sunday.
No. 01 Mark Martin: Martin is behind the wheel of the 01 US Army car for Sunday's race. He should come cheap and finish in the top 20 for that reason he is a great fifth driver on most fantasy teams.
No. 40 David Stremme: Stremme had one of the top cars during the Bud Pole qualifying. He should improve on his 2006 season and is a decent fifth fantasy driver on most teams.
Tier 5
No. 18 J.J. Yeley: Yeley has never finished better than 37th at Daytona. We think there are much better options on Sunday.
No. 6 David Ragan: Ragan takes over the No. 6 car for Sunday's race. He has been alright during the practice sessions leading up to the race, but we don't think the rookie is much of a fantasy option.
No. 15 Paul Menard: Menard is one of our top rookie picks this season. He isn't a bad fifth option on fantasy teams.
No. 41 Reed Sorenson: Sorenson finished 26th in the 2006 Daytona 500. He should finish Sunday's race around the same spot.
No. 00 David Reutimann: Was the top Toyota during qualifying. He is a risky pick, but he should make the field.
No. 84 A.J. Allmendinger: Allmendinger joins Brian Vickers on Team Redbull. The rookie has plenty of experience in open-wheel racing, but he must prove himself in the Cup Series.
No. 44 Dale Jarrett: Jarrett has four career wins at Daytona, but he hasn't won at the famous track since 2000. He is a risky pick at best in his new Toyota.
No. 55 Michael Waltrip: Waltrip has usually been great at Daytona, but we are curious to see how he will do in the Toyota Camry. Stay away from him until he proves he can drive the new ride.
No. 96 Tony Raines: Raines will finish in the mid-to-late 30s on Sunday.
No. 45 Kyle Petty: Petty will once again be in the back-of-the-pack.
No. 66 Jeff Green: Green came in 42nd during last year's Daytona 500. He has just one top 10 finish in restrictor plate races during his career. Not a fantasy option.
No. 36 Jeremy Mayfield: Mayfield is a back-of-the-pack driver. He isn't a fantasy option.
No. 13 Joe Nemechek: Nemechek isn't much of an option on Saturday. He has just one top 10 finish in 25 career Daytona starts.
No. 37 Bill Elliott: Elliott doesn't have the best equipment to make noise in Sunday's race.
No. 43 Bobby Labonte: Labonte has finished 35th or worse in his last four starts at Daytona. Not someone to have on your team.
No. 22 Dave Blaney: Blaney is the definition of mediocre. He is never good, but never that bad. He won't help your fantasy team.
No. 23 Mike Skinner: Skinner is driving a Toyota this season. He was decent in qualifying, but he is still a poor fifth option on most fantasy teams.
No. 4 Ward Burton: Burton returns to the Nextel Cup after a hiatus. We want to see how the No. 4 car performs in a few races before using him on a fantasy team.
No. 70 Johnny Sauter: Sauter ran a fast enough lap during Bud Pole qualifying to be locked into the race. He will be lucky to make the top 40.
Field Fillers
No. 09 Mike Wallace: Is good at one track?Daytona. Still won't help your fantasy team.
No. 04 Eric McClure: McClure will likely be watching Sunday's race from the sideline.
No. 39 Regan Smith: Smith will share the No. 01 car with Mark Martin this season. He will be worth using as a fifth driver when he is in the 01 car, but we would avoid him when he is in the No. 39.
No. 34 Kevin Lepage: Lepage will struggle to make the race.
No. 49 Mike Bliss: It will be a challenge for Bliss to qualify for the race.
No. 27 Kirk Shelmerdine: Shelmerdine was one of the stories of the Daytona 500. We hope he makes this year's race too. He isn't a fantasy option.
No. 71 Frank Kimmel: The veteran Kimmel has almost zero chance to make the race.
No. 30 Stanton Barrett: Barrett will make a few races in 2007, but the Daytona 500 isn't one of them.
No. 74 Derrick Cope: Cope will struggle not to finish last in the qualifying race.
No. 58 James Hylton: Hylton is a NASCAR legend, but the old-timer won't make the field.
No. 78 Kenny Wallace: Wallace won't make the field.
No. 72 Brandon Whitt: Nope!
Brownie's Picks
Top Four:
1. Tony Stewart
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
4. Kyle Busch
Sleepers:
1. Elliott Sadler
2. Casey Mears
Busts:
1. Jamie McMurray
2. Carl Edwards