The EOG Octagon (SLEEPY v RAILBIRD)

the problem is that in a 40 play contest if one contestant has a substantial lead after, say, 33 plays the contest becomes a game strategy event the rest of the way. it's really simple....the larger the number of plays required isolates the better handicapper with a greater degree of certainty.

isn't that what the contest is about, determining who is the better handicapper?
No, the purpose of the contest is to provide entertainment and about who can produce better results over a short span. Contest performance can almost always be improved by game theory, especially if you can characterize your opponents behavior, its just a fact. To determine the better handicapper (with 2 good cappers), to say 95% confidence level, and to within less than 1% win rate one would need somewhere close to 10,000 trials.
 
Im making it look easy with these big dogs, it really isnt this easy, sleepy has benefitted from 2 ot overs and 3 foul fest overs
Play these dogs in your first 10 picks and then it would be impressive....you are just playing dogs this late to make it look impressive.....you choked the contest away earlier which forced you to make plays that you would have never considered....tout talk is all you know....
 
Play these dogs in your first 10 picks and then it would be impressive....you are just playing dogs this late to make it look impressive.....you choked the contest away earlier which forced you to make plays that you would have never considered....tout talk is all you know....
I wonder what the average "juice" was on rail's plays prior to him having to start with these hail mary plays.

well north of -110 is my prediction.

rail is going to look into this and will stay quiet if I'm right.

He will post the results if I'm wrong.
 
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