The last minute of an NBA quarter

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Brace yourself.

The variance is extreme.

Bettors who are involved with NBA totals are familiar with the drill.

Scoreless minutes are possible but so too are minutes when both teams combine for 10, 11, 12 points or more.

One disadvantage for OVER bettors: They typically need BOTH pace and production to cash the bet.

One disadvantage for UNDER bettors: A lot of NBA shooters are deadly when left unguarded unlike their college counterparts who are hit-and-miss with the open jumper.

Pro basketball and college basketball are the same sport but they're completely different games.
 
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jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Foul fest was missing tonight. Seems lately like teams are playing out the defense and full court press electing to go for a steal multiple times in a possession rather than extending the game, especially with Portland up 5, their ball and less than a minute left.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
When I am doing a HS game and one team is up, say, 10+ with about 30 seconds left and is still fouling I put an end to that. If I can. I call an "Intentional Foul" and that puts and end to the fouling ASAP since now the team fouled gets 2 FT AND the ball. The losing team now gives up at least 1 more point and sometimes 2 - and the other team keeps the ball. I am all for fighting to the end but when the game is over and you refuse to acknowledge it I will do it for you.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Foul fest was missing tonight. Seems lately like teams are playing out the defense and full court press electing to go for a steal multiple times in a possession rather than extending the game, especially with Portland up 5, their ball and less than a minute left.

Indeed.

And especially so at the college level, JIMMY.

I don't see as many "foul fests" as in years past.

The 30-second shot clock is the driving reason.

Reduced from 35 seconds to 30 seconds before the 2015-16 NCAA hoop season.

Coaches also realize a narrow loss (4-6 points) to a nationally-ranked team looks a lot better in the eyes of the Selection Committee as opposed to a deficit that balloons to double-digits in the final minute of play.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
When I am doing a HS game and one team is up, say, 10+ with about 30 seconds left and is still fouling I put an end to that. If I can. I call an "Intentional Foul" and that puts and end to the fouling ASAP since now the team fouled gets 2 FT AND the ball. The losing team now gives up at least 1 more point and sometimes 2 - and the other team keeps the ball. I am all for fighting to the end but when the game is over and you refuse to acknowledge it I will do it for you.


There are Jordan Rules.

And then there are Winky Rules.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
About the 2-for-1 situations late in a quarter:

NBA point guards are dynamite with this strategy compared to college kids who are life-and-death to read the clock and dribble the ball at the same time.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
There are Jordan Rules.

And then there are Winky Rules.

I get paid by the game - not the hour. So I want them over with when they should and not one second longer

Many years ago I am doing a game. It is a 15-point game with 5 seconds left. Winning team has the ball and needs to inbound it near midcourt. They do. Kid for the winning team takes the ball and stands there just inside midcourt. There are 3 kids from the losing team near him. I am there saying: Don't foul, don't foul. Thankfully the kids listen, don't foul and the game is over. The losing team coach is not very happy with me. He said they had a play all set up and I stopped them from doing it. Seriously. I ask the coach - what was the play? Was it to foul the kid so he could go to the line with 3 seconds left and then you could throw a pass the length of the court with no one defending it? I tell him if the situation was reversed he would want the same done - just get the game over with. He didn't like what I said but I stand by what I did.

Coaches who think they are Pops or Phil Jackson coaching G7 of the Finals when they are really low-level flunkies who only got the job because no one else was dumb enough to take it really irk me.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Hmmm...

I respectfully disagree, Wink.

No matter the level of game, who are you to tell the players and coaches what to do?

And why do you want to leave the field of play so quickly?

I'll give you a pet peeve of mine involving officials and officiating.

I never like to see a football or basketball referee offer a hand to a fallen player.

We see it in the NFL, at times, when referees help a fallen quarterback to his feet.

Not in the job description and not a good look when fans expect the refs to be fair and unbiased.

Besides, why don't refs ever help a defensive player to his feet?
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Hmmm...

I respectfully disagree, Wink.

No matter the level of game, who are you to tell the players and coaches what to do?

And why do you want to leave the field of play so quickly?

I'll give you a pet peeve of mine involving officials and officiating.

I never like to see a football or basketball referee offer a hand to a fallen player.

We see it in the NFL, at times, when referees help a fallen quarterback to his feet.

Not in the job description and not a good look when fans expect the refs to be fair and unbiased.

Besides, why don't refs ever help a defensive player to his feet?
Because the training staff is already out there while the ref is too busy calling an OPI or a DPI. I think we see more refs assisting to a receiver who was victimized by receiving a hit from a Db to a defenseless player. I understand the concern of safety, but going forward these rules have been long overdue to be revisited when it comes to level of severity.
 

Drnkyourmlkshk

EOG Dedicated
I have bet NBA totals every night they've been available for the last 4 years I believe and I can tell you that it's the one sports market where if you have a bad number or dont time really well you're in for a really bad sweat. You're gonna take your lumps many nights and need a really forget last night approach winning or losing.
Someone very successful and smart (maybe the best ever) in the nba market told me very early on. Devote your time to bad coaches they're more profitable than good coaches. He wasnt wrong.
 

Patrick McIrish

OCCams raZOR
I have bet NBA totals every night they've been available for the last 4 years I believe and I can tell you that it's the one sports market where if you have a bad number or dont time really well you're in for a really bad sweat. You're gonna take your lumps many nights and need a really forget last night approach winning or losing. Someone very successful and smart (maybe the best ever) in the nba market told me very early on. Devote your time to bad coaches they're more profitable than good coaches. He wasnt wrong.


Spot on. Very good point.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I bet a lot more unders than overs, so I usually just don't watch the end. My watching the game isn't going to impact it, except get me pissed if its a tough beat.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Hmmm...

I respectfully disagree, Wink.

No matter the level of game, who are you to tell the players and coaches what to do?

And why do you want to leave the field of play so quickly?

I'll give you a pet peeve of mine involving officials and officiating.

I never like to see a football or basketball referee offer a hand to a fallen player.

We see it in the NFL, at times, when referees help a fallen quarterback to his feet.

Not in the job description and not a good look when fans expect the refs to be fair and unbiased.

Besides, why don't refs ever help a defensive player to his feet?

I will address these issues:

Who am I to tell the players/coaches what to do? Fair question. So when I am the lead (on the baseline) and I see an offensive player in the key and it is coming up on 3-seconds most good officials will say something like "Hey 32 - get out of the key." #32 knows what that means and he/she usually realizes they better leave the key ASAP or be called for 3-seconds. I use my voice to maintain a flow of the game. I use my voice to keep from blowing the whistle so the game flow is better - making both sides happy. I will never forget one game I had. I called a blocking foul right in front of the team's bench. No one disputed the call - even the coach of the team knew his kid was not in position. So the coach calls over his kid and tells him next time down make sure to be there first and have one foot on the court and one foot on the sideline so the player can't get past you and has to run you over and get the charging call. I was ready to put the ball in play but I stopped and told the coach that would be a bad idea. I told the coach if the defender had one foot on the sideline or end line, the offensive player could be running at full speed from the other baseline, knock his kid into the pool (The pool was about 15 feet beyond the back door) and the foul would be on his kid because if a defender has a foot on the base/end line and gets run over it is a blocking foul because the defender is not considered to be in a legal guarding position. Coach immediately tells the kid/his team, "Forget what I said." So here I saved the team by telling them what to do - and what not to do.

Why do I want to leave the court so quickly? We are told to do so. Next time you watch a game, notice the refs come out on the court wearing a jacket. That is required. They then fold it up and place it on the scorer's table. At halftime they bring the jackets inside with them. Usually what happens is the official closest to the table grabs all 2 or 3 and joins his/her partner(s) as they walk to the locker room. When they come back for 2h - they leave their jackets in the room. THAT IS DONE FOR A REASON! It is done so just in case the officials need to get off the court ASAP they can do so and not have to go get a jacket. The jacket is in their locker room. If the game is a blowout we will usually take our time getting off the court. The closer the game the faster we get off the court. Just know the score is not final until ALL officials leave the visual confines of the court. As long as ONE official is on the court the game is not over. Many years ago I did a game with a female official who was incompetent. There was a last second shot. I was under the basket but it was technically not my call. It was hers on the last second shot. It was a 1-point game. The team losing has the ball and fires up a shot. The buzzer sounds. About 1/2 second later the ball goes thru the hoop. For some reason she waived it off. I talked to her and said it sure looked good to me. She said it was not. I knew it was. She was the Referee and I was the Umpire so I did not have the authority to overrule her on the play. Instead I waited. I told both coaches and the scorer's table to stick around. I waited until she left the visual confines of the court. Once she did she lost all rights to do anything. Once she left I turned to the table and told them to count the basket. That changed the outcome of the game. Things went crazy after that. Once I counted the basket and things started going crazy I got out of there ASAP. NOW the game was final since all officials left the visual confines of the court. Needless to say the losing coach called my board and ripped me a new one for what I did. I told my board what happened. I said I was 100% sure it was a good basket. The game was on video so I asked them to check and see and they would see I was right. They saw the video. They saw I was right and she was wrong. They pulled her schedule and told her she was not welcome back any more. THAT is why refs leave the court fast - most of the time.

As for a Ref extending a hand to help a player up: I have NEVER done that and NEVER will. Even many years ago pre-Covid. That is not my job. I agree it looks bad, too. Let their teammates help them up. The one things I have done a few times and will continue to do is this: If I am on the baseline and a player is falling with their back to me and I can keep him/her from falling on their back I will catch them and keep them from falling. This saves a potentially bad injury (maybe a concussion if they whip back their head on the court) but it is also something easy to do and something I would hope would be done for me. I have done this less than 10 times - probably less than 5. One time I did it and after the game the kid's parents thanked me for doing so and potentially saving their son from a serious injury. The sad thing about it is there was a foul on the play. I go to raise my right arm for a foul but see the kid falling so my arm barely got up so I could catch the kid. Turns out I was being evaluated that game. The guy doing it sees me after the game and marked me down for not raising my arm all the way on that play. I ask him if he saw me catch the kid and save him from falling. Evaluator said he did. I then spend the next 20 seconds calling the evaluator every 4 letter word in the book and tell him he should rip me for not catching him not catching him.
 

Patrick McIrish

OCCams raZOR
I bet a lot more unders than overs, so I usually just don't watch the end. My watching the game isn't going to impact it, except get me pissed if its a tough beat.


To me hoop totals are the worst thing to watch. I never do.

And that goes for college hoop totals too.....

I'd spend my life pissed off if I did.
 
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