The Week after Turkey Day Week, NFL picks and info

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#4
I don't like the Bears at all if Amukamura doesn't play. He was the DB who was responsible for Cooper. If he's out, I'm on Dallas.

Detroit +13 - Seen this a couple of times this season with a team last playing on Thursday playing a team last playing on Monday night. Minn is beat up at the skilled positions and the back door is wide open for Detroit here.

Tenn over 46.5 - They are the 2nd highest scoring team since Tannehill took over at QB. I don't see the raiders slowing them down much. Oakland will score some also.

Cinn over 41 - Cinn is much better with Dalton, and he has Boyd back. Cleveland may get this total themselves also.

NO =2.5-120 - SF coming off a very physical game out east vs Balt, now facing another physical team in NO. This game could be a DD victory for the Saints. How much does SF have in the tank after a Seattle-Balt-NO stretch?
 
#7
Okay, so here are my quick thoughts regarding some of these games. I played Wash +13, this one worries me a little since the Skins don't have the fire power to come back if they get down big, but the one thing they're good at is running the ball, they average 4.6 yards per rush which plays nicely into the Packers defense which allows 4.7 yards per rush, hoping Guice and Peterson have big days, and while GB's record of 9-3 looks impressive, they've only outscored their opponents by 3 points per game and have actually been outgained yardage wise on the season, Wash has won their last two games so they haven't quit on the season, this is my least favorite play of the day, but the line has dropped from the opener, so at least it appears like I'm on the sharp side.

I took the Broncos +10, this is a great spot to fade the Texans, they're coming off consecutive wins against division rival Indy, and the Sunday night game against NE, and next week they play another divisional game against Tennessee, which is a big game since the Titans are in second place in the division. I've posted before how Denver is better than their record of 4-8, of their 8 losses 5 have been one score games, and while their offense isn't much, they do have a very good defense, they should be able to keep Watson in check long enough to get the cover. Between Denver's defense plus the bad spot for Houston, it puts me on the dog.

I played the Raiders +3. This one is another game where it's a great spot to fade the chalk. The Titans are coming off consecutive wins against KC, and divisional opponents Jax, and Indy, and next week they've got a big game against Houston, this week they travel out West to play Oakland, this is a tough spot for the Titans. The Raiders are coming off back to back road losses against the Jets and Chiefs, and have looked bad, but that gives them value this week, had these teams played a couple weeks ago the Raiders would be the favorite, I think the game should be a pick, so I'll gladly take +3 against the team in a bad spot schedule wise. Coming off back to back poor performances I'm expecting a big effort from the Raiders in front of the home fans.

I played the Rams +1. Seattle is 10-2 but 9 of those wins have been one score games, they're not as good as their record, and this one is a bigger game for LA. the Rams are coming off a great performance last week so hopefully they can build on that, and the Hawks are travelling on a short week since they played Monday night. The public right now is big on Seattle, but the line has moved toward the Rams, it's setting up as a Pros vs Joes, and I'll side with the pros on this one.

I played the Bengals + 8, normally I get the best of the number, or at least try to, but this time I'm late to the party. The Browns are coming off an emotional game against the Steelers and a game they really needed to win, now they take on a bad Bengals team that they should have a tough time getting up for. I posted this last week when I backed the Bengals, but of their 11 losses, most of them have been competitive games, and Andy Dalton gave them some life last week, this is a rivalry game so I expect max effort from them, and I don't know where the Browns collective heads will be following a loss that puts them at 5-7, and I don't trust Kitchens to have them as prepared as they should be, and as Valuist pointed out in his thread, the Bengals D has been improving week to week, think it's a good spot too back them.
 
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