This ain't no Mouse in the House

[GameBred]

This is what you call a real MoFo.

https://player.fm/series/gambling-with-an-edge/gambling-with-an-edge-super-bowl-2021

It;s too bad Frank has taken such a long sabbatical from EOG posting, that dude is GameBred Approved.

 

[John Kelly]

Frank B (aka Voodoo) is outstanding.

Just now listening to Frank's commentary.

 

[John Kelly]

Anthony Curtis misspoke out of the gate.

Called Jim McIngvale's store Galaxy Furniture instead of Gallery Furniture.

No biggie.

 

[John Kelly]

Anthony talked about hunting and securing numbers for "Mattress Mack."

Secured the Tampa Bay Bucs +3.5 for Super Bowl LV as a hedge against the Bucs winning the Super Bowl.

Mack has a 13% probability of scooping the Super Bowl, according to Frank B, having Kansas City win the game by 1, 2 or 3 points and denying customers from winning free furniture with a Tampa Bay victory in Super Bowl LV.

 

[John Kelly]

Frank and Anthony serve as gambling consultants, more or less, to "Mattress Mack."

 

[John Kelly]

Mattress Mack's slogan: Get it all, win it all.

 

[John Kelly]

Frank B. now lives in Mexico.

A lifestyle change for him.

 

[John Kelly]

In Mexico, you're laying -118 instead of -110 with sports wagers.

 

[John Kelly]

One of the new rules in Mexico during COVID-19 in 2021, a 4.44% tax on buy-in and a 9% tax on casino winnings.

Double taxation.

 

[John Kelly]

Baja and Baja Sur charge 7% of your net return in the sports book.

 

[John Kelly]

You cannot beat that type of vig in Mexico, says Anthony Curtis.

And the same thing is happening in Las Vegas.

Not quite as blatant as Mexico but close.

Anthony has been a player advocate for years.

 

[John Kelly]

Las Vegas casinos are getting more and more stingy as the years go by.

Richard Munchkin is disappointed at the trend.

 

[John Kelly]

Super Bowl LV now being discussed.

 

[John Kelly]

Bruce Arians' philosophy: No risk it, no biscuit.

He may take the ball if Tampa Bay wins the toss.

 

[John Kelly]

Frank B cites Tom Brady's first-quarter futility in past Super Bowls.

The Pats did not score a point in the first quarter of the first eight Brady-Belichick Super Bowls.

No scoring in the first five or five-and-a-half or six minutes is attractive.

Tampa Bay punting first, possibly.

 

[John Kelly]

Bet against the public in Super Bowl props.

Wait until the public plays and then attack.

Player props are priced right at CRIS, Westgate and Circa compared to say an MGM or Caesars out.

 

[ComptrBob]

Frank B. now lives in Mexico.

A lifestyle change for him.

Frank B cites Tom Brady's first-quarter futility in past Super Bowls.

The Pats did not score a point in the first quarter of the first eight Brady-Belichick Super Bowls.

Frank has been going to Mexico part-time now for several years.

Also he was mistaken (around 21:30 of the show) saying that the Patriots (w/ Belichick/Brady) had gone 8 straight 1st Q SBs without a score. The Pats scored a FG in SB LII against the Eagles, not in the SB LIII against the Rams.

 

[John Kelly]

Three players to monitor in terms of health: Antonio Brown and Scottie Miller of the Bucs and Sammy Watkins of the Chiefs.

When news breaks on one player, it will affect the production of teammates in the receiver group.

 

[John Kelly]

Tampa Bay's defense against the pass: They surrender a high amount of completions but it's a lot of small stuff underneath the coverage.

Length of first reception by KC's receivers should be UNDER as a first look.

 

[John Kelly]

Homemade cross-sport props always offer a good opportunity but they take a lot of time to dissect/handicap..

 

[John Kelly]

Frank's favorite cross-sport prop on Super Bowl LV is coming up.

 

[John Kelly]

Suns TT versus the Chiefs rushing yards.

Frank B made the Suns total 109.5.

The Chiefs averaged 113 rushing yards this regular season.

 

[John Kelly]

But Tampa Bay allowed only 81 rushing yards per game.

Kansas City OL not healthy, running backs not healthy.

 

[John Kelly]

Suns TT was the bet.

Suns went from -0.5 to -15.5 on the prop.

Phoenix scored 100 points today.

Kansas City's rushing yards prop is 84 yards or thereabouts.

 

[John Kelly]

Frank B reviewed the Patrick Mahomes' prop fiasco in last year's Super Bowl where Patrick took multiple kneel-downs for minus 12 yards or thereabouts.

WildBill lost on this prop last year.

 

[GameBred]

Frank B (aka Voodoo) is outstanding.

Just now listening to Frank's commentary.

Top-shelf, I love listening to real MoFo's discuss their craft.

 

[John Kelly]

Frank B talks about Mahomes' turf toe injury.

 

[John Kelly]

Top-shelf, I love listening to real MoFo's discuss their craft.

Thanks for the link, GameBred.

 

[John Kelly]

OVER 19.5 (-112) on Mahomes' rushing yards is a play for Frank B.

A rare over for Frank B as he is bucking the news on Patrick's toe and the overreaction of the betting market.

 

[John Kelly]

Anthony Curtis now talking about Super Bowl parties in Las Vegas.

Talks about mask policies in LV casinos.

 

[John Kelly]

Recommendations coming up at the end of the show.

 

[GameBred]

Thanks for the link, GameBred.

You're welcome.

Good notetaking on your part.

 

[John Kelly]

Richard Munchkin recommends a podcast called "Planet Money."

Bob Dancer recommends a Ken Follett novel "The Evening and The Morning."

AC recommends a way to save money on gas at the Wild Wild West truck stop, saving about 45 cents a gallon.

Eager to hear Frank's recommendation after these three humdingers.

 

[GameBred]

Frank has been going to Mexico part-time now for several years.

Also he was mistaken (around 21:30 of the show) saying that the Patriots (w/ Belichick/Brady) had gone 8 straight 1st Q SBs without a score. The Pats scored a FG in SB LII against the Eagles, not in the SB LIII against the Rams.

You know what's weird, I actually thought I knew that because that is the only SB I've watched in long while but I'll check this one out.

 

[John Kelly]

AC tells us the "going price" for a working girl near the Wild Wild West is $100.

$100.

 

[John Kelly]

The vig matters, says Frank B.

House edge is 4.54% at -110, 6.5% at -115 each way and more than 8% at -120 each way.

Frank B then tabs Mister D's as an excellent Las Vegas bar with an old-school vibe and attractive, scantily-clad female bartenders.

Video poker with 99% returns and good food at reasonable prices.

 

[John Kelly]

My only disappointment: No final score prediction from FRANK B.