Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.
If you have 15000 scaps tracked then you have at least 10-12K examples of where Pinnacle was off enough to assume a lean. Feel free to go and see how many times they were 'right' and how many times they were wrong.
Or I will simply make this assumption, in about 70-75% of those scalps Pinny actually had the best number BOTH ways on the SAME game, so therefore the next logical question would be how do you determine a lean there when theyre leaning against themselves?
MOI - that is not true in my case. I am talking about getting buy back at Pinny or Matchbook. # moves and you get -110 or whatever on a number and you get the other side at Pinny for +113 or better - bang bang. Pinny does not have the best # on both sides in any of those cases. They did most likely have the best # on the buy back side.
Now, I certainly didn't get them all - So, there are imperfections in my data. On top of that a % of the buy backs might have actually had value if Pinny was just trying to get even. I just don't know why they did what they did. Because, the results are not sorted for variables. So, I do agree with you that only a % of the data includes cases where Pinny did have an opinion. On top of that the buy back side was not always on the favorite or dog - the over or the under. Some sports like baseball most of the value seems to develop on the dog side.
All, I am really trying to say is scalping and keeping track of the results taught me a little something that I can use. And that there is more to learn about the numbers and how to incorporate fundamentalism into the overall handicapping process. Being 100% technical and betting on numbers and not caring about which team it is does have flaws and is not a totally efficient model. I only cared about the data so I was leaning my scalps to try and make as much as I could. Now my focus is to make some money without such a tremendous capital outlay and risk of principal.
Real time scalps are nearly impossible these days. They were nearly impossible 6 or 7 years ago. Thats why I adapted to taking leads and buying back, same animal different ammunition.
I focused primarilly on baseball since they offer ML odds from the first offering. Spread based sports have way too many inconsistencies to form any real opinion.
Now, they guys that like to focus on this so called lean are under the assumption that middle of the pack moves and lines mean more than early and late lines do because that is when the 'sharps' are betting them and the limits are at their peak. That is incorrect. But I wont get into all of it because I do like to keep some things close to the vest.
But regardless lines are changing constantly. Look at a typical NBA game, spreads moves, totals move which in some cases causes the vig on the spread to move, MLs move which can sometime effect the spread and the vig on the spread. So many moving parts and so many different ways they do it there is no way to tell. Unless people had access to the total handle on tht particular game and compared it to other games with similar (or better yet EXACT) moves and vigs and spreads and totals, there is no way to know what theyre doing.
I bought early then bought back. According to people here If I got in big on a 'better' (pre steam) move I would have way the best of it. I tracked my leads every day and at all sorts of intervals. I got a 'good' lead (one that offered the best price, or within a penny or two, of the day) about 90% of the time. Thats is pretty good. Most guys would claim impossible and others would say it would be a license to steal. But like I say I tracked those moves and I did better in the long run buying back for a guaranteed profit. I didnt always buy back full but in most cases i did. Just depends on the reason for the moves in some cases.
For example say I averaged buying a side -115 the average closing line on the teams I bet ended up being -137. So on average I got 22 cents better. According to some of the smart guys I couldnt lose doing that. Which may or may not be true. Again Im not going to give specifics. Just say that taking the +129 on average was better than sitting pat with the better prices. The 3% guaranteed profit outweighs the 'advantages' of getting a better price one way.
This all boils down to approach. I dont take opinions from anyone. The new approach for guys is to listen to anyone who is smart and learn from that. I say I learned more on my own than those guys can show me. That may or may not be true. But in the end the only opinion you should be relying on is your own. At least if youre serious about it. All you get from following other guys or second guessing yourself due to some imaginary lean or someone elses opion is confusion. In the end you have to think your opinion and reasoning is better than theirs over the long haul. Guys are gong to be right when your wrong, you will be right when theyre wrong. Thats how it goes. The seret is to get paid the most when your right and be right more times than they are wrong.
I have said it before me and you could play 500 games exactly the same side in baseball. We are obviously then going to have the same exact record. If you get 3 or 4 cents more than me on winners and pay 2 or 3 cents less than me on losers you will kick my ass. Thats simple math, everything else is nonsense and doesnt mean anything.
There is no 'right side wrong result stupidity'. A winner is a winner and a loser is a loser. What I WOULD worry about though is if you got a winner at +130, but a lot of other guys got +140 or more. Most definitely if +160 were available for quite a while. all that show is you had the ability to follow everyone else and it just happened to be right that time.
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