Trading halted for 15 minutes
- Thread starter railbird
- Start date
mr merlin
EOG Master
I dont know about that, the virus controls the narrative, things will get worse day after day, week after week for another 2 months.
Took less than 6 min for circuit breakers to hit when it went down 7% losing about -1880. Market wasn't trading 20 min in just sitting Rail.
Opened back up 15 min later and we are down 1500 now. I hope we don't hit second set of breakers which triggers after 13% drop from first breaker.
I think we are safe but it's early.
Opened back up 15 min later and we are down 1500 now. I hope we don't hit second set of breakers which triggers after 13% drop from first breaker.
I think we are safe but it's early.
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FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
I want to align myself with the people winning today. These are the days where the rich become RICH.
WildBill
2
Im not buying at the moment but anyone who sells now will probably regret it unless they are trading heavily
KevinStott11
EOG Veteran
"near term bottom"
"2 months"
The NYSE will be lucky not to go under 20,000 in the next 2 weeks.
This is serious.. Slow-moving 9/11.
Two months would be amazing. This will be here for awhile.
How DO/WOULD we know who has it if nobody is being tested?
One has to ask a Doctor and then go to a Hospital to get tested. Four ships offshore in US with infected?
Wrong time to look at NYSE-NASDAQ as Sports Betting. Recession looming. Math.
I am no longer going to bet on sports at casinos until it's over. Will just write about.
Too many unknowns and idiots in charge. Watch the elderly.
Like you said, we will know someone, or a few, who die from COVID-19.
If you get it, hospitals aren't ready AND there is no vaccine.
Or, if your get it and don't know, you are spreading it invisibly.
At least with Flu, they know who has it (as does public) and there are Flu Shots.
Avoid crowds. Avoid Travel.
Drink tons of water. It gets in lungs and water takes it too stomach where hydrochloric acid kills.
And the worst part of iit all, people are finally starting to freak out. Marathon Oil at $4.51 says it all.
80% of trading by machines. Circuit--breaker times. Free Fear everywhere.
"2 months"
The NYSE will be lucky not to go under 20,000 in the next 2 weeks.
This is serious.. Slow-moving 9/11.
Two months would be amazing. This will be here for awhile.
How DO/WOULD we know who has it if nobody is being tested?
One has to ask a Doctor and then go to a Hospital to get tested. Four ships offshore in US with infected?
Wrong time to look at NYSE-NASDAQ as Sports Betting. Recession looming. Math.
I am no longer going to bet on sports at casinos until it's over. Will just write about.
Too many unknowns and idiots in charge. Watch the elderly.
Like you said, we will know someone, or a few, who die from COVID-19.
If you get it, hospitals aren't ready AND there is no vaccine.
Or, if your get it and don't know, you are spreading it invisibly.
At least with Flu, they know who has it (as does public) and there are Flu Shots.
Avoid crowds. Avoid Travel.
Drink tons of water. It gets in lungs and water takes it too stomach where hydrochloric acid kills.
And the worst part of iit all, people are finally starting to freak out. Marathon Oil at $4.51 says it all.
80% of trading by machines. Circuit--breaker times. Free Fear everywhere.
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jimmythegreek
The opening odds start here
Officially the Dow was down as high as 2,030 points and the S&P reached a decline of 7% just 4 minutes in. Trading resumed at 9:49 AM EST and the Dow rallied at it's 'peak' of -1306. Down about 1550 now and a second set of circuit breakers is highly unlikely although not out of the question given the last 2 Fridays where we saw 600 point rallies in the final hour of each trading day.
KevinStott11
EOG Veteran
Craziest start ever. 30% is scary. Silver, Gold, Bitcoin and everything down but Fear Index. Things may bottom out in March. There will be more value everywhere than maybe anytime in history, but people will be walking on hot coals with their trading.
I wory about people freaking out more when ALL the ships come in and all real numbers of infected are revealed. People will sell again. There are 40 Nevadans on that ship off Oakland. The concept of people having this and the nasty Death rate for those 60 and older will only keep going. This cannot be waved away with a magic wand. We know nothing. Hospitals aren't ready despite what they say and the way the test—the workers in ORE nursing home didn't get tested—is so hard to get means people without Doctors or in the Health pipeline will have no way to go to Doctor(s), infecting (and killing) others. Pandemics don't care what we think or that the NYSE has gone down 12 of 14 days.
Better Safe than Sorry with your Money and your Health. If Silver gets under $15/oz, may be a safe haven. Time to think modern. Have never seen the NYSE up or down 2,000, let alone in a fucking second.
I wory about people freaking out more when ALL the ships come in and all real numbers of infected are revealed. People will sell again. There are 40 Nevadans on that ship off Oakland. The concept of people having this and the nasty Death rate for those 60 and older will only keep going. This cannot be waved away with a magic wand. We know nothing. Hospitals aren't ready despite what they say and the way the test—the workers in ORE nursing home didn't get tested—is so hard to get means people without Doctors or in the Health pipeline will have no way to go to Doctor(s), infecting (and killing) others. Pandemics don't care what we think or that the NYSE has gone down 12 of 14 days.
Better Safe than Sorry with your Money and your Health. If Silver gets under $15/oz, may be a safe haven. Time to think modern. Have never seen the NYSE up or down 2,000, let alone in a fucking second.
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Today is about oil, for the most part. So in a game of chicken between the Saudis and Putin, who blinks first? Logically I would say Putin, as the Saudis have more wealth. But we are talking about a giant egomaniac in Putin. He may not want to be perceived as the loser in a game of chicken.
WildBill
2
I think Putin is just trying to break OPEC in general. With the US and some other countries becoming major players he wants to sow discord in OPEC members and eventually bring them together on his terms. Very long game strategy but it might be in his mind the potential legacy he leaves behind.
It is getting tempting to put some money to work but I'm trying to fight that urge. I remember going back into the market in 2002 and was about a year too early. It could've been worse as many tried to get back in around 2001. Having said that, other than March of 2009, we haven't seen many V bottoms. We don't know what the floor is. One likely will get another chance to buy almost any stock again at its price today, if not significantly lower. But there could be a case to be made for a V bottom in this current slide. Putin backs down and we likely have a floor in oil; we've already seen the Corona virus has peaked awhile back in China. At some point it will peak here. I suspect within a week we will have much more reliable numbers as more testing kits are available.
A year from now, none of this is likely to be relevant. But how long will it take for the market to get over it?
A year from now, none of this is likely to be relevant. But how long will it take for the market to get over it?
mr merlin
EOG Master
I pulled out about 40% in late feb, obviously i wish I did more, the trick is getting back in at the right time.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
If we listened to you 2 years ago, we would all be dead by now. You want all of these illegals with fleas and disease in the country. Let’s make all states like California.
So a few months ago the wife says I am taking 30 day sabbatical in March. I say great. I let everything expire that hadn't and got into cash and planned on overhauling our positions and just a basic examination of where we were. I thought the Market was to high at 28/29 k
Then the Pandemic shit hits at start of month and I am sitting FULLY in cash by pure luck. Whole retirement funds in cash no exposure to market when it started crashing.
Not a bad spot but never been thru a pandemic scare. A tad frozen here on what to do next but at least got into cash.
Like Valuist I just wonder when and where to get back in. Oil is not my specialty but will watch after reading his comments. I am just not aware of geopolitical events as fast as he is (say Putin and all i can think of is that stupid shirtless pic) . Sometimes you get lucky and I did.
Let's hope for the best.
Then the Pandemic shit hits at start of month and I am sitting FULLY in cash by pure luck. Whole retirement funds in cash no exposure to market when it started crashing.
Not a bad spot but never been thru a pandemic scare. A tad frozen here on what to do next but at least got into cash.
Like Valuist I just wonder when and where to get back in. Oil is not my specialty but will watch after reading his comments. I am just not aware of geopolitical events as fast as he is (say Putin and all i can think of is that stupid shirtless pic) . Sometimes you get lucky and I did.
Let's hope for the best.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
You’re in a nice spot Stevo.
WildBill
2
No one times the market well. All you can do is make sure certain steps happen. First thing is you need a blowout down day where many start capitulation selling everything for fear of how much worse it could get. Feels like today but probably best if it's confirmed with close being at or near day's low. That low will get tested so best to wait out some volatility, probably a week or two. If the market doesn't tank again like today then the institutional money will start wading in. You could buy then or wait until two consecutive up days with decent volume happen. That's the last confirmation you need. You won't catch the absolute bottom, but you will get value.
Simple rules following repeating patterns that work about 90-95% of the time.
Simple rules following repeating patterns that work about 90-95% of the time.
Bigrunner
EOG Master
And this is the same evil rhetoric your unfit President used that led to 11 killed in a pro immigrant, pro refugee synagogue. It also led to 20 killed at a southern border Wall Mart. The Right Wing is known to have beautiful so called Americans.
MAGA!!
Simple rules following repeating patterns that work about 90-95% of the time.
That's pretty much been my philosophy since learning ropes Bill. I have been at this since we all stood up at our desks when Dow hit 1000. LMAO
Smartest thing I ever did was sell at 10% off top of Tech crash. Why? The week I got a license the market crashed big. So bubbles were not new to me.
That's pretty much been my philosophy since learning ropes Bill. I have been at this since we all stood up at our desks when Dow hit 1000. LMAO
Smartest thing I ever did was sell at 10% off top of Tech crash. Why? The week I got a license the market crashed big. So bubbles were not new to me.
I would say its pure luck or variance to call a market top or bottom. Don't try to get the absolute bottom here. Wait for it to bottom and there will likely be a period of consolidation before it moves to an uptrend. Never buy for fear of missing out. There's always another stock somewhere. What we want is the meat of the bone for prolonged uptrends and downtrends, if one is selling short.
WildBill
2
As tempting as some of these yields seem, I'd agree to stay clear of this area indefinitely. Some real shaking out to do here, the little guys who leveraged up are going to bust and we'll have to see what it does for the cost of capital for all the others who don't bust. World is going to be awash with petroleum products 5-10 years from now, once this crisis passes there is a very short window to take advantage of before the industry will be facing a real crisis.
Good stuff Valuist. Fully admit the tech bubble could of gone up another 20% it was that crazy. I was just very leery and when I couldn't sleep anymore wondering about tomorrow I sold. That's what I was taught.
Fortunately for me I can park the money in totally safe crappy paying stuff and still make money. I am a trader though and like you I have to fight the urge. Right now it's easy as I have never dealt with pandemic stuff. I'm a very prudent investor as opposed to the chasing crappy gambler that's in me. So I'm in no rush.
Fortunately for me I can park the money in totally safe crappy paying stuff and still make money. I am a trader though and like you I have to fight the urge. Right now it's easy as I have never dealt with pandemic stuff. I'm a very prudent investor as opposed to the chasing crappy gambler that's in me. So I'm in no rush.
WildBill
2
If you are a trader then those last few weeks and months of a bubble are when you make insane cash though. But yeah, very much have to keep perspective and remember when you are an investor versus a trader. I have dealt with a lot of institutional investors over the years, doing everything from being an oil market analyst to an adviser to huge hedge funds, and the one thing I have learned is that while everyone mentally thinks they can call turns in the market most of the time, the reality is no one can. Can just adjust your risk/reward by rebalancing at good points in time, but it never makes sense to regret missing some of the potential profit you could have made buying or selling at a different time and by all means, don't ever go all in on a call.
If you are a trader then those last few weeks and months of a bubble are when you make insane cash though
It was very exciting Bill. I can guarantee you though. When I hit the final sell I made and looked at cash balance I just sat back in relief. I did not care in the slightest it went up another 10%. Never felt I made a mistake and just smirked knowing history will repeat like you mentioned. Looking at account value not the same as looking at cash available.
It was very exciting Bill. I can guarantee you though. When I hit the final sell I made and looked at cash balance I just sat back in relief. I did not care in the slightest it went up another 10%. Never felt I made a mistake and just smirked knowing history will repeat like you mentioned. Looking at account value not the same as looking at cash available.
WildBill
2
I think REITs look really attractive, but as the saying goes can't try to catch a falling knife, going to give it some time but that's where I'm going to focus putting money to work. Other than maybe the malls/retail, I don't see how they are longer-term negatively impacted by the virus and its follow on. Much lower interest rates now and the safe haven view of the US should play out very well. If this stock rout gets worse, the mom and pop investor will gravitate towards real estate again, just like they did post tech bubble and 9/11.
I see a Netflix down $18 or so today. If a company should benefit from any sort of quarantine at all, self imposed or not, I would think it would be Netflix.
I heard some really stupid advice just now. "Go out and buy Peloton because everyone is afraid to go to the gym". Yes, lets pay $55 A MONTH for a stationary bike. First off, not every single individual is going to catch this virus. And people who go to gyms tend to be in better shape and better overall health. So let's not work out and potentially weaken our bodies with virus germs in the area. Really, really dumb thinking.
WildBill
2
Yeah the Peloton types are the first things to go if the economy tightens. People can buy a crappy exercise bike for $200, so they will think just use this 4 months and I'm ahead. Or if they have already jumped in, Peloton will lose customers paying the subscription fee and they will just ride the bike without the instructors as long as they already own the bike. Netflix isn't at a big risk for lost revenue, but I think their drop reflects just general deflation of the bubble around the FANG stocks. Netflix faces some real pressures from media company competitors. I'd hate to be invested there and see 10-20% of my stock value go away from another one of these "Show XXX is going to be taken down a year from now" announcements that seem insane, but really do affect the stock's price.
jimmythegreek
The opening odds start here
Tuesday futures up 613 and climbing, but given today's severe damage, if makes me laugh that CNBC and other market programming calls this a 'market rally'. These are monthly gains and losses taking place in a day. The trading being as active as it is is probably keeping the experts from predicting an immediate recession nationally, but the volatility is far from over making one wonder not if but how premature the expectations are going forward.