Nine-race card in Cypress, California.
First post is 12:30 p.m. PT.
Pick Six sequence comprises races four through nine.
First post is 12:30 p.m. PT.
Pick Six sequence comprises races four through nine.
Traditional Pick 6 carryover of $145,000+ this Thursday at Los Alamitos
- Thread starter John Kelly
- Start date
I'll give it a go.
My new horse racing strategy: Only place bets I would not want to book.
Think potential six-figure scores.
Think potential six-figure scores.
Simple formula for estimating pools on big carryover days is to multiply the carryover by a factor of five.
Pool usually swells to swallow the added money, thus making the attractive wager a vig-free opportunity.
Pool usually swells to swallow the added money, thus making the attractive wager a vig-free opportunity.
railbird
EOG Master
how many pick 6 syndicates are there?
Hmmm...
HEIM was part of a Pick 6 syndicate at one time.
I sometimes fear insider money in the Pick 6 pools, especially in races loaded with first-time starters.
If you're not on the inside...
Final race of the Thursday card goes in less than 10 minutes.
Three horses are covered in the Pick 6: #2 Squared Shady, #4 Sircat Nelly and #7 Coco's Joy.
All other horses will produce a Pick 6 carryover of $423,000-plus heading into Friday's card.
Three horses are covered in the Pick 6: #2 Squared Shady, #4 Sircat Nelly and #7 Coco's Joy.
All other horses will produce a Pick 6 carryover of $423,000-plus heading into Friday's card.
I wonder if someone from trainer John Sadler's inner circle has one or both of the tickets alive to #4 Sircat Nelly?
Single tickets on the two logical horses.
Two tickets are alive to the third choice.
Two tickets are alive to the third choice.
Of course, the Pick 6 pool can be quirky, at times.
#1 Swift Nonni, a first-time starter, won the final race at odds of 15/1.
Never looked like a loser.
Pick 6 carryover of $423,000-plus set for Friday's card.
Expect about $2 million in the Pick 6 pool tomorrow at Los Alamitos.
Never looked like a loser.
Pick 6 carryover of $423,000-plus set for Friday's card.
Expect about $2 million in the Pick 6 pool tomorrow at Los Alamitos.
Winning combination was 2 / 2 / 9 / 4 / 1 / 10.
$2 payout worth $228,816.40.
$2 payout worth $228,816.40.
blueline
EOG Master
a nugget from 7 years of data :
The "true" return for a typical horse bettor (-26%) is far lower than the listed takeout (-17%) because the average race winner pays much less than its actual probability of winning. Most win contenders are underlays with odds too low to net a profit per their chances. During the 7 year span above, the mean winner returned $11.50 or about 9/2 odds. That is nowhere near enough payback to net a -17% return with avg. field size of 7.7. The average horse bettor sucks up this big loss. The game has become very tough to beat because high-volume rebate players are crashing the odds on the most likely winners with big wagers.
The "true" return for a typical horse bettor (-26%) is far lower than the listed takeout (-17%) because the average race winner pays much less than its actual probability of winning. Most win contenders are underlays with odds too low to net a profit per their chances. During the 7 year span above, the mean winner returned $11.50 or about 9/2 odds. That is nowhere near enough payback to net a -17% return with avg. field size of 7.7. The average horse bettor sucks up this big loss. The game has become very tough to beat because high-volume rebate players are crashing the odds on the most likely winners with big wagers.
Good nugget, Blue.
The racetracks sold out the $2 foot soldiers years ago when it allowed and eventually promoted rebates/discounts to high-volume players.
Hard to beat the competition when you're laying more than -140 and they're laying less than -120.
Pari-mutuel wagering becomes a racket, not a market, when the participants are playing at different rates.
In time, the everyday recreational players will disappear with the realization they have little or no chance to stay in the game, let alone beat it.
The racetracks sold out the $2 foot soldiers years ago when it allowed and eventually promoted rebates/discounts to high-volume players.
Hard to beat the competition when you're laying more than -140 and they're laying less than -120.
Pari-mutuel wagering becomes a racket, not a market, when the participants are playing at different rates.
In time, the everyday recreational players will disappear with the realization they have little or no chance to stay in the game, let alone beat it.
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Better than losing.
And you had a chance at a big score.
And you had a chance at a big score.