Turkey Day Week: NFL Picks and Discussion

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
#1
472 Pittsburgh +2


I don't know if it's just me, but it seems like the Browns have had odd lines on their games practically every week. The market can't decide how good they really are. I don't buy into the revenge angle, but Pittsburgh has been good at home, and it's hard to imagine them not being focused. Worth a small bet.

470 Denver +3 (-120)
Not sure why the Chargers are capable of being a road favorite. I know the whole "warm weather team playing on the road in December" idea is factored into the line, and the Chargers have never done well in Denver in my lifetime. Not sure either team has much to play for, so I'll be happy to take the points.

Leans:
Lions +3 (-115)
I don't trust the Bears on the road

Falcons +7 (-120)
The last game against the Saints showed the Falcons match up well against the Saints, and Ryan didn't have much trouble finding the holes in their defense. This might be the last game where the Falcons try before going into tank mode.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#2
No way am I laying points with the Bears on the road. Jobs are on the line in Detroit, possible coaching changes after the game with a loss to the Bears. The one problem is Driscoll was banged up (hamstring) in the Washington game. I think he plays, but it’s something to watch.

I’m on the opposite side of Cleveland-Pitt. Pitt is definitely fading, don’t trust them in a near pk vs the surging Browns. Pitt could be a popular teaser side.

Balt -5.5 all day for me. Definitely the square side, but I’m not standing in front of that train right now, even with SF. I think the SF offense is a notch below Balt and Balt doesn’t let up on D. I can see this closing a point higher.

Interesting that Dalton is the starter for Cinn this week. Here is a winnable game, could get a good effort from the offense. Cinn + points and ML.
 

Sol Diablo

House of Heat
#3
472 Pittsburgh +2

I don't know if it's just me, but it seems like the Browns have had odd lines on their games practically every week. The market can't decide how good they really are. I don't buy into the revenge angle, but Pittsburgh has been good at home, and it's hard to imagine them not being focused. Worth a small bet.
If Rudolph is going to start at QB then I won't be able to do it. Hopefully Tomlin sticks with Hodges. If he does I'll play Pitt. He seemed to give the team a little spark last week.

Keep riding with that.
 

kane

EOG master
#4
I'm with you on the Steelers Benny, and I'm hoping they start Hodges over Rudolph, it looks like Conner is out again but Snell came back last week and looked good, they could also use a healthy Juju, I'm seeing him as questionable. I saw an interesting quote about the Browns, " they're a team of characters, but lacking character", which is something the Steelers have. I like taking a HD with the better defense and I think they find a way to win an ugly game. Another game that jumped out to me was the Bengals, I know, I know, they're the Bengals, but they get Dalton back at QB, and no he isn't great, but at least he's somewhat competent and he's much better than Finley, as soon as I saw Dalton named the starter I took the 4. For as bad as they are, the Bengals have managed to be competitive in most of their losses, they've lost games by 1,3,4, 6 twice, and 7. The Jets have won three straight, but two of those wins have come against the Giants and Redskins, the Bengals don't want to go winless, and other than a game against Miami, this is their best shot at getting a win, so I expect a max effort out of them. Other than the Steelers and Bengals, there are a couple others I'm looking at and will post later in the week. As far as teasers go, a Titans/Broncos tease looks good.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#7
I got the Bears at pick em Sunday night. Defense travels. Who will play QB for Detroit? Also got Buffalo +7.

Three teams (Cleve, Philly, and Niners) hit the road after three straight home games.
 

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
#9
Also looking at the Cardinals +3, not in the mood for a writeup, but more than likely I'll end up on them
I completely forgot to write about that game.
The Rams look like a ghost of the team they had last year. Short week and travel? Give me the home team.
 
#10
I completely forgot to write about that game.
The Rams look like a ghost of the team they had last year. Short week and travel? Give me the home team.
Arizona has been very competitive this year, and against maybe the two best teams in the league, they lost to the Ravens by 6 and to the Niners by 3 and 10, and that 10 point loss was a game they were winning with about 20 seconds to play. The Cards have been blown out 3 times this year, other tan those three games every other one has been competitive, don't see any reason why this week shouldn't be competitive as well. Also,not sure what the Rams mindset is right now coming off that embarrassment last night.
 
#13
NFL Week 14 Advanced Lines
Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
------------------------November 26, 2019


Thursday, December 5, 2019
Cowboys -3 -120 BEARS

Sunday, December 8, 2019
Ravens -7 BILLS
PACKERS -14½ Redskins
TEXANS -7½ Broncos
SAINTS -3 49ers
BROWNS -10½ Bengals
FALCONS -1 Panthers
VIKINGS-Lions No Line
JETS -7½ Dolphins
BUCCANEERS -1 Colts
Chargers -1 JAGUARS
PATRIOTS -4 Chiefs
CARDINALS PK Steelers
RAIDERS PK Titans
Seahawks -3 -120 RAMS


Monday, December 9, 2019
EAGLES -8 Giants
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#15
Bills +7 just smells as bad as can be

Looks too easy which means it isn't. I soooooooo wanna play the Bills but I know if I do the final will be something like 21-10 Cowgirls so I am having nothing to do with it
 
#16
Even though I want to take the Lions, I don't trust Driskell with a bad hammy or their third stringer Blough going up against the Bears D. I saw the other day that since 2004 favorites on Thanksgiving are something like 31-10 ATS, don't know if that stat is exact, but it's close, either way I'm not playing anything. My only play will be to open a tease with the Cowboys, the Bills aren't as good as their record, the fact that a 6-5 team is favored by a TD over an 8-3 team tells you as such. This game is more important to Dallas and I expect a max effort from them, and even though the Bills have a very good D, their weakness is stopping the run, they're 20th in yards per attempt, Zeke should have a good day, and all I need is for them to just win the game, don't know if they cover or not, but I think they'll win.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#18
Bills +7 just smells as bad as can be

Looks too easy which means it isn't. I soooooooo wanna play the Bills but I know if I do the final will be something like 21-10 Cowgirls so I am having nothing to do with it
Thought the same thing Winky. I may just open tease Dallas -1. Buffalo has a very good pass D, and Dallas needs to get Elliott back on track. This may be the game that happens.
 
#20
Love the thread. A couple of thoughts come to mind from the first couple of posters instead of Pitt and denver +2 or 2.5 I'd go wong if a -110 out and if not I'd shop both moneylines. Wongs are still hitting at a high rate this season per usual but outs for them are getting harder and harder to find or keep.

Had to check the line 3 times but someone explain to me why NYJ ML isnt a viable option? Cincy lost their players super bowl last week no? Now upper management will insist on tank like no other correct?
Also feel 6 is a a bit out of pocket for that talent of SF defense. What am I missing there? Feels like balt on short week, too much respect for beating a dead rams team.
Any help will be appreciated. Dont bet much NFL.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#21
Love the thread. A couple of thoughts come to mind from the first couple of posters instead of Pitt and denver +2 or 2.5 I'd go wong if a -110 out and if not I'd shop both moneylines. Wongs are still hitting at a high rate this season per usual but outs for them are getting harder and harder to find or keep.

Had to check the line 3 times but someone explain to me why NYJ ML isnt a viable option? Cincy lost their players super bowl last week no? Now upper management will insist on tank like no other correct?
Also feel 6 is a a bit out of pocket for that talent of SF defense. What am I missing there? Feels like balt on short week, too much respect for beating a dead rams team.
Any help will be appreciated. Dont bet much NFL.
If Cinn is in full tank mode, why did they go back to Dalton this week? I would think you’ll get max effort from Cinn until they win. I wanted to take the Jets until Dalton was named the starter.
 
#22
I got the Bears at pick em Sunday night. Defense travels. Who will play QB for Detroit? Also got Buffalo +7.

Three teams (Cleve, Philly, and Niners) hit the road after three straight home games.
Philly goes to Miami....after facing the Pats and Seahawks, the Eagles will have their way....hopefully
 
#23
Love the thread. A couple of thoughts come to mind from the first couple of posters instead of Pitt and denver +2 or 2.5 I'd go wong if a -110 out and if not I'd shop both moneylines. Wongs are still hitting at a high rate this season per usual but outs for them are getting harder and harder to find or keep.

Had to check the line 3 times but someone explain to me why NYJ ML isnt a viable option? Cincy lost their players super bowl last week no? Now upper management will insist on tank like no other correct?
Also feel 6 is a a bit out of pocket for that talent of SF defense. What am I missing there? Feels like balt on short week, too much respect for beating a dead rams team.
Any help will be appreciated. Dont bet much NFL.
Like FW pointed out, Dalton is getting the start this week, I have no idea why the Bengals are doing this since Finley clearly isn't NFL ready, he's looked like the proverbial deer in headlights, and would "help" them have the worst record and the first pick in the draft, and no one will confuse Dalton with a good QB, but the guy is competent, and for as bad as the Bengals are, they have been competitive in a bunch of games this year, and the players don't want the embarrassment of a winless season, so I expect them to play hard. As far as the Ravens go, the lookahead line was 4.5 so the blowout of the Rams moved it to 6, but it wasn't just the Rams game, they've been blowing out everyone they've faced recently, including some good teams. They beat Houston by 34, NE by 17, and Seattle by 14, all in the past 5 weeks, I personally have no opinion on the game, but as I look at the screen I see everyone using 5.5, so someone thought 6 was too high and played the Niners. I understand your thinking behind taking the Steelers on the ML rather than the points, but I wonder if it's still good since the extra point was moved back, nowadays there are many more missed extra points than there used to be, I have no data on this but I would think these days there are more 1 and 2 point victories solely based off the more missed extra points, plus sometimes teams are more willing to go for 2 rather than kicking the extra point, which also has an effect on the scoring.
 
#24
If Cinn is in full tank mode, why did they go back to Dalton this week? I would think you’ll get max effort from Cinn until they win. I wanted to take the Jets until Dalton was named the starter.
Fans down here would rather have Rosen start instead of Fitz, Rosen would give them a worse chance of winning, Fitz is competent enough to win a few games despite the lack of talent around him.
 
#27
Love the thread. A couple of thoughts come to mind from the first couple of posters instead of Pitt and denver +2 or 2.5 I'd go wong if a -110 out and if not I'd shop both moneylines. Wongs are still hitting at a high rate this season per usual but outs for them are getting harder and harder to find or keep.

Had to check the line 3 times but someone explain to me why NYJ ML isnt a viable option? Cincy lost their players super bowl last week no? Now upper management will insist on tank like no other correct?
Also feel 6 is a a bit out of pocket for that talent of SF defense. What am I missing there? Feels like balt on short week, too much respect for beating a dead rams team.
Any help will be appreciated. Dont bet much NFL.
I think the Jets on the M/L is a good idea with the Bengals 0-11 and Sam Darnold showing progress and gaining confidence. The line speaks much. Cincy would have probably been favored by 4-6 in this spot before NFL season kicked off.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#29
Fans down here would rather have Rosen start instead of Fitz, Rosen would give them a worse chance of winning, Fitz is competent enough to win a few games despite the lack of talent around him.
Miami played decent last week in Cleveland. I think they have a punchers chance vs Philly this weekZ. You’ve seen many northern teams go to Florida in nov and dec and suck it up. It is a pretty dysfunctional eagles team.

Kane - I think Miami should play Rosen also - but to build around him and not to tank. I think tanking just sends the wrong organizational message. Two good drafts and they are right back in the game.
 
#31
Miami played decent last week in Cleveland. I think they have a punchers chance vs Philly this weekZ. You’ve seen many northern teams go to Florida in nov and dec and suck it up. It is a pretty dysfunctional eagles team.

Kane - I think Miami should play Rosen also - but to build around him and not to tank. I think tanking just sends the wrong organizational message. Two good drafts and they are right back in the game.
The fact that they're not playing Rosen probably means they don't feel he's the long term answer, otherwise it makes no sense for him to not be starting. As far as tanking goes, this franchise desperately needs a QB, everyone knows the problem they've had at that position since Marino, and the higher your pick, the better chance of landing a franchise QB, it's as simple as that. I agree tanking sends the wrong message, but it is what it is. The Fins also have a lot of picks, so if they're not in position to take the QB they want, they could always trade up. If they aren't able to get the QB they want in the next draft, I hope they end up with Young from OSU, that kid's a fucking beast and probably the best player in the draft
 
#32
Miami played decent last week in Cleveland. I think they have a punchers chance vs Philly this weekZ. You’ve seen many northern teams go to Florida in nov and dec and suck it up. It is a pretty dysfunctional eagles team.

Kane - I think Miami should play Rosen also - but to build around him and not to tank. I think tanking just sends the wrong organizational message. Two good drafts and they are right back in the game.
Eagles defense have gotten to full strength....don’t think Miami moves the ball against them...

The Eagles offense is still without its full arsenal....and now Wentz and Ertz are now banged up...will be all in to cover the spread.....

leaning to the under....
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#35
Eagles defense have gotten to full strength....don’t think Miami moves the ball against them...

The Eagles offense is still without its full arsenal....and now Wentz and Ertz are now banged up...will be all in to cover the spread.....

leaning to the under....
Dallas Goedert is a very capable replacement for Ertz, he could have a big game.
 
#36
Philly still needs those two tight end sets with all their receivers out....Dallas still needs to learn to hold onto the ball...he has had a few bad turnovers the past few games...
 
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