Week 1 MLB action

#1
For Sunday 4/5

Not extremely heppy with this line. Thought I might do better but it hast budged but a little the wrong way. Taking the first 5 inn line. Lowe is in great form and just getting the bull pen out of the equation may me the safest in my opinion.

1031 - Atlanta +120 (1st 5 inns)

Good luck. :pop:
 
#3
Re: Week 1 MLB action

Thanks Firehorn, good luck to you as well.

1-0 .....Nice to start off with a win.
Gonna run a new thread each week starting each Monday. Goal is to finnish in the black each week.

Goin a little nuts on Opening Day. Not really something I planned on doing and cards like this will be rare for me. Odds are slim I win all of these but Im taking a spray a lot of bullets at the target approach and hope most of them draw blood. I feel these all have a very good chance though. All 1 unit plays except for the 2 tm side/total 1/2 unit play. All plays on listed pitchers only. No play if they dont start.

901 - NYM RL(-105)

907 - Pittsburgh (+180)

910 - SD (-130) w/ under 6.5 (even) 2 tm parlay. 1/2 unit pays 1.3 units

911 - Cubs (-105)

903 - Colorado (+155)

926 - Anahiem RL(+135)
(I will never call them the LA Angels)

I also bet KC (+125) but apparently the game has been postponed. Maybe Ill play it again on tuesday. Probably even better. I get the feeling veteran Gil Meche can handle the pushback better than Beuhrle.

As mentioned, this is a pretty ambitious card for opening day. Im probably more surprised in myself than anyone. Lots of games left to make it up if I fall on my ass. Good luck everyone.<!-- google_ad_section_end -->
 

gopherbob

EOG Dedicated
#4
Re: Week 1 MLB action

i'm with you on a few, pirates, cubs, and the rained out royals. i agree with you and will probably play them on tues also.
 
#5
Re: Week 1 MLB action

Nice job tonight, Natty! Wish I would've been on that side (instead of Philly -1.5 :+textinb3). I'm don't know a ton about bases, so it should be interesting.
 
#10
Re: Week 1 MLB action

3-3 for Monday. +1.1 units

Really think I should have cashed the Mets RL bet. Three big opportunities thrown away with stupidity or bad luck. Got lucky with Pittsburgh though so its more than a wash.
4-3 and +2.1 units for the week so far.

Tuesday action:

952 - Milwaukee/SF under 7 (even) 1.1 units

957 - Cubs (-119) @ Hou 0.6 units

957 - Cubs RL (+135) @ Hou 0.4 units

959 - Pittsburgh (+142) @ STL 1 unit

971 - 2 tm parlay : KC (+119) @ CWS w/ over 7.5 (-115) 0.5 units (pays 2.05 units)

-Lincecum always dominant and looks to be in form. Suppan seems to be in good shape too but it usually doesnt matter with SFs lack of offense.

- Dempster looking good in spring and basically more reliable than Wandy. If the Cubs can get four off Oswalt (who actually pitched pretty good) than they might double that number on Wandy. Astros look a little ragged. Cubs very sharp in first game. Split this one up with the small fav price so I dont get totally screwed if the Cubs win by one. Just a little insurance. Think they should run away with this one though.

- Pirates got a little lucky but STL dont appear to be on fire with the bats right now either. I like Snell a lot when hes on his game and all indications are pointing that he is. Snell doesnt have to rely on defense as much as Maholm which is always a plus with the pirates D. Grabow and Capps combo will still be available should the game be winnable and weve had a small sample of LaRussas stable already.

-Hoping KC can continue with the offensive potential they showed at times last year and especially in thier spring games. Both pitchers might be a little suspect at this point but I trust the vet Meche a lot more than the enigmatic Buehrle. Kind of cool out there in Chi town but that accounts for the low total. Think these starters will give at least a couple runs each and hoping we get a little more off Buehrle and the bullpen.

Good luck everyone.
 
#16
Re: Week 1 MLB action

Thanks guys. Took a couple of the early games on the chin. Hopefully things perk up.

Adding:

956 - Fla RL (+140) vs Washington 1unit
 
#17
Re: Week 1 MLB action

Ugly Tuesday.... 1-5 (-2.16 units). No matter. :pop:

Now 5-8 and (-0.06 units) for week 1.

Wedensday action:

902 - Fla RL (+135) vs Washington

903 - Atlanta (even) @ Philly

920 - Baltimore (+161) vs NYY

914 - SD (+159) vs LAD

Sorry I dont have the time to elaborate on the analysis. I really could go on and on about why I like this card. Just a little quick hit on these tonight.

Fla bats red hot. Washington cant pack for charter to Atlanta fast enough. They may just leave the old bats behind and hit the Dicks Sporting Goods store for some wood colored aluminum bats when they get there.

PRESSURE is building in Philly. Atlanta feeling loosey goosey. Divisional rival Braves are about to get a three game jump on the hung over World Series champs. Betting against home teams to get swept can be profitable and this scenario fits the bill better than most.

Orioles are a big home underdog to a divisional rival. An experienced professional from Japan makes his MLB debut against a pitcher the O's should at least know what to expect from.

Padres also a big home dog to thier hated divisional rival Dodgers. They too will debut an unknown rookie. He is, however, a little more wet behind the ears.

Good luck everybody.
 
#18
Re: Week 1 MLB action

Off to a good start, had to sweat the Fla RL though.:thumbsup

Adding:
910 - Houston (+118) vs Cubs

Astros have a chance to redeem thier opening day loss with a series win. Home dog to a divisional rival angle with the home team trying to win the rubber game seems like it could be a nice percentage play. Moehler is not a pitcher I like to back but he is surviving on life support and has some decent spring numbers, Hopefully he will start the year with some new wrinkle in his repertoire or spark in his mechanics to help prolong the borrowed time he has acquired. This is more of a fade on Lilly who spent half the spring in the WBC. Dont like the setup and what it does to starting pitchers preparation regimine for the regular season. I doubt he is in the most desirable form at this point and I have a hunch that routine and regularity are a big part of Lillys success when he has it.
 
#19
Re: Week 1 MLB action

Atlanta bullpen blows 6 run lead to foul up a profitable day. 2348ji23e

2-3 today to net -0.04 units
7-11 for the week/ net -0.10 units

Thursday action:

963 - TB (+145) @ Boston (1unit)

970 - Texas (-115) vs Cleveland (0.6 units)

970 - Texas RL (+170) vs Cleveland (0.4 units)

958 - Milwaukee/SF under 8 (-120) (1.1 units)

No writes today but good luck everyone.
 
#20
Re: Week 1 MLB action

3-0-1 for Thursday netting +2.68 units
10-11-1 for the week for a net profit of +2.58 units

Friday action:

917 - Texas (+145) @ Detroit (1 unit) Benson vs Galaraga

921 - NYY RL (even) @ KC (1 unit) Pettitte vs Ponson

908 - Fla (+115) vs NYM (1 unit) Sanchez vs Maine

915 - SF (-110) @ SD (1.1 units) Zito vs Hill

Also leaning real hard at Wash/Atlanta under (1st five inning line). It wont be up at my book till morning, so Ive got time to think about it. Lowe looks pretty good right now and Martis making his debut on the road with very nice spring numbers and lots of potential. Dont want to trust either bullpen at this point. Usually try to take the dog with a pitching debut but its real hard to bet the Nats or to go against the Braves, especially with Lowe on the mound.

Sorry about not writing up the games very much. Spend a lot of time keeping up on charts for Teams, Pitchers and bullpens. I like to do a lot of it manually, one box score at a time so I can get a better intuitive feel for the teams and pitchers. Tedious work, so I have little time to spend writing much analysis. I will bring it with a select game now and then though, when I find some stuff I really want to share.

Good luck everyone.:+excited-
 
#22
Re: Week 1 MLB action

GL today man. Nice start to the year hitting some nice dogs/RL's.

Hopefully the yanks can come through for you today pal.
 
#23
Re: Week 1 MLB action

Thanks Tripp.

Went 2-3 Friday for -0.95 units
Took another kick in the groin last night when Atlanta got the fifth run in the bottom of the fifth inning to screw my under 4.5 under (1st 5 inning play).
My balls are rather swollen in this first week. Still up however, so I wont complain.....too much.
12-14-1 for week 1 ..... +1.63 units

Saturday action:

968 - Tex/Det over 10.5 (-110) (1.1 units)

956 - Fla (-140) vs NYM (1 unit)

957 - Cubs RL (+120) @ Milwaukee

962 - Colorada (-105) vs Philly (1.5 units)

Really liking the Colorado play tonight. Delarosa has really found a comfort zone with the Rockies last year and is largely an under the radar quality arm so far this year (in my opinion) . Fade mode in effect right now for Myers. Rockies at home with a three game win streak is no fluky thing when they are slugging over .500 so far. Philly has slugged a sluggish .336 thus far. Virtually any offense they mustered in yesterdays loss was the result of one player, Jason Werth.

Good luck everyone.
 
#24
Re: Week 1 MLB action

Adding:

980 - KC (+205) vs NYY ( 1 unit)

Cant resist the huge home dog in this situation. It is my opinion that CC Sabathia is in for one of the most difficult months of his carreer. Ridden hard and put away wet last season, he will not be right for a while, and if the Yankees keep pushing (and he will push himself too) to get emmediate returns on thier investment, they may just have to endure more than a handful of dissapointing starts. Injuries (in the physical and/or mental) happen to human beings when overworked, and CC is human no matter how many zeros are on his paycheck.

KCs offense still not looking like it did in Spring, but yesturday was the first day in thier revamped digs and they faced a rejuvenated Andy Pettitte. I think that if he stays healthy, Andy will have an above average year. Yesturdays performance was a small preview of what he might bring a majority of the time. Horacio Ramirez is certainly a crap shoot but the Yankees bats are still not all that impressive. The fact that they couldnt bust the game open yesturday, against Ponson, is not a sign that they are about to begin a slugging streak in the emmediate future.

All speculation on my part, thats for sure. But this is the main reasons I think +205 is worthy of taking the risk.
 
#25
Re: Week 1 MLB action

0-5 for Saturday / -5.6 units Shit happens.... (I guess). Sorry folks.

12-19-1 for week 1 / -3.97 units

Sunday action:

919 - Toronto (+112) @ Cleveland (1 unit)

922 -TB/Balt over 9 (-120) (1.1 units)

926 - NYY/KC under 9 (-120) (1.1 units)

908 - STL (-135) vs Houston (1.5 units)

Lean towards San Diego but not sure if I will pull the trigger yet.
Good luck all. Hope to sweep and get back in black today. :pop:
 
#28
Re: Week 1 MLB action

Thanks KT. If SD hangs on Ill make up a little ground lost yesterday.

Is it just me, or does anyone else think Joe Girardi tends to outthink himself. I hate to judge after the fact, but hes either overeacted or undereacted more than a couple of times in the past. I personally feel he got too cute with his bullpen and blew the game with his LaRussa type bullpen management today. Mostly just bitter they blew my under play though.

Adding:

915 - Cubs RL (+120) @ Milwaukee (2.0 units)

Noticed some interesting numbers when going over tomorrows card. Cubs slugging .496 to Brewers .304 and all on the road. Add that Dempster is looking nearly as good as ever and Suppan hasnt looked good yet. Including Spring training.

Chasing a little with the size of my bet, but the play looks solid.
 
#29
Re: Week 1 MLB action

4-2 for Sunday / +3.46 units.

Thanks Cubbies......needed that one bad. Reed Johnston, you da man.

Week 1 not what I would have liked. But it could have been worse. Hopefully I will be a little more consistant now that I have a small sample of games to derive information and patterns from.

16-21-1 for the first week, netting -0.51 units. Should have finnished in the black, but Joe Girardi decided to get fancy with his relievers. Ive gotten screwed at least once every day this week by shit like that. I am due for a lot of breaks to fall my way. Hopefully they wont be needed much.

This will end this thread for week 1.

Peace.<!-- google_ad_section_end -->
 
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