Week 1 NFL Picks, Leans, Thoughts, and Ideas

ZzyzxRoad

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
I used to love making these threads until the forum turned into a Trollfest.
I probably study sports and sports betting about 1/10th as I used to. When i do bet, i have access to several books with very soft lines, so essentially, they decide who I'm going to bet. My gambling activity consists mostly of blackjack, video poker, and exploiting soft casino promotions. When I'm not doing that, I'm sipping coffee and playing with my dog.

Opening night:
I bet Detroit +7 a few weeks ago because I don't think the line is coming back. This seems like a square dog since I've heard more than one idiot in town say how much they love this bet. It feels like a 27-24 game, and both teams might make deep playoff runs.

Giants +3.5 seems great bit not sure how available it is.
Titans +3.5 is taking advantage of a huge coaching mismatch.
Browns +2.5 is a great teaser leg, especially connecting to Pittsburgh, and I think they should get the outright win.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
I was going to play GB at +3, now it’s down to +1. Always liked dominating dogs, may use them in a teaser.
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
I am a bit hesitate but wash-6 winning by 7 seems doable given how the cardinals let go their leading tackler, a 3rd string qb is starting, and a new hc who was a defensive coordinator now having to make in game decisions vs a wash team that has some new energy about the franchise.

Problem is wash laying this much with a new qb.
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Sf is getting way too much love playing on the road at a Pitt defense that is a different animal with watt healthy, Pickett looking better (yes its preseason) while Purdy isn't 100%.
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
I can see this Detroit Kansas city game ending with a kc 10 pt win.

The hype for the lions isn't something I believe as they are ready to take this leap into the an elite nfc team.

I can see Mahomes ending with 325 yards, 40 yards rushing, and 3 tds passing and the post game comments from people being "Mahomes vs goff.... come on now"
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Sportsrmylife said:
I can see this Detroit Kansas city game ending with a kc 10 pt win.

The hype for the lions isn't something I believe as they are ready to take this leap into the an elite nfc team.

I can see Mahomes ending with 325 yards, 40 yards rushing, and 3 tds passing and the post game comments from people being "Mahomes vs goff.... come on now"
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Goff is 2-0 vs him now.

The KC offense hasn’t been the same since Hill left. None of those b-level FA’s scare a defense.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Sounds like there could be some rain this Sunday. Before someone tells me "rain doesn't matter, only wind matters", they would be wrong. Wind DOES matter, and rain does, when the playing surface is natural grass. Several possible rain games on real grass: Baltimore, Washington, Pittsburgh and Denver. Winds shouldn't be too big of a factor. We could see 10-12 mph in both Chicago and Cleveland but that could change. A few ticks up and we are at 15 mph and FGs could be impacted.
 
P

pro analyser

EOG Dedicated
kane said:
If you look at the numbers, their offense has been just fine without Hill, Mahomes actually has better career numbers without Hill than with him
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Small sample size, only one year without Hill,Mahomes maybe getting even better,thus not missing Hill vs take Hill off Miami and see how they do.
 
ZzyzxRoad

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
As expected, I spent the morning betting every ISI number that was off.
My official plays are:
Buccs+6
Rams +6
Texans +10
Colts +4.5
Cardinals +7.5 (-105)
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
choslamshe said:
JJ the best WR in the history of the game?
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At this point, not even top 2. I would say Jerry Rice and Moss 1-2. And when Rice played, the rules weren't completely tilted toward the offense. 5 years from now, maybe Jefferson will be but its too early at this point to say that.
 
Heim

Heim

EOG Master
I should have known SEA was garbage when Sean King was puffing them up better than a Starbucks espresso.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
I think the jury is out on whether Payton will be successful in Denver. He WAS a very good coach with New Orleans. But he now is a retread, and these old retreads usually don't recapture their past glory. Probably has already banked considerable money, and the time commitment for a successful coach translates better to somebody younger.
 
Heim

Heim

EOG Master
Down 40-0 late and NYG Jones still in the game passing with a OL that can't protect a Brinks truck. 🤦
 
Viejo Dinosaur

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Hurts looked really rusty…don’t know if the weather was to blame but not taking any pre season snaps had to be a concern…will face the Vikings in the Thursday Night game this week..
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
The MSM will tell you Jordan Love is the real deal. The reality is he wasn't accurate, Aaron Jones got him 50 yards on a screen pass, and another 35 yard TD on a ball Love threw about 2 yards. Then, on a broken play, Love has a receiver so wide open, there's no Bear defender within 20 yards. The announcer even said "this is going to be a touchdown". Except Love badly overthrew the tight end, only to be bailed out by a great catch. So that's 3 plays, 125 yards. Take those away and he's 12 of 24 for 120 yards and the guy we saw last year in KC. And Jones, who looked great, became the latest Packer to pull a hamstring. This was more about the Bears being horrible than anything GB did. I thought they looked worse than in any of their 14 losses last year.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
The thing Love did do was look composed out there. I would like to see a little more vs a better defense.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
FairWarning said:
The thing Love did do was look composed out there. I would like to see a little more vs a better defense.
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Yes, complete no show by the Bears and the defensive part was the worst. They spent money on that defense and they just looked unprepared. But I need to see a lot more from Jordan Love to declare everything was like before. Aaron Jones looked so good but pulls a hamstring. I think Green Bay is dressed up, so it will be Atlanta or pass for me.
 
Viejo Dinosaur

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Funny story week one…

My buddy who is a New England fan took the Pats +4 for breakfast and 50 bucks…another one of my Thailand pals wanted to wager with me and knowing that I am a huge Eagle fan gave me a line of Eagles -6…so I naturally took the Pats +6 for fifty bucks and breakfast…wouldn’t you know it, final score 25-20…because we are friends we don’t charge each other the juice…I can’t remember the last time I middled an NFL game..didn’t even watch it because of the 3:30 AM start here…saw them both in the morning and had a great laugh after watching the replay…
 
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Viejo Dinosaur said:
Funny story week one…

My buddy who is a New England fan took the Pats +4 for breakfast and 50 bucks…another one of my Thailand pals wanted to wager with me and knowing that I am a huge Eagle fan gave me a line of Eagles -6…so I naturally took the Pats +6 for fifty bucks and breakfast…wouldn’t you know it, final score 25-20…because we are friends we don’t charge each other the juice…I can’t remember the last time I middled an NFL game..didn’t even watch it because of the 3:30 AM start here…saw them both in the morning and had a great laugh after watching the replay…
Click to expand...


Are the breakfasts concurrent or consecutive 😀
 
ZzyzxRoad

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
kane said:
I hit the most improbable middle of my life on Saturday, I had the Syracuse game Under 55.5 and Over 53, the score at the half was 45-7, the final was 48-7, I couldn't believe the final when I saw it
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I think the multiverse still owes you a few more of those.
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
kane said:
Not if Tua keeps playing like this, of course he can't replicate today's performance every week, but all along it's been accepted Herbert > Tua, but let's see how this season plays out, right now I would probably take Herbert, but that's based more on his size, Tua's size will always mean he's one big hit away from getting hurt, as far as ability I think they're very close. After the way Tua played last year against the Chargers, I think he took today's game personal, for as bad as he was in last year's game, he was equally as good today
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tua is better
 
choslamshe

choslamshe

EOG Master
Jets D going to be fun to watch all year. Studs everywhere.

Bills continue to show their lack of adaptability with "all those playmakers on offense."

So long as Zach Wilson is playing QB, team goes nowhere. They may need to resort to running the ball on all three downs, whether up or down by DD. No hope otherwise.
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
choslamshe said:
Jets D going to be fun to watch all year. Studs everywhere.

Bills continue to show their lack of adaptability with "all those playmakers on offense."

So long as Zach Wilson is playing QB, team goes nowhere. They may need to resort to running the ball on all three downs, whether up or down by DD. No hope otherwise.
Click to expand...
zach is very good, your very wrong as usual
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
good time to take jets afc futures, get a discount, the 2023 jets are the 2000 baltimore bullies, zach is a better version of trent dilfer, plus the refs will kiss that ass since it is hyme town
 
C

cheapseats

EOG Master
railbird said:
good time to take jets afc futures, get a discount, the 2023 jets are the 2000 baltimore bullies, zach is a better version of trent dilfer, plus the refs will kiss that ass since it is hyme town
Click to expand...
You're probably right. I just seem to strike the wrong circumstances and will watch with interest.
 
choslamshe

choslamshe

EOG Master
railbird said:
zach is very good, your very wrong as usual
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1. Zach will never win a game by himself. He needs weapons all over the place, including a defence to keep his team in games, all 17 games of the year.

2. You're, not your

3. Do you think there is anyone on this site that is fatter and uglier than you? Everytime a photo or video of you is leaked on here, what percentage of folks can't help but say to themselves, "Thank God I don't look like him. Thank God I don't have his life." 84.6% - 88.3% would be my guess.

GL
 
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