Week 10 NFL, Picks, Notes, Back in Vegas

ZzyzxRoad

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
Made five bets yesterday.
Bears +3 @ Golden Nugget. Transitive handicapping here. In the Bears last home game, they almost beat the Saints, and that performance is more impressive, considering last week's results. Some teams seem to be getting 0 hfa, and that can't be right.
Giants +4 @ Treasure Island. I just don't think any of the NFC east teams are any good, and after this year, they might change the playoff format to keep the fourth best division winner doesn't automatically get a home game. Giants played the Eagles very tough the first time, and they still have a chance at winning the division.
Panthers +6
I bet this early, even though it's the same everywhere. Can't trust Tampa as a road favorite, especially after their last game, and Carolina is much better than their record.

Also bet, Bills-Cardinals under 56, and Texans-Browns under 54.5. I'm unsure about those, but the totals guy at headquarters swears they're great, so I bet them.
 
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X-Files

X-Files

2
In the NFL Cleveland -148 ML was an early "Pinnacle lean".

In NCAAF there was Ohio -24.5 -108, Florida Int. +310 ML, Iowa over 55.5 -105.
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
X-Files said:
In the NFL Cleveland -148 ML was an early "Pinnacle lean".

In NCAAF there was Ohio -24.5 -108, Florida Int. +310 ML, Iowa over 55.5 -105.
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leans are other morons ideas, not interested, plus sometimes their head fakes anyway
 
X-Files

X-Files

2
Don't forget ""Houston is pure rat shit" lol

and

"A lucky 20-0 fourth quarter allowed the Bears to pull a rabbit out of their ass."

and

"God is great, beer is good, and people are crazy."
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
X-Files said:
Don't forget ""Houston is pure rat shit" lol

and

"A lucky 20-0 fourth quarter allowed the Bears to pull a rabbit out of their ass."

and

"God is great, beer is good, and people are crazy."
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Heck, the Bears can only move the ball on a prevent D these days. Can’t even play then 2H because they don’t score in the 3rd.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
railbird said:
Dolphins are better than the Seahawks imo. Flores a lame coach tho
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Flores has done a great job since coming here, right now he might be in the running for COY, as usual you show your ignorance every time you make a post
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Took the Chargers +3 -20, as long as they don't turn it over they win the game, my only concern is the big coaching mismatch the Dolphins have
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
ZzyzxRoad said:
Made five bets yesterday.
Bears +3 @ Golden Nugget. Transitive handicapping here. In the Bears last home game, they almost beat the Saints, and that performance is more impressive, considering last week's results. Some teams seem to be getting 0 hfa, and that can't be right.
Giants +4 @ Treasure Island. I just don't think any of the NFC east teams are any good, and after this year, they might change the playoff format to keep the fourth best division winner doesn't automatically get a home game. Giants played the Eagles very tough the first time, and they still have a chance at winning the division.
Panthers +6
I bet this early, even though it's the same everywhere. Can't trust Tampa as a road favorite, especially after their last game, and Carolina is much better than their record.

Also bet, Bills-Cardinals under 56, and Texans-Browns under 54.5. I'm unsure about those, but the totals guy at headquarters swears they're great, so I bet them.
Click to expand...


Thanks for sharing, Z.

I like the transitive property in sports handicapping when used with round-robin results within the last 30 days or so.

Add a lean to underdogs and a lean to superior coaching and you have a chance to beat the 4.5% house edge.
 
F

Foresthill

EOG Addicted
ZzyzxRoad said:
Made five bets yesterday.
Bears +3 @ Golden Nugget. Transitive handicapping here. In the Bears last home game, they almost beat the Saints, and that performance is more impressive, considering last week's results. Some teams seem to be getting 0 hfa, and that can't be right.
Giants +4 @ Treasure Island. I just don't think any of the NFC east teams are any good, and after this year, they might change the playoff format to keep the fourth best division winner doesn't automatically get a home game. Giants played the Eagles very tough the first time, and they still have a chance at winning the division.
Panthers +6
I bet this early, even though it's the same everywhere. Can't trust Tampa as a road favorite, especially after their last game, and Carolina is much better than their record.

Also bet, Bills-Cardinals under 56, and Texans-Browns under 54.5. I'm unsure about those, but the totals guy at headquarters swears they're great, so I bet them.
Click to expand...

I love it. A guy who knows the proper/correct words are seem and think.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Philly is getting healthy at the right time, I'm very leery of NY. They have played Philly pretty well thru the years though and a good ATS record this year.

McCaffrey already is ruled out for Carolina. Mike Davis production has diminished, they will need him Sunday. TB working out chemistry issues and how to fit A Brown into the offense.

Mixon out for Cinn, but think they can score with Pitt. Line dropping all week is a concern.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
FairWarning said:
Philly is getting healthy at the right time, I'm very leery of NY. They have played Philly pretty well thru the years though and a good ATS record this year.

McCaffrey already is ruled out for Carolina. Mike Davis production has diminished, they will need him Sunday. TB working out chemistry issues and how to fit A Brown into the offense.

Mixon out for Cinn, but think they can score with Pitt. Line dropping all week is a concern.
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I'm on the Bengals
 
R

Rockfish

EOG Veteran
Bears coach Nagy said today he is giving up the play calling duty. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor to do the calling this week.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
John Kelly said:
Thanks for sharing, Z.

I like the transitive property in sports handicapping when used with round-robin results within the last 30 days or so.

Add a lean to underdogs and a lean to superior coaching and you have a chance to beat the 4.5% house edge.
Click to expand...

To each his own but I believe transitive handicapping is highly flawed, especially in football. Matchups, situation, injuries, you name it...all are far too important to judge one game without putting a lot of context around it. And if you put that context around it, you are basically going back to normal handicapping.

Think about it this way, lets say its Raiders at Ravens today, should I make the Raiders a road favorite because they were able to beat the Chiefs while the Ravens got beaten up by those Chiefs? You know that would never happen, but maybe you decide to bet the Raiders because of that. I wish you well, the matchups are completely different, the teams are lining up differently because of injuries/Covid.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Up
kane said:
Snarky comments like this is the reason why I don't publicly post all my plays other than a few here and there, and going forward I'll be posting less and less
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I didn’t mean it as snarky at all, I had seen the line was dropping according to covers. If I had an idea it was moving like that, I would have put it in at open. Sorry you took it that way, it wasn’t meant as a shot.
 
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