Week 11 NFL, Group Discussion

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
#1
Made two best before I left Las Vegas.
+7 On the Raiders seems like one of the best bets of the year. Raiders are starting to gel, and they should be the more motivated team.

Also, under 59 in the Seahawks-Cardinals. Coldish weather with a 60 percent chances of rain in Seattle, and if there are any punts, this thing should stay under.

Other than that, I didn't see a lot to get excited about. The odds seem pretty dharp, and this is usually the time in the season where I scale things back. Will wait to see what others here are doing.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#2
Why would LV be more motivated than KC? They beat KC by DD in the first meeting. Not a recommendation of throwing the retirement fund on KC, but they are coming off a bye, so they should be healthy.
 

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
#4
Why would LV be more motivated than KC? They beat KC by DD in the first meeting. Not a recommendation of throwing the retirement fund on KC, but they are coming off a bye, so they should be healthy.
Because they have a good chance of making the playoffs for what seems like the first time in a long time. KC can coast a little and still wind up with a first round bye.
Also, I tend to overvalued hfa in prime time games, but that should be lessened here.
 

kane

EOG master
#5
Because they have a good chance of making the playoffs for what seems like the first time in a long time. KC can coast a little and still wind up with a first round bye.
Also, I tend to overvalued hfa in prime time games, but that should be lessened here.
I respectfully disagree with you Benny, sure the Chiefs can coast a bit with the record they have, they're not a team fighting to make the playoffs, which is why there will be certain spots when fading them is profitable, for example we went against them their last game against a competent Carolina team and cashed, but this game is different, the Chiefs and Raiders hate each other, this is a rivalry that goes back to the old AFL days, I think this is a game the Chiefs will have no problem getting up for. Also, this normally isn't the type of stuff I pay much attention to but I heard this the other day, after beating the Chiefs earlier in the season, after the game the Raiders boarded their team bus, and Gruden had the driver circle around Arrowhead Stadium before leaving the parking lot, a "victory lap" of sorts, and Andy Reid wasn't too thrilled about it, I have to think between that happening combined with the big rivalry these teams have, the Chiefs should have no trouble getting up for this game. I'm not saying the Chiefs are the play or that I don't like your Raiders bet, I'm just giving you my thoughts as to why I think KC won't be lacking in motivation this week. I'll start capping these games today and as usual get you my stuff later in the week
 
#7
Hard to bet Raiders off that big win over a hated rival and now having to follow up with another huge effort against another rival. Reid's teams have traditionally laid the lumber on division rivals, that first Raiders win seems an anomaly.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#8
Made two best before I left Las Vegas.
+7 On the Raiders seems like one of the best bets of the year. Raiders are starting to gel, and they should be the more motivated team.

Also, under 59 in the Seahawks-Cardinals. Coldish weather with a 60 percent chances of rain in Seattle, and if there are any punts, this thing should stay under.

Other than that, I didn't see a lot to get excited about. The odds seem pretty dharp, and this is usually the time in the season where I scale things back. Will wait to see what others here are doing.
I like that under in Seattle. I like the Rams and Colts as sides.
 

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
#9
I respectfully disagree with you Benny, sure the Chiefs can coast a bit with the record they have, they're not a team fighting to make the playoffs, which is why there will be certain spots when fading them is profitable, for example we went against them their last game against a competent Carolina team and cashed, but this game is different, the Chiefs and Raiders hate each other, this is a rivalry that goes back to the old AFL days, I think this is a game the Chiefs will have no problem getting up for. Also, this normally isn't the type of stuff I pay much attention to but I heard this the other day, after beating the Chiefs earlier in the season, after the game the Raiders boarded their team bus, and Gruden had the driver circle around Arrowhead Stadium before leaving the parking lot, a "victory lap" of sorts, and Andy Reid wasn't too thrilled about it, I have to think between that happening combined with the big rivalry these teams have, the Chiefs should have no trouble getting up for this game. I'm not saying the Chiefs are the play or that I don't like your Raiders bet, I'm just giving you my thoughts as to why I think KC won't be lacking in motivation this week. I'll start capping these games today and as usual get you my stuff later in the week
I really do wonder about that sometimes, if all I'm really doing is following steam and then inventing rationalization for it so that I'll feel smarter.
Were you on Fezziks place years ago? The poster Dreamer used to post pictures of tea leaves under posts like mine whenever someone would post a write up he thought was moronic.
If I'm not mistaken, Gruden and Reid have been close friends away from the field for more than 30 years, so I'm not sure something like that could drive a wedge between them.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#10
Going to swallow hard and take Dallas and the Jets this week. I think the bye week really helps this time of the year. players are playing for jobs, all we need for them to do is cover anyway.
 

kane

EOG master
#11
I really do wonder about that sometimes, if all I'm really doing is following steam and then inventing rationalization for it so that I'll feel smarter.
Were you on Fezziks place years ago? The poster Dreamer used to post pictures of tea leaves under posts like mine whenever someone would post a write up he thought was moronic.
If I'm not mistaken, Gruden and Reid have been close friends away from the field for more than 30 years, so I'm not sure something like that could drive a wedge between them.
I don't think I ever posted at a forum run by Fezzik
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#20
ive been riding the fish like a beach cruiser, free nickle every sunday. Tua is a top 3 qb, Fitz is top 10 in nfl.
The Fish have been a great $$ maker for me also. Tomorrow is a concern on the road against a good defensive coach. That is why I like the under, should be an ugly game with a lot of FG's.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#21
There is a very strong Tomlin under angle. I can't remember the exact spread point, but I believe it is 7. When the Steelers are laying 7 or more on the road under Tomlin, they have 5 overs and 26 unders. It's "win and get out" philosophy, I also like teams who play the following Thursday to go under. The thinking is they go more heavily than usual on the run game, and it keeps the game moving and the overall number of plays from scrimmage is less, making it easier to recover with a quick turnaround.
 
#24
There is a very strong Tomlin under angle. I can't remember the exact spread point, but I believe it is 7. When the Steelers are laying 7 or more on the road under Tomlin, they have 5 overs and 26 unders. It's "win and get out" philosophy, I also like teams who play the following Thursday to go under. The thinking is they go more heavily than usual on the run game, and it keeps the game moving and the overall number of plays from scrimmage is less, making it easier to recover with a quick turnaround.
Steelers 33-4-2 under on road games if total is 49 or less. Courtesy of DR. Bob.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#32
Like seeing the offenses struggle. All the rule changes over the years have benefitted them. I don't play fantasy and generally there's more value on unders than overs.
 
#33
Agree Valuist, nice to see a weekend where defenses rule and offenses struggle a bit. Only GB/Indy looks like will be a back and forth offensive slugfest
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#36
Did I hear that right today? They are averaging more per rush attempt than pass?
Maybe today. On the season it is close however.

Almost every pass by Wentz today was off his back foot or against his body, they sail all over.

Fitz in for Miami, Tua got a pretty good injury scare.
 
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