Week 12 NFL, picks, groups discussion, and Kane kicks ass and chews bubblegum

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
#1
I bet the last +3.5 on the Rams at William Hill. It's a huge flat spot for Baltimore, and the Rams are on double secret probation. Have to think they're going to be the more focused team. Still looking at other stuff.
 

Sol Diablo

House of Heat
#2
Love Dallas getting 6.5 in New England this week. Also like Green Bay +3 in SF. Niners have been somewhat exposed the past few weeks. Their schedule really toughens up down the stretch too: vs GB, @ BAL, @ NO, vs ATL, vs LAR, @ SEA. Wouldn't be surprised if they drop 3-4 of those.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#4
I'll still be on the Ravens if its 3. Tough team to play for teams who don't face them much. They remind me of the Sapp-led Bucs, just kicked your ass on both sides of the line.

Swallowing hard here and playing Washington ML. Dome teams outside after October laying points will never get my money. Add to it JK's theory about leaky defenses, that is Detroit. It also helps that Wash was embarassed Sunday at home.

Don't care who is qb for the Bears this week, this is a massive flat spot for them. Reality has set in on a lost season, and they know it. Giants coming in off a bye and will be somewhat healthy.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#7
Dallas is in a bad spot. 3rd road game in 4 weeks, and a quick turnaround with a T-giving day game 4 days after New England.

Cleveland in a good spot; 3rd straight home game and 10 days rest.

Denver in their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and coming off a game they let get away late.
 

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
#8
I bet some Bengals +7 @ Will Hill. The number was too good to pass up. It's a division rivalry, and the Bengals look they haven't given up yet. Hard to handicap how Mason Rudolph will be effected by the last game, but what happened definitely won't help his confidence.
 

kane

EOG master
#9
First off, If I shit the bed this week I'll blame Benny for jinxing me. As far as the games I'm looking at, it's early in the week and nothing is set in stone, but the games that caught my eye are Miami and Carolina. This is a flat spot for the Browns, they're coming off back to back must win games as they try to salvage their season, and last week's game against the Steelers was an emotional, physical game, and next week they get the Steelers again, sandwiched in between are the Dolphins, personally I love a dolphin sandwich, a little lettuce, tomato, and some tarter sauce and I'm good to go, however, this Dolphin sandwich might not be so tasty for the Browns, Miami is a bad football team, everyone knows this including Cleveland, Flores has done a pretty good job with a team devoid of talent, one thing about the Fins is they do play hard, I wish the Browns were playing a more competitive team this week since imo their focus will be on next week's rematch with Pittsburgh, but it is what it is. Between next week's game plus having to answer questions all week about the Garrett incident I'm not sure their focus will be where it needs to be, and I don't trust Freddie Kitchens to keep them focused on a bad Miami team coming to town. As far as Carolina goes, they're coming off a bad loss to the Falcons which is providing value in this week's line, CRIS had a lookahead line of +7, now I'm seeing +9.5's across the board, I think it's an over adjustment. The Panthers blowout loss to Atlanta is a bit misleading, the total yards in the game were even, Atlanta scored on an 80 yard punt return, and Kyle Allen tossed 4 interceptions, when you lose the turnover battle 4-0, the odds are you're going to lose, and probably lose big, meanwhile the Saints are 8-3, but 5 of those wins have been by one score, they've been winning games so give them credit, but it's not like they're blowing teams out every week, they also have a game against Atlanta next week, the same Atlanta team that beat them by 17 at home the previous week, so maybe they have that revenge game against the Falcons on their minds, I'm sure it's a game they have circled. The Panthers are 5-5 and this game is more important to them than the Saints, hoping to get 10 with them in what should be a competitive game. A couple others I'm thinking about are the Bengals (God help me), and the Rams. Not sure I can stomach betting the Dolphins and Bengals the same week, but it's a flat spot for the Steelers, and even though it's tough to step in front of this Ravens train, getting three with the Rams at home interests me, I know everyone is shitting on Goff, and the Rams have been disappointing this year, but they've been solid defensively, the Ravens average 5.7 yards per rush attempt which looks like something out of college, but the Rams only give up 3.3 yards per attempt, so if they can slow down the Ravens running game, which of course is easier said than done, this is a game they can win, and between McVay and Phillips, I think they can come up with a defensive game plan to slow down Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are coming off four consecutive blowout victories, at some point they'll come back to earth, and this is a bigger game for LA, they likely can't win the division, so every game is crucial in their fight for a wild card spot. On the teaser front, the only one that looks good to me is Seattle, I might open a tease with them. As always I'll post my official plays during the week, GL to all this week, unless you're fading me of course.
 
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kane

EOG master
#10
I bet some Bengals +7 @ Will Hill. The number was too good to pass up. It's a division rivalry, and the Bengals look they haven't given up yet. Hard to handicap how Mason Rudolph will be effected by the last game, but what happened definitely won't help his confidence.
I'll probably end up on them as well, not sure how well Rudolph will play, plus they lose Pouncey at center, and Conner and JuJu might not play. My main concern is Ryan Finley and the inept Bengals offense going against a nasty Steelers defense, but this is a flat spot for Pittsburgh and catching 7 at home in a division game looks good, of course Steeler fans travel and the crowd will probably be close to 50/50, so it diminishes the home field advantage Cincinnati will have, but this would be a play more against the Steelers than on the Bengals
 
#11
Kane & Zzy

Besides the valid points on both games there are even more.....The Browns are just plain not that good.....and check out Baker close....better last couple...but hard not to be....tuff to back MIA but in the NFL as you well know it pays

Same with the Bungles.....and the crowd will be more HF for PIT....also PIT just like CLV just not that good....and if you think K Allen was bad last week....look at Rudolph's numbers...lol

Already have a nice 2T ML on these that's about 18/1 on top of the 2T spread
 
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