Re: Week 4 Plays
Quick question for ya, how much stock do you put into historical ATS numbers (coming off a L, W, revenge, etc.) vs. real time info like how the team looked last week, injuries, weather, etc.?
I really have a tough time looking at a teams last 10 games ATS coming off a home loss or whatever it may be since some of that data may be from a team with completely different players/personnel.
Just curious.
We use what is known as "technical information" to reinforce our plays. The technical side of things can either confirm our play or put us off of a game. For example, one of the games we looked at was taking Oregon and the lead line (+7) at home against Cal. Oregon did beat a good Utah team, and 7 points at home looked very tempting. But when we looked at some of the technical info (Cal 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with Oregon, 8-0 ATS in a conference game coming off a non-con game, and the fact that Oregon has not been a home dog in over 3 years) we found too many intangables in the equation, so we passed on the game.
Sometimes the technical information is not enough to effect our decisions. We took Auburn at -27 because we projected the corect line to be -34.5. The fact that Auburn is 0-7 against a non-con opponent off a double diget win was not strong enough to offset that bad line. As it turned out, this is also a bad spot for Ball State, being 1-9 in this situation.
So we use "technical" information to either confirm our picks, or to get us off a pick. Last week, we jumped on the Air Force over New Mexico, partly because the Air Force was 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against New Mexico. They are now 6-0. This week we took the Air Force at home over San Diego State, partially because they are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games against San Diego State. There were a lot of other reasons, but the technical side just reinforced our decision.
The technical side to wagering is part of a larger overall strategy involving any type of gaming. Simply put, it states this: Either bet with a streak, or do not wager at all, but never bet against a streak. The reason is rather simple and logical. If you wager against a streak, you can lose many games before the streak is broken, but if you wager with the streak, you can only lose once.