What am I missing with the NFL Divisional playoffs?

Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Ravens are a -9.5 favorite.

When you plug 9.5 favorite into the sbr spread to moneyline conversion chart you get -565 and +405

Yet looking online I see pinnacle at -406 and in vegas westgate at -420.

Would these these be big +EV bets on the moneyline on the ravens?

or is this calculator off ?
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
action network conversion calc is showing a 9.5 line should be -505/370

ravens ML shows value based on this right?

am i missing something.
 
bishqqq

bishqqq

EOG Addicted
never bet NFL playoffs.........put all your energy towards college hoops & totals.........much easier, imho........good luck sportsrmylife !
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
bishqqq said:
never bet NFL playoffs.........put all your energy towards college hoops & totals.........much easier, imho........good luck sportsrmylife !
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understand but these ML situations this weekend seem very off

sf -7. calc shows -371 yet best in vegas is -300
kc -9.5 calc shows -565 yet best in vegas -440
gb -4.5 calc shows -238 but best in vegas -200
balt -9.5 calc shows -565 but best in vegas -420

have to bet where the value is right?
 
L

lap18

EOG Dedicated
Sportsrmylife said:
understand but these ML situations this weekend seem very off

sf -7. calc shows -371 yet best in vegas is -300
kc -9.5 calc shows -565 yet best in vegas -440
gb -4.5 calc shows -238 but best in vegas -200
balt -9.5 calc shows -565 but best in vegas -420

have to bet where the value is right?
Click to expand...
Teaser protection?
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Probably correct but why would the moneylines be mispriced this badly. Not one favorite moneyline is correct.

As if the books sucked all the value out of the dogs with the assumption that people are going to be moneyline dogs.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Sportsrmylife said:
Probably correct but why would the moneylines be mispriced this badly. Not one favorite moneyline is correct.

As if the books sucked all the value out of the dogs with the assumption that people are going to be moneyline dogs.
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Because many non bettors bet playoffs and look for the Big Bang for their dollar. They are playing dog ML’s.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
I’ll be at the casino in Indiana the arching the Tenn game with great interest and hope Tenn jumps out to a 7-10 lead. I’m sitting on 75/1 and 90/1 Tenn futures.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
This happens every year in the playoffs. Lots of public money is going to or will be going to the dog on the ML so they are getting in front of it. The guy who wants to bet the favorite is going to lay the points while the guy betting the dog will take the odds.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
FairWarning said:
I’ll be at the casino in Indiana the arching the Tenn game with great interest and hope Tenn jumps out to a 7-10 lead. I’m sitting on 75/1 and 90/1 Tenn futures.
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you , me and a 10000 more people have that .. the books will go bust if it wins. We will probably get blown out 1st Q
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Sportsrmylife said:
understand but these ML situations this weekend seem very off

sf -7. calc shows -371 yet best in vegas is -300
kc -9.5 calc shows -565 yet best in vegas -440
gb -4.5 calc shows -238 but best in vegas -200
balt -9.5 calc shows -565 but best in vegas -420

have to bet where the value is right?
Click to expand...

Since MLs are nonlinear, relatively large ML differences aren't nearly as large in terms of breakeven percentage.

All the differences of the lines above are between 3.5% and 4.2%, all less than the 20 cent difference between -120 and +100 which is 4.54%.
 
alldaycapper

alldaycapper

EOG Veteran
Betting in game has been profitable in the playoffs. Tough to bet playoff games preflop. Lines are tight not much of an advantage.
 
S

SlipperyPete

EOG Dedicated
Sportsrmylife said:
Ravens are a -9.5 favorite.

When you plug 9.5 favorite into the sbr spread to moneyline conversion chart you get -565 and +405

Yet looking online I see pinnacle at -406 and in vegas westgate at -420.

Would these these be big +EV bets on the moneyline on the ravens?

or is this calculator off ?
Click to expand...

I think its always been like that. I guess in the playoffs more people want "their team to move onto the next round" so they bet them on the ML

Just one example the first Pats vs Giants SB the Pats at 14 point favs were only -500
 
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