What do you guys make of these OFF ratio NBA 1st half TOTAL lines total game?

trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
what do you guys make of these OFF ratio NBA 1st half lines

more and more of these have been on the board this year.

an example is this, you might think that both of these games would have about the same first half line on the TOTAL. by that I mean well both games nearly same final game total, and both games are about the same point spread at 2.5 or so pretty close. yet the first half lines are WAY different. thoughts? There have been lots of these this year in NBA this is just a clear example to discuss wtf is going on. these are not mislines all shops have about the same thing.




what do you guys make of these OFF ratio NBA 1st half lines


Dec 09 527 UTAH -3-104 o216-110 -146
7:00 PM 528 PHILADELPHIA +3-116 u216-110 +126

Dec 09 531 DENVER +2½-115 o215½-113 +115
8:30 PM 532 SAN ANTONIO -2½-105 u215½-107 -135

NBA First Half Lines - Dec 09
Dec 09 1527 1H UTAH -1-110 o105-110 -140
7:00 PM 1528 1H PHILADELPHIA +1-110 u105-110 +120

Dec 09 1531 1H DENVER +1-106 o111-115 +115
8:30 PM 1532 1H SAN ANTONIO -1-114 u111-105 -135
 
jimmythegreek

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
I see situations that alternate and favor or laggard both home and away teams, and then again in the second half. It's challenging but tough to read given when injuries and favorable home and away overall records factor into play.
 
raycabino

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
"The Logic of Sports Betting" book by Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow goes into this subject as well as many others. Great read for sports gamblers.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
I think that is to be expected since relatively few NBA games end inside of 3 points. At some offshore sites you can buy those points inside of 3 so cheaply, like you'll see a team -2 -108 and you can get them -1 -115, but if a team is -4.5 -108, you'll pay more just to take it down half a point to -4 than the difference for a full point (-2 to -1).
 
Bucky

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
Well, I guess I have my homework assignment. Find every aberrant 1st half line and sort them by team/venue. Do not pre judge the results.

Pretty sure we cannot find value because somebody somewhere was beating the first half over so much the line had to be tweaked.

But, nice find! Next question is why is it happening? rotation pattern for substitutions, etc.?
 
Bucky

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
trytrytry said:
what do you guys make of these OFF ratio NBA 1st half lines

more and more of these have been on the board this year.

an example is this, you might think that both of these games would have about the same first half line on the TOTAL. by that I mean well both games nearly same final game total, and both games are about the same point spread at 2.5 or so pretty close. yet the first half lines are WAY different. thoughts? There have been lots of these this year in NBA this is just a clear example to discuss wtf is going on. these are not mislines all shops have about the same thing.




what do you guys make of these OFF ratio NBA 1st half lines


Dec 09 527 UTAH -3-104 o216-110 -146
7:00 PM 528 PHILADELPHIA +3-116 u216-110 +126

Dec 09 531 DENVER +2½-115 o215½-113 +115
8:30 PM 532 SAN ANTONIO -2½-105 u215½-107 -135

NBA First Half Lines - Dec 09
Dec 09 1527 1H UTAH -1-110 o105-110 -140
7:00 PM 1528 1H PHILADELPHIA +1-110 u105-110 +120

Dec 09 1531 1H DENVER +1-106 o111-115 +115
8:30 PM 1532 1H SAN ANTONIO -1-114 u111-105 -135
Click to expand...


One favorite is a road team and one at home. I know the 1st half score is a factor but after the total on the San Antonio game was 6 points higher at 111 for the first half. Their 2nd 1/2 total was 103 1/2 compared to the Jazz 2nd 1/2 total of 110 1/2. Just the opposite.

Den/SAS is the one that looks off on the 1h total? I looked at 12/8,9,10,11 for 32 games. Found 20 games like this although this was spread among the teams and the over still went 11-8-1 even with these totals being jacked 5 points. Now, to answer the question why. Going to need line movement to see if they are set this way or moved there? There must be a consistent factor like travel/rest, etc.?

Reaffirms my belief that the lines makers know what they are doing.
 
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