So when you see a Monday night game that is -2 -110, and you see a ML of +115 on the dog BW is going to take +2 at -110? I doubt that very much, and YES I have seen those numbers before. Why on earth would anyone take a dog at -110 plus the points where there is only one number they can LOSE on? (barring a tie, which happens about 1 in a thousand games)
There is actually a game similar to this right now Sea at +2 +100 or +122 on the ML. The fave is -2 -108 -132 ML. If you like Seattle here taking the +122 is a no brainer IMO, the odds of them losing by 1 point are right around 1%. Now that I have said this and used it as an example they probably will
, but situations like that are simple IMO. Although the chance of a tie is about 2%, so you have maybe a 2.5-3% chance of having a negative result, but for 22 cents it is well worth it.
It always depends on the situations and the ML versus points and vig. But as a general rule of thumb there is no difference over the long haul between betting the dog ML or the dog plus the points. In lower spread levels that is. Especially with the lower holds they are takling on ML plays now. There is no set standard for spreads anymore. A -3 fave isn't always -150. It might be -165, or could be -130.
Another example, Az is -3 +115, and -132 on the ML. You could take the -3 and hope they win by 4 or more and get the extra juice, or you can simply hope they win (inclduing the 3) and take the lowered odds of -132. As it is, you can take a nice shot in that game and get a middle. Or look elsewhere and look for SF +3 at -110. That way you get the -132 ML, and a shot at getting a middle on a 1 or 2 point differential.
