William Hill US: LSU-Clemson Will Be "Biggest-Bet College Football Game of All Time"

#1
Everybody and their mother seems to be backing LSU to cover against Clemson in the upcoming College Football Playoff National Championship game. Nearly 75% of the spread action offshore is on LSU at -6 (some books were at -5.5). The line opened as low as LSU favored by 3 and has certainly moved in the right direction based on the amount of action coming in.

"We're going to need Clemson for a whole pile," Jeff Davis, risk director for Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN.com Thursday.

BetOnline's Dave Mason indicated that action was closer to 80% on LSU earlier in the week.


Jason Scott, vice president of trading for ROAR Digital/BetMGM sportsbooks, supported the notion of lopsided action on LSU.
"The last time we've seen such a one-sided [betting] event was Conor McGregor versus Floyd Mayweather [in 2017]," Scott told ESPN.

In Vegas, just like offshore, the number seemed to be anywhere from 75% to 80% on the LSU spread.

The exposure across the board will be significant.

William Hill U.S. told ESPN that LSU-Clemson could be the "biggest-bet college football game of all time."

"Right now, it's all LSU," Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill U.S., said Thursday. "Current money is about 8-to-1 in favor of LSU and tickets are about 4-to-1 in favor of LSU."

Most lines are derived from Sagarin and the oddsmakers shade them accordingly. Sagarin does not factor in injuries.

On a neutral field, they have Clemson by a point
G911
 

bmiller

EOG Addicted
#2
starting to hate when these sports book managers make these reports that they are one sided on ticket counts on certain teams with public money .. almost feels like they are trying to lure people in to thinking Clemson is the right side
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#5
starting to hate when these sports book managers make these reports that they are one sided on ticket counts on certain teams with public money .. almost feels like they are trying to lure people in to thinking Clemson is the right side
The funny thins is every gambling show, most of the pro bettors in the forums, and most touts will be on Clemson tonight based on the numbers.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#6
To bettors, I don't see the relevance of handle numbers or bookmakers detailing their previous week's results. And next year's handle will be bigger than this year's, which will be eclipsed again in 2021.
 
#8
The line was -6 about 2 weeks ago. One bookmaker said nobody took clemson at his shop except an old lady from Schenectady, N.Y. in a wheelchair she only came town to visit her kid and took a bus and bet $10


:rolleyes:
 
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Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#20
Great example of why overs tend to be bad bets. Here was a game on pace to go over, virtually all game. But LSU was quite content to keep burning clock. And Clemson was just incompetent. Yes, overs do win at times but they seem less predictive and more random. The status quo favors scoring not happening.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
#21
I saw a lot of 66.5's just before kickoff. Game started really slow until we saw the 2nd quarter LSU fireworks, and you had to think the over was a no-brainer when Clemson switched the momentum early in the 3rd. However that LSU defense clamped down holding Clemson under 400 yards and didn't allow a Lawrence TD pass plus under 50% efficiency. Great game plan coach Meatman.
 
#22
Great example of why overs tend to be bad bets. Here was a game on pace to go over, virtually all game. But LSU was quite content to keep burning clock. And Clemson was just incompetent. Yes, overs do win at times but they seem less predictive and more random. The status quo favors scoring not happening.
Actually most of the first quarter was on a pace to go way under. Each side had 3 punts in Q1.

A little less than an hour into the game, I bet in-progress OVER 56.5 -110 to get a middle with a starting position of UNDER 68. I think that was the low watermark for the in-progress total which later soared during the Q2 and Q3
 
#23
I saw a lot of 66.5's just before kickoff. Game started really slow until we saw the 2nd quarter LSU fireworks, and you had to think the over was a no-brainer when Clemson switched the momentum early in the 3rd. However that LSU defense clamped down holding Clemson under 400 yards and didn't allow a Lawrence TD pass plus under 50% efficiency. Great game plan coach Meatman.
I saw bookmaker.eu go to 65.5 today.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#25
Can’t wait to hear the sportsbooks on VSIN crying this morning how they got beat up. They will never tell you about the heavy exposure they had on Clemson futures or the under hitting for them. Lawrence props were great for them also. Same goes for the people betting on what the books need because they never lose. They don’t lose because they get +110 and lot lay -110.
 
#26
Can’t wait to hear the sportsbooks on VSIN crying this morning how they got beat up. They will never tell you about the heavy exposure they had on Clemson futures or the under hitting for them. Lawrence props were great for them also. Same goes for the people betting on what the books need because they never lose. They don’t lose because they get +110 and lot lay -110.

they get clobbered some days a month... but overall they limit the best guys / hope they don't send in beards and collect from the rest
 
#27
You have to be stupid not to think books put out false information or fib when it comes to public consumption regarding movement and lines. They are in the business to win just us.
 
#28
We can try to make a reasonable conclusion on who is doing what.

I just moved a halftime live line on the over 3.5 and 4 in this Coppa Italian soccer match between Napoli and Peguria and I'm not even sharp.
 
#30
saw westgate closed -4.5. But then again I heard John Murray say that when they went to LSU -6 the first couple of five figure bets they took were on LSU -6. Yes these bettors could have bet LSU -5.5 but instead bet -6

will be interesting to hear how the books did on this game along with the futures market.
 
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