For the Craps Players in the Crowd

[ajaysdreamplays]

On my most recent trip to Vegas (got home last Friday), I hit 54.6% winning points for the 73 total points I played during a specific timeframe. (Only JK can intelligently speculate as to why I played higher line bets and odds during that specific timeframe).

On the remainder of all points played during the five day trip, I played at lower values, and only hit the norm.

If you're a serious player, you know that norm to be what (multiple choice)?

A. 50%
B. 44.5 %
C. 40.6%
D. 33.3%

 

[DJDalamar]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

I'm not serious but I assume 44.5

 

[kinosh]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

C

 

[unluckysob]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

my only casino game---i play about 70 % dont pass---even when you lose at craps, you lose a lot slower----game is just more fun---casino dollar last much longer if you stay away from 21 game.

 

[fifty cint]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

Where did you play?

 

[Bucky]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

I like your topic. I came up with 39.16% so I want to see your math on this - LOL.

 

[Bucky]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

OOPs - have to recalculate for 73 points - I was working on 36 rolls of the dice

 

[ajaysdreamplays]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

kinosh appears to be the only serious player in the crowd.

The dice have 36 possibilities in any given roll; 24 of those are point nos. - 45689T. Odds of hitting your point are as follows:

4T - .33; 3 ways for each no.
59 - .40; 4 ways for each no.
68 - .4545; 5 ways for each no.

The 7 has 6 ways of hitting (34/43/25/52/16/61

You multiply each pt. no. by its total possible hits x its pct. of hitting vs. sevening out, avg. them, and you come up with 40.6%.

 

[Bucky]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

If I understand the question right - 73 points were established - 4,5,6,8,9,10. Out of those 73 - 25% would be either 4 or 10, 33% would be 5 or 9, and 41% would be a 6 or 8.

OK - got there - LOL - I've got 40.63% - Let's take "What is C" Alex.

So out of 73 points you would expect to make close to 30 and at 54.6% you most have made about 40? You were rocking. How did you do on the naturals coming out? It sucks when somebody is rolling numbers and then everybody gets built up on the come bets and even though the odds are not working on the come out they get rocked by a comeout 7 and lose all their come bets on a hot roller.

 

[ajaysdreamplays]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

Come-outs were about avg. - 12 net during the 73-pt. run. I did watch an older Japanese gentleman do something very unusual; at least I'd never seen it in over 40 years of play. He rolled 30-odd nos. while trying to hit ONE pt. - the six. And failed to hit his six. Absolutely amazing.

Guys who claim to be able to "control" the dice always like to shoot from close to the center of the table, but this gentleman shot from the end. This occurred at the Golden Nugget early in the am with few players there to take advantage. Me, I'm a one-and-run kinda guy on the nos., so I profited from only one of his throws, then lost on the 7-out.

As to where I played - Strip & downtown, but not any of the off-Strip places.

 

[DJDalamar]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

Laughlin is wonderful for craps players. 1-3 dollar limits most of the time, older clientele so everyone is polite. I play more here then when I go to Vegas. Though shooting craps at Slots of Fun on nice days can be a great time as well.

 

[fifty cint]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

Love playin craps at The Cal and Nugget.

 

[kinosh]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

kinosh appears to be the only serious player in the crowd.

The dice have 36 possibilities in any given roll; 24 of those are point nos. - 45689T. Odds of hitting your point are as follows:

4T - .33; 3 ways for each no.
59 - .40; 4 ways for each no.
68 - .4545; 5 ways for each no.

The 7 has 6 ways of hitting (34/43/25/52/16/61

You multiply each pt. no. by its total possible hits x its pct. of hitting vs. sevening out, avg. them, and you come up with 40.6%.

Craps is all I play! (Well, aside from a little poker recently) I am still skeptical on dice control, even after reading Frank Scoblete's book.

I've also run computer simulations and have not been able to determine what is considered "long term" playing the pass/don't pass. 73 points is definitely short-term, so anything can happen. If anyone has been able to hit that expected -EV on a computer consistently, I would love to hear how many rolls it takes.

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

At Stupak's place in town, you could have 2,3,11, and 12 as your point....crapless craps...

I enjoyed watching the oldtimers play it...

 

[ajaysdreamplays]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

I hated Stupak's... so much so that I haven't even bothered to visit the Stratosphere even though I know Bob (rip) never had anything to do with it.

As to dice control, I'm on the same page as you. Howsomever... an old friend whose judgment and honesty I respect, tells me that he's well into it (Dr. Dice on Schlorete's site), and has promised to show me what it's all about in Vegas in 2012.

Yes, 73 pts. is indeed short-term. Having said that, kindly explain why I had the insight to only play higher value bets during that particular timeframe (again, only JK knows the answer).

 

[kinosh]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

At Stupak's place in town, you could have 2,3,11, and 12 as your point....crapless craps...

I enjoyed watching the oldtimers play it...

Crapless craps is a bad game for the player; the house edge is 5.382% as opposed to 1.41% for the traditional pass line bet.

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

Crapless craps is a bad game for the player; the house edge is 5.382% as opposed to 1.41% for the traditional pass line bet.

Obviously, but you should have seen the faces of the players when a point of 2 or 12 were made...PRICELESS!!

 

[BetToWin33]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

kinosh, do you only play pass/dont pass?

 

[kinosh]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

kinosh, do you only play pass/dont pass?

Yes. Sometimes I will add come/don't come with my odds ALWAYS working.

 

[cheapseats]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

Laughlin is wonderful for craps players. 1-3 dollar limits most of the time, older clientele so everyone is polite. I play more here then when I go to Vegas. Though shooting craps at Slots of Fun on nice days can be a great time as well.

Yea, love it there, play $5 dollar units and it's the bomb.

 

[Jeff Jones]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

If you're a serious player....,

What is a serious craps player? One who frowns a lot at the table?

I loves to play craps, and I think Dalamar mentioned Slot's a fun. Lots of fun times playing there. But let's don't go crazy here. You can't get serious about this game, or it will wipe you away. It's that crazy math thang again. The math make take a short catnap often enough to give you hope, but the math never really sleeps.

Other than for fun, there is no point in keeping statistics on the random distribution of rolls that occurred while you were at the table. I always like those guys who write down every roll and base their next decision on the results of their "research." I think somebody named that "Gambler's Fallacy" one time.

One tip from experience playing craps at Slot's A Fun.

Always play "Don't Pass." Nobody in that totally tourist crowd understands it. Back in the old days (many, many years ago) when I cared. I could pick up girls just by taking the time to explain "Don't Pass" to them. And then if I won (and the rest of the table was losing), I suddenly became the God of all gambling. And if I lost, it didn't matter. There would be a new crop of girls through there the next day.

But that was back when Sinatra was playing the Westward Ho.

 

[ajaysdreamplays]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

What JJ says about the math is true. The trick is to play only when the math takes a break. And when might that be, you might ask.

And I would have to tell you that all I can offer is to follow me around.

Yes, long-term craps winner here. Same thing with MLB, a sport some say can't be beat in the long-term. Ok, have it your way. I don't post craps tips here for the same reason I don't post my MLB plays here.

 

[ArchieBunker]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

What JJ says about the math is true. The trick is to play only when the math takes a break. And when might that be, you might ask.

And I would have to tell you that all I can offer is to follow me around.

Yes, long-term craps winner here. Same thing with MLB, a sport some say can't be beat in the long-term. Ok, have it your way. I don't post craps tips here for the same reason I don't post my MLB plays here.

LOLOLOLOL.... if you're a long term craps winner then you haven't played very long or very much. Please go bullshit another crowd... this one won't go for it.

 

[ajaysdreamplays]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

I tried to make it clear that I neither ask nor expect guys to believe me. For sure, the casinos neither know nor fear me due to the simple fact that I'm far from being a whale. My line bets range only from $25-$100. Those kinds of bets keep me well under their radar.

Interestingly, the casinos still comp me - they care only about my avg. dollar play and hours at the table - not whether I've beat them or not.

And yeah, I guess I ought to specify "long-term." For the first 25 years of my Vegas craps life, I did not win. It's only been the last 17 years that I can make the statement for. I even pay taxes on my winnings, and document each and every table I play.

Funny thing is, when I pull out my book at the table, others (particularly pit bosses) tend to snear, like I'm another guy like JJ made reference to - keeping track thinking the table will repeat itself. Far from it. My book is used strictly for IRS purposes - by showing time, place, dollars w/l, etc., I'm a lot less likely to be accused of winning more money than i actually did win.

 

[kinosh]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

What JJ says about the math is true. The trick is to play only when the math takes a break. And when might that be, you might ask.

And I would have to tell you that all I can offer is to follow me around.

Yes, long-term craps winner here. Same thing with MLB, a sport some say can't be beat in the long-term. Ok, have it your way. I don't post craps tips here for the same reason I don't post my MLB plays here.

?When the math takes a break?? Can you enlighten us as to how this happens?

 

[ajaysdreamplays]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

Ummm... no. At least not for now. Jk has a good idea, but he's currently held to confidence. Maybe at a later date.

 

[kinosh]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

Ummm... no. At least not for now. Jk has a good idea, but he's currently held to confidence. Maybe at a later date.

Translation: "I made a REALLY stupid comment, therefore I am an IDIOT!!"

 

[ajaysdreamplays]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

I stand by every word I said, and feel no obligation to add to it.

JK and I will be getting together in about three weeks to discuss the possibility of my introducing a radically different gambling concept on his radio show, but no guarantees there.

In any event, I feel confident that this very different concept will be introduced to the gambling public (including EOG) in some form or other nlt 3Q 2012. Have patience.

 

[ArchieBunker]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

I tried to make it clear that I neither ask nor expect guys to believe me. For sure, the casinos neither know nor fear me due to the simple fact that I'm far from being a whale. My line bets range only from $25-$100. Those kinds of bets keep me well under their radar.

Interestingly, the casinos still comp me - they care only about my avg. dollar play and hours at the table - not whether I've beat them or not.

And yeah, I guess I ought to specify "long-term." For the first 25 years of my Vegas craps life, I did not win. It's only been the last 17 years that I can make the statement for. I even pay taxes on my winnings, and document each and every table I play.

Funny thing is, when I pull out my book at the table, others (particularly pit bosses) tend to snear, like I'm another guy like JJ made reference to - keeping track thinking the table will repeat itself. Far from it. My book is used strictly for IRS purposes - by showing time, place, dollars w/l, etc., I'm a lot less likely to be accused of winning more money than i actually did win.

And you pay taxes on your craps winnings.... alrighty, then. Folks, we have a winner. I am proud to announce the title of biggest idiot on the internet goes to our buddy, ajaysdreamplays. Congrats, AJ, take a bow. :shoot:

 

[KingRevolver]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

I love playing Craps (very exciting game) but I'm not as serious about it as some of you guys. I know it's a -EV game. I mostly stick to the Pass/Don't Pass bets, Take Odds, and occasionally throw a sucker "Field" bet out there.

 

[Teddy kgb]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

'dont pass'

How do you walk up to a table where everyone is trying to win and say "Hi I'm a asshole and hope you lose and to prove it I'm going to bet on it"

 

[KingRevolver]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

'dont pass'

How do you walk up to a table where everyone is trying to win and say "Hi I'm a asshole and hope you lose and to prove it I'm going to bet on it"

You would actually have a problem doing that, Teddy? I'm shocked. LOL

Don't Pass Bar is your best bet in Craps. Fuck the rest of the table.

 

[kinosh]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

'dont pass'

How do you walk up to a table where everyone is trying to win and say "Hi I'm a asshole and hope you lose and to prove it I'm going to bet on it"

If playing the Don't Pass bothers you, you can play the Don't Come. That way, your point is different from everyone else's. When the point does hit, you don't lose and when the 7 comes up on the come-out, everyone wins.

 

[Teddy kgb]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

If playing the Don't Pass bothers you, you can play the Don't Come. That way, your point is different from everyone else's. When the point does hit, you don't lose and when the 7 comes up on the come-out, everyone wins.

Good info....are the odds the same as if I played dont pass?

 

[kinosh]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

Good info....are the odds the same as if I played dont pass?

Odds are identical. If people around me get annoyed with me playing the Don't Pass, I will switch to the Don't Come. Not that I care much what other people think, I do want everyone to have a good time. The Don't Come allows that because you are flying under the radar by playing a different point. When the 7 hits on the comeout, everyone wins, which isn't the case if you are playing the Don't Pass.

 

[ajaysdreamplays]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

Don't pass is fun. I used to play it about half the time. "Used to play" is the key part of that comment. I may yet play it again, but in the meanwhile I think I've discovered an alternative method of play which provides more profit at a lower monetary risk.

But I must say, every time a pt. sevens out, I think about the days when I'd have won money on that throw.

 

[Jeff Jones]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

I think I've discovered an alternative method of play which provides more profit at a lower monetary risk.

Let the casinos know. They will send a plane and a limo for you.

 

[kinosh]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

Don't pass is fun. I used to play it about half the time. "Used to play" is the key part of that comment. I may yet play it again, but in the meanwhile I think I've discovered an alternative method of play which provides more profit at a lower monetary risk.

But I must say, every time a pt. sevens out, I think about the days when I'd have won money on that throw.

Don't tell me....probably some sort of hedge bet. Doesn't work, pal. Aside from the odds/lay bet (which has a zero EV), EVERY bet on a craps table has a -EV. You can't increase your "profit at a lower monetary risk" unless you minimize that theoretical EV. Anything can happen in the short-term, but not the long-term.

 

[ajaysdreamplays]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

Don't tell me....probably some sort of hedge bet. Doesn't work, pal. Aside from the odds/lay bet (which has a zero EV), EVERY bet on a craps table has a -EV. You can't increase your "profit at a lower monetary risk" unless you minimize that theoretical EV. Anything can happen in the short-term, but not the long-term.

A hedge bet? (Guffaw, guffaw) You couldn't be farther off.

Lemme see... you're trying to explain craps ev to a guy who's been playing the game for over 40 years? How old are you, anyway?

 

[kinosh]

Re: For the Craps Players in the Crowd

A hedge bet? (Guffaw, guffaw) You couldn't be farther off.

Lemme see... you're trying to explain craps ev to a guy who's been playing the game for over 40 years? How old are you, anyway?

Since you claim to play "only when the math takes a break," you haven't learned much in those 40 years, have you?