- Thread starter WildBill
- Start date

MGM offering a bet of yes or no, a wild card team makes it to the Super Bowl. Both sides are -115. Other than the Ravens, who is a real threat to get there? Seems like the no should be closer to -200. And I overlooking something here?

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Interesting proposition, equivalent to having either WC win their conference or 2 WC win both conferences. Odds at BM to win AFC conference: Ravens are +565 plus Colts, Browns at >= +2800 and NFC: TB +388, + Rams, Bears >= +1150. Rough odds then are 20% AFC and 28% NFC so odds either or both happen is about 48%.

There are now 16 unique SB matchups, only four do not contain at least one WC: GB vs (KC or Buf) and NO vs (KC or Buf). of course, these four are most of the very likely.

Of course, I could have evaluated the odds before WC week by tracing all the possibilities with ML estimates, but the Conference odds provided a short cut in which Bookmaker did the evaluation work for me. Now doing the matchup evaluations can be handled easily to estimate the prop that at least one WC makes the SB.

I'll give an brief description here: the Ravens are currently about fair odds of +128 or 46% vs the Bills, and the Browns fair odds are +440 or 22% vs the Chiefs. So the Ravens odds Pw = (W% vs Buf * ( Pkc * Win% vs KC + Pcle * Win% vs Cle) i.e this week's odds times next week's odds. Using Win % vs KC as 30% and Win % vs Cle as 70%, we get the Ravens at 17% to win the AFC. Similarly, we can get the Browns at 6%, TB at 18% and LAR at 11%.

So we have 23% plus 29% or 52% to have at least one WC in the SB.

There are now 16 unique SB matchups, only four do not contain at least one WC: GB vs (KC or Buf) and NO vs (KC or Buf). of course, these four are most of the very likely.

Of course, I could have evaluated the odds before WC week by tracing all the possibilities with ML estimates, but the Conference odds provided a short cut in which Bookmaker did the evaluation work for me. Now doing the matchup evaluations can be handled easily to estimate the prop that at least one WC makes the SB.

I'll give an brief description here: the Ravens are currently about fair odds of +128 or 46% vs the Bills, and the Browns fair odds are +440 or 22% vs the Chiefs. So the Ravens odds Pw = (W% vs Buf * ( Pkc * Win% vs KC + Pcle * Win% vs Cle) i.e this week's odds times next week's odds. Using Win % vs KC as 30% and Win % vs Cle as 70%, we get the Ravens at 17% to win the AFC. Similarly, we can get the Browns at 6%, TB at 18% and LAR at 11%.

So we have 23% plus 29% or 52% to have at least one WC in the SB.