Are we having INFlation or DEFlation..???

BCTTWR

EOG Dedicated
#2
Re: Are we having INFlation or DEFlation..???

The sleazy politicians are making sure that does not happen. If the govt. prints more money, inflation will surely follow. The Fed does not want deflation because they feel the economy will suffer that much more. Businesses will go bankrupt is their thinking. Look what happened to the deflation of the housing market.
 
#3
Re: Are we having INFlation or DEFlation..???

Technically, we are in a deflationary environment as just about anything you can buy cost less today than 12 months ago. All the money that is being "helicoptered" into the economy is not about to create inflation any time soon, as nobody has any money, and if the do, they are turning to savers, thus inflation is not capable. With all major asset classes taking a beating in price and value, inflation is not about to rear its head anytime soon.
 
#4
Re: Are we having INFlation or DEFlation..???

Technically, we are in a deflationary environment as just about anything you can buy cost less today than 12 months ago. All the money that is being "helicoptered" into the economy is not about to create inflation any time soon, as nobody has any money, and if the do, they are turning to savers, thus inflation is not capable. With all major asset classes taking a beating in price and value, inflation is not about to rear its head anytime soon.
Is that really your personal experience?

I have often thought that the government inflation indices measure a world where I don't live.

Certainly, all sorts of real estate, the stock market, and other investment type assets have taken a beating lately.

However, when I go to Wal-Mart and compare the prices I am paying for exactly the same items I purchased 12 or 24 or 36 months ago, I see real inflation of 10% to 12% a year. Additionally, my electric bill has gone way up (even though I am using the same amount of electricity). My rent has gone way up (even though I live in the same place). My phone bill is higher. Well, you get the picture. Everything that I pay for now is pretty much the same basket of good I was purchasing a year ago but I am paying about 12% more.

Actually, I'm not exactly a kid. So I remember what they called highly inflationary periods in the 60's and 70's -- and I am experiencing the same thing now.
 

BCTTWR

EOG Dedicated
#5
Re: Are we having INFlation or DEFlation..???

Technically, we are in a deflationary environment as just about anything you can buy cost less today than 12 months ago. All the money that is being "helicoptered" into the economy is not about to create inflation any time soon, as nobody has any money, and if the do, they are turning to savers, thus inflation is not capable. With all major asset classes taking a beating in price and value, inflation is not about to rear its head anytime soon.
Do you buy groceries? Prices have really shot up in the last 12 months. All my house bills have risen.

When the Feds start printing money to pay for all this insane spending, inflation has to follow.
 
#6
Re: Are we having INFlation or DEFlation..???

Do you buy groceries? Prices have really shot up in the last 12 months. All my house bills have risen.

When the Feds start printing money to pay for all this insane spending, inflation has to follow.
Exactly my reaction.

And the most recent few years have really been a pain for me.

I recall in the 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's - that the officially reported government figures for inflation pretty much matched my own personal experience. But beginning sometime in the 90's - the extremely low figures that the government has been reporting year-after-year for over 15 years IN NO WAY MATCH my own experience - in terms of how much things that I buy - increase in price without pause.

The REAL rate of inflation has been much higher than the official figures for over a decade.

Putting aside investments like gold, real estate, the stock market, which are not everyday purchases for regular people -- the only consumer good that has experienced recent deflation is oil and the products that are made from oil, like gasoline.
 
#7
Re: Are we having INFlation or DEFlation..???

This shit was shoved into the oven by Reagan

was watched over and cooked by Clinton and icing on the cake was
delivered by Bush 43


09 and 10 .... not good for this country and the world as the Deriatives
Ponzi scam could sink the entire boat
 
#8
Re: Are we having INFlation or DEFlation..???

Technically, we are in a deflationary environment as just about anything you can buy cost less today than 12 months ago. All the money that is being "helicoptered" into the economy is not about to create inflation any time soon, as nobody has any money, and if the do, they are turning to savers, thus inflation is not capable. With all major asset classes taking a beating in price and value, inflation is not about to rear its head anytime soon.
In my opinion you are exactly right and the rest are wrong... They are just using prices of "selected items" not all items as a messure when that is also wrong... You are looking at the small ticketed items but the big ticketed items like cars and houses are down...

My friend thinks the way... He thinks we are having inflation because of the amount of money they are printing which is leading to an increase "IN MONEY SUPPLY" but what he does NOT factor in is all the "MONEY" that has disappeared from the "MONEY SUPPLY"... He tells me his portfolio is down well over 50% but thinks we are having INFlation because he has to pay .50 more for twinkees... Well if you didn't lose 3 million dollars .50 extra cents won't seem like such a big fuckin' deal would it..?

Home values, stocks, loss of jobs, CREDIT limits cut or cancelled, closing of MANY businesses, and many other things that contributed to HUNDREDS OF TRILLIONS of DOLLARS... YES that is DOLLARS which means the money supply that involves ALL MONEY has deflated IN A MAJOR WAY... The fed can print a trillion dollars tomorrow and it would still be a drop in the buckett... If the fed printed a ZILLION dollars and gave it to the banks to give as loans it wouldn't matter because very few would qualify to get the loan or wouldn't apply because opening a business is not a GAMBLE/RISK many are willing to take right now...

:smoking2:
 
#9
Re: Are we having INFlation or DEFlation..???

In my opinion you are exactly right and the rest are wrong... They are just using prices of "selected items" not all items as a messure when that is also wrong...
I hear you. And I certainly understand how money has been sucked out of the system, out of real estate, out of the stock market, out of businesses that disappeared, and that certainly applies here in Las Vegas where the locals found out how much construction contributes to the local economy -- and discovered it when that sector disappeared completely (causing our entire local economy to contract drastically overnight).

Actually, I think there is another factor affecting the availability of credit. Banks are applying all the money they are getting from the government to shore up their sorry looking balance sheets (as they write down billions in worthless assets). They worry about that first before they go looking for someone who qualifies for a loan.

But that is not what cheapseats wrote. He wrote "just about anything you can buy cost less today than 12 months ago."

Not correct. You have already listed things that cost less today than they did 12 months ago, but the vast majority of consumer goods and things that the poor spend their money on - are not cheaper. Another example on top of the ones I cite above: In this town, the poor ride the bus. The price to ride the bus just went up by 37% January 2009 in Las Vegas. Actually, when Jimmy Carter was the Pres., we had a name for something similar to this mess, Stagflation. Stagnation of the economy (no jobs, no growth) combined with inflation at the consumer level.

So the poor have drastically fewer job opportunities and everything they spend their few dollars on -- cost more. They don't invest in real estate, they don't play the stock market, etc. - you get the idea.
 

brucefan

EOG Dedicated
#10
Re: Are we having INFlation or DEFlation..???

I believe we are in massive DEFlation...

I'll give you bitches credit; this forum has a lot of good debate and interesting topics...
:smoking2:


INFLATION OR DOOMED , WOULD BE THE CORRECT ANSWER


Geithner Should Resign as Treasury Secretary

The biggest headline in the news so far this week has been S&P's decision to downgrade their U.S. credit outlook to negative. After S&P made their announcement, almost everybody in the mainstream media proclaimed it to be a "wake up call" for the U.S. government, saying that if they don't make a real effort to cut the budget deficit, a fiscal disaster awaits. Despite lowering the U.S. credit outlook to negative, S&P left the U.S. credit rating at AAA.

The real story in the media this week should be, how is it possible that the U.S. credit rating remains AAA? After all, AAA is the highest rating possible. Shouldn't a AAA credit rating be reserved for countries with budget surpluses, low levels of debt, and low levels of price inflation? Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was quick to say after S&P's announcement that there is "no risk" of the U.S. losing its AAA rating. NIA respectfully asks Mr. Geithner to resign from office for making those comments. How could there be "no risk" of the world's largest debtor nation losing its AAA rating?

As NIA first exposed in its critically acclaimed documentary 'Meltup', S&P, along with Moody's, rated mortgage-backed securities AAA during the mortgage crisis that didn't just decline in value, but went to zero. In our opinion, the credit ratings agencies have absolutely no credibility left and will be out of business in a few years. S&P and Moody's still rate U.S. debt AAA because they fear the negative backlash that would come immediately if they lowered its rating, which would undoubtedly include calls from members of Congress to take away their licenses to be ratings agencies in this country.

NIA believes the U.S. credit rating should be junk. Including unfunded liabilities and the backing of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, the U.S. currently has a real national debt that is five times higher than our GDP. There is no chance of the U.S. ever paying back its debts without printing the money and creating hyperinflation. There is no chance of the U.S. ever balancing its budget, without eliminating the so-called untouchable entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

Our nation has reached a point where it is paying out 90% of the money it raises each month from the sales of U.S. treasuries, just to pay back the holders of maturing U.S. treasuries their principle and interest earned. The U.S. needs to continuously sell larger amounts of new debt, just to stay afloat, so there is no conceivable way that any unbiased organization can possibly give the U.S. a credit rating of AAA. The only reason we haven't defaulted on our debts is the Federal Reserve's ability to create monetary inflation and the world's willingness to hoard U.S. dollars due to its status as the world's reserve currency.

Despite the euro-zone debt crisis with nations like Greece defaulting on their debt, over the past ten years, the U.S. dollar has fallen from being 70.7% of foreign exchange reserves down to 61.4%, while the Euro has risen from being 19.8% of foreign exchange reserves up to 26.3%. The other currency category, which includes currencies like the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar, has risen during the past decade from 1.2% to 4.4%. The world is clearly diversifying out of the U.S. dollar.

Not only is the demand for dollars declining as a percentage of foreign exchange reserves, but there are now calls for our largest creditor nation China to reduce their total foreign exchange reserve holdings. China's foreign exchange reserves have increased by $200 billion this year to over $3 trillion and are mostly invested in U.S. dollars. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said this week that, "Foreign exchange reserves have exceeded our country's rational demand, and too much accumulation has caused excessive liquidity in our markets, adding to the pressure of the central bank's sterilization." In other words, China is likely to begin selling their U.S. dollar reserves and accumulating real assets like gold and silver with this money. The biggest ever rally in precious metals is just around the corner, which means the U.S. dollar's purchasing power is about to plummet.

NIA constantly receives emails asking us if Paul Ryan's proposed budget were to be implemented instead of Obama's, would the U.S. be able to prevent hyperinflation. The truth is, both Obama's budget and Ryan's budget would leave us with just about the same national debt five years from now. The constant battles between the Democrats supporting Obama's budget and the Republicans supporting Ryan's budget are simply being used to distract Americans from the real issue, the Federal Reserve's monetization of our debt and the record $1.4 trillion in excess reserves that are currently parked at the Fed.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has just reached a record $2.65 trillion. However, excess reserves parked at the Fed are now rising even faster than the Fed's balance sheet. NIA believes that come later this year, the Federal Reserve is likely going to stop paying interest on excess reserves banks have parked at the Fed, in an effort to push this money into the economy. This high-powered money will multiply by as much as ten times as it circulates throughout the U.S. economy, increasing our money supply by $14 trillion. A rapid increase of our money supply by $14 trillion could potentially cause a run on the dollar, with the world rushing to dump their U.S. dollar reserves for just about any real asset they can get for them.

Inflation is beginning to spiral out of control even by the U.S. government's artificially low calculations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics just reported that the consumer price index (CPI) rose in March by 2.68% over a year ago, compared to the February increase of 2.11% and the November increase of 1.1%. Year-over-year CPI increases have risen 144% since November as a direct result of the Fed's destructive policies, yet the Fed continues to say that inflation is not a problem. Even though inflation is now way above the Fed's informal inflation target of 1.5% to 2%, the Fed continues to ignore the CPI and only looks at core-CPI, which excludes food and energy and is mainly based off of rents. All gains in U.S. retail sales are now solely due to inflation and all U.S. economic growth is phony. Any temporary decline in the unemployment rate is only a result of the distortions caused by the Fed's printing of money.

Gold has just surpassed $1,500 per ounce and silver has now broken $45 per ounce. These latest movements in gold and silver prices indicate that there is a major risk of hyperinflation breaking out as soon as the second half of 2011. Average U.S. gas prices are now $3.84 per gallon and are rapidly approaching the all time high of $4.12 per gallon from June of 2008. Unlike 2008, there are no leveraged up hedge funds buying oil futures contracts today. Oil prices are rising as a direct result of the Federal Reserve's zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing. Unless the Federal Reserve acts now to dramatically raise interest rates, $5 per gallon gas is possible by the end of 2011.

When gas prices reach $5 per gallon, there won't be a drop off in demand. It will only encourage the Federal Reserve to print more money so that Americans can afford $5 per gallon gas, which could push gas prices to $6 or $7 per gallon in 2012. Saudi Arabia is reducing oil production because they have to, their oil reserves have been overstated by 40% and they are past peak oil production. As bad as rising gas prices are for all Americans, they will be hurt by rising food prices even more. Inventories of gas are not as tight as food inventories, which are now at record lows for such agricultural commodities as corn. NIA has been warning about low agriculture inventories since its first documentary 'Hyperinflation Nation' and accurately predicted this past year's record rise in agricultural commodity prices in its October 30th, 2009, article "U.S. Inflation to Appear Next in Food and Agriculture".

NIA predicts the next major inflation crisis will be in college tuition prices. We are about to experience a record rise in student loan defaults as a result of rapidly rising food and gas prices. College tuitions are the one area of the U.S. economy, besides healthcare, that did not experience any decline during the financial crisis of 2008. Despite rapidly rising college tuition prices, the value of a college degree is declining at an even faster rate. NIA believes that by the year 2020, we will conservatively see 20% of American colleges and universities close its doors with enrollments in remaining colleges and universities declining by between 15% and 30%. NIA will expose the facts and truth about the upcoming American college education crisis in its upcoming documentary, 'College Conspiracy'. We are almost done producing 'College Conspiracy' and will be releasing more information about the hour long movie in the days and weeks to come
 
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