Bears

blueline

EOG Master
Special teams coordinator Chris Tabor will run the team meetings during Nagy's absence.

All NFL coaches must be vaccinated, and Nagy will require two negative tests 24 hours apart before he will be allowed to return.

The Bears currently have four players on the reserve/COVID-19 list with offensive tackle Elijah Wilkinson and linebacker Caleb Johnson being the latest to go on the list Sunday.

The others on the list are tight end Jimmy Graham and outside linebacker Robert Quinn, who is second on the team with 5.5 sacks.

Veteran running back Damien Williams was activated off the reserve/COVID-19 list before the Bucs game.
 

blueline

EOG Master
to get her kids to become fans of the bears Virginia only allowed them to have desert on Sunday if the Bears won
 

Valuist

EOG Master
We saw Kingsbury test positive for Covid and not even make the trip to Cleveland last week and they didn't miss a beat. And Stefansky (sp?) last year tested positive before the playoff game vs Pittsburgh, and once again, the Browns rolled the Streelers.

I can't imagine any circumstance where Nagy will be missed.
 

blueline

EOG Master
Nagy is the glue that hold this team together as evidenced by the big heart to heart talk he had with the team at the hotel in TPA...they went out and played hard for him
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I always chuckled at Nagy's laminated play-call sheet where in big letters he wrote, "BE YOU."

He's not holding that play sheet anymore.

I prefer Bill Belichick's pithy mantra: NO DAYS OFF.
 
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blueline

EOG Master
The mccaskey flight had an aborted landing at waukegan early monday morning.....how close to changing were the fortunes of chicago football
 

Heim

EOG Master
The TB score was very misleading. Fields handed them 3 touchdowns in Bear territory with
fumbles and INT. Nonetheless, coverage was good considering they never touched Brady.
 
Fields could be Rosen or he could be Allen. Who knows what happens next in these crap shoot reach for a QB moves.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
The TB score was very misleading. Fields handed them 3 touchdowns in Bear territory with
fumbles and INT. Nonetheless, coverage was good considering they never touched Brady.
I don't think it was misleading at all - They were not going to be competitive with Hicks out. They were overmatched at Cleveland, and this game was more of the same. One team is playing to win while the other is looking for positive moments. Why else are they kicking short FG's down 21? The Bears also tried to sell how they hung with TB in the 2H.
 
I don't think it was misleading at all - They were not going to be competitive with Hicks out. They were overmatched at Cleveland, and this game was more of the same. One team is playing to win while the other is looking for positive moments. Why else are they kicking short FG's down 21? The Bears also tried to sell how they hung with TB in the 2H.

Wow, that's insane. Ask any sharp what's the smart bet to make when a team is up by more than 3 scores at halftime. It starts with a "u" and ends with an "r".
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Wow, that's insane. Ask any sharp what's the smart bet to make when a team is up by more than 3 scores at halftime. It starts with a "u" and ends with an "r".
For sure. I think it was 3-0. TB was content running clock (good), while the Bears were content running 2-yard routes (very bad). They are not nearly this bad with Dalton, but he has a very low ceiling. Then again the Jets actually traded a draft pick for Joe Flacco.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Wow, that's insane. Ask any sharp what's the smart bet to make when a team is up by more than 3 scores at halftime. It starts with a "u" and ends with an "r".

When a team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.

This angle goes back to the late 90's, popularized by Nolan Dalla in 2000, more famous for his poker commentary.

 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
And now Bears WR Allen Robinson is complaining about Matt Nagy's poor use of QB Justin Fields in the preseason.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
There is NO correlation between leader of men and ATS success - unless they can be led into the end zone.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
I can see the Bears winning Sunday. Probably will be ugly though. A little surprised we don’t hear more about the SF HC and his job security.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Do Matt Nagy's inspirational text messages to Justin Fields on the morning of the game qualify as coaching?
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
When a team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.

This angle goes back to the late 90's, popularized by Nolan Dalla in 2000, more famous for his poker commentary.

Comp, how has that done in the last 10 years? I'm guessing pretty close to 50-50 now that the markets have adjsuted so hard to it.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Comp, how has that done in the last 10 years? I'm guessing pretty close to 50-50 now that the markets have adjusted so hard to it.

Haven't kept track for a while, I don't bet it blindly anymore, I try to handicap whether the team/coach that is ahead will use the clock in the 2H.

For the angle, for this season, 2021, I tallied 8-9-1 for 2H OV/UN/Push (Edit to add the Week 9 Thursday night game).
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Why wait until halftime to bet the angle?

If you spot a game where one side looks dead and non-competitive late in the first quarter, take a lead and bet the UNDER in live wagering.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Why wait until halftime to bet the angle?

If you spot a game where one side looks dead and non-competitive late in the first quarter, take a lead and bet the UNDER in live wagering.

The main reasons I see to bet at halftime instead of live wagering are:

1) Coaches have more time at the half to modify game plans and personnel to adjust to being ahead/behind by a lot. Cappers have more time to evaluate their bet.

2) Books tend to not model the new situation at the half and instead make a knee-jerk 2nd Half total of half the original total plus or minus a point or so.
 
The main reasons I see to bet at halftime instead of live wagering are:

1) Coaches have more time at the half to modify game plans and personnel to adjust to being ahead/behind by a lot. Cappers have more time to evaluate their bet.

2) Books tend to not model the new situation at the half and instead make a knee-jerk 2nd Half total of half the original total plus or minus a point or so.

2 doesn't happen anymore in these blowout games, precisely why the trend hasn't been a winner since you see crazy low numbers that are way below half the original total. I wouldn't blindly bet it either, but I will dabble on the under if its a home favorite in the lead.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Why wait until halftime to bet the angle?

If you spot a game where one side looks dead and non-competitive late in the first quarter, take a lead and bet the UNDER in live wagering.

That is if you don't fear getting freerolled. I only live bet between quarters and/or halftime. I don't trust the books. Too often I've hit the send only to see it buffer and buffer, and then the bet not accepted.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
That is if you don't fear getting freerolled. I only live bet between quarters and/or halftime. I don't trust the books. Too often I've hit the send only to see it buffer and buffer, and then the bet not accepted.

Or the line changes…


The dangers of live wagering.

The pinwheel spins and your bet is in purgatory.

Baseball has a natural break between innings and VALUIST made a good point about quarter changes in football and basketball.

At a recent Northwestern football game, the media timeouts lasted 3 minutes and 55 seconds.

I know because there's a clock on the scoreboard tracking the timeout.

Extra vig in live wagering is another negative.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
2 doesn't happen anymore in these blowout games, precisely why the trend hasn't been a winner since you see crazy low numbers that are way below half the original total. I wouldn't blindly bet it either, but I will dabble on the under if its a home favorite in the lead.

I would guess you have no hard numbers to back this assertion. Please post if you do since there can be anomalies due to the book used, but they probably won't change the data very much. Obviously, a few HT totals will have rather large deviations due to changing weather, key injuries or other factors.

Using consensus lines that are pretty accurate, I get the following results: Most of the "blowout" 2nd half lines are less than or equal to one point less than the closing total for the game divided by 2. The average deviation this year so far has been a little more than normal at -1.53 pts (including one HT line of -4.25 less than Total CL/2). Last year's (2020-21) deviation was -1.25 pts (again including one outlier of -6 pts) with the majority, 27, of the 52 "blowouts" <= one pt. less than Total CL/2.
 
I would guess you have no hard numbers to back this assertion. Please post if you do since there can be anomalies due to the book used, but they probably won't change the data very much. Obviously, a few HT totals will have rather large deviations due to changing weather, key injuries or other factors.

Using consensus lines that are pretty accurate, I get the following results: Most of the "blowout" 2nd half lines are less than or equal to one point less than the closing total for the game divided by 2. The average deviation this year so far has been a little more than normal at -1.53 pts (including one HT line of -4.25 less than Total CL/2). Last year's (2020-21) deviation was -1.25 pts (again including one outlier of -6 pts) with the majority, 27, of the 52 "blowouts" <= one pt. less than Total CL/2.
I leave that analysis to you. I recall multiple times where the 2nd half line was 2-2.5 points lower than half of the game total and immediately just passed on it. I found a few that were closer to half the total and bet them, I believe I went 3-2 on them but I didn't flag the situation so looking through my records I might be missing a bet or two. They were home favorites which I just presumed were better bets in that spot. It's not that common because I look for18 points up at half, not 15 so the sample size and data could be a little different.
 
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