Belmont Day card

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
IMO. the inner paths were bad at Churchill for both the Oaks and Derby day cards. Not just the rail but the inner 3 paths or so. So if you see Essential Quality was 4 wide on both turns and mathematically conclude he was the best horse in the Derby due to ground loss, keep in mind he was racing on the better part of the track. Some guy on a Wagertalk podcast thought the CD surface was "speed biased" yet only 3 wire jobs on the main track Derby day: one was Medina Spirit, who we know had a post race positive test, and Gamine, another Baffert runner who was in the 3-4 path most of the race but was life and death to win at 2/5 odds. Jackies Warrior did narrowly hold on as a big favorite in the Pat Day Mile. Domestic Spending and Colonel Liam dead heated in the Turf Classic, but Liam had a good trip while Domestic Spending had anything but a clear trip and was much the best, IMO.
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
IMO. the inner paths were bad at Churchill for both the Oaks and Derby day cards. Not just the rail but the inner 3 paths or so. So if you see Essential Quality was 4 wide on both turns and mathematically conclude he was the best horse in the Derby due to ground loss, keep in mind he was racing on the better part of the track. Some guy on a Wagertalk podcast thought the CD surface was "speed biased" yet only 3 wire jobs on the main track Derby day: one was Medina Spirit, who we know had a post race positive test, and Gamine, another Baffert runner who was in the 3-4 path most of the race but was life and death to win at 2/5 odds. Jackies Warrior did narrowly hold on as a big favorite in the Pat Day Mile. Domestic Spending and Colonel Liam dead heated in the Turf Classic, but Liam had a good trip while Domestic Spending had anything but a clear trip and was much the best, IMO.

In the 10th I boxed 4 and 8
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
Here's how I'm playing the Pic 4 on races 8-11

race 8: 4,6.8,9,10
race 9: 1 and 6
race 10: 4
race 11 (Belmont) 2 Essential Quality, 3 Rombauer 6 Known Agenda 7 Rock Your World
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I need #7 Rock Your World in the Belmont Stakes.

He was my Derby pick, but he was eliminated at the start.

No mistakes today in a wire-to-wire win.

As Jonathon Kinchen said earlier today, "I'm confident until I lose."

Good line.
 

Heim

EOG Master
I would think Charlie's and Domestic speed figs out of this race are identical. Sure Domestic ran
huge down the stretch but Charlie did go 22 and change and 46 and change, pressed and still
had something late.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I would think Charlie's and Domestic speed figs out of this race are identical. Sure Domestic ran
huge down the stretch but Charlie did go 22 and change and 46 and change, pressed and still
had something late.


I think you mean Charlie and Essential Quality?
 

Heim

EOG Master
I think you mean Charlie and Essential Quality?

Yes. It would help if I had the right horse. :)

Brittany's dad Peter was a good trainer (and modestly priced). I had a few friends that
used him. I don't know if he's still training.
 
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