Blitz Picks WNBA

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Bene, both the under are winning!!:cheers

:cheers Cheers, Luigi!

YTD: 41-31-1 (+9.30u)

I'm on the road today and think I'll pass on the games--I don't see anything I love. Indiana/Washington is sure to be a low-scoring affair, but the total's gotten bet down so much at my book that I think it's too late to jump in.

GL today!

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

yes Marnie, you talk about the under i seen this morning and i like

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indiana's last 12 games[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"][/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games on the road[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"][/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing on the road against[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"][/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana[/TD]

</tbody>[/TABLE]


At my book the line is always 145,5 like this morning so i try it

Wash Indi under 145,5

For the rest, i think i like minnie because the spread is not so high...

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Bravo, Luigi! Great call on the under and Minny squeaked it out for you. Nicely done!
:cheers

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Ciao Marni, thank you...

Last evening everything got right...and had a litle luck in the minnie game

Anyway, noe are out on pinnacle the odds for the match of tomorrow and indiana is -8..think this spread is good and think indi will win in dd, because is in a very hot moment and because has won by 21 in new york 2 weeks ago...!
Hope this line is not a trap, seems too low and to simple to cover....

There is some absence in indiana??

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Hi Luigi!
I just checked the injury report and don't see anything unusual there. I think Indy will never be picked to win by very much since they have such a low scoring offense. At home they average around 70 pts, whereas NY averages 73 pts. on the road. NY is one of those teams that plays better on the road than at home (lately, anyway). But, as you point out, Indy is playing great these last few weeks, whereas NY is not. I did watch NY at Chicago the other night and NY played a decent game (considering the Sky has one of the best teams in the league). NY was leading at half-time and Chicago only covered the spread at the very end of the game. Not sure what I'm going to do here, yet--but lean Indy, for sure.

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

The more I look at this game, the more I think the initial lines seem about right. Indy by 8 or so and low scoring in general. I'm getting to the point where if I don't see any initial edge I tend to put my wallet down. I'll watch the game and see how the teams look and maybe come in at half-time. I feel like NY will either get blown out or keep it real close--that seems to be their MO these days.

Might start looking at Wed. games.

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Marni,
if i see last matches of indiana:

[TABLE="class: head_to_head h2h_home, width: 550"]
<tbody>

[TD="align: center"]21.07.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name"]Washington Mystics D[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FFEBA8"]

Indiana Fever D

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

52 : 65

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]20.07.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FFEBA8"]

Indiana Fever D

[/TD]
[TD="class: name"]Washington Mystics D[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

77 : 70

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]14.07.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name"]New York Liberty D[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FFEBA8"]

Indiana Fever D

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

53 : 74

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FBF6D9, align: center"]11.07.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag, bgcolor: #FBF6D9"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FBF6D9"]Indiana Fever D[/TD]
[TD="class: name, bgcolor: #FBF6D9"]

Minnesota Lynx D

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FBF6D9, align: center"]

62 : 69

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, bgcolor: #FBF6D9, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]07.07.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FFEBA8"]

Indiana Fever D

[/TD]
[TD="class: name"]Connecticut Sun D[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

78 : 66

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, align: center"][/TD]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

and last 5 of NY:

[TABLE="class: head_to_head h2h_away, width: 550"]
<tbody>

[TD="align: center"]21.07.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name"]

Chicago Sky D

[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FFEBA8"]New York Liberty D[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

80 : 69

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FBF6D9, align: center"]18.07.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag, bgcolor: #FBF6D9"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FBF6D9"]New York Liberty D[/TD]
[TD="class: name, bgcolor: #FBF6D9"]

Chicago Sky D

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FBF6D9, align: center"]

55 : 75

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, bgcolor: #FBF6D9, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]14.07.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FFEBA8"]New York Liberty D[/TD]
[TD="class: name"]

Indiana Fever D

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

53 : 74

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]10.07.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FFEBA8"]

New York Liberty D

[/TD]
[TD="class: name"]Seattle Storm D[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

66 : 57

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]07.07.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FFEBA8"]New York Liberty D[/TD]
[TD="class: name"]

Chicago Sky D

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

64 : 93

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, align: center"][/TD]

</tbody>[/TABLE]


And if i see the previous matches of indiana at home:

[TABLE="class: head_to_head h2h_home, width: 550"]
<tbody>

[TD="align: center"]20.07.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FFEBA8"]

Indiana Fever D

[/TD]
[TD="class: name"]Washington Mystics D[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

77 : 70

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]11.07.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FFEBA8"]Indiana Fever D[/TD]
[TD="class: name"]

Minnesota Lynx D

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

62 : 69

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]07.07.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FFEBA8"]

Indiana Fever D

[/TD]
[TD="class: name"]Connecticut Sun D[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

78 : 66

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FBF6D9, align: center"]01.07.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag, bgcolor: #FBF6D9"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FBF6D9"]

Indiana Fever D

[/TD]
[TD="class: name, bgcolor: #FBF6D9"]Seattle Storm D[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FBF6D9, align: center"]

71 : 63

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, bgcolor: #FBF6D9, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]29.06.13[/TD]
[TD="class: flag"]WNB[/TD]
[TD="class: name highTeam, bgcolor: #FFEBA8"]

Indiana Fever D

[/TD]
[TD="class: name"]Tulsa Shock D[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

80 : 69

[/TD]
[TD="class: winLose, align: center"][/TD]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

I really feel the gut to put one unity on indiana -7,5

Hope indiana want to play a real match: if play as did in the last games, i'm sure will win in DD

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

I see many good cappers on the UNDER but the line at 138 think is not much safe and a litte low...after that, true last games of indiana and ny finished under, but

The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana

what you think about?

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Yes--I think Indy -7.5 should be a nice play. I've gotten more conservative as the season has progressed, but if I were to jump in I'd take that.

I was looking for the under right away, but 138 just feels too low, so I'm going to pass. The over is starting to look tempting, but I don't trust either team enough offensively to bite.

GL!

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

YTD: 41-31-1 (+9.30u)

I'm passing on tonight's game but will start adding plays I like for tomorrow:

Chicago Sky/Washington Mystics Under 156? (-110)

This game starts at 11am eastern time. Enough said.

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Adding for tomorrow (Wed.)

Phoenix Mercury/Minnesota Lynx Under 170? (-110)

It was just announced Diana Taurasi is out of for Phoenix. Griner, Penny Taylor and Kizer are all questionable. This total will get bet down quickly.

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Ahhhhhh Indiana play well only 1st half with +9 but reached to lose.... :shoot:

for today good for you Marni could take the under at 170 noe is only at 165 everywere and don't know is still good line....

i like minnie again, little scared of the points, but think if the want, they can win wit a 20 points difference

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

YTD: 42-32-1 (+9.20u)

So-so day. I got involved in some sides that all pushed--a little anti-climactic. Hope you had a decent day, Luigi. Still looking at games for thursday.

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

New York Liberty/San Antonio Silver Stars Under 149? (-110)

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

YTD: 43-32-1 (+10.20u)

The first half of the season is officially in the books.

Happy all-star break!

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Ciao marni, yesterday i was on the road all the day for work: went out the house al 7.00 and came back at 19.00 dead tired....couldn't read the games with calm...

very good results, you are really very good... now the games will come back wednsday....after with calm i will write some impressions and thought about this first half of the season....about betting, the saeson will go till 15 september but, as will explain, i will stop betting wnba the first days of september...

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Here i'm to write some thoughts about 1st half of wnba league

1) last season was more easy to cap wnba: simply, there was more numbers of home victory with points covered;

2) last season the big teams were unbeatable at home...remember la sparks and minnie had won at home quite all the times by 20 or 30 points...very good home teams were atlanta, indiana and seattle;

3) this season is very risky to take home teams with big spread to cover...last 2 weeks the dogs quite always covered...also with big team like the sparks ecc..;

4) this season is very risky to bet on team with 10/12 or plus points to cover;

5) The sign UNDER is predominant...this sign hits at around 60%...last 5 games, 4 were under;

6) like always in the wnba, the movement lines of the books can often help to understand what to bet;

7) i will quit at the beginning of september, because once the big teams take place at the playoff, they simply quit to play....last years, we have lose a lot of money for this reason...i no want to lose again

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Thanks for sharing this, Luigi. This is my first season capping the WNBA and it's really helpful hearing how this season compares to others. I'm very curious to see how the second half of the season plays out, as the first half has been full of surprises (for me at least). I find I'm getting more conservative with the plays I make as the season progresses.


Here's what I like for tomorrow (WED):

New York Liberty/Washington Mystics Under 149 (-110)


Normally, this total would look about right to me for these teams--however I'm counting on the girls getting off to a slow start after not having played for a week (most of them, at least). As always, I'm torn whether to wait and see if I can get a better number or grab this one. I'll go ahead and grab now. I haven't been the best at reading the market this year, that's for sure, but I have to think I'm not the only one that might look for a low scoring game.

YTD: 43-32-1 (+10.20u)

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Very good Marni, the UNDER is the right play, i think:

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>

[TD="width: 100%"][/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 6 games[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"][/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 7 games when playing Washington[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New York's last 9 games when playing on the road against Washington[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"][/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing New York[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"][/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing at home against New York[/TD]

</tbody>[/TABLE]


Very good you have grabbed the under 149...now is everywhere at 147 but on my italian local is out now only at 145,5....so, i see the line all the day, but think i pass...too risky...

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

YTD: 43-32-1 (+10.20u)

Today:

New York Liberty/Washington Mystics Under 149 (-110) (see above)


Tomorrow (Thurs):

Indiana Fever +1? (-110) vs Connecticut Sun
Phoenix Mercury -1 (-110) vs Seattle Storm

I think the Indy/Phoenix lines will move, so get while the getting's good.

GL!

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Ciao Marni, the game of yesterday was a big surprise: they scored a lot and NY won by dd.....this kindof result, for example, is typical of september....

anyway, for today i'm agree with you...probably will take the ml in both games...i'm little scared about pho: is very difficult to predict if they play good or bad,who play ecc....

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Yeah, NY came out hot yesterday and stayed hot. I'll be curious to see if they can play back to back games at that level or if that was a one off-er. My guess is the latter, but we'll see.

I'll be out of town all weekend so I'm crunching some numbers for tomorrow's and Sunday's games this morning. I don't see anything I like tomorrow, yet. But I want to spend some more time looking at last five game stats.

Griner is still ? for tonight and Delle Donne is ? for tomorrow night. Both girls sat out of the all-star game. Taurasi is listed as starting tonight--she was suspended for one game (last week) so hopefully she'll come out firing on all cylinders.

GL!

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

tomorrow there are 3 big favourite with big spread....i'm little bored to lose for the points...

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

indiana opened at +1...this afternoon reached -2, and now is going to turn back to ml....these lines are crazy....

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Tamika Catching is out for Indy. urggg....

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

YTD: 43-35-1 (+6.9u)

Three losses in a row. I?m taking Friday off. Might be back later this weekend.

GL with whatever plays you choose!

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

From the break i have took 3 bad loss because were all not predictable....so, this kind of results happened last years in september, but now we are at the 2nd day of august only!!

Indiana is really redicolous team: up by 12 at the beginning of 4th quarter, was still able to lose the game!!

hope this wnba games turned predictable soon..if not, think is better to keep our little money won and quit betting on last part of this league.....also because this month start the big european football legue...

Said this, probably rest too today, i'm not in the right mood for wnba

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

43-35-1 (+6.90u)

Nothing for today.

Sat:

New York Liberty -3? -110* vs Connecticut Sun

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Ciao marni, you are week end away but i'm at home, here there are quite 40 degrees hot in italy now!!!

for tonight i like one play, the UNDER of Minnie:


[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle's last 10 games[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"][/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"][/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games when playing on the road against Minnesota[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"][/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"][/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing at home against Seattle[/TD]

[TD="width: 100%"]

The lines yes is slowed down from yesterday but i think of 1point...so

under 146,5 for 1 unity

[/TD]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Yesterday complete disaster:

not only the under written above no hitted, but 5 minutes before the 1st game parker was annunced out, so on pinnacle the quote of wash in 30 seconds passed from -3,5 to -1...so i take quite big wash +3,5 on my local....at the end of the story, la without parker won by dd...

same thing happened with tulsa...40 minute before the start, the quote of tulsa on pinnacle passed in 1 minute from +1 to -1,5....on my local the quote was always + 1,5 so i took also this pick big...of course tulsa lose and not covered...

this one was the worst night of the season

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Sounds like a rough weekend, Luigi. Yuck...sorry to hear it.

I handicap all the games, and then keep track of how accurate my lines are compared to the final scores and last week was one of the worst of the season for me. All the plays I posted last week lost and thankfully I stayed away from other games that I thought looked good on paper, because I would have lost those as well.

I'm going to keep handicapping, but I'm not going to risk any money until my lines start matching up with the results again. I've worked on all 4 games for tomorrow and will watch them all to see how things go. As I'm writing this I see that Delle Donne has been upgraded to probable for tomorrow, so Chicago -5 looks like an attractive play. I expect that line will start moving.

GL--Luigi! There's still plenty of time in the season, but I'm in no rush to jump back in at the moment.

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

yes, Marni, you make good to wait and see.....i think is better do the same tilo things back to normal..last week was an epic disaster and i lose the few euros i gained, with fatigue, in 2 months of wnba...

about leans, like under in the early game

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

I'll jump back on board this week. Last week was pretty decent in terms of results. Nothing for the game tonight, but I'll likely be back in the next day or two.

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Ciao Marni, forthe tonight game i like under: sea and chihave done under in all quite last games.
this morning the line was at 145....now at 142...on my local is still at145,5...i give a try

 

[Luigi1]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

the under was winner for half a point but was happened yesterday was incredible: sea was winner + 13 at the endof3rd half but finished to lose for 13 points!!! the score of the 4th quarter was 32-6 for chi. never seen a shit like this, never in manyyears o bets!!!

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

43-36-1 (+5.8u)

Tulsa -6.5 (105)

You still out there Luigi? I'm going to post very occasional plays. I've been staying involved, but not doing well enough with my plays to post them (breaking even, but not much more). I like this one.
We'll see. Those crazy girls have played some outrageous basketball this season!

Hope you've been well!

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Tulsa is now at -5.5 (-105) at 5Dimes. Two unpredictable teams, but Tulsa is generally decent at home and I'm always looking for spots to go against San Antonio.

If anyone wants to chime in, feel free!

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

I like all four favorites to win today and am waiting to see where lines go. Here is one I'm grabbing right now:

Chicago -7.5 (-105)

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Favorites went 3-1 yesterday and covered easily.

I'm not touching today's game. Two crappy, unpredictable teams = easy way to lose money in the WNBA. Though I do have a theory that when two bad teams (i.e., teams with losing records) play each other in the WNBA, just play the ML dog and you'll probably be up money at the end of the season. I'd be curious to go back through the games and see if this theory holds up. I bet it does, but I'm still staying away from today's game.

 

[marniblitz]

Re: Blitz Picks WNBA

Another no-play day in the WNBA for me.

Normally I would take LA -2 without hesitation, because Atlanta has looked awful as of late. But this is a statement game for ATL. Win or start to kiss post-season aspirations goodbye. And do it home. I don't trust ATL enough to back them though, and LA has finally managed to become a good road team, so I'll just watch and enjoy my Labor Day.