A few minutes back on Twitter, @CircaSports
Circa Million Week 02 Lines Up
- Thread starter Squarepants
- Start date
railbird
EOG Master
what was your record week 1?
As I said before, I don't give out my picks, alias, etc., with the etc. including, e.g., weekly results or cumulative standings.
I'm not selling anything. I'm putting a substantial sum of my own money down in these contests. For me to win money, with no other goal.
I don't give any competitive advantage to anyone.
Including any information from which the identity of my alias ultimately could be gleaned.
In a different format: (note that the short favorites in the ATL-GB & HOU-IND games are switched vis-a-vis the SuperContest lines)
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2023
1 EAGLES* 5:15 PM 2 VIKINGS +6
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2023
3 CHARGERS 10:00 AM 4 TITANS* +3
5 FALCONS* 10:00 AM 6 PACKERS +1
7 TEXANS* 10:00 AM 8 COLTS +1
9 LIONS* 10:00 AM 10 SEAHAWKS +4.5
11 BUCCANEERS* 10:00 AM 12 BEARS +2.5
13 BILLS* 10:00 AM 14 RAIDERS +8.5
15 CHIEFS 10:00 AM 16 JAGUARS* +3
17 BENGALS* 10:00 AM 18 RAVENS +3.5
19 GIANTS 1:05 PM 20 CARDINALS* +4.5
21 49ERS 1:05 PM 22 RAMS* +7.5
23 COWBOYS* 1:25 PM 24 JETS +8.5
25 BRONCOS* 1:25 PM 26 COMMANDERS +3.5
27 DOLPHINS 5:20 PM 28 PATRIOTS* +2.5
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2023
29 SAINTS 4:15 PM 30 PANTHERS* +3
31 BROWNS 5:15 PM 32 STEELERS* +2.5
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2023
1 EAGLES* 5:15 PM 2 VIKINGS +6
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2023
3 CHARGERS 10:00 AM 4 TITANS* +3
5 FALCONS* 10:00 AM 6 PACKERS +1
7 TEXANS* 10:00 AM 8 COLTS +1
9 LIONS* 10:00 AM 10 SEAHAWKS +4.5
11 BUCCANEERS* 10:00 AM 12 BEARS +2.5
13 BILLS* 10:00 AM 14 RAIDERS +8.5
15 CHIEFS 10:00 AM 16 JAGUARS* +3
17 BENGALS* 10:00 AM 18 RAVENS +3.5
19 GIANTS 1:05 PM 20 CARDINALS* +4.5
21 49ERS 1:05 PM 22 RAMS* +7.5
23 COWBOYS* 1:25 PM 24 JETS +8.5
25 BRONCOS* 1:25 PM 26 COMMANDERS +3.5
27 DOLPHINS 5:20 PM 28 PATRIOTS* +2.5
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2023
29 SAINTS 4:15 PM 30 PANTHERS* +3
31 BROWNS 5:15 PM 32 STEELERS* +2.5
The selection deadline is not until 4PM PT Saturday and the contestants' selections are posted on the Circa website at or approaching 7PM PT on Saturday:
Circa Sports Million V Pro Football Contest | Circa Sports
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Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
A very sound way of doing things.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Guessing 'Pants is between satisfied and somewhat satisfied with week 1 outcome.
Or, possibly, using a pillow to muffle my sobs so that the neighbors won't hear . . . keep guessing.
Either way, it's only Week 1, with a long haul to go. You don't win these contests by getting caught up dwelling on the prior week, either way. It's over. It's Week 2 now, with a lot of work to do and another set of pick deadlines coming on Saturday.
Either way, it's only Week 1, with a long haul to go. You don't win these contests by getting caught up dwelling on the prior week, either way. It's over. It's Week 2 now, with a lot of work to do and another set of pick deadlines coming on Saturday.
railbird
EOG Master
who is your proxy?
railbird
EOG Master
i like the redskins
For long term observers, Squarepants' reticence about his picks is a relatively newly acquired allergy.
From 2010 to 2018 he entered the SC, tallying 43.5, 41, 45.5, 44.5, 39, 52, 39.5 ,49, and 56.5 points for a win rate of 54.0%., ranking roughly in the top 68 of long-term entrants, i.e. only those who used the same contest handle and who had at least 4 years (>=340 picks) (much higher ranking for the subset of 7 years or more).
Gosh . . . folks spending a bunch of time on what I'm doing/have been doing in the past.
One consistent factor is that I didn't discuss or "release" my Squarepants picks before I put them in, after which they were public once posted by the book. And IIRC the Squarepants alias was the only known alias that I used consistently from year to year, as I used a different alias in the Gold (the aptly named "ThereCanBeOnlyOne") and Circa ("Wouldn'tYouLikeToKnow," lol). And I may have used different aliases over and above Squarepants once multiple entries were allowed in the Classic, as I focused more over the years (this is my 20th year doing contests) on flying under the radar outside of the Squarepants alias.
I had considered going fully incognito before the 2018-19 win, but that win gave me the ready occasion to follow through fully.
Once I won in the 2018-19 year, I retired the Squarepants alias (as well as the others "outed" by the win) as that definitely would draw too much attention in and after 2019-20 -- as everyone gloms on to the last year's winner, despite the not-good track record of last-year-winners, ex Fezzik in 2008 to 2009 or so.
Once I retired the old Squarepants alias, I then was able to go fully incognito across the whole board, which to me provides a competitive advantage (e.g., folks -- like in this thread -- waste time trying to figure out who's who, and to the extent that they think they know your play, they can't apply that knowledge down the stretch if they don't know which alias is yours).
If I win again, the thereby outed aliases then also will be retired; and I'll go to the bullpen and pull up some new aliases from a list that I keep for that purpose. (One of my other time-wasters over and above posts like this in-season.)
* * * * *
FWIW, my twitter profile reads in pertinent part: "721-595-44 54.79% in #SuperContest '04-19, on best of 2 entries in years where rules allowed." If anyone wants verification as to that -- in the offseason -- I can identify the retired aliases, and I also have all my original registration paperwork to verify that the aliases in fact were mine in dusty boxes going back through 2004. I do think it's fair to grade on the highest one of the multiple entries, as the contestant definitely is trying to put their best foot forward with the entry that has the best equity.
But I'm not selling anything, so it's not a rabbit hole that I'd run down in-season.
* * * * *
When I worked at federal court, security officers, judges, and anyone else who ran into me in the hall would ask me when I came in on Monday mornings how I did the past weekend and/or how I was doing season long. They ultimately learned that I wasn't going to say anything specific. Over and above needing to get in and get to work so that I could catch MNF at 5 and get back to handicapping, I didn't want to go through a gauntlet (literally, I had to clear through security to get in the door) of looking backwards and dwelling/emoting when I was needing to shift to the next week.
High or low, you've got to put it behind you Sunday night once you tally where you're at (subject possibly to MNF) and move on to the next week. That's actually a bit harder to do after a 5-0 than an 0-5 week, but I tried to get right back on the horse regardless each week, trying to stay even-keeled and focused on the week ahead rather than behind. It's a long 17 and now 18 weeks, longer still if you make it into an emotional rollcoaster. Even a high season-long percentage of plays don't come in each specific week necessarily close to the ultimate percentage, so it's best to not get too caught up in the random distribution of results from week to week.
* * * *
In all events, regardless of how much consistency and/or evolution there has or has not been in my approach over time, what I said above is what I'm doing. I'm happy to discuss general contest issues here -- that's what had me drop back by late this offseason -- but I'm not discussing the 2023 specifics of my past or present picks, standings, my alias, and/or anything else that could give other contestants any possible competitive advantage in the event that I'm in contention competing with them coming down the stretch.
E.g., Tony Salinas got leapfrogged in the SuperContest years back by someone who perfectly reverse engineered his picks (well, he picked only dogs, so . . . .) and went full contra on his exact picks in a perfectly executed "Hail Mary" strategy. As best as I can, I want to leave them guessing in Week 18 if I'm able to get in the lead spot -- including as to who the heck the lead alias in fact is, and especially as to what the heck that unknown leader is likely to be doing.
We're not playing for matchsticks.
One consistent factor is that I didn't discuss or "release" my Squarepants picks before I put them in, after which they were public once posted by the book. And IIRC the Squarepants alias was the only known alias that I used consistently from year to year, as I used a different alias in the Gold (the aptly named "ThereCanBeOnlyOne") and Circa ("Wouldn'tYouLikeToKnow," lol). And I may have used different aliases over and above Squarepants once multiple entries were allowed in the Classic, as I focused more over the years (this is my 20th year doing contests) on flying under the radar outside of the Squarepants alias.
I had considered going fully incognito before the 2018-19 win, but that win gave me the ready occasion to follow through fully.
Once I won in the 2018-19 year, I retired the Squarepants alias (as well as the others "outed" by the win) as that definitely would draw too much attention in and after 2019-20 -- as everyone gloms on to the last year's winner, despite the not-good track record of last-year-winners, ex Fezzik in 2008 to 2009 or so.
Once I retired the old Squarepants alias, I then was able to go fully incognito across the whole board, which to me provides a competitive advantage (e.g., folks -- like in this thread -- waste time trying to figure out who's who, and to the extent that they think they know your play, they can't apply that knowledge down the stretch if they don't know which alias is yours).
If I win again, the thereby outed aliases then also will be retired; and I'll go to the bullpen and pull up some new aliases from a list that I keep for that purpose. (One of my other time-wasters over and above posts like this in-season.)
* * * * *
FWIW, my twitter profile reads in pertinent part: "721-595-44 54.79% in #SuperContest '04-19, on best of 2 entries in years where rules allowed." If anyone wants verification as to that -- in the offseason -- I can identify the retired aliases, and I also have all my original registration paperwork to verify that the aliases in fact were mine in dusty boxes going back through 2004. I do think it's fair to grade on the highest one of the multiple entries, as the contestant definitely is trying to put their best foot forward with the entry that has the best equity.
But I'm not selling anything, so it's not a rabbit hole that I'd run down in-season.
* * * * *
When I worked at federal court, security officers, judges, and anyone else who ran into me in the hall would ask me when I came in on Monday mornings how I did the past weekend and/or how I was doing season long. They ultimately learned that I wasn't going to say anything specific. Over and above needing to get in and get to work so that I could catch MNF at 5 and get back to handicapping, I didn't want to go through a gauntlet (literally, I had to clear through security to get in the door) of looking backwards and dwelling/emoting when I was needing to shift to the next week.
High or low, you've got to put it behind you Sunday night once you tally where you're at (subject possibly to MNF) and move on to the next week. That's actually a bit harder to do after a 5-0 than an 0-5 week, but I tried to get right back on the horse regardless each week, trying to stay even-keeled and focused on the week ahead rather than behind. It's a long 17 and now 18 weeks, longer still if you make it into an emotional rollcoaster. Even a high season-long percentage of plays don't come in each specific week necessarily close to the ultimate percentage, so it's best to not get too caught up in the random distribution of results from week to week.
* * * *
In all events, regardless of how much consistency and/or evolution there has or has not been in my approach over time, what I said above is what I'm doing. I'm happy to discuss general contest issues here -- that's what had me drop back by late this offseason -- but I'm not discussing the 2023 specifics of my past or present picks, standings, my alias, and/or anything else that could give other contestants any possible competitive advantage in the event that I'm in contention competing with them coming down the stretch.
E.g., Tony Salinas got leapfrogged in the SuperContest years back by someone who perfectly reverse engineered his picks (well, he picked only dogs, so . . . .) and went full contra on his exact picks in a perfectly executed "Hail Mary" strategy. As best as I can, I want to leave them guessing in Week 18 if I'm able to get in the lead spot -- including as to who the heck the lead alias in fact is, and especially as to what the heck that unknown leader is likely to be doing.
We're not playing for matchsticks.
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Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
railbird
EOG Master
those giants backers deserve to be 6 feet under the ground, dumb idea
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
You’re always going to have a lucky week or two in these. I couldn’t take the Giants on the road though.
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Same with Cleve backers
Woodrow Wilson
EOG Dedicated
bump for week 3