REASON FOR PICK: 6* #339 BRIGHAM YOUNG over AIR FORCE
The contemporary college football marketplace is dominated by power ratings, which explains why a game like this can be set in the wrong range year after year, and how we can continually take advantage. It is simply an awful matchup for Air Force all the way around, which the scoreboard results continue to confirm.
Although the Brigham Young reputation is largely built on the passing game, Bronco Mendenhall is still a defense-first guy at heart. As such, by the time he got to Provo he was already well-versed at diagnosing the Air Force option attack, from his years as the New Mexico DC. He came to B.Y.U. as DC in 2003, and while it took a season to get his schemes into play, from his final season as DC in 2004, to his five full years as the head coach, this series domination has been remarkably consistent – it has been a 6-0 SU and ATS run, with every one of the games won on the field by at least 14 points, including a 3-0 SU and ATS on this field in which the Cougars won the scoreboard by 50 over those 180 minutes, and beat the spread by a collective 42 points.
Why does it happen? First because Mendenhall brings excellent game plans against this offense, including an easy 17-point win LY in which Air Force was held to 300 yards. Second is that this is a most difficult opponent for the Falcons to prepare for – they do not have the passing QB’s on the roster to emulate what the Cougars do best, nor the stock of WR’s to run those pass plays in practice. As such, what has been a respectable defense in recent years has not held B.Y.U. to less than 31 points in any of those last six games, and now with Matt Wallerstedt replacing Tim DeRuyter as DC, the challenge becomes even more daunting. Not only do they have to prepare for the different looks that Jake Heaps and Riley Nelson bring at QB, but they may have to do it without both starting CB’s, with Reggie Rembert having to leave Saturday’s game with a neck injury, and Anthony Wright problematic with a rib injury. Neither was able to practice on Monday, and even if they are able to return later in the week they will not be at full speed, and will have missed valuable prep time for the offense they will be up against.
This offense is a DC’s nightmare. No only are both Nelson and Heaps excellent talents, but they can bring different skills. Both threw for 131 yards in Saturday’s win over Washington, but Nelson is capable of making a lot happen with his legs as well, while Heaps brings a special passing touch and can attack deep down the field. It leads to a continuation of the B.Y.U. series dominance, and when one program has consistently handled the other the way the Cougars have controlled these Falcons, this is absolutely the wrong price point.
REASON FOR PICK: 6* #307 GEORGIA TECH over KANSAS
We do not believe that the marketplace has the right read on either the talent level of the Kansas program or Turner Gill’s development as a head coach, which gives us a more than fair price to play a game that should break wide open.
Can the Jayhawks really be as bad as that opening 6-3 loss to a North Dakota State team coming off of a 3-8 season, when they managed only 15 first downs and 293 yards of offense? Yes. First note that this is a major rebuilding situation in multiple ways, off of a bitter divorce to end the Mark Mangini years. The psyche must particularly be re-built, coming off of the meltdown to end the 2009 campaign, when they went 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS down the stretch, and Saturday’s loss was a fitting continuation of that. Keep in mind that even with their successes under Mangini, this was a program that could not run the ball or play defense, but they were able to overcome that with the rare level that the Todd Reesing to Dezmon Briscoe & Kerry Meier passing game produced, with each of those two receivers having over 200 career catches, a true rarity. So Gill and an all-new coaching staff inherit leftovers from a team that was #101 in the nation in rushing LY, #76 in total defense, #85 in scoring defense, and showed little from the special teams (#78 in net punting, #83 in punt returns, #68 in kickoff returns), all without the leadership that LY’s passing game brought. This cupboard is bare, not just in terms of talent, but also because of the staggering emotional punch that Mangino’s final season brought.
As for Gill, he got a great deal of publicity for what was viewed as a “breakout” season for his Buffalo team in 2008, but as time passes that will go down as one of the most extreme autumns of bounces we will ever chart. That was a team that won the M.A.C. and made it to a bowl game despite being significantly out-gained, but went +16 in TO’s prior to the bowl, with three wins coming in OT and another by just two in regulation. In truth Gill has not proven much yet, and we are also not fans of his prime assistants, with OC Chuck Long having failed miserably at San Diego State, and with DC Carl Torbush scratching for recent jobs after not adapting well to the modern game (that is how yet get relegated to a three-year stint at Carson-Newman). So it is no surprise that not only did Kansas show little in terms of talent on Saturday, but confusion as well. A good example is the QB battle between Kale Pick and Jordan Webb, neither of which is ready to run a team yet, and Gill’s alarming lack of confidence in his earlier comments this weak speaks volumes. - "Obviously, we made a decision in practice based on the things that occurred and he (Pick) deserved to be the starter at that time. We just hoped things would work out." And who will start this week? "Don't know. We're gonna talk about it here. We've got plenty of time. We've got practice here on Tuesday. ... I don't know whether we'll make a decision on Tuesday, whether we'll make one game day or what." Not exactly the kind of decisiveness a young and struggling team needs. And the QB’s do not get aided by the complete lack of a ground game - KU's top two running backs, Angus Quigley and Deshaun Sands, rushed for a combined 32 yards on 17 attempts on Saturday. Now, more from Long during the week - ”We’re not set in stone with every position yet. That’s the bottom line with our offense. We don’t have a decisive 11 yet. We’re still working towards chemistry. It may take a little time to get to that point.”
So Kansas is not good, and not ready. Those are both difficult combinations when Georgia Tech comes to town. Paul Johnson’s option packages can be brutal to prepare for at the best of times, but they are a huge headache early in the season for a disorganized defense under a new coach, and one that is accustomed to facing those pass-happy Big 12 offenses. Kansas lacks both depth and speed in the two back lines on defense, where the Yellow Jackets can create so many mismatches that can lead to big plays, and under these circumstances we wonder just how hard Gill and Torbush can game plan for this one anyway – they will not face an attack anywhere near this style the rest of the season, and have a short week ahead before they face an entirely different approach from Southern Miss on Friday. The focus may be much more on long-term development than trying to stop this particular opponent.
With Josh Nesbitt back at QB and a deep RB corps, Johnson now has almost all of his playbook in place at Tech. He and his staff (look for Al Groh to be a great fit at DC) hold major edges over their Jayhawk counterparts, and note what happens when Johnson has edges in a game – Georgia Tech is 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS as non-bowl favorites in his first two seasons, when the opposition has limited time to prepare, and it has been a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS as road chalk, beating the spread by 67 points in the process.
The contemporary college football marketplace is dominated by power ratings, which explains why a game like this can be set in the wrong range year after year, and how we can continually take advantage. It is simply an awful matchup for Air Force all the way around, which the scoreboard results continue to confirm.
Although the Brigham Young reputation is largely built on the passing game, Bronco Mendenhall is still a defense-first guy at heart. As such, by the time he got to Provo he was already well-versed at diagnosing the Air Force option attack, from his years as the New Mexico DC. He came to B.Y.U. as DC in 2003, and while it took a season to get his schemes into play, from his final season as DC in 2004, to his five full years as the head coach, this series domination has been remarkably consistent – it has been a 6-0 SU and ATS run, with every one of the games won on the field by at least 14 points, including a 3-0 SU and ATS on this field in which the Cougars won the scoreboard by 50 over those 180 minutes, and beat the spread by a collective 42 points.
Why does it happen? First because Mendenhall brings excellent game plans against this offense, including an easy 17-point win LY in which Air Force was held to 300 yards. Second is that this is a most difficult opponent for the Falcons to prepare for – they do not have the passing QB’s on the roster to emulate what the Cougars do best, nor the stock of WR’s to run those pass plays in practice. As such, what has been a respectable defense in recent years has not held B.Y.U. to less than 31 points in any of those last six games, and now with Matt Wallerstedt replacing Tim DeRuyter as DC, the challenge becomes even more daunting. Not only do they have to prepare for the different looks that Jake Heaps and Riley Nelson bring at QB, but they may have to do it without both starting CB’s, with Reggie Rembert having to leave Saturday’s game with a neck injury, and Anthony Wright problematic with a rib injury. Neither was able to practice on Monday, and even if they are able to return later in the week they will not be at full speed, and will have missed valuable prep time for the offense they will be up against.
This offense is a DC’s nightmare. No only are both Nelson and Heaps excellent talents, but they can bring different skills. Both threw for 131 yards in Saturday’s win over Washington, but Nelson is capable of making a lot happen with his legs as well, while Heaps brings a special passing touch and can attack deep down the field. It leads to a continuation of the B.Y.U. series dominance, and when one program has consistently handled the other the way the Cougars have controlled these Falcons, this is absolutely the wrong price point.
REASON FOR PICK: 6* #307 GEORGIA TECH over KANSAS
We do not believe that the marketplace has the right read on either the talent level of the Kansas program or Turner Gill’s development as a head coach, which gives us a more than fair price to play a game that should break wide open.
Can the Jayhawks really be as bad as that opening 6-3 loss to a North Dakota State team coming off of a 3-8 season, when they managed only 15 first downs and 293 yards of offense? Yes. First note that this is a major rebuilding situation in multiple ways, off of a bitter divorce to end the Mark Mangini years. The psyche must particularly be re-built, coming off of the meltdown to end the 2009 campaign, when they went 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS down the stretch, and Saturday’s loss was a fitting continuation of that. Keep in mind that even with their successes under Mangini, this was a program that could not run the ball or play defense, but they were able to overcome that with the rare level that the Todd Reesing to Dezmon Briscoe & Kerry Meier passing game produced, with each of those two receivers having over 200 career catches, a true rarity. So Gill and an all-new coaching staff inherit leftovers from a team that was #101 in the nation in rushing LY, #76 in total defense, #85 in scoring defense, and showed little from the special teams (#78 in net punting, #83 in punt returns, #68 in kickoff returns), all without the leadership that LY’s passing game brought. This cupboard is bare, not just in terms of talent, but also because of the staggering emotional punch that Mangino’s final season brought.
As for Gill, he got a great deal of publicity for what was viewed as a “breakout” season for his Buffalo team in 2008, but as time passes that will go down as one of the most extreme autumns of bounces we will ever chart. That was a team that won the M.A.C. and made it to a bowl game despite being significantly out-gained, but went +16 in TO’s prior to the bowl, with three wins coming in OT and another by just two in regulation. In truth Gill has not proven much yet, and we are also not fans of his prime assistants, with OC Chuck Long having failed miserably at San Diego State, and with DC Carl Torbush scratching for recent jobs after not adapting well to the modern game (that is how yet get relegated to a three-year stint at Carson-Newman). So it is no surprise that not only did Kansas show little in terms of talent on Saturday, but confusion as well. A good example is the QB battle between Kale Pick and Jordan Webb, neither of which is ready to run a team yet, and Gill’s alarming lack of confidence in his earlier comments this weak speaks volumes. - "Obviously, we made a decision in practice based on the things that occurred and he (Pick) deserved to be the starter at that time. We just hoped things would work out." And who will start this week? "Don't know. We're gonna talk about it here. We've got plenty of time. We've got practice here on Tuesday. ... I don't know whether we'll make a decision on Tuesday, whether we'll make one game day or what." Not exactly the kind of decisiveness a young and struggling team needs. And the QB’s do not get aided by the complete lack of a ground game - KU's top two running backs, Angus Quigley and Deshaun Sands, rushed for a combined 32 yards on 17 attempts on Saturday. Now, more from Long during the week - ”We’re not set in stone with every position yet. That’s the bottom line with our offense. We don’t have a decisive 11 yet. We’re still working towards chemistry. It may take a little time to get to that point.”
So Kansas is not good, and not ready. Those are both difficult combinations when Georgia Tech comes to town. Paul Johnson’s option packages can be brutal to prepare for at the best of times, but they are a huge headache early in the season for a disorganized defense under a new coach, and one that is accustomed to facing those pass-happy Big 12 offenses. Kansas lacks both depth and speed in the two back lines on defense, where the Yellow Jackets can create so many mismatches that can lead to big plays, and under these circumstances we wonder just how hard Gill and Torbush can game plan for this one anyway – they will not face an attack anywhere near this style the rest of the season, and have a short week ahead before they face an entirely different approach from Southern Miss on Friday. The focus may be much more on long-term development than trying to stop this particular opponent.
With Josh Nesbitt back at QB and a deep RB corps, Johnson now has almost all of his playbook in place at Tech. He and his staff (look for Al Groh to be a great fit at DC) hold major edges over their Jayhawk counterparts, and note what happens when Johnson has edges in a game – Georgia Tech is 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS as non-bowl favorites in his first two seasons, when the opposition has limited time to prepare, and it has been a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS as road chalk, beating the spread by 67 points in the process.
