REASON FOR PICK: 4* #130 COLORADO
We had to sit back and let the markets do their thing here, but now that -7’s are common on game day it is time to get in play here. Colorado brings more talent, more depth and better coaching, but the Buffaloes were dealt some difficult cards to open this season, having to play at Hawaii and that vaunted passing game despite having all new starters in the secondary, and then getting a difficult challenge vs. California last week. But despite losing note how well they played vs. the Golden Bears, with a commanding advantage of 582-370 in total offense. Now they get a chance to step way down in class, with veteran QB Tyler Hansen continuing that terrific early rhythm with explosive WR Paul Richardson (14 catches for 433 yards and four TD’s already), while Rodney Stewart will find plenty of running lanes against an already depleted Colorado State defense.
The Rams are showing no signs of progress under Steve Fairchild. Off of back-to-back 3-9 seasons, including a 24-3 drubbing vs. Colorado on this field LY, this is a rudderless program. They were outplayed in escaping at weak New Mexico in the opener, there is not much of a running game to aid the development of young QB Pete Thomas, and the defense has suffered two major losses already, first top pass rusher Broderick Sargent, and now LB Mychal Sisson, the latter the beating heart of those defense. A group that was nothing special now becomes extremely vulnerable without those playmakers, and they have a difficult time getting the Colorado offense off the field this afternoon.
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REASON FOR PICK: 5* #145 TEXAS TECH
One of our favorite long-term axioms comes into play here - ”Most truly awful teams are even worse than they appear to be.” There is a reason for that – as hideous as a team like New Mexico can look, with a 2-24 SU under Mike Locksley, and 16 of those SU losses by 20 points or more, the Lobos are actually worse. The key is that on precious few occasions do they ever have to take the best punch from the opposition, which usually has things under such control that they coast with a big lead, and substitute liberally to stay fresh for more important games. Most of those big defeats could easily be much worse, like last week’s 52-3 thrashing at Arkansas, when the Razorback starters were off the field midway through the third quarter (and that was a game in which New Mexico lost to the spread by 14 points despite a +2 TO differential, a major negative). Yet even with that factor working for them, the Lobos are just 6-14 ATS taking double figures under Locksley. Even when the opponent brings little focus, the games are still ugly routs. Like LY’s 52-17 Texas Tech romp on this field, despite the fact that the Red Raiders were both off of a short practice week after beating S.M.U. the previous Sunday, and also had a major look-ahead to Texas immediately on deck.
So fast forward to this week, and take note of the setting. Texas Tech was off last week, and only has a home game vs. Nevada on deck. That means that there is absolutely no distraction, and that in fact for once a team will be seriously game-planning for the Lobos. That is a rather frightful thought. And note that in games like this we actually prefer to be laying a road favorite – because Tommy Tuberville is limited to his traveling squad, it is not as easy to hold back as it would be for a home game, where he can put the entire roster on the field. As part of that miserable ATS run, New Mexico is 2-8 ATS as a double-figure home dog under Locksley, in part because the opponents can not get down to their 3rd or 4th string players to help to keep it close.
Once again Texas Tech brings an explosive offense, this time the key coming up front, where all five OL starters return from LY, meaning plenty of time for QB Seth Dodge to settle in to a rhythm. Meanwhile New Mexico might show some “experience” in the pre-season annuals because of the appearance of so many returning starters, but note that only eight players have retained their starting spots from LY, and that there are only eight SR’s on the two-deep. This is a team lacking savvy and veteran leadership both from the coaching staff and from the players, and there is precious little home-field advantage given the low crowd counts. With Lubbock just a little over 300 miles from Albuquerque, do not be surprised if Tech has enough fans to make this close to a neutral setting in terms of crowd noise, which also helps to break this one wide open.
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