REASON FOR PICK: 4* #387 AUBURN
(3:30)
You have a National Championship under your belt, open 3-1 in S.E.C. play, including key wins over South Carolina and what is your reward? To be made an underdog of more than three full TD’s this week. It shows that the markets are not fully grasping the last couple of recruiting classes that Gene Chizik has put together, nor a staff of assistant coaches that rival any in the land, and also how L.S.U. is being perceived entirely the wrong way.
You will read from many sources these days how Sports Books are getting their comeuppance on Saturday’s this year, with the elite teams continue to bash the pointspreads. The top eight teams in this week’s BCS standings are a remarkable 41-9 ATS. And now the punditry begin talking about why it happens – with the prospect of several teams finishing unbeaten this season, they have to go for “style points” in order to grab that potential spot in the championship game. And while that does indeed matter around the rest of the nation it DOES NOT in the S.E.C., where Alabama and L.S.U. know that margins are of no consequence. Just win your games, and you play for the title. This is nothing new for Les Miles, and at the very time that he is being projected among those coaches that may be running up a score, he is focused on nothing more than winning and moving on. Perhaps no coach has shown less of an interest in going beyond the “W” than Miles, who now sits at an amazing 4-19 ATS as an S.E.C. home favorite since taking over in Baton Rouge.
So did the Miles pattern change the past two weeks, when his Tigers covered big numbers vs. Florida and Tennessee? No. Those games were bereft of tempo, finishing with offensive snap counts of 111 and 118, the only time all season any team has played back-to-back games of sub-120. And L.S.U. ran the ball 100 times, while only throwing 32 passes. But the Tigers were +4 in TO’s, which helped to break those games open, part of their +13 for the full season. That TO ratio hides the fact that this offense has only reached 100 yards once, and now will be without top RB Spencer Ware, who has been suspended.
The flip side here is that while Auburn is scrapping and growing, the tempo is also changing. The last three weeks in S.E.C. play it has been 162 runs vs. 66 passes, and the combined offensive snap count vs. Florida on Saturday was 118. That deliberate play is obviously a big asset when backing a big underdog, and with Clint Moseley getting the start at QB, there will be no desire to speed this one up. It means a game in which the gap in athletes is nowhere near the price point, nor will there be the kind of pace needed for the favorite to ever get near the level of domination being called for.
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REASON FOR PICK: 4* #191 WISCONSIN Under
We rarely find a Total higher than 50 posted with defenses of this caliber. And it is even more rare to see the projections this high when the pace is going to be so slow. That makes it easy to get into play.
If you did not know better when watching Ohio State, you would think that Woody Hayes was in charge again, not interim HC Luke Fickell. An offense that lacks experience and chemistry in the passing game has basically bypassed that route and become land-locked, with 92 running plays vs. only 22 passes over the last two games. That is significant not just for the ratio, but for the fact that there were only 114 snaps, which shows how Fickell, a true DC at heart wants to play it. And we are going to see more of the same here, with a bye week helping to shape the offense even more about the running skills of QB Braxton Miller. Meanwhile a passing game that has badly missed WR DeVier Posey just does not have the tools to open up. So it is all about running the ball, playing solid defense and working field position – the latter keyed by P Ben Buchanon.
The Wisconsin game plan? The same thing, of course. In their Big 10 showdowns vs. Nebraska and Michigan State it was 91 runs vs. 41 passes, and while the scoreboard showed that there were 37 points allowed last week the defense was much better than that – nearly half of them came on a safety, a blocked punt that was returned for a TD, and then that memorable 44-yard TD pass on the final play. Under Brett Bielema the four head-to-head meetings in this series have played to a 41.3, or 10 points below the market projections, and if anything we see the pace being even slower this time.
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REASON FOR PICK: 6* #144 AUBURN
(7:00 Eastern)
These are troubled times for Houston Nutt at Ole Miss, where the Rebels have lost 10 straight S.E.C. games, the highest count for them in 79 years of league play. And they are not just losing, but getting rolled – in an 0-4 conference slide to open this season they have been out-scored by 87 points, and out-gained by a frightening 987 yards. It goes from bad to worse here, as they not only run into a difficult matchup, but also face a team that brings a chip on their shoulder that will not let up.
While we can expect Mississippi to listlessly walk through the remainder of the schedule, Auburn brings a young roster that will compete and grow until the final whistle, and there are some outstanding pieces emerging in the mix, courtesy of back-to-back excellent recruiting classes. And having already faced the likes of L.S.U., Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas and Florida, with four of those games coming on the road (has anyone played a tougher road schedule?) those young players have been growing up on the job. It also now helps to get WR Trovon Reed back to full health, and we may even see Emory Blake back at WR this week as well.
Where this one truly breaks open is that special focus from the Auburn coaching staff. There has been bad blood between OC Gus Malzahn and Nutt for several years, after Malzahn believed that he was “used “ by Nutt at Arkansas. He was hired as OC largely in a package deal that also brought four players from his dominant Springdale High School team, and was then relegated to a lower spot on the totem pole once he got to Fayetteville. The relationship did not last long and had many bitter moments, and he was off to Tulsa following that lone season, while Nutt ended up in Mississippi. In their first encounter LY the Auburn offense laid a 51-31 beating on the Rebels in Oxford LY, rolling to 572 yards, and while there has obviously been a drop without Cam Newton note that much of that is a direct result of the schedule, and the WR injuries. Now they get to step down in class against a Rebel defense that has allowed every S.E.C. opponent to rush for over 200 yards, and also allowed all to throw for over 200 except for Vanderbilt, which did not have to pass much in an easy 30-7 rout.
Look for the Auburn energy and focus to take control right from the start, and with next week off there will be no holding back. That means a run-out vs. an opponent that does not bring the will to compete for the full 60 minutes.
(3:30)
You have a National Championship under your belt, open 3-1 in S.E.C. play, including key wins over South Carolina and what is your reward? To be made an underdog of more than three full TD’s this week. It shows that the markets are not fully grasping the last couple of recruiting classes that Gene Chizik has put together, nor a staff of assistant coaches that rival any in the land, and also how L.S.U. is being perceived entirely the wrong way.
You will read from many sources these days how Sports Books are getting their comeuppance on Saturday’s this year, with the elite teams continue to bash the pointspreads. The top eight teams in this week’s BCS standings are a remarkable 41-9 ATS. And now the punditry begin talking about why it happens – with the prospect of several teams finishing unbeaten this season, they have to go for “style points” in order to grab that potential spot in the championship game. And while that does indeed matter around the rest of the nation it DOES NOT in the S.E.C., where Alabama and L.S.U. know that margins are of no consequence. Just win your games, and you play for the title. This is nothing new for Les Miles, and at the very time that he is being projected among those coaches that may be running up a score, he is focused on nothing more than winning and moving on. Perhaps no coach has shown less of an interest in going beyond the “W” than Miles, who now sits at an amazing 4-19 ATS as an S.E.C. home favorite since taking over in Baton Rouge.
So did the Miles pattern change the past two weeks, when his Tigers covered big numbers vs. Florida and Tennessee? No. Those games were bereft of tempo, finishing with offensive snap counts of 111 and 118, the only time all season any team has played back-to-back games of sub-120. And L.S.U. ran the ball 100 times, while only throwing 32 passes. But the Tigers were +4 in TO’s, which helped to break those games open, part of their +13 for the full season. That TO ratio hides the fact that this offense has only reached 100 yards once, and now will be without top RB Spencer Ware, who has been suspended.
The flip side here is that while Auburn is scrapping and growing, the tempo is also changing. The last three weeks in S.E.C. play it has been 162 runs vs. 66 passes, and the combined offensive snap count vs. Florida on Saturday was 118. That deliberate play is obviously a big asset when backing a big underdog, and with Clint Moseley getting the start at QB, there will be no desire to speed this one up. It means a game in which the gap in athletes is nowhere near the price point, nor will there be the kind of pace needed for the favorite to ever get near the level of domination being called for.
--
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #191 WISCONSIN Under
We rarely find a Total higher than 50 posted with defenses of this caliber. And it is even more rare to see the projections this high when the pace is going to be so slow. That makes it easy to get into play.
If you did not know better when watching Ohio State, you would think that Woody Hayes was in charge again, not interim HC Luke Fickell. An offense that lacks experience and chemistry in the passing game has basically bypassed that route and become land-locked, with 92 running plays vs. only 22 passes over the last two games. That is significant not just for the ratio, but for the fact that there were only 114 snaps, which shows how Fickell, a true DC at heart wants to play it. And we are going to see more of the same here, with a bye week helping to shape the offense even more about the running skills of QB Braxton Miller. Meanwhile a passing game that has badly missed WR DeVier Posey just does not have the tools to open up. So it is all about running the ball, playing solid defense and working field position – the latter keyed by P Ben Buchanon.
The Wisconsin game plan? The same thing, of course. In their Big 10 showdowns vs. Nebraska and Michigan State it was 91 runs vs. 41 passes, and while the scoreboard showed that there were 37 points allowed last week the defense was much better than that – nearly half of them came on a safety, a blocked punt that was returned for a TD, and then that memorable 44-yard TD pass on the final play. Under Brett Bielema the four head-to-head meetings in this series have played to a 41.3, or 10 points below the market projections, and if anything we see the pace being even slower this time.
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REASON FOR PICK: 6* #144 AUBURN
(7:00 Eastern)
These are troubled times for Houston Nutt at Ole Miss, where the Rebels have lost 10 straight S.E.C. games, the highest count for them in 79 years of league play. And they are not just losing, but getting rolled – in an 0-4 conference slide to open this season they have been out-scored by 87 points, and out-gained by a frightening 987 yards. It goes from bad to worse here, as they not only run into a difficult matchup, but also face a team that brings a chip on their shoulder that will not let up.
While we can expect Mississippi to listlessly walk through the remainder of the schedule, Auburn brings a young roster that will compete and grow until the final whistle, and there are some outstanding pieces emerging in the mix, courtesy of back-to-back excellent recruiting classes. And having already faced the likes of L.S.U., Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas and Florida, with four of those games coming on the road (has anyone played a tougher road schedule?) those young players have been growing up on the job. It also now helps to get WR Trovon Reed back to full health, and we may even see Emory Blake back at WR this week as well.
Where this one truly breaks open is that special focus from the Auburn coaching staff. There has been bad blood between OC Gus Malzahn and Nutt for several years, after Malzahn believed that he was “used “ by Nutt at Arkansas. He was hired as OC largely in a package deal that also brought four players from his dominant Springdale High School team, and was then relegated to a lower spot on the totem pole once he got to Fayetteville. The relationship did not last long and had many bitter moments, and he was off to Tulsa following that lone season, while Nutt ended up in Mississippi. In their first encounter LY the Auburn offense laid a 51-31 beating on the Rebels in Oxford LY, rolling to 572 yards, and while there has obviously been a drop without Cam Newton note that much of that is a direct result of the schedule, and the WR injuries. Now they get to step down in class against a Rebel defense that has allowed every S.E.C. opponent to rush for over 200 yards, and also allowed all to throw for over 200 except for Vanderbilt, which did not have to pass much in an easy 30-7 rout.
Look for the Auburn energy and focus to take control right from the start, and with next week off there will be no holding back. That means a run-out vs. an opponent that does not bring the will to compete for the full 60 minutes.